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Why the Liberty are pulling ahead in WNBA championship odds

Courtney Vandersloot, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones have continued to step up for the Liberty in the second half of the season. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

The New York Liberty have flipped the script.

When the teams met in June for the first time this season, a lopsided Aces win gave Las Vegas a leg up in the 2023 WNBA championship conversation. Then, it was New York’s turn to deliver a blow, winning their second matchup on Aug. 6 by a wide margin.

And on Tuesday night, the Liberty took a 2-1 lead in the season series with an 82-63 victory in the Commissioner’s Cup championship game. They hoisted the trophy, pocketed bonuses, secured money for Callen-Lorde (the charity of the team’s choosing) and brought a new school of thought to the table. While the Commissioner’s Cup championship doesn’t count toward the regular season standings, it matters in the grand scheme of how these teams match up.

And in that bigger picture, the pieces of the superteam are finally meshing, and cracks are beginning to appear within the Aces. In the ongoing battle of the WNBA superteams, New York is ahead.

The Liberty are now the favorites to win the WNBA championship.

Both teams have stars. Both teams have former WNBA players and title winners at the helm. And after some workshopping from New York to start the season, both teams have offenses that flow.

But both teams don’t have a bench, and that’s where the issues are arising for Las Vegas.

There were similar concerns about Las Vegas last season, but they didn’t end up materializing as the Aces went on to win their first WNBA championship. Head coach Becky Hammon knew the bench could be an issue going forward, so she signed veteran forward Alysha Clark to add depth alongside Kiah Stokes and Riquna Williams in a three-person bench unit.

Those numbers quickly dwindled as an injury to free-agent acquisition Candace Parker moved Stokes into the starting lineup. Williams missed the beginning of the season with a back injury and will likely not return to the Aces after being arrested for domestic violence last month. That leaves Clark as the sole rotation player coming off the bench.

While she has been consistent as a sixth player for Las Vegas, averaging 6.8 points per game and shooting 43% from beyond the arc, having just one player established on the bench is a concern going forward. Clark also missed a game with a sore back last week, which brings up a worrisome question for the Aces: What happens if someone else gets hurt?

Las Vegas would have to turn to Cayla George or Kierstan Bell, who have played limited minutes and mostly in garbage time. Against New York on Tuesday, Hammon chose not to play George until the final two minutes, and Bell struggled in her 11 minutes of action.

Nearly every issue the Aces had in that game stemmed from the short bench, while New York’s non-starters provided a major lift.

Las Vegas was clearly tired during the game, as evidenced by a 33% shooting performance that included just 19% shooting from beyond the arc. The Aces also grabbed just four rebounds in the second half and were outperformed 49-28 on the glass.

With Parker in the starting lineup, Stokes is able to provide a rebounding lift off the bench, but without Parker, she’s tasked with a much bigger load. Stokes grabbed 10 boards on Tuesday for more than a third of the Aces’ total production.

Parker’s absence also affects A’ja Wilson. Last season’s MVP is averaging 21.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest, but in her last two games against New York, those numbers decreased to 9.0 and 6.0. Stokes is not a scoring threat, averaging 2.5 points per game this season. That means New York — or other teams for that matter — can send multiple defenders at Wilson without worrying about leaving Stokes.

The guards are suffering from the short bench, too. Gray played 37 minutes against New York, Jackie Young played 35, and Kelsey Plum was in for 33 minutes. Not only does the small rotation make for tired legs, it also limits options. When New York found mismatches, like Betnijah Laney in the post, Las Vegas had to weather the storm with their smaller guards since there were no options for help off the bench.

Meanwhile, New York has perhaps the strongest bench in the WNBA, and it showed on Tuesday. In just 14 minutes of action, Marine Johannès erupted for 17 points, a game-high for both teams, and helped stretch the floor by knocking down five 3-pointers.

Kayla Thornton was also key in the win. The forward played 16 minutes, finishing with eight points, four rebounds and two assists.

The Liberty didn’t need anyone else to secure the win, but coach Sandy Brondello has even more options. Center Stefanie Dolson is still getting acclimated after an injury, but the nine-year WNBA player brings veteran experience to the Liberty bench after having a starting role in her previous nine seasons with the Mystics, Sky and Liberty. They also have Nyara Sabally, an athletic forward in her first season out of Oregon, guard Jocelyn Willoughby, and 6-foot-10 Han Xu back in the fold after playing in China.

In the battle of the superteams, only one has a super bench. That puts New York ahead as the season winds down and head toward the playoffs.

Eden Laase is a Staff Writer at Just Women’s Sports. Follow her on Twitter @eden_laase.

As Season Tip-Off Approaches, WNBA Roster Cuts Come Down to the Wire

rookie kate martin at wnba training camp with the las vegas aces
A top-notch rookie class means tough decisions for WNBA teams faced with finalizing 12-player rosters. (Ian Maule/NBAE via Getty Images)

Teams around the WNBA are under pressure to finalize their 12-player rosters before Monday's league-enforced deadline.

Teams must cut their 2024 rosters down to just 12 spots from as many as 18 training camp players. And while this year’s WNBA draft class is undoubtedly rife with talent, only 18 draftees remain rostered ahead of Monday's final cuts. Last year, just 15 of the league’s 36 draftees made it onto their team’s opening-day squad. 

And it's not just rookies. Veteran players are also on the chopping block, even former title-winners: On Thursday, the Minnesota Lynx waived 2021 WNBA champ Ruthy Hebard.

But with every wave of cuts, players that survive dismissal inch closer to claiming a coveted roster spot. The Las Vegas Aces have already reached that magic number 12, opening the door for draft picks Dyaisha Fair and Kate Martin to stay on with the reigning champs.

Additionally, Dallas has whittled their training camp group down to 12. Fifth overall pick Jacy Sheldon and undrafted rookie Jaelyn Brown continue to remain in the mix. 

Other teams, meanwhile, still have decisions to make. Seattle currently lists 13 players, while others like New York still have a full 18 players in training camp. It’s likely that the final preseason game will tip roster decisions one way or another as coaching staffs continue to evaluate performance and playing time. 

But being cut doesn't mean the end of the road for everyone. Should players be waived, they can still be signed to short-term hardship contracts with teams carrying injured players on their permanent rosters. 

The 2024 WNBA season kicks off on Tuesday, May 14th.

Angelina, Morgan Weaver Avoid Season-Ending Injuries

nwsl Portland Thorns forward Morgan Weaver
Portland Thorns forward Morgan Weaver has been cleared of season-ending injury concerns. (Troy Wayrynen/USA TODAY Sports)

Two NWSL teams avoided some major setbacks on Thursday, as both Portland’s Morgan Weaver and Orlando’s Angelina were cleared of season-ending injuries after undergoing scope procedures earlier this week. 

Angelina has been described by her club as "week-to-week," while Weaver has been placed on Portland’s 45-day injury list. 

The Thorns won their May 4th game without Weaver 2-1, continuing their season turnaround, while the Pride remain one of two unbeaten teams in the NWSL.

In other injury list news, Christen Press posted a video on Thursday of her running with a trainer and doing drills, providing further updates on her road back from a June 2022 ACL tear.

Angel City coach Becki Tweed has told reporters that Press is back with the team, but has not issued a timetable for her return to the field.

New WNBA Team Reportedly Coming to Toronto in 2026

wnba 2023 canada exhibition game in toronto
After seeing huge success with preseason games in Canada, the WNBA is setting its sights north of the border. (Jordan Jones/NBAE via Getty Images)

A group led by Toronto billionaire Larry Tanenbaum will bring a new WNBA franchise to Canada, CBC Sports reported early this morning. 

Set to begin play in 2026, the team will be owned and operated by Tanenbaum's Kilmer Sports Inc. Tanenbaum is a minority owner and chairman of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, which owns the Toronto Maple Leafs, Raptors, Toronto FC, Argos, and Marlies. He originally explored an expansion team via MLSE, but was turned down by other members of the board. 

The Toronto addition will be the WNBA's 14th team. It follows the Bay Area's WNBA Golden State, which will debut in 2025. 

An official announcement is expected May 23rd in Toronto, according to reports. 

"We continue to engage in productive conversations with interested ownership groups in a number of markets but have no news to report at this time," a WNBA spokesperson said in a statement. Tanenbaum's Kilmer Sports group, meanwhile, told CBC Sports that his organization has “no update at this time.”

In April, commissioner Cathy Engelbert said that Toronto was among the cities being considered for WNBA expansion.

The WNBA has a growing footprint in Canada, as the league's held wildly successful exhibition games north of the US border for the last two seasons. 

In 2023, a preseason matchup between Chicago and Minnesota sold out Toronto’s 19,800-capacity Scotiabank Arena. This past Saturday, the league drew more than 16,000 fans to Edmonton for a preseason showdown between LA and Seattle.

The Toronto team will reportedly play at Coca-Cola Coliseum, an 8,000-seat arena which is currently home to the Marlies as well as Toronto’s PWHL franchise.

Las Vegas Aces Make White House Return After Back-to-Back WNBA Titles

president biden with las vegas aces a'ja wilson at white house 2023 wnba championship celebration
President Joe Biden welcomed A'ja Wilson and the rest of the 2023 WNBA Champion Aces back to the White House. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

The Las Vegas Aces took to the White House yet again on Thursday to celebrate their 2023 WNBA championship victory

The decorated team was hosted by President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and First Lady Jill Biden, marking the first time the Bidens have welcomed the team personally.

Last year, Harris hosted the Aces after the Bidens were unable to attend due to a last minute conflict. Harris applauded the team for their 2022 win, pointing to the "grit and determination" they showcased en route to their WNBA Finals win over Connecticut. 

The Aces won back-to-back championships in 2023, becoming the first WNBA franchise to repeat the feat since 2002. More impressively, they did so without 2022 Finals MVP Chelsea Gray and center Kiah Stokes, both of whom were sidelined with injuries for the title-clinching Game 4. Star forward A’ja Wilson ended up claiming the 2023 Finals MVP honors.

Following the team’s White House visit, the Aces will visit Wilson’s alma mater South Carolina for an exhibition game against the Puerto Rico women's national basketball team. According to head coach Becky Hammon, the unconventional matchup came about when other WNBA teams lacked interest in facing the reigning champs in preseason play.

"We just started kind of building from there," Hammon told the Las Vegas Review Journal. "It’s really cool for players to go home, and that’s where she’s from. She’s the centerpiece of our whole organization."

Kelsey Plum jokingly called Wilson the "mayor of South Carolina" before citing the trip as an opportunity to build team chemistry ahead of their season opener against Phoenix on Tuesday.

"We have some new pieces, and we’re just trying to figure out where our rhythm is," Plum said, referring to recent roster prospects like Iowa grad Kate Martin, among others. "Because when the season starts, it happens fast."

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