The opening weekend of the WNBA season is in the books, and we’ve already been treated to several fun performances. Elena Delle Donne scored 21 in her much-anticipated return, Jordin Canada posted 21 points and eight assists in her first game as a Spark to lead L.A. to an overtime road win over the Sky, and Rhyne Howard burst onto the scene with a stat line never before achieved in a WNBA debut.

For some of you, those performances may have put you well on your way to a 1-0 start to your fantasy career (or, if your opponent was the beneficiary, an 0-1 start). With ESPN’s addition of a season-long fantasy WNBA game, the first of its kind in major women’s sports, loads of fantasy players are in the midst of their first-ever WNBA matchup this week.

In this space throughout the season, we’ll regularly break down some of the key aspects of the fantasy world. Subsequent editions may look a little different once the season is in full swing and more players return from their overseas commitments, but it’s never too early to analyze what we’ve seen so far.

Risers

The landscape in any sport is constantly fluctuating throughout the season due to factors such as injuries, hot or cold streaks and rotation adjustments. Later on, we’ll be able to give you the biggest risers and fallers from the previous week’s ESPN fantasy rankings, but for now we can use ESPN’s preseason rankings for our baseline. Everyone has played only one or two games, so make of these what you will.

Yvonne Turner: 112 spots (current 59th, preseason 171st)

Turner’s inclusion on this list may be mostly about how shorthanded the 0-2 Lynx are (her teammate Jessica Shepard checks in right behind her at fourth).

Nevertheless, Turner deserves a lot of credit for stepping in and providing coach Cheryl Reeve with some ball-handling after not having played in the league since 2019.

Dana Evans: 128 spots (current 5th, preseason 133rd)

If ESPN only counted each player’s best quarter, Evans would probably be the highest-ranked player in the league right now. The second-year Sky guard spontaneously combusted in the third quarter of Chicago’s season opener, pouring in 17 points to go along with three assists and two steals.

The 24 fantasy points Evans recorded in the quarter were more than she had ever logged in any game and alone would put her just outside of the top 50.

Jocelyn Willoughby: 146 spots (current 33rd, preseason 179th)

Believe it or not, Evans’ explosion was not quite enough for the No. 1 spot on the risers list. That belongs to another young former ACC guard.

Playing in her first career game in a WNBA arena (two years removed from the bubble season), Jocelyn Willoughby made her presence felt in 29 productive minutes. Willoughby benefitted from the absences of Betnijah Laney and DiDi Richards, and she took full advantage.

Fallers

On the flip side of the risers, you have the fallers — those players whose rank looked a lot better a week ago.

Erica Wheeler: 37 spots (current 57th, preseason 20th)

This one is probably a function of ESPN overrating Wheeler to start the season. Yes, Wheeler is a solid guard who should give the Dream a valuable veteran presence in the backcourt as they rebuild. But it’s hard to imagine that she finishes the season as one of the top 20 fantasy players in the game.

Plus, Atlanta has a rookie guard who looks like she’ll command a lot more usage than what ESPN projected. Speaking of Rhyne Howard’s touches…

Aari McDonald: 41 spots (current 108th, preseason 67th)

Like Wheeler, McDonald may end up with fewer counting stats than what ESPN thought thanks in large part to her new teammate. Howard entered the season ranked 38th on ESPN, but in her debut, she led the team in minutes as well as five of the six stats that count for fantasy points.

There’s also Kristy Wallace, who somehow didn’t even exist on ESPN’s preseason list but got the start and played 29 minutes for Atlanta on Saturday. McDonald came off the bench and scored just one point in 18 minutes. If Game 1 was any indication of what Tanisha Wright’s rotation will look like, McDonald may have a hard time living up to her preseason rank.

Arike Ogunbowale: 51 spots (current 68th, preseason 17th)

Arike owners, you have nothing to worry about. Ogunbowale’s game is suited perfectly for ESPN’s fantasy scoring system, which proportionally rewards scoring and shooting more heavily than defense and rebounding.

Sometimes stars just have an off night. Ogunbowale’s seven-point performance in Dallas’ opening loss was her lowest output since her rookie year. Give Atlanta’s defense plenty of credit, but don’t read anything into an anomaly to start the season.

Fantasy performances of the week(end)

Going forward, this section will recognize the top games of the past week from a fantasy perspective. However, with only one weekend under our belts, we’re taking a look at the best performances of the season so far.

Alyssa Thomas, 42 fantasy points (May 7 vs. New York)

Seeing Alyssa Thomas on the floor to open the season was refreshing after she missed the majority of 2021 with an Achilles injury. The two-time All-Star was at her best right away, pouring in 25 points with spin moves and her signature shot puts.

Add in her contributions on the other end of the floor (four steals) and on the glass (seven boards), and it was enough to give her one of the best fantasy outings of the young season.

Sabrina Ionescu, 42 fantasy points (May 7 vs. Connecticut)

Thomas’ efforts weren’t enough to give her the outright title of most fantasy points in this game, nor were they enough for her team to win the game. That’s because Sabrina Ionescu did what Sabrina Ionescu does: fill the stat sheet.

While Ionescu’s efficiency left something to be desired last year, ESPN’s scoring system doesn’t care about that — only volume stats count for fantasy purposes. For that reason, the NCAA’s triple-double leader still finished in the top 20 in the league in total fantasy points in 2021, and she validated that with a stellar performance (both in real life and fantasy) to open the 2022 season.

Candace Parker, 44 fantasy points (May 6 vs. Los Angeles)

Candace Parker has made it known that her goal for this year’s regular season is to “not suck.” She probably wasn’t satisfied with the outcome of this game — an overtime loss for the Sky — but individually, it’s safe to say Parker didn’t suck.

The veteran contributed in all facets of the game. In terms of the six stats that count for fantasy points, Candace Parker’s line of 21 points, six rebounds, six assists, three steals, one block and three 3-pointers hadn’t been accomplished since Breanna Stewart did it in 2016.

A’ja Wilson, 48 fantasy points (May 8 vs. Seattle)

The top fantasy total of the 2022 campaign thus far fittingly belongs to the betting favorite for MVP. It appears that Becky Hammon is cooking up something special in Las Vegas, and A’ja Wilson is a huge part of that recipe.

While much of the East Coast was sleeping on Sunday night, Wilson feasted on Seattle to the tune of 20 points, 15 rebounds and five blocks. She became just the 12th player in league history to do so, and the list of the first 11 is loaded with Hall of Famers.

Miscellaneous fantasy stat of the week

It’s always fun when something quirky happens, regardless of whether it means anything. Here, we celebrate the unique and bizarre stats as they relate to fantasy points.

Brittney Sykes’ defense has been trending up over recent years: After landing on the WNBA All-Defensive Second Team in 2020 and following that up with First Team honors in 2021, she won the WNBL’s Defensive Player of the Year award in Australia in March.

It was that defense that allowed Sykes to log 31 ESPN fantasy points without even reaching double figures in the scoring column. Her four steals and two blocks helped lead the Sparks to an overtime win and gave her a great overall stat line despite just nine actual points.

In thousands of player games last season, that only happened eight times. Don’t be shocked, however, if Sykes pulls it off again at some point.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

If you’ve followed our WNBA coverage over the last eight months, you know we’ve added betting analysis as one way to help grow the game. We kicked it off with our primer heading into last year’s playoffs, which is a great place to start if you’re new to the betting scene.

This year, for the first time, we’ll be rolling out betting coverage right from the beginning of the season.

We aren’t likely to have game lines until the regular season tips off on Friday, but we do have championship futures and trends from last year. So, let’s go ahead and break those down as we count down the hours until the season openers.

Futures

Championship

Several books have had these posted for months, and they have been continuously adjusting throughout the offseason as league news has affected the landscape.

For example, the Mystics were listed at around +3000 in most places before the draft lottery, but after they landed the No. 1 pick (which they later traded), those odds dropped to +2000 or even +1800 at some books.

Likewise, teams like the Sparks and the Mercury, who added big names such as Liz Cambage and Tina Charles during free agency, saw their odds move. Kudos to you if you were able to snag any of those bets at the previous odds.

At this point, the next event to affect the odds will probably be the games themselves. For now, here are where the odds stand at a few of the biggest books.

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FanDuel
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DraftKings
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BetMGM

There should be more value in a couple of weeks (more on that later), but as it stands, the Liberty at +3000 on FanDuel and the Sun at +400 on DraftKings may be solid bets.

In New York’s case, the roster didn’t change a whole lot from last season’s playoff team, but the coaching staff did. Sandy Brondello is a proven winner who should know how to get the most out of the talent on this team.

The one big change was the Liberty’s addition of Stefanie Dolson. It may not have been as splashy as the Cambage or Charles signings, but Dolson is a two-time All-Star in the prime of her career who brings championship experience at the college, WNBA and EuroLeague levels. Her screening ability was one key reason Courtney Vandersloot was able to do so much damage in the pick-and-roll over the last several seasons. Sabrina Ionescu could see similar success in that department.

Connecticut, meanwhile, upgraded its roster by virtue of health. Yes, Alyssa Thomas returned at the end of last season, but having her back from the start will make a huge difference next to Jonquel Jones and DeWanna Bonner. This will be the first year that those three will get to play together all season, despite it being the third season that they are all under contract for the Sun.

And we can’t forget about the return of Courtney Williams. Bringing her back into the mix means the only difference between this year’s starting lineup and the one that pushed the Mystics to the brink in the 2019 Finals will be Bonner (in place of Shekinna Stricklen).

Not only is Williams an upgrade, but the absences of Jones and Thomas over the last couple of years have allowed players like Brionna Jones to step in and gain valuable experience, which should make this team deeper than that 2019 squad was.

MVP

FanDuel is the only book with MVP odds at the moment, but more and more should pop up in the next week or two. Here are FanDuel’s MVP odds.

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There is a pretty clear “big three” this year, although a few others have a path to that top tier at some point. If Tina Charles or Sylvia Fowles can carry their respective teams in the absence of Brittner Griner and Napheesa Collier, their stock could rise. Elena Delle Donne’s could as well if she can stay healthy for the first time since 2019.

As far as the current top tier, Breanna Stewart seems like the best bet. Jonquel Jones is coming off of a remarkable season, but she’ll lose a little bit of scoring volume to Alyssa Thomas, and voter fatigue generally makes it tough to repeat for any award in any sport.

A’ja Wilson should take off in Becky Hammon’s new system without Liz Cambage stealing paint touches, so she deserves to be the favorite. The gap between her odds and Stewart’s is enough that the latter may be a slightly better value though.

Trends to watch out for

Early breakouts

Last year, the first few weeks of the season provided tons of value in terms of futures betting. Both championship odds and MVP odds stayed relatively stagnant while we started to gain information about teams and players through the first handful of games.

There was a window of time to bet on breakout stars like Betnijah Laney for MVP or upstart teams like the Sun (whose odds were in the middle of the pack early on as everyone overestimated the impact of losing Alyssa Thomas to injury). While Laney didn’t win the MVP and the Sun didn’t win the title, both looked much more likely to do so a month into the season than they did on opening day. Naturally, those bets had good value, and at sportsbooks that allow midseason cashouts, it was possible to still profit from that value.

Keep an eye on the odds during May: If there’s a 2022 version of Laney or a Connecticut to bet on this year, those who pay the closest attention will have a leg up on beating the books to those bets.

Special unders

For a lot of people, betting unders isn’t as fun as betting overs. The average fan doesn’t usually enjoy a game filled with bricks.

If you want to take advantage of a couple of areas that have been misjudged by sportsbooks, however, consider back-to-back unders and fourth-quarter unders.

Back-to-back unders come into play during the second of consecutive matchups between the same two teams. Last season, this happened 47 times, and the under hit in 26 of those (55.3 percent). Since you only need to win around 53 percent of your over/under bets to be profitable, you would have come out ahead simply by betting the under in every single second leg of a back-to-back.

Part of this is simply a matter of rest. Almost all of those back-to-backs were played with just one off day in between, leaving players a little more tired and less likely to push the pace in the second game.

Of course, that would be true of any game in which the teams were playing on short rest, but there’s an added component at work when the short-rest games are between teams that just met two days prior: scouting report familiarity. Put those two factors together, and you have a recipe for a game that was lower-scoring than the first matchup.

The other type of under bet that’s worth monitoring was even more profitable last season. Fourth-quarter unders went 119-72 with one push in 2021, cashing out well over 60 percent of the time.

Basketball games at almost any level tend to slow down a little bit as the game goes on — legs aren’t as fresh 35 minutes in as they were at the tip. This leads to lower-average scores in each successive quarter. While free throws at the end of close games do sometimes drive the fourth quarter scores up, the effect isn’t large enough to buck the overall trend; fourth quarters have still been historically the slowest and lowest-scoring quarters of the game.

For whatever reason, sportsbooks haven’t seemed to figure that out yet. These lines vary, but often you can find a fourth-quarter over/under that’s at one-fourth of the game over/under or even slightly higher. For instance, in a game that has an over/under set at 160, a fourth-quarter line of 40 or 41 may be worth taking the under on.

The more people bet on a sport, the more people watch the sport, and the more the sport grows. As part of our efforts to grow the WNBA, we’ll be keeping you updated on the betting trends and futures odds with regular analysis throughout the year, so stay tuned all season long.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Four teams, three matchups, two game days and one weekend. That’s what we have left of the 2021-22 college basketball season.

It’s also what we have left to bet on.

With every major regulated sportsbook finally offering women’s college basketball lines, we have several options to choose from. Let’s break down how, where and what to bet when it comes to this weekend’s Final Four.

Betting options

For an overview of the basic types of bets you can place and how to make sense of the numbers, you can check out our primer from last fall. While that was for the WNBA, the lines and odds work the same way for any basketball game at any level.

If you’re interested in some slightly more advanced options, we’ll break those down here. If you’d rather stick to the basics, or if you’re already well versed in these options, feel free to skip to the game analysis below.

Every sportsbook is a little bit different, so not all of these will be available everywhere. Books that now offer women’s college basketball lines include PointsBet, BetRivers, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM and WynnBet. Each of the following options can be found on at least one or two of those books.

Alternate lines

Every sportsbook will set the main spread at exactly or approximately equal odds on both sides, but if you’d rather bet on a different spread, some sportsbooks will allow you to do that at different odds. The less likely the bet is to win, the more it pays if it does.

Most sportsbooks have South Carolina favored over Louisville by about eight points. A bet on South Carolina -8 would be around -110 odds, but you could also bet on South Carolina -10 at longer (higher paying) odds or South Carolina -6 at shorter odds. South Carolina is less likely to win by double digits than they are to win by at least eight, so a bet on South Carolina -10 would pay even more if it wins.

These alternate lines are often available for game totals as well.

Half and quarter lines

These are also offered by some sportsbooks, and the concept is pretty simple – they work the same way as the moneylines, spreads and totals for the full game, except only for a specific quarter or half.

If you want to bet on South Carolina but are worried that their 269th-ranked free-throw shooting won’t hold up enough in the final minute for them to preserve an eight-point lead, maybe it’s worth betting on them to win the first half rather than winning or covering the spread for the whole game.

Live bets

Every major U.S. sportsbook has been offering this option as we’ve gotten deep into the tournament. Live betting is just betting in the middle of the game rather than before it starts. Because the lines are constantly changing throughout the game depending on the score and time remaining, sometimes it can be hard to place a bet before the line moves again, so this usually works best during a dead ball or a timeout.

The most value in live betting is often when there is a game situation that the sportsbooks may not be accounting for. Injuries are an unfortunate one, but factors like players fouling out or teams going on a run after a shift in strategy can also lead to good live betting opportunities.

Player props

Player prop bets are just bets on a specific stat for one player – typically something common like points, rebounds or assists. They work the same way as an over/under bet for the game: You bet on whether that player will go over or under the line in that particular category.

For example, in Monday’s Elite Eight game between Louisville and Michigan, FanDuel had the line at 18.5 for Naz Hillmon’s points scored. That means a bet on the over would have won if Hillmon had scored at least 19 points, but because she finished with 18, the under won.

Most “real” sportsbooks don’t yet offer player props on the women’s side (which is why it’s important to keep pushing for equal betting options). But PrizePicks, which brands itself as a daily fantasy site rather than a sportsbook, offers what essentially amount to player props on women’s college games. And as of the Elite Eight, FanDuel and DraftKings began offering some player props as well.

Final Four breakdown

Now that we have a sense for how and where to bet on these games, let’s take a look at where the value is.

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Destanni Henderson and South Carolina enter the Final Four as the No. 1 overall seed. (Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

South Carolina vs. Louisville

We’ve reached the point of the season where everyone remaining is a team that has been a good bet all season. These two teams have covered quite a few spreads, as have the two in the other matchup Friday, so picking against one of them is tough.

Ultimately, this one may come down to the Cardinals’ defensive game plan. It’s no secret that the way to stop South Carolina is to pack the paint – outside of Destanni Henderson, the Gamecocks don’t have outside shooting that can come close to matching their dominance inside.

Easier said than done, however. We’ve seen other teams try this and fail for various reasons. Creighton did an excellent job of swarming Boston and company, but when you’re giving up that many inches, sometimes it just doesn’t matter.

If there’s anyone who can make it work, though, it’s Louisville and Jeff Walz. Remember when they knocked off the Oregon team that had just beaten Team USA and was supposed to go 40-0, largely thanks to Walz’s uniquely brilliant defensive scheme? In that one, he had Kylee Shook, his rim protector, matched up with Oregon guard Minyon Moore, who wasn’t a 3-point threat. That allowed Shook to freely roam the paint, while Moore didn’t hurt them from the perimeter.

The personnel and the opponent are much different here, of course, but the defensive brilliance is the same. Expect Louisville’s havoc-wreaking backcourt to apply enough pressure to make it difficult for South Carolina to get the ball inside in the first place, which could neutralize the Gamecocks’ height advantage.

Louisville will have to keep them off the glass as well, but at the current line of South Carolina -8, it’s worth taking a shot on the Cardinals to do that. Every game this time of year seems to come down to the final minute, so a three-possession spread is pretty wide.

Stanford vs. UConn

The heartbreaking reality of betting this game is that it may come down to the injury to Dorka Juhász. While Juhász isn’t the star that, say, Paige Bueckers is, the impact of her absence will be substantial.

When Juhász went down Monday during UConn’s Elite Eight win over NC State, the Huskies were up 25-18 with a chance to extend the lead at the free-throw line. That was midway through the second quarter, at which point Elissa Cunane had managed just three points.

Cunane scored 15 of her 18 from that point on as the Wolfpack went on a run to get back in the game and turn it into a thriller. Without Juhász, the Huskies are left with only Aaliyah Edwards and Olivia Nelson-Ododa as true post players in the rotation. That problem is magnified by the fact that both are foul prone and, at times, have trouble staying on the court.

Edwards fouled out of that Elite Eight game, and Nelson-Ododa had to play several minutes with four fouls. We saw Cunane get a few easy buckets at the rim late in the game, when Nelson-Ododa was forced to be less aggressive defensively on the interior.

While Stanford doesn’t have a back-to-the-basket threat at Cunane’s level, they do love to score at the hoop via layups and back cuts out of their Princeton offense. If Edwards and Nelson-Ododa get into foul trouble in this one, UConn may be forced to go small and sacrifice rim protection and rebounding.

Most books opened with UConn favored by 1.5, but that has already reversed in several places. Even with a line of Stanford -1.5, the Cardinal are still a solid bet in this one.

Championship futures

There is perhaps no better illustration of the value of “line shopping” (searching on various sportsbooks for the best odds on a particular bet) than in the championship odds.

Some lines have moved since that post, but there are still plenty of discrepancies from one book to another, so it’s worth checking around to see where you can find the best odds on the team you want to bet on.

As far as value, South Carolina is the clear favorite and should have over a 50 percent chance to win it all. The +115 odds above were from Caesars, and those have moved, but FanDuel still has that line at +100. If you can find the Gamecocks at plus odds, don’t overthink it, just take it.

Stanford is the other team that seems to be undervalued in a lot of places. Several books still have Stanford with longer odds than UConn, despite the fact that most of those same books also have Stanford as slight favorites over UConn.

Don’t bet on Stanford at anything +300 or worse, but if you can find +400 or better, then hop on the defending champs.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

The NCAA Tournament brackets are out, the matchups are set and March Madness is officially upon us! We’re just days away from the most exciting weekend on the sports calendar, and the First Four will kick things off even sooner this year. Beginning on Wednesday night, 68 teams will battle it out for one trophy.

With so many games and so much on the line, there are countless storylines to follow. Here are some of my biggest takeaways from this year’s bracket.

The First Four is an excellent addition

As part of the NCAA’s ongoing effort to address gender inequities between the men’s and women’s tournaments, they added four more teams to the women’s field this year to match the men’s side.

We can talk about whether some of the measures — both enacted and proposed — will bring about true equity, but the First Four should have an immediate positive impact.

Consider this: Incarnate Word, who hasn’t even been in Division I for a full decade and has yet to finish .500 or better in a Division I season, will for two hours on Wednesday night have the attention of the entire women’s basketball world as it plays on national TV. The Cardinals never even won an NCAA Tournament game in Division II (they only made it once), but in facing fellow No. 16 seed Howard rather than a No. 1 seed, they have a realistic chance at a tournament win.

That’s the kind of moment that can change the trajectory of a program. From the recruiting boost it will undoubtedly provide, to the revenue it will bring in, the impact of playing in that single game goes far beyond what happens on the court.

The same can be said of the other No. 16 seeds in the First Four, and even the First Four at-large teams to a certain extent. That, without question, is a boon to the sport.

Mid-major disrespect is alive and well

It’s nothing new to see the committee slot teams from outside the traditional power conferences into seed lines that are much too low, but it’s still a conversation we should have every year until they stop doing it.

Some of the best mid-major programs in the country got misplaced again this season. No. 6 BYU, No. 11 Princeton and No. 12 FGCU were each seeded worse than our projections and Charlie Creme’s bracketology, and all deserved to be at least one spot higher.

When the committee makes the decision to under-seed a mid-major, it doesn’t just hurt that team. It also hurts the team slotted across from it, which is usually a power conference team. In this case, No. 6 Kentucky and No. 5 Virginia Tech are forced to face ranked teams in the first round, and No. 3 Michigan will likely have to get past a 26-3 BYU squad to get to the Sweet 16.

When teams beat up on lesser opponents, they continue to get penalized for the lack of strength of their schedule. That shouldn’t be the case if all a team does is blow out everyone it plays. What more could they be expected to do?

High seeds aren’t safe in the Bridgeport region

While we’re on the topic of under-seeded mid-majors, it’s worth pointing out that as frustrating as it can be to see these schools not get the placement they deserve, it also gives us juicy upset potential. Look no further than the Bridgeport region for some prime examples.

Her Hoop Stats gives No. 12 UMass a 47.7 percent chance to knock off No. 5 Notre Dame, and it actually favors Princeton over Kentucky in the 11 vs. 6 matchup. While the model may slightly overrate those upset chances, those matchups should be much closer than the seeds suggest.

Then there’s No. 13 IUPUI vs. No. 4 Oklahoma. IUPUI, led by a must-see player in Macee Williams, took Michigan to overtime and knocked off Iowa. Both of those games were on the road, and both of those opponents are stronger than Oklahoma is. The Jaguars will have no fear going into the Sooners’ building, making this first-round matchup one to watch.

The danger for the high seeds in this region doesn’t just lie in the first round, either. No. 1 seed NC State will have to play a pseudo-road game in the Elite Eight if chalk holds. They are matched up with No. 2 seed UConn in the Huskies’ home state, and it doesn’t help that UConn is finally healthy and clicking. Don’t blame the committee — this was a geography problem — but the top-seeded Wolfpack will have their work cut out for them if they want to end UConn’s streak of 13 straight Final Four appearances.

Tune into Utah vs. Arkansas

When it comes to entertainment value, I don’t really care whether a basketball game is high scoring or low scoring, fast paced or slow. I just want good basketball and a close game. Impressive defense gives us a 47-45 game? Fine with me!

Most fans, of course, would not agree. The Debbie Antonelli school of “shooting ‘till your arm falls off” generally makes for appealing basketball (and for what it’s worth, as long as it’s a close game, I can get into that style, too).

If that’s your speed, don’t miss the 7 vs. 10 matchup in the Spokane region. Arkansas’ offense ranks 35th in points per possession, but they are outside of the top 150 in points per possession allowed on defense. And if you think that’s a big disparity, try Utah’s on for size: eighth on offense and 271st on defense.

Add in the fact that both teams rank in the top 25 in 3s attempted per game, with over 25 each, and this one should be a launch fest. Circle it on your schedule if you enjoy points.

Potential rematches to watch for

There are always going to be potential rematches if you go deep enough into the bracket, but there are two in particular that stand out to me before we reach the Elite Eight.

The first is Indiana vs. Kentucky. If both teams avoid upsets, they’ll meet in the second round in a rematch of one of the biggest games of the season’s first week. The Hoosiers handed their border rival a 21-point drubbing on Nov. 14, but that was before Rhyne Howard went supernova and teammates like Dre’Una Edwards and Jazmine Massengill started stepping up. Indiana hasn’t faced the Kentucky team of the last few weeks — the one that took down South Carolina to win the SEC tournament.

The other will take place in the Sweet 16 if both teams make it. No. 2 seed Baylor and No. 3 seed Michigan find themselves paired up once again after two overtime games in the last year. The first was just under a year ago when Baylor edged out the Wolverines in the Sweet Sixteen, and Michigan exacted its revenge on Dec. 19.

If you don’t have a dog in the fight, you can only hope that we get a rubber match and that it lives up to the previous two thrillers.

South Carolina’s path sets up well

This isn’t exactly noteworthy — the Gamecocks were going to be the favorites no matter how the matchups came out. But the committee did reward their dominance, whether intentionally or not, by providing them with a favorable path to the title.

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South Carolina's Aliyah Boston (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Assumptions in March are probably never a good idea, but if we assume anyway that South Carolina makes it out of the first weekend, the chalk bracket would have them draw No. 4 seed Arizona in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats are backing into the tournament on the heels of four losses in their last seven and might struggle to get to 40 against the Gamecocks’ defense.

If chalk holds, South Carolina would have an Elite Eight date with No. 2 seed Iowa, who our bracketology and Charlie Creme’s each had as a No. 3 seed. (And how about the top two National Player of the Year candidates in Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark potentially playing on the same court?)

Finally, South Carolina is on the opposite side of the bracket from arguably the next three best teams: Stanford, NC State and UConn. Dawn Staley’s squad certainly didn’t need any help, but they got some.

Stars on double-digit seeds can fill it up

If you’re here, you’re surely familiar with Caitlin Clark, Iowa’s superstar sophomore who leads the nation in scoring at 27.4 points per game. Are you familiar, however, with the next four on the scoring list?

They’re all in this tournament, and they all play for a double-digit seed.

There’s No. 11 Villanova’s Maddy Siegrist, who checks in at second with 25.9 points per game. Behind her is Jasmine Dickey, the Delaware dynamo who dropped a 50-piece in February. Fourth is Kierstan Bell, although she doesn’t qualify officially based on the NCAA’s minimum games played requirement. Her FGCU Eagles play one of the most fun styles of basketball in the country. Rounding out the top five is Dyaisha Fair, whose explosiveness makes No. 13 Buffalo a scary draw for No. 4 Tennessee.

This is the beauty of the NCAA Tournament. Clark has played on ESPN, of course, but as for players like Dickey or Fair? The world deserves a chance to see them hoop, and March Madness gives us that chance.

Illinois State’s journey is an incredible story

I have to end this on a personal note. There’s never a shortage of inspiring stories this time of year, but it’s not every year you get one in your own backyard. As someone who’s been covering Illinois State locally, I couldn’t wrap this up without sharing their story.

It started five years ago when Illinois State took a chance on Kristen Gillespie, who had never been a Division I head coach. They were coming off of three straight seasons with single-digit wins, including a 2-28 campaign in 2014-15.

Through character and culture, Gillespie has spent the last five seasons turning the program around and instilling belief in her players. There’s likely no better example of that belief than the team’s performance this season: The Redbirds endured a 3-7 start and a four-game losing streak in February to rebound and become the Missouri Valley Conference champions two weeks later.

If that wasn’t enough to add credence to their underdog story, they did it on the strength of two stars – DeAnna Wilson and JuJu Redmond – who began their careers at junior colleges.

The national headlines will be about the No. 1 seeds, the Final Four contenders and the trendy upset picks. But stories like Illinois State – that’s what March is all about.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

There are still a few NCAA Tournament bids up for grabs this weekend, as the Big 12 and Missouri Valley open their conference tournaments Thursday and the Ivy League tournament gets underway on Friday. All three conferences have at least one at-large caliber team.

Most of the top leagues have wrapped up their postseason tournaments, however, so with the majority of at-large resumes signed and sealed, it’s time to take a look at where things stand before Selection Sunday.

Below, we project each of the 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament field and their seed lines based on a 1-68 S-curve. (Bracketing rules and geography may cause small fluctuations in these seed lines, which are based solely on best resumes.) For autobids yet to be decided, we’ve awarded them to the team most likely to win that conference tournament based on Her Hoop Stats win probabilities.

No. 1 Seeds

South Carolina, Stanford (Pac-12 autobid), NC State (ACC autobid), Louisville

Given that South Carolina beat both of the teams right behind them in this grouping, their loss to Kentucky on Sunday means nothing in terms of seeding. The Gamecocks are still the top team in every ranking or rating system and should undoubtedly be the No. 1 overall seed.

Stanford hasn’t lost to a team below them on the list since Thanksgiving weekend, and they rolled through a formidable Pac-12 without a loss. Their resume is almost as good as it was last season when they landed the top overall spot, so the only reason they aren’t in that spot this year is because of South Carolina’s absolute dominance. Like the first line, No. 2 overall is pretty much locked up.

The No. 3 overall is the last spot that’s all but set in stone before things start to get interesting. There’s a small chance NC State leapfrogs Stanford, but the committee’s most recent reveal had Stanford at No. 2 overall, and not enough has changed since then to project anything different. Any chance of the Wolfpack dropping below this line went out the window when Louisville lost to Miami in the ACC quarterfinals.

Speaking of that Miami loss, Louisville’s inclusion here looks much more precarious than it was before. The Cardinals will be rooting for someone other than Baylor to win the Big 12 tournament. One more loss for the Bears, and Louisville can feel a bit safer.

No. 2 Seeds

Baylor (Big 12 autobid), UConn (Big East autobid), LSU, Texas

Thanks to two blowout wins over Iowa State, including one on the road last week to win the Big 12 regular season, Baylor has the best resume of any team not on the top line. Theirs is the only one realistically good enough to catch Louisville, but they still might need to win their conference tournament this weekend to take that spot.

There was a time when it looked like UConn might be headed for its first No. 3 seed in over a decade. Instead, Paige Bueckers’ return has rejuvenated the team despite her limited minutes; since her first game back, UConn has looked every bit the part of a title contender and has vaulted itself back onto the No. 2 line. If the Huskies’ head-to-head matchup with Louisville back on Dec. 19 had gone their way, they’d probably have a shot at snagging the fourth No. 1.

Who thought LSU would be in this position when the season started? The Kim Mulkey Effect is real, and it’s been enough to put the Tigers in position to potentially land their first No. 2 seed since 2008. LSU is aided by the fact that at least one, and possibly both, of the two teams behind them will take another loss before Selection Sunday.

A lot of people have Texas on the No. 3 line, but owning the only true road win over a top-two team can carry weight. Add in the two blowout wins over Iowa State, who is competing for this spot as well, and Texas has a legitimate shot at a No. 2. The one thing holding the Longhorns down is a home loss to Texas Tech, so they’ll likely need a good showing in the Big 12 tournament to hang onto this spot.

No. 3 Seeds

Iowa State, Iowa (Big Ten autobid), Michigan, Indiana

While we’re on the topic of the Big 12 tournament, it’ll be important to watch Iowa State’s performance there as well. As the No. 2 seed, the Cyclones are lined up to face the No. 3 Longhorns in the semifinals if chalk holds. Their position here is really just a placeholder: That game, if it happens, will ultimately determine which of the two teams earns a No. 2 seed.

It wasn’t that long ago that Iowa was on the host bubble. Seven straight wins and Big Ten regular season and tournament championships will take you far. Iowa and Michigan split the regular season and are basically splitting hairs here, but both teams should be on this line.

Indiana has lost four of its last seven, but since all of those defeats have come to Iowa or Maryland, it shouldn’t be terribly damaging. There aren’t any bad losses on Indiana’s resume, which can’t be said of most teams below this line.

No. 4 Seeds

Tennessee, Arizona, Oklahoma, Maryland

Tennessee has come down to earth after it reached No. 5 in the AP Poll on the strength of several tight wins. Losses by some of the teams behind them have kept the Vols from sliding out of hosting range. Arizona is limping into the tournament as well, but did enough early on to stay home for the first weekend.

Maryland has more losses than anyone else in the top 16, but they are all to ranked teams (including to each of the top three) and mostly away from home. Oklahoma is the team most in danger of dropping given that they still have their conference tournament to play. A quarterfinal exit to Kansas on Friday may send them packing next weekend, but a deep run could solidify their hosting status.

No. 5 Seeds

Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, BYU, Oregon

Virginia Tech’s road loss to Liberty in December didn’t look great at the time, but the Flames’ memorable conference season helped Tech’s resume. Notre Dame has five losses to currently unranked teams, but none of them are outside of the top 60 in the NET and all happened away from home. Both teams will be pulling for Kansas to knock off Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament in the hopes they can move up and host.

BYU certainly deserves this spot, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see them fall to a No. 6 given the committee’s history of disrespecting mid-majors. Oregon is an interesting case; their placement will depend on how much the committee factors in the Ducks’ injury issues during the regular season.

No. 6 Seeds

Ohio State, North Carolina, Nebraska, Ole Miss,

Ohio State has a shiny record and a Big Ten regular season championship, but pulling them down is a non-conference schedule that featured a grand total of zero top-100 NET teams. North Carolina’s resume is a less extreme version of that.

Nebraska is a classic case of a team that does what it was supposed to do – for the most part, they’ve won games they were favored to win and lost games they were expected to lose. That lands them here. Ole Miss, two seasons removed from winning just seven games, finds itself here thanks to a remarkable turnaround led by Coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin and star center Shakira Austin.

No. 7 Seeds

Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky (SEC autobid), Kansas State

Aside from sharing a home state, Georgia and Georgia Tech are in similar spots in other ways, too. The defensive-minded squads have comparable resumes buoyed by big wins over NC State (for Georgia) and UConn (for Georgia Tech), and both are losers of five of their last eight.

Much has been said about Kentucky’s magnificent turnaround, and this team deserves that praise and more. They managed to turn a sub-.500 resume that looked dead in the water into a top-30 resume in the span of about three weeks.

Kansas State is the only team on lines No. 5 through No. 7 that hasn’t completed its resume yet. There’s a chance a loss to Texas tomorrow drops the Wildcats into an 8 vs. 9 matchup.

No. 8 Seeds

FGCU (Atlantic Sun autobid), UCF (American autobid), Utah, Florida

FGCU would have loved to climb onto the No. 7 line and avoid a No. 1 seed in the second round, but a loss to Stetson on Feb. 12 probably eliminated that opportunity. If the committee overlooks that blip for the fact that Kierstan Bell was injured, they may have an outside shot.

UCF is in the midst of perhaps its best season in school history, and no one will want to face that grind-it-out defense next week. Utah is on the opposite end of the scoring spectrum, but is also an incredible story after recording just five wins last year.

The key for Florida’s seeding will be how the committee views a team that just lost its leading scorer for the season in Kiki Smith.

No. 9 Seeds

South Florida, Arkansas, Creighton, Miami

How much recency bias will the committee apply to South Florida? The Bulls lost by just seven points to a healthy UConn squad and beat Stanford on a neutral floor in November, but they haven’t beaten a tournament team since then. A win over UCF in the AAC title game Thursday night might be enough to switch lines with them, but that shouldn’t matter when both are in the 8 vs. 9 matchup.

Arkansas has an ugly number in the loss column (13), but the Razorbacks played one of the toughest schedules in the country and were the victims of some close losses.

One of those losses was to Creighton, the second Big East team safely in the field. Miami’s story is Kentucky-like: WNIT to NCAA Tournament lock in mere days.

No. 10 Seeds

Washington State, Colorado, South Dakota (Summit autobid), Kansas

Washington State and Colorado are both on this line for now, but if Princeton or Missouri State plays well enough this weekend to catch one of them, Washington State’s head-to-head victory over the Buffs may be key.

South Dakota was probably already in, but you never know with mid-majors, so Coyotes fans breathed a sigh of relief when they punched their ticket on Tuesday. Kansas should be in as well, but it wouldn’t hurt for them to win a game at the Big 12 tournament and eliminate any doubt.

No. 11 Seeds

Princeton (Ivy autobid), Missouri State (MVC autobid), Missouri, Northwestern, Dayton

Missouri joins Washington State, Colorado and Kansas in the last four byes. Lauren Hansen’s layup to beat South Carolina is looking more and more crucial every day.

Northwestern and Dayton are part of the last four in, so both of them will be rooting hard for Missouri State and Princeton to win their conference tournaments this weekend. If either loses, the Missouri Valley or the Ivy could become two-bid leagues, knocking one or two other teams out of the field.

No. 12 Seeds

Villanova, Boston College, Gonzaga (WCC autobid), IUPUI (Horizon autobid), UMass (Atlantic 10 autobid)

Villanova and Boston College round out the last four in and can do nothing but sit back and watch the bubble action around them this weekend. IUPUI won at Iowa, UMass hung with Iowa State and each team has a Hammon Award semifinalist, so either could give a No. 5 seed fits.

Don’t sleep on the Zags, either. After two losses to BYU in the regular season, Gonzaga showed it’s ready for March with a 12-point win over the Cougars in the third meeting on Tuesday.

No. 13 Seeds

SFA (WAC autobid), Belmont (OVC autobid), MTSU (C-USA autobid), UNLV (Mountain West autobid)

Belmont became the first team to punch its ticket on Saturday, and UNLV joined them with a win in the Mountain West title game Wednesday night. MTSU has work to do as it opens C-USA tournament play Thursday afternoon.

SFA was an overtime away from a 12-5 upset last year and would prefer another No. 12 seed this year in order to get its first-round opponent on a neutral floor. A home loss to UTRGV in the regular season finale, however, put that possibility in serious jeopardy.

No. 14 Seeds

Buffalo (MAC autobid), Drexel (CAA autobid), Fairfield (MAAC autobid), UTA (Sun Belt autobid)

Buffalo didn’t earn the No. 1 seed in the MAC, but the Bulls are slight favorites in the conference tournament since Toledo has a tougher matchup in the semifinals Friday against Ball State. Should Buffalo get in, the world will get to see Dyaisha Fair, who hung 22 on South Carolina’s stout defense back in November and is currently top five in the nation in scoring at 23 points per game.

No. 15 Seeds

Jackson State (SWAC autobid), Bucknell (Patriot autobid), Maine (America East autobid), Mercer (SoCon autobid)

Navy did Bucknell a favor by knocking off the Patriot League’s No. 1 seed on a miraculous shot. Jackson State is as battle-tested as they come on the No. 15 line, and no No. 2 seed should want to game-plan for them.

No. 16 Seeds

Montana State (Big Sky autobid), UC Davis (Big West autobid), Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC autobid), Houston Baptist (Southland autobid), Norfolk State (MEAC autobid), Longwood (Big South autobid)

For the first time in NCAA women’s basketball history, two teams on the No. 16 line will get to experience tournament wins as the First Four will pit four of these six against each other next Wednesday and Thursday. Watch out for Montana State’s Darian White, a dynamic point guard who can get it done in a variety of ways.

First four out

Alabama, Florida State, South Dakota State, UCLA

Next four out

Duke, DePaul, Marquette, Rhode Island

Like the last four in, these teams are big Missouri State and Princeton fans this weekend. None of these eight have a chance to help themselves anymore, as all fell last week in their conference tournaments.

Duke’s victory over Iowa is the best win among this group, but a brutal loss to Virginia and a 7-11 record in the ACC are tough to overcome.

South Dakota State is the best team of the eight, but at-large bids are about the best resume, not the best team. The Jackrabbits have a resume worthy of the tournament when only looking at the games they’ve played since star Myah Selland came back from injury, but the committee probably won’t be able to overlook their 3-7 start to the season.

Conferences with multiple bids

SEC – 9
ACC – 8
Big Ten– 7
Big 12 – 6
Pac-12 – 6
Big East – 3
AAC – 2
A10 – 2
WCC – 2



Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

CHICAGO — A minute and a half into the overtime period in an off-the-national-radar Monday night contest, Aaliyah Collins jogged the ball up the floor. Her Chicago State Cougars were tied with Wisconsin 56-56, and the freshman eyed her teammate on the right wing.

In the blink of an eye, Collins crossed over to her left, beat her defender, faked a pass to the left corner, and flipped the ball toward the rim. It didn’t drop, but a foul was called. She calmly sank both free throws.

Outside of the fact that it put her team ahead, few observers at the time were aware of the significance of that moment. You see, those free throws didn’t just give the Cougars the lead — they gave the Cougars the lead for good. On Monday, Nov. 22, 2021, Chicago State won its first basketball game in 674 days.

“We were celebrating like we had won a championship,” Collins says.

Most players of Collins’ caliber aren’t interested in going on to play for a team that just went winless a season ago. Collins, after all, was the 2021 Washington State Girls Basketball Player of the Year. But for the self-described underdog, the fit was perfect.

“Chicago State kind of checked off a lot of the checks on my list that I was looking for in a school,” Collins says. “I really wanted to be close to the city. I wanted a lot of ethnicity. I wanted to be far from home.”

As for the basketball? That only added to her drive.

“People might look at that and then they wouldn’t want to come because of the record,” Collins says. “But who says that can’t be you to help change it?”

Collins has “wanted to prove people wrong” ever since she didn’t make the fifth-grade basketball team almost a decade ago. “Before high school, I wasn’t really the best player,” she says. “I struggled a lot.”

It’s safe to say Collins has already proven plenty of people wrong: Her 2.6 steals per game rank in the top 30 in the country, and she’s the only freshman in Division I averaging at least 14 points, three assists and 2.5 steals per game. The dynamic point guard is on pace to shatter program records in several categories.

It’s the type of season that surely has many coaches kicking themselves. The few Division I offers Collins had received got pulled when the pandemic hit, and she went multiple months without a single scholarship offer.

“It was very discouraging at first,” Collins told Sam Brief last month on the Chi State Pod. “I went through a really tough time of confidence in myself.”

It wasn’t until the winter of Collins’ senior season that her former teammate’s uncle, who had a connection with then-first year Chicago State head coach Tiffany Sardin, put the two in touch.

“I was surprised she was still available,” Sardin says. “We got lucky.”

Due to COVID-19 restrictions at the time, Sardin had to rely on film, phone calls and Zoom during the recruiting process. That included watching clips of Collins running track and showing off her speed.

“She was getting smoked, and then out of nowhere she turned the jets on and won the race,” Sardin recalls. “I had to watch the clip several times thinking, ‘Wow!’”

Once the two connected, it fell on Sardin to convince the high school sensation to come play for a program without a rich history. “I was very honest and answered any and every question Aaliyah and her parents had,” Sardin says. “They were prepared and did a lot of research on Chicago State and me as well.”

Sardin’s biggest selling point? “I did tell her I thought she could be a special player that Chicago State hadn’t seen in a long time,” Sardin says. “If she wasn’t allergic to working hard, being challenged and held accountable … then come be the reason why something is changing.”

Collins committed not long after, and the two have been forming a special bond ever since.

“I have so much respect for that woman,” Collins says. “Before one of our games, she told me, ‘I put a lot of trust in you.’

“I’m like, ‘I’m a freshman — you sure you want to do that?’ But that just kind of stuck with me because that’s a lot for a coach to put trust into a freshman.”

That trust is looking like a wise decision on Sardin’s part as Collins inches closer and closer to becoming Chicago State’s first ever WAC Freshman of the Year. Collins already has five WAC Freshman of the Week awards under her belt, and in January she became the first mid-major player in two years to win the USBWA Tamika Catchings National Freshman of the Week — an honor given in recent seasons to players such as Ayoka Lee, Aliyah Boston, Paige Bueckers, Caitlin Clark, Azzi Fudd and Aneesah Morrow.

But it’s not any individual accolades that Collins is most concerned with.

“I wanna catch some more dubs,” she says.

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Collins drives to the basket against Wichita State earlier this season. (Courtesy of Wichita State)

That mentality is what fueled Collins to lead her high school team to an unbeaten season as a senior; it’s what Sardin referred to when she called Collins a “fierce competitor” upon signing her; it’s what prompted Collins to apologize for a loss to the league’s best team during an interview for this piece.

The true test of that desire to win comes when no one is watching — when the scoreboard is off and the cameras aren’t rolling. It was one of those times, after Collins injured her ankle during a summer workout, that Sardin saw who her top recruit could become.

“She wasn’t going to say a word, just fight through the pain,” Sardin says. “It really bothered her not being able to practice or go full in summer training for a few days. At that moment, I knew this kid was going to be special in this program and league. I’m not sure anyone else would’ve battled through the discomfort and pain she was feeling just to be out on the court training with her teammates.”

When it comes to in-game results, Collins is off to a good start: She’s led Chicago State to three more wins since that first one in November to match the program’s total from the previous five seasons combined. With a young, up-and-coming coaching savant in Sardin at the helm, there will undoubtedly be more where that came from.

As Collins continues to garner more recognition, she credits her family for where she is today. She has two older siblings, Kaela and Anthony, whom she calls her “biggest motivators,” and she attributes her love of the sport to her father, Tony. “[My dad] is very passionate about the game, and he kind of just spread that passion to me,” she says.

Aaliyah also believes Tony, who coached her during her elementary and middle school years, is responsible for her lockdown ability on the court.

“He definitely worked with me a lot on defense because he’s a big believer in defense, too,” she says. “I feel like he’s been a big part of my success in basketball.”

For as much love as Aaliyah has for her parents and siblings, however, they aren’t the ones she’s most excited to talk to when she calls home.

“Sometimes I’ll be calling my parents, and I’ll be like, ‘Where are the cats?’” she says. “Before even really talking to [my parents] I wanna see the cats please!”

That Collins ended up wearing a cougar on her jersey is fitting. Collins’ enthusiasm for her three cats (“those are my babies,” she says) is emblematic of what sets her apart — an ebullient energy that shines through in her play.

That same energy carries over into Collins’ fandom. The native of Snohomish, Wash. pulls for the Seattle Storm — an appropriate choice for a player with shades of former Storm guard Jordin Canada in her game.

Like Canada, Collins hangs her hat on the defensive side of the ball. While her jump shot is a work in progress — ”I have been in the gym day in, day out working on that,” she says — she’s already producing on the offensive end, as well. She’s averaged over 20 points per game in the team’s wins, including 25 against the Badgers in Madison.

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(Kena Krustinger for Chicago State Athletics)

It takes an exceptional coach to turn around a losing team, but seemingly every great sports rebuilding story is co-authored by a star athlete, a “face of the franchise” type of player with the perfect blend of talent and personality to elevate both a program’s performance and its marketability. Steve Kerr and Steph Curry took the Warriors from one playoff appearance in 18 years to perennial contenders; Brad Underwood and Ayo Dosunmu brought Illinois men’s basketball back to prominence after years of irrelevance; Adia Barnes and Aari McDonald led Arizona to last year’s national title game three years removed from a 6-24 season.

Chicago State is still climbing the front end of the mountain, but Sardin may have found her Aari McDonald in Aaliyah Collins. So for the first time in recent memory, there is hope for the program on the South Side of Chicago. Hope that behind Sardin, Collins and company, the Cougars are well on their way to “catching some more dubs.”

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

With Selection Sunday (yes, Sunday this year) basically a month away, talk is heating up around seeding and who could make a March run. The NCAA Selection Committee recently revealed its top 16 seeds, and ESPN’s Charlie Creme has been updating his bracketology regularly.

But every year, there are at least one or two teams that sneak up to those better seed lines thanks to fortunate resumes that perhaps oversell their true standing in the national landscape. We’ve taken a look at a handful of the teams Creme has had on the No. 2 or No. 3 line to find who those teams might be.

Obviously, everyone in this group is a contender in some way. You don’t get to this point without at least having a shot to make the Final Four. But who are the teams that have a truly realistic chance at knocking off a No. 1 seed and making the Final Four? And who are the teams that could be headed for a first-weekend exit at the hands of a No. 6 or No. 7?

Arizona: Contender

Dawn Staley has to be the frontrunner for Coach of the Year, but it’s hard to ignore the job Adia Barnes has done in keeping this team in the top ten despite losing the face of the rebuild in Aari McDonald. Arizona has ridden the momentum of last year’s enthralling postseason run and is in position to do it again this March.

Under Barnes, the Wildcats have become one of the nation’s premier defensive units by forcing turnovers without getting out of rebounding position. It’s rare for a team to be able to accomplish both. Rare enough, in fact, that Arizona is the only team that has rebounded over 70 percent of opponent misses and turned opponents over on over 22 percent of their possessions in each of the last two seasons.

The scariest part for the rest of the country? The Wildcat defense is doing this despite some bad luck this season. As Ken Pomeroy has pointed out in the past, defenses have minimal control over whether an opponent’s 3-pointers go in. The scouting report on shooters generally isn’t “force them to miss 3s;” it’s “force them to put the ball on the floor instead of taking 3s in the first place.” This is the concept driving Arizona’s defensive misfortune: Their opponent 3-point percentage is in the bottom half of the country even though they have a top-30 2-point defense and rank in the top quarter of teams in opponent 3-point rate.

At some point, Arizona’s opponents are going to start missing 3s. When that happens, watch out.

Michigan: Contender

This answer may have been different a month ago when Michigan was coming off of a 21-point loss to Nebraska. To that point, the Wolverines’ only road tests against tournament-level competition had resulted in blowout defeats, which left them with a lot of questions.

Since then, they’ve rattled off eight straight wins, including drubbings of Maryland and Ohio State on the road. The Wolverines will have to get used to life without Leigha Brown for a while, but that didn’t phase them in their most recent win over Iowa on Sunday. The way freshman Laila Phelia (24 points) and sophomore Cameron Williams (8 points on 4-of-5 shooting) played in that one goes to show that this team may be deeper than they’ve gotten credit for.

A quick look at Michigan’s remaining schedule shows that they’ll be favored in every game until the return trip to Iowa in their regular season finale. Already atop the Big Ten standings, they have to be considered the favorites to win the league, and the No. 3 seed they were given in the first NCAA seeding reveal should turn into a No. 2 the next time around.

If Michigan can finish off the Big Ten regular season championship and win the conference tournament as well, they still may have a path to a No. 1 seed. With all the seniors on this roster starting to play with a sense of urgency, this is a team that could make some serious noise next month.

Tennessee: Pretender

Our first pretender on the board fell to a No. 3 seed in Creme’s most recent bracketology. What Kellie Harper has accomplished in Year 3 in Knoxville has been commendable, especially when you consider that she spent the better part of two months going 11-1 without leading returning scorer Rae Burrell.

But Rocky Top has been living on the edge all season. They are 7-0 in games decided by single digits, and they’ve pulled out both of their overtime games so far. Losses in the last two weeks to Auburn by 10, Florida by 25 and UConn by 19 have given us a pretty good indication that this team has a long way to go if it wants to be worthy of a No. 2 seed.

There are shades of last year’s Texas A&M team all over this profile. You may recall that those Aggies rode their close-game magic into the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, when they narrowly avoided upsets to No. 15 seed Troy and No. 7 seed Iowa State, but they still became the first No. 2 seed to fall after losing to Arizona in the Sweet 16. Don’t be surprised to see a similar fate for the Lady Vols.

Texas: Pretender

Vic Schaefer’s pressure defense has been effective all season: The Longhorns are holding opponents below 60 points per game for the first time in six years. It’s a defense that limited scoring juggernaut Iowa State (albeit without Ashley and Aubrey Joens) and Kansas State to under 50 points, and held Ayoka Lee to a human 45 percent from the field.

So why are they pretenders? Their three-game losing streak and .500 record in conference play raise some small red flags, but ultimately it comes down to how they score the ball. Much of the Longhorns’ offense comes from their ability to generate turnovers and get out and run. In the halfcourt, they rely on getting the ball on the rim and crashing the glass. When Texas goes up against teams who take care of the ball and have enough frontcourt size to keep them off the offensive boards, they run into trouble.

Texas also heavily eschews the 3-point line, ranking 326th in 3-point attempt rate. It’s another reason lengthy teams give them trouble — with so much of their scoring coming in the paint, good rim protectors can have a greater impact. Kansas’ Taiyanna Jackson and Tennessee’s Alexus Dye each had four blocks in wins over Texas, and Dye’s teammate, Tamari Key, racked up an incredible 10 blocks.

To be contenders, you have to be able to compete with South Carolina. With all the length and shot blocking ability the Gamecocks have, it’d be tough to imagine Texas scoring enough to win that matchup. Add in the fact that they rank 299th in free-throw percentage, and the odds of them holding a late-game lead over a pesky lower seed are even lower.

Indiana and UConn: It depends

This may be a bit of a cop-out, but the correct answer for each of these teams hinges on health and player availability.

For Indiana, that comes down to when Mackenzie Holmes can return. The Hoosiers weren’t deep even before she went down with a knee injury, but at full strength their starting five can compete with just about anybody in the country. Sans Holmes, Indiana has looked frighteningly beatable.

They’ve gone 4-1, but that includes three scares against non-tournament teams — an overtime win and a seven-point win over Purdue, and a win over Minnesota in which they trailed at the fourth-quarter media timeout — and a beatdown at the hands of Michigan. The Wolverines exposed the vulnerability of what’s left of Indiana’s frontcourt by out-rebounding the Hoosiers by a whopping 32.

According to CBB Analytics, Indiana has outscored opponents by 27.6 points per 100 possessions with Holmes on the court this year and just 7.9 without her, basically the equivalent of dropping from North Carolina to Fairfield. If Holmes is back, the Hoosiers can build on their Elite Eight run last year and make their first ever Final Four. Without her, don’t count on the Sweet 16.

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Azzi Fudd has provided UConn with a boost since she returned two weeks ago. (M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

From UConn’s perspective, Paige Bueckers is the obvious name that comes to mind, but health has been an issue up and down the roster all season. Azzi Fudd, Christyn Williams, Dorka Juhasz and Nika Mühl have all missed time at various points.

Like Indiana, the Huskies have been able to avoid too much damage in the loss column; Geno Auriemma’s squad has just one loss since Christmas. But like Indiana, UConn has looked human in some of its wins — something we aren’t used to seeing from this team in conference play. The Huskies have already won three Big East games by single digits, including an uninspiring eight-point win over sub-.500 Providence. And in that one loss, they had just six rotation players available and had no answer for Oregon.

The good news for UConn is that the last two wins have been dominant ones against quality competition, and Fudd finally looked like the No. 1 recruit in their 19-point win over Tennessee on Sunday. But even when Bueckers comes back, this team will have a lot of gelling to do before it’s at its peak. This is a program that hasn’t missed the Final Four since Android phones came out, but it’s important to remember that South Carolina ran away from them in their November matchup with Bueckers still on the court. The recent returns are promising, but to get back into that No. 1 conversation, they’ll need Bueckers at full strength.

Oregon: Contender

Oregon has dealt with as many personnel issues as UConn has, but the key for the Ducks is timing. Oregon has its rotation back, and, knock on wood, should have its full complement of stars for the final month of the regular season and into the postseason.

Upon getting healthy, Oregon went on an impressive run that included multiple top-ten victories to vault themselves back into the AP Poll top 20. That stretch says a lot about this team’s ceiling. The Ducks didn’t look the part in their Arizona trip this past weekend, but a combined 7-for-33 mark from 3 isn’t the type of performance that we should expect going forward.

Those two games are a good reminder that Oregon is still going to have ups and downs throughout the next month — it’s a group that had to wait until a few weeks ago to all play together, after all. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Kelly Graves going back to his time with Gonzaga, it’s that he knows how to have his teams playing their best basketball at the right time. When the calendar flips to March, look for the version of Oregon that knocked off two top-ten teams in one week.

Iowa State: Contender

In our championship betting preview last month, we wrote that we’d know a lot more about Iowa State after their games against Texas and Baylor. Turns out, all we really know is that the Joens sisters are critical to their team’s success.

Both Ashley and Aubrey missed their game against Texas due to COVID-19 protocols, and the Cyclones managed just 48 points in an 18-point defeat. The sisters returned against Baylor, but their shooting didn’t — they combined to hit just four of their 16 shots. Again, the Cyclones were on the wrong end of a lopsided score.

Iowa State has gotten back on track since, winning all four of their games by at least 15. It’s fair to wonder how they’d fare against the top of the Big 12 with their starters on the court and hitting shots. We’ll have to wait until the rematches later this month for that. For now, the metrics still love this team, as the Her Hoop Stats ratings and the Massey Ratings each have them in the top ten. Given how dangerous they’ve looked in all but one week this season, it’s hard to view the Cyclones as anything but contenders.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Every so often at this time of the year, we hear about a new watch list or semifinalist list coming out for a certain women’s college basketball award. Earlier this month, the Wooden Award Top 25 Watch List was released, and just last week, Her Hoop Stats narrowed the Hammon Award field to 15.

While debating the big-time awards is always fun (at least until things get too heated on Twitter), those awards tend to recognize more general accomplishments. Yes, there are defensive player of the year awards that focus on just one side of the floor, but what about shot blocker of the year or passer of the year?

In that spirit, we’ve rolled out the Impact Awards, inspired by Andy Dieckhoff’s Arthur Awards for Heat Check CBB on the men’s side. We’ve made a few tweaks to the formulas for our purposes, but the process is the same, so be sure to check out Andy’s piece for the details.

The short version: These awards are designed to honor players who do a terrific job at one specific role and, unlike the mainstream national awards which strongly rely on human opinion, every Impact Award is computed objectively based on a set of statistical criteria that represents its role. From each of those criteria, a score is calculated, and the top score determines the winner.

Here’s an overview of the awards and the stats associated with each (a plus sign in parentheses indicates that higher values in that category are desired; a minus sign indicates a lean toward lower values):

  • The Main Attraction – Usage (+), Offensive Rating (+), Effective FG Rate (+)
  • The Floor General – Minutes Played (+), Assist Rate (+), Turnover Rate (-)
  • The Artillery Gunner – 3-Point Percentage (+), 3PA/40 (+)
  • The Brick Wall – Block Rate (+), Defensive Win Shares (+), Fouls Committed/40 (-)
  • The Swiss Army Knife – 2-Pointer% (+), 3-Pointer% (+), Assist% (+), Turnover% (-), Off. Rebound% (+), Def. Rebound% (+), Block% (+), Steal (+)
  • The Junkyard Dog – Off. Rebound Rate (+), Def. Rebound Rate (+)
  • The Cutpurse – Steal Rate (+), Fouls Committed/40 (-)
  • The Unicorn – Block Rate (+), 3-Pointers Made (+), Assist Rate (+)
  • The Secret Weapon – Minutes Played (-), Off. Rating (+), True Shooting % (+)

The Main Attraction: Monika Czinano, Iowa

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There’s a certain irony about the winner of the Main Attraction being what most would consider the second attraction on her own team, but hey, blame the math. The sidekick to Caitlin Clark for the last season and a half, Czinano would certainly be the No. 1 option on over 300 teams in the country. The prolific senior is shooting over 65 percent from the field for the third straight season and is doing so on enough volume to average over 20 points per game. (And how about a special shoutout to the Big Ten for having three of the five players on this list?)

The Floor General: Kayla Padilla, Penn

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Interestingly, not everyone on this list is a point guard — some players like Rhyne Howard simply excel at both passing and protecting the ball. But it’s fitting that the winner is not only a point guard, but one of the best point guards in the Ivy League. Padilla already has some hardware in her trophy case after winning the 2020 Ivy League Rookie of the Year, and now she can add another award that’s almost as prestigious.

The Artillery Gunner: Taylor Robertson, Oklahoma

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In a surprise to absolutely no one, the Artillery Gunner Award goes to the Big 12’s career 3-point leader. Taylor Robertson has arguably been the best shooter in the country ever since she set foot on Oklahoma’s campus. Another Taylor is the only other player to come anywhere close, as Ohio State’s Mikesell has been lethal from deep this season.

The Brick Wall: Ayoka Lee, Kansas State

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Chalk up another one for Big 12 royalty. The superstar junior is second in the country in scoring (and is now the women’s NCAA Division I record-holder for most points in a game), but it’s her rim protection and defense that land her at the top of this leaderboard. Lee’s 3.5 blocks per game and 2.7 Defensive Win Shares each rank third in Division I, which is the biggest reason why Kansas State is one of just six teams in the top 15 percent in both preventing shot attempts at the rim and field-goal percentage allowed at the rim (per CBB Analytics).

The Swiss Army Knife: Aliyah Boston, South Carolina

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If there’s anyone who still views Boston as a one-dimensional post scorer, this should put an end to that conversation. The national Player of the Year candidate has upped her rebounding, passing and 3-point efficiency while cutting down on her turnovers in Year 3, and she’s also seeing career-high usage. This won’t be the last time you see her name on an awards list in 2022.

The Junkyard Dog: Josie Williams, Utah Valley

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DePaul’s Aneesah Morrow is the most recognizable name here, but it’s Utah Valley’s Josie Williams who earns the top spot. All five players on this list can rebound with the best of them, but Williams takes the cake by virtue of being the only one to do it for over 30 minutes a game. Williams also deserves credit for her year-over-year improvement: This is the third straight season in which she has increased her rebounding average by over two rebounds per game.

The Cutpurse: Mackenzie DeWees, Quinnipiac

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When someone beats out Veronica Burton in anything having to do with steals, you know they are an elite thief. Mackenzie DeWees of Quinnipiac has more steals than anyone in the country. Not only does she top Burton in steal rate, she fouls less often as well. If you’re careless with the ball around her, get ready for a layup on the other end.

The Unicorn: Addie Budnik, Richmond

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When Dieckhoff’s criteria for this award yielded only two players, I considered altering the criteria to match the other awards with a top five. Then I remembered what “unicorn” means — we use that word precisely because these players are so rare. So while Addie Budnik of Richmond is the winner, North Florida’s Jazz Bond deserves a silver for simply showing up on the board.

The Secret Weapon: Liz Shean, Boston University

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The last of our awards was created to give some love to those players who come off the bench and change the complexion of the game. No one does that more than Liz Shean of Boston University, who in 15 bench minutes per game is posting a usage rate and true shooting percentage on par with 2018-19 Teaira McCowan. Congratulations, Liz — you’re not a secret anymore!

*Unless otherwise noted, all stats were compiled from Her Hoop Stats for Division I competition only and are current through all games played on Jan. 22.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

It took almost two months, but in the last few weeks, U.S. regulated sportsbooks finally got around to giving us something to bet on in women’s college basketball. No, we don’t have lines on individual games yet — that probably won’t happen until March. But DraftKings, FanDuel and PointsBet have posted odds on which teams have the best chance at winning the national championship.

As frustrating as sportsbooks’ lack of attention to women’s basketball can be, it also provides an opportunity to profit off of them. None of the lines on any of these three books have moved since they were first posted, despite the constantly shifting landscape that gives us new information about teams every week. (Does it really make sense to still have UCLA tied for 13th?)

It’s in that spirit that we dove into the data to find the best bets on this year’s title winner. If you’re new to betting, the main thing you need to know about the odds is that the number following the plus sign is how much money you would make on a $100 bet. For the math-inclined folks, you can find the breakeven point of those bets by dividing the amount bet ($100 in this case) by the amount returned (the original $100 plus the winnings).

As an example, a team with +400 odds would return $500 on a $100 bet (the $100 back and the $400 winnings), so the breakeven point would be 100/500, or 20 percent. This is called the implied probability, and it means you need the bet to have a greater than 20 percent chance of winning for it to be a good bet.

Now, onto the important stuff.

South Carolina, +225 at DraftKings (30.8% implied probability)

The fact that this didn’t move after Missouri’s Lauren Hansen buried the Gamecocks last month is just one of many examples of sportsbooks neglecting to follow women’s sports. Then again, one could argue that it shouldn’t have moved: South Carolina had already separated itself from the pack so much that most people, including AP Poll voters, still view them as the best in the nation.

The best team isn’t always the best bet, but the +225 odds here are hard to pass up. Consider that it’s been over a decade since the champion wasn’t a No. 1 seed; No. 2 seed Texas A&M in 2011 was the last to do it. You even have to go back four years to Arike Ogunbowale’s 2018 Notre Dame squad just to find the last champion that wasn’t the No. 1 overall seed.

After South Carolina ran through the laughably difficult non-conference schedule Dawn Staley put together (pending the upcoming UConn rematch), it’s almost impossible to imagine their end-of-season resume being unworthy of a top seed. That Missouri game was an indicator of how far the parity in this sport has come, but it’s not quite at the point yet where the nation’s best team has to sweat out early-round games. All we need for this bet to have value is a one-in-three chance that South Carolina cuts down the nets.

Stanford, +600 at PointsBet (14.3% implied probability)

Like South Carolina, Stanford was able to withstand a loss without dropping in the AP Poll when they retained their No. 2 ranking after falling to the Gamecocks. Also like South Carolina, this team looks to be on its way to a No. 1 seed.

After an early-season stretch in which the Cardinal were a couple of buckets away from a 2-4 start, questions arose around the loss of point guard Kiana Williams and if this year’s team had enough to overcome it. Subsequent double-digit wins over top-ten opponents Maryland and Tennessee vaulted them right back into the top tier, and the nation was reminded that Tara VanDerveer’s Princeton offense doesn’t always rely on a pure point guard once it starts clicking.

The biggest factor that has allowed Stanford to compensate for its lack of a floor general, however, has been its defense. VanDerveer has generally been content to allow opponents to shoot 3s, particularly in recent seasons. The last four Cardinal teams have allowed opponents to take over 30 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, each ranking outside of the top 200 in 3-point rate allowed.

VanDerveer has changed her defense this season and looked to run shooters off the line, which has resulted in an opponent 3-point rate of just 21.7 percent — good for 12th in Division I. Draining triples is usually the best way to pull off a big upset, so preventing those shots from getting up in the first place is a great recipe for a deep tournament run. This probably isn’t the best bet on this list, but +600 is good enough to have some value.

NC State, +1500 at all three books (6.3% implied probability)

The last time NC State failed to make the Sweet 16, they lost in the second round to Texas and Ariel Atkins, who isn’t even on her WNBA rookie contract anymore. Yet, in the years since that 2017 loss, the Wolfpack have never reached the Elite Eight.

It’s about time. As good as those teams were, this is probably the best team Wes Moore has had in Raleigh. It took a Sarah Ashlee Barker miracle to hand the Wolfpack their only loss since they opened the season with a single-digit defeat at the hands of the team at the top of this list.

The Her Hoop Stats ratings and the Massey Ratings both have NC State in the top three, and after they pummeled previously-unbeaten rival North Carolina last week, it’s easy to see why. Nearly the entire rotation is shooting above 40 percent from 3, which makes this team almost impossible to guard when Elissa Cunane is on the floor commanding attention in the post.

At +1500 odds, the implied probability here is 1-in-16, which makes this an automatic value assuming NC State doesn’t miss the Sweet 16 for the first time in Cunane’s career. Once we hit the Sweet 16, all teams would have a 1-in-16 shot if they were equal, and it’s almost certain that NC State will be among the better teams in that group. This line should drop below +1000 at some point. To me, this is the best bet on the board, so grab it now before it’s too late.

Iowa State, +6600 at PointsBet (1.5% implied probability)

Rounding out PointsBet’s list of 18 teams are three teams tied for the longest odds: Iowa State, Kentucky and Tennessee at +6600. The Lady Vols have been the highest-ranked team among the three for most of the season, but the Cyclones are where I’m putting my money.

Ashley Joens and company were mere minutes from a Sweet 16 berth last season before Jordan Nixon happened, and just about the whole rotation from that team came back. Nobody has taken or made more 3s than Iowa State, and if current numbers hold, two of the nine teams in NCAA history to shoot over 81 percent from the free throw line will be 2020-21 Iowa State and 2021-22 Iowa State. That could come into play in March down the stretch of a tight tournament game.

The only blemish on the resume is a nine-point loss to LSU, and that looks a whole lot better now than it did at the time given how Kim Mulkey has her team playing. The Cyclones are in the top eight in the Her Hoop Stats ratings and the Massey ratings, and Charlie Creme’s latest bracketology has them as a No. 2 seed. If those spots hold, this 1.5 percent implied probability will look silly.

We’ll know a lot more about Iowa State after games next week against Texas and Baylor. As it stands, the Cyclones are looking like a serious contender to end Baylor’s reign atop the Big 12. Make sure you manage your bankroll responsibly and bet less on this than on a top team like South Carolina, but it’s definitely worth what those in the betting community would call “lunch money.”

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

We’ve reached a historic WNBA Finals, as the two teams with the lowest combined winning percentage in WNBA Finals history will square off for all the glory.

The No. 6 Sky made their way here by taking apart the top-seeded Sun, while the No. 5 Mercury clawed their way to a thrilling semifinal win in Game 5 over the Aces to set up a rematch of the 2014 Finals.

With so much on the line for the teams, it’s always fun to put something on the line for yourself as well. That’s where betting comes in.

Let’s get you set for everything you need to know to bet on the WNBA Finals.

Chicago Sky

The Sky present an interesting betting case as the quintessential “peaking at the right time” team. It’s often the case in sports that such teams find another gear to the extent that sportsbook models aren’t able to adjust fast enough.

This seems to be true with Chicago, who has not only won five of its six playoff games but also covered the betting spread in all five wins. That even includes two double-digit wins as underdogs.

Part of the reason is their elevated play, of course, and it wouldn’t be fair to ignore the contributions of players like Kahleah Copper or Azurá Stevens who have stepped up their game. But the presence of Candace Parker has been a key to this surprising run.

Much has been made of Chicago’s overall win-loss records with and without Parker this season, and that point remains true when looking at the records against the spread (ATS). At 11-11 with one push, the Sky were a .500 ATS team with Parker in the lineup during the regular season. In theory, every team should be a .500 ATS team if the sportsbooks are good at setting the lines.

In the nine games Parker missed, however, the Sky covered in just one of them. Combine that with the experience and intangibles the former champion brings to a franchise with no rings, and maybe we should have seen this coming.

Parker also had a significant effect on the totals during the regular season: The under hit in five of nine games without her on the floor but in just eight of the 23 games that she played. There were higher scoring totals in the games with last year’s Defensive Player of the Year on the court. Go figure.

Phoenix Mercury

It’s easy to forget now, but the Mercury entered the second half of the season firmly on the playoff bubble. They sat in seventh place at the Olympic break, just a game up on the ninth-place Wings.

What followed was a ten-game winning streak that cemented Phoenix’s status as contenders and earned their bettors lots of money in the process. The Mercury covered the spread in seven of their first eight games coming out of the break, and in doing so they launched themselves up the leaderboard of most profitable teams.

As it stands now, no team has earned its bettors more money on either the moneylines or the spread. Including the regular season and the playoffs, the Mercury are 25-13 against the spread (with a push) and would have earned $888 for bettors who bet $100 on all of their moneylines.

The concern for Phoenix going forward will be depth. With Kia Nurse’s season over and Sophie Cunningham still nursing an injury, Sandy Brondello played just seven players in Game 5 against Las Vegas. Kia Vaughn and Bria Hartley combined for 20 minutes, which was the entirety of the bench’s contributions.

Shey Peddy was sensational in the win — and has been for the last few games in which she’s been called on to step up — but the soon-to-be 33-year-old had played 30 minutes just once in her career prior to September. The injuries and heavy starter minutes in the Game 5 war against Las Vegas may come back to hurt the Mercury as they go deeper into the Finals.

Where Phoenix can make up for that is in the paint. Chicago doesn’t have a Liz Cambage, so Brittney Griner will have a decided size advantage over anyone Chicago can throw at her. Expect more doubles in this matchup, so Phoenix’s perimeter shooting will be vital.

Previous matchups

When talking about the history between these two teams, the 2014 Finals immediately come to mind. Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner all played in that one, in which Phoenix emerged with the trophy.

More relevant for betting on this year’s iteration, Phoenix took all three regular season matchups in 2021. The first two were without Parker on the floor, and both were essentially coin-flip games. One ended in overtime, the other gave us a half-court Eurostep for the win.

The Mercury took the last matchup by 20 points in the midst of their incredible August run. All three games closed with the home team favored by fewer than two points, and Phoenix covered in each game.

Before this year, the Sky had covered the spread in seven of their last eight matchups with the Mercury, including the last time they met in the playoffs — a 105-76 Sky win in the 2019 first round.

Home sweet home?

In typical pre-pandemic years, home-court advantage has been worth multiple points per game at basically any high level of basketball, including in the WNBA. After a 2020 season without home court for anyone, that factor was supposed to come back into play this season.

Not so, according to the numbers. Home teams outscored road teams during the regular season by less than half a point per game, and in the playoffs they’ve been practically even at 1,093 to 1,088.

Sportsbooks still don’t see it that way though. Lines for the semis moved by close to five points when the series shifted locations, a number that would have been consistent with past seasons’ data.

Home-court/field advantage has been steadily declining across most sports in recent years as replay review becomes more prevalent and limits the role of human error in officiating, but that wouldn’t be enough to explain the drastic drop in the WNBA this year. The culprit is presumably a combination of factors, such as fan restrictions at certain arenas and random variance.

Regardless, if bettors are looking for an edge on the spread in this series, the road teams may have one. They’ve covered in eight of 13 playoff games so far.

Half and quarter totals

Another edge for bettors may come in the over/unders for each half or quarter. Not all sportsbooks offer this, but the ones that do generally set those lines by dividing the game total by approximately two for the halves and by four for the quarters.

That’s already a little inefficient during the regular season, when games tend to get slower and teams average lower scoring during each successive quarter (and thus half). During the playoffs, that effect magnifies as the energy expenditure ramps up and legs tire even earlier.

This year, teams have totaled 1,121 points in the first half of all playoff games and just 1,013 in the second half. The quarter totals have dropped from 595 in first quarters to 489 in fourth quarters, marking an 18 percent decrease. It may be worth betting on the overs for the first half and quarter or on the second-half and fourth-quarter unders.

Series lines

Several sportsbooks are offering moneylines on the series winner, and they all like it to be a tight battle.

PointsBet Sportsbook has the Phoenix line at -120 and Chicago at +100, implying a 52 percent win probability for the Mercury.

Some books, PointsBet included, allow you to cash out your bet for the current value partway through (think of it like selling stocks). On those books, all you need for the Sky +100 side to turn a profit is for Chicago to steal one of two in Phoenix. If the series shifts to the Windy City knotted at one apiece, Chicago will likely take over as the favorite and that bet will increase in value.

Finals MVP

On Thursday, BetRivers Sportsbook posted Finals MVP odds for top players from the three teams remaining at that time. That list has been cut to 11 players, led by Griner and Taurasi with +300 odds each.

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Those odds work the same way as game and series moneylines, so check out our intro if you’re new to betting and are interested in putting money on a Finals MVP winner.

I’m looking at the point guards here for good longshot odds. Skylar Diggins-Smith is at +1000 while you can get Courtney Vandersloot for +1400.

In Diggins-Smith’s case, Griner and Taurasi are certainly more likely to take the award, but are they really over three times more likely? That’s what these odds imply, but the third member of the Big Three may be a little closer to the first two than that suggests.

As for Vandersloot, while voters do love to back the leading scorer (which will most likely be Copper), they also love all-around stats and leadership. As the veteran signal caller of the offense and the best passer in the league for several years running, Vandersloot has a pretty clear path to winning this award as well.

For a more likely bet, go with Parker at +400: Her status as a legend (and hometown hero) will be hard for voters to look past if the Sky win. Her odds are almost even with Copper, but that doesn’t accurately reflect the emotions and storylines that will be at play.

(Also, while I won’t recommend betting on her, can we just stop and appreciate the fact that Shey Peddy is on this list at all? You can actually bet on Shey Peddy to win the Finals MVP … and she’s even ahead of three players!)

The verdict

For both Game 1 (Chicago +3.5) and the series, I see more value on the Chicago side. The way the Sky are clicking and the near-disappearance of home court should be enough to keep this series close, and that favors the underdog. The extra few days of rest shouldn’t hurt either.

As far as the over/unders, we’re talking about a Chicago team who made us forget how historic Connecticut was on defense and a Phoenix squad that is better equipped to simply outscore them than to stop them. Both have smaller offensively minded backcourts as well. I’ll ride the overs unless they start to creep too high later in the series. Game 1’s line is at 166.5 on PointsBet, a spot at which I’m definitely comfortable taking the over.

Whether you put money on the games or not, enjoy the moment. It’s not every year that we get a matchup this enticing and unlikely, so sit back and take it in. It’s bound to be entertaining.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.