The WNBA semifinals are upon us. Each best-of-five series kicks off Tuesday night with an ESPN2 doubleheader of Game 1s.
Even though the same two teams are playing the entire time, betting can look a bit different for each game of a series. Factors such as home court, momentum and injuries can affect the sportsbook’s lines as well as the outcomes.
In that spirit, rather than just taking a look at Tuesday night’s games, let’s break down the broader numbers and trends to keep in mind for each of these four teams as you put your money down throughout the semifinals.
No. 6 Chicago Sky vs. No. 1 Connecticut Sun
Connecticut has been about as much of a headache for sportsbooks this season as it has been for opponents. Curt Miller has the Sun playing such a deliberate and defensive brand of basketball that they’ve held their opponents to a sub-70 scoring average, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished in this league in a decade.
It’s no surprise, then, that Connecticut games have been great for under-bettors. Including the Commissioner’s Cup final, the under has hit in two-thirds of Sun games — 22 of 33 — easily the most of any team in the league.
That’s also the number of games in which Connecticut has covered the betting spread, which leads the WNBA as well. No team has made the sportsbooks look more wrong on the spread or the over/unders than the Sun this year.
Yet, it’s possible that this team might only be getting better. Star forward Alyssa Thomas returned from an Achilles injury near the end of the regular season and got to shake off the rust with some valuable court time after the Sun had wrapped up the No. 1 seed. Adding an All-Star to the best team in the league — that already has the WNBA MVP favorite in Jonquel Jones — doesn’t seem fair.
Then there’s Miller’s playoff track record. Last season, his Sun came within a game of the Finals as the No. 7 seed. The year before that, they were minutes from stealing the championship from the Washington Mystics, one of the best teams ever with arguably the greatest offense of all time.
That track record has shown up in the betting results, too. As strong as Connecticut’s performance against the spread was this year — they outscored it by a league-leading four points per game — that number is over nine in their playoff games over the last two seasons.
If you don’t want to overthink it, there’s an argument to be made for betting on the Sun spread and the under in every Connecticut game. It’s been profitable so far.
So, what can the Sky do to change that?
For starters, they can box out. Chicago came into the playoffs with the worst defensive rebounding rate of any team in the field at 69.0 percent, but through two playoff games, that mark has jumped up to 75.3 percent. That would have been the difference between 10th and third in the regular season.
Keeping that energy on the defensive glass will be critical against a Sun team that led the league in offensive rebounding rate. Chicago will have to speed the game up if it wants to have a chance, and that starts with grabbing the boards and executing outlet passes.
Which leads to the second thing the Sky can do: Push the pace. Connecticut would love nothing more than to slow the game down and keep it in the halfcourt. With transition talent like Courtney Vandersloot, Kahleah Copper and Candace Parker on its side, Chicago will have to get out and run to neutralize Connecticut’s staunch halfcourt defense.
Tuesday night’s spread is Connecticut -7 at Caesars Sportsbook, and despite how improved Chicago has looked, I’ll continue to ride with the Sun until they give me a reason not to. Same goes for the totals: I’m going with the under on the line of 152.5 on principle given Connecticut’s record there. It also doesn’t hurt that the Sky and their rejuvenated defense hit the under in both of their playoff matchups.
As a Sky fan, I’d love to be wrong on the series, but I have to go with Connecticut. Chicago has played well enough to steal a game, so I’ll take the Sun in four.
No. 5 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Las Vegas Aces
It’s fitting that on the opposite side of the bracket from the best team for unders, we get the best team for overs — the Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces are the only team whose games have averaged more than a full point over the sportsbook totals, and they also sit atop the league in percentage of games hitting the over at 59 percent.
As the WNBA leaders in both offensive rating and pace, the Aces truly are the anti-Sun in many respects.
One commonality, however, is their interior play. A’ja Wilson and Liz Cambage form a dominant frontcourt that rivals that of the Sun. It will be entertaining to watch them match up with Brittney Griner and Co.
While all three regular season meetings between these teams were close, including an overtime game and a last-second finish on the final day of the regular season, the Aces are favored Tuesday night and should be in every game. It’s a position they have become accustomed to: They played just one game as an underdog on PointsBet Sportsbook all season. That came when they traveled to Connecticut in August.
When it comes to betting the totals for this series, it’s important to note that Las Vegas has played at a slower pace in the playoffs over the last two years. While the game in general typically slows down in the playoffs, as the tighter rotations and closer games lead to tired legs, the Aces’ drop in pace from regular season to postseason over that time has essentially doubled that of the rest of the league.
Then again, they didn’t have Chelsea Gray during those runs and didn’t have Kelsey Plum last year either.
On the other side, the Mercury have gone over in both of their playoff games so far, but the first one was by half a point and the second was in overtime. With the top two regular season offenses squaring off, the lines should be high in this series. But tread with caution on the totals early on.
If the Mercury want to pull the upset in the series, or even in Tuesday’s game, they’ll need to win the physicality battle. These were the top two teams in free-throw rate during the regular season as well as the top two in opponent free-throw rate. In other words, both were great at getting to the line and preventing the other team from getting there.
With what they give up in talent and backcourt size in this matchup, the Mercury will need to play clean defense and get Las Vegas in foul trouble on the other end.
They’ll also need to force turnovers, an area in which they were last in the league in the regular season. Given that Las Vegas also had the lowest turnover rate on offense despite its up-tempo style of play, if Phoenix’s guards and wings aren’t aggressive enough, the Aces could feast on offense.
The spread for Tuesday night’s game on Caesars Sportsbook sits at Las Vegas -5.5, and I’ll take the Aces to cover based on the volume of shots they should get up. Their frontcourt gets a lot of love, but I’m looking for the backcourt of Gray, Plum and Jackie Young to show up against the Mercury.
I also lean toward the over on the line of 169.5 given how well both offenses have played this year, although I’d hesitate to put money on that in Game 1 before seeing what this series looks like and how healthy Diana Taurasi looks.
In the series, I like the Aces to sweep, but with at least two of the games coming down to the final minutes.
Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.
Round two of the WNBA playoffs is set for today, and despite many calls for a format change, the No. 3-seeded Lynx and No. 4-seeded Storm will have to sweat out single-elimination games.
The winners of Sunday’s games will advance to the semifinals, where they’ll get rewarded with a five-game series against either Connecticut or Las Vegas. But first things first, let’s break down today’s action from a betting perspective.
No. 5 Phoenix Mercury at No. 4 Seattle Storm (3 p.m. ET, ABC)
Talk about an escape job. The Mercury survived and advanced in The Sophie Cunningham Game on Thursday with an 83-82 win over the pesky Liberty. It was Phoenix’s second straight one-point win in the first round after Shey Peddy’s buzzer-beater sent them to the second round last season.
Meanwhile, the Storm certainly weren’t expecting to be playing Sunday after entering the break in first place, but considering they needed a win over Phoenix in their final game just to avoid Round 1, they’ll take what they can get.
Had the Mercury won that game just over a week ago, this one would be taking place in Phoenix. But Jewell Loyd had other plans, dropping 28 first half points to lead her team to a 94-85 win without Breanna Stewart.
The Mercury were favored by two in that one, but PointsBet has Sunday’s spread set at Mercury -3.5. And the unfortunate reality is that the best bet in this one will probably come down to player health.
Diana Taurasi is currently questionable for the contest, while Stewart has been ruled out. If Taurasi suits up, the best bet is probably on the Mercury -3.5 line. Of course, if that happens, the line will move at some point during the day, but there should be time between the injury update and the line movement to get a bet down.
Availability aside, the other key to this game lies in Phoenix’s perimeter defense. Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith are one of the deadliest backcourt duos in the league when they have the ball, and Peddy and Kia Nurse are solid complements as well. But none of them have an easy time matching up with a guard like Loyd on the other end.
The Mercury’s win Thursday marked the eighth straight game that they have allowed their opponent’s highest-scoring guard to score above their season average, including that game in Seattle in which Loyd hung 37 on them. If they can’t find a way to slow down Loyd this time around, they might be in trouble, even without Stewart on the court.
Health and backcourt defense should have an impact on the over/under as well. That line is set at 160.5.
For whatever Taurasi lacks on defense at this stage in her career, we all know how capable she is of lighting up the scoreboard. Factor in that Phoenix plays nearly five more possessions per 40 minutes with her on the court this year, and her presence is vital for hitting the over.
I’d hold off on putting any money on either the spread or the total of this game until we get confirmation on Taurasi’s status. If you’re close to a computer when you get the updates, check the lines to see if you can bet them before they change accordingly.
No. 6 Chicago Sky at No. 3 Minnesota Lynx (5 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Death, taxes and Cheryl Reeve in September. The legendary coach once again has her team in prime position to make some noise in the playoffs.
But first, she’ll have to get past her former assistant, Chicago head coach James Wade. After single-elimination exits in each of his first two seasons at the helm, Wade and his squad are hungry to break through to the semis.
They’ll have to do it as sizable underdogs, as PointsBet’s spread is currently Chicago +4.
The matchup with the storylines will be Candace Parker versus Sylvia Fowles, who have been rivals ever since their college days in the SEC. But the X-factor matchup in this one will be Kahleah Copper versus Aerial Powers.
Including Copper’s 23-point showing in Chicago’s first-round win over Dallas on Thursday, the Sky are 6-2 when their leading scorer uses at least 25 percent of their possessions. When her usage rate drops below 17 percent, they are 0-4. Getting her looks will be important for Wade’s offense.
On the flip side, Powers has come on strong as of late after a slow start with her new team that was worsened by an early season injury. All four of Powers’ 20-point performances have come in Minnesota’s last six games.
Powers has struggled in her career against Chicago, shooting just 32 percent — a full 10 percentage points worse than her field goal percentage against other teams. But Reeve has unlocked something in her this month, so that should carry over into the playoffs.
Between that, Minnesota’s 8-3 record against the spread as home favorites, and Chicago’s 2-5 mark as road underdogs, I’m still taking Minnesota -4 in this one.
I’ll also go with the over on the 165.5-point total here. With all the usual small sample caveats, both of the teams’ regular season matchups broke 190.
Perhaps more relevantly, the Sky and the Lynx are second and third in the percentage of games in which they’ve hit the over, at 58 and 56 percent respectively, behind only the Aces and their top-ranked offense.
Chicago looked locked in defensively for much of its win over Dallas on Thursday, so if that team shows up again, then this over could be in trouble. But Minnesota is no Dallas offensively — Reeve’s group has been a well-oiled machine down the stretch. I’ll take my chances at 165.5.
Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.
The WNBA playoffs get underway tonight, which means it’s a great time to sit on your couch and watch basketball for four straight hours.
It’s also a great time to place some bets on the games. High-stakes hoops are always fun to watch — with something on the line, it’s only that much more exciting.
If you’re thinking about getting started on sports betting with one of the first-round games tonight, look no further. We’ve taken a look at the numbers to get you set for what to expect.
We’ll refresh you on some of the basics in our breakdown of the matchups below, but for more details on how basketball betting works in general, you can check out our primer.
No. 7 Dallas Wings at No. 6 Chicago Sky (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Remember when the Sky signed Candace Parker and were thrown into the championship contender discussion?
Well, those hopes aren’t dashed, but finishing .500 and getting the exact same No. 6 seed as they did last season probably weren’t part of Chicago’s plans.
On the other side, Vickie Johnson, in her first year as head coach, managed to navigate her young Wings team through several ups and downs and into the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
In terms of the betting lines for this game, sportsbooks like the Sky. PointsBet has the spread set at Chicago -5, meaning that you can bet on the Sky to win by at least six or you can bet on the Wings to come within four (including winning).
So, which side should you take? Dallas won two of the three matchups with Chicago during the regular season, including one in which the Wings’ lead swelled to over 30 in the first half before a late Sky run.
But both teams have faltered since then. The Wings entered the break with a net rating (margin per 100 possessions) of 1.8, which was in the top half of the league. Since returning, that number has fallen to -5.9.
Chicago is in a similar boat. The Sky’s net rating dropped from 3.1 pre-break to -1.3 afterwards, and they have only covered the betting spread in three of their 12 games since the Olympics.
With neither team entering the playoffs on a high note, momentum should be a wash, so talent and experience could be what wins the day. The entire Dallas Wings roster has combined to play 164 career playoff minutes. The Sky have four players who have individually played significantly more than that, including Candace Parker, who has logged ten times that many playoff minutes.
The Dallas franchise is headed in the right direction, but this game is about the Sky exorcising their playoff demons from the last two seasons. Roll with Chicago -5.
PointsBet has the over/under for this matchup at 167, so you can bet on whether the teams will combine for more or fewer than 167 points. Each of the first two matchups between Dallas and Chicago flew by this number — 172 and 191, respectively — but the third fell short at just 156.
Historically, playoff games have tended to be a little slower than regular season ones, but shot-making has also slightly improved in the playoffs. And teams with at least three days of rest have taken advantage of those fresh legs and pushed the pace.
I expect the Sky to get back to their identity as an up-tempo scoring machine while a young Dallas squad tries to match their pace, so I’m taking the over in this one.
No. 8 New York Liberty at No. 5 Phoenix Mercury (10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Somehow, somehow, the New York Liberty are playing playoff basketball tonight.
Never mind that they spent Sunday afternoon hanging out in their living rooms with the rest of us, rooting for two different games to go their way. Never mind that they have the lowest net rating of any playoff team in WNBA history. Never mind that they won two games a season ago.
They’re here.
Tonight, the new kids on the block bring their unique brand of swag to the desert to take on a Mercury team that’s almost paradoxically boring. Phoenix has played in this round in each of the six seasons of the new WNBA playoff format, including four times as the No. 5 seed.
The opener Thursday night isn’t the only game with a massive disparity in playoff experience. While Liberty players collectively have played 829 playoff minutes, just a few more than Wings players, only 17 of those have come from someone other than Sami Whitcomb or Natasha Howard.
And that number dwarfs in comparison to the playoff court time Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi have seen.
The other problem New York may face is keeping Griner out of the paint. The Liberty are perimeter-oriented by design — it’s how their five-out system set the WNBA record for 3-point rate this year.
But on defense, that means their thin front line can run into trouble on the interior at times. New York allowed the second-most shots in the restricted arc during the season and the most since the break.
Combine that with their league-worst turnover rate and the lowest rebounding rate among playoff teams and you have a recipe for an early exit. I’ll take Phoenix -9.5.
As far as the over/under of 165, it starts to get tough to predict. Among all of those obstacles the Liberty face, they should ride what got them here — the 3 ball. They have shooters all over the place, and they are capable of erupting at any moment.
If the Liberty squad that started the season 5-1 on better than 40 percent shooting from deep shows up, this game will easily pass the 170-point mark. But there’s also a version of this Liberty team that shoots 4-for-25 from beyond the arc, like they did in June against Chicago, or 7-for-25, like they did just nine days ago.
It’s because of that variance that I’d probably stay away from betting this total, but if I had to lean one way I’d go with the over due to Phoenix’s league-leading offense since the break and New York’s difficulties matching up on defense.
Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.
The WNBA playoffs are right around the corner, which means the spotlight on the league is growing. It also means it’s a great time to enter the growing betting landscape.
After all, what better way to — in the words of Nneka Ogwumike — “bet on women” than to literally bet on women?
The first step is to learn to read the odds and lines (or what odds and lines even are!). All the numbers, pluses and minuses can make your head spin, and for a rookie bettor, staring at them can feel like a rookie player staring at their new team’s playbook.
That’s where this primer comes in. If you’re new to the party and looking for the 101 course, we’ve got you covered. And if you’re not sure whether WNBA betting is for you, we’ve got you covered there, too.
Making sense of the numbers
There are three common types of bets you can place on a WNBA game. These aren’t the only available options, but if you’re new to betting, then they’re probably the only ones you need to care about.
When you click on a game on an online sportsbook’s website, the first thing you’ll see are the lines and odds for each of these three options — spread, total and moneyline. We’ll get to what those mean in a minute, but here’s an example from PointsBet Sportsbook for the game between Phoenix and Atlanta on Sept. 8.
Moneyline
In basketball, moneylines are the least common of the three — they are much more common in lower-scoring sports such as soccer or hockey — but they are also the most important to understand first. That’s because the way the odds work for moneylines also applies to almost all other types of bets.
The odds are just those pluses and minus you see in a sportsbook. In our example game, the Mercury had odds of -221 while the Dream’s odds were +175. While the numbers themselves may seem complicated at first, the concept of moneyline bets is simple: Who will win the game?
A minus number means that you have to bet that amount to win $100. A $221 bet on Phoenix to win the game would earn you $100 if the Mercury win. (Some books will tell you that the bet “returns” $321, which just means you get your original $221 back plus the $100 you won.)
Plus odds work the opposite way — you have to bet $100 to win that amount. If the Dream were to win, a $100 bet on them would win $175 (or return $275 including the original bet).
These odds work proportionally, so you don’t need to bet that exact amount. Instead of betting $100 on Atlanta to win $175, for example, you can bet $1 to win $1.75 or $1,000 to win $1,750.
Spread
Against the spread (ATS) bets are the most common form of basketball betting. These are bets on a certain team to win after a handicap is applied to their point total.
Sportsbooks will determine the amount by which the better team is favored, and you can then bet on that team to win either by more than that many points or fewer than that many (including to lose).
PointsBet favored the Mercury by 4.5 points in the Sept. 8 game, meaning Phoenix would have to win by five or more for that bet to win. An ATS bet on the Dream would win if Atlanta wins or if Atlanta loses by four or fewer points.
Put another way, if you subtract 4.5 points from Phoenix’s score (or add it to Atlanta’s) at the end of the game, then who won? That’s why that number — known as the spread or the line — is given a minus sign for the favorite and a plus sign for the underdog.
Sportsbooks generally try to set these lines at a mark where they believe each side has a 50 percent chance of winning, so unlike with moneylines, the odds are typically the same for both sides. Some sportsbooks deviate slightly from this norm, but the standard is -110. That number works the same way as the moneyline odds: Bet $110 to win $100.
Total
The third common type of basketball bet is a totals (or over/under) bet. This is a bet on the total number of points scored between the two teams, so if you want to bet on buckets or bricks, this is where you’ll make your hay.
In our game, if the teams combine for 155 or more points, the over wins. If not, the under cashes out. The odds work the same way as before and, like with spreads, they are usually around -110 on each side.
The other important thing to know when it comes to totals and spread bets is what a “push” is. You’ll notice that in the Mercury versus Fever game, the spread and the over/under are each set at a half-point mark, so it would be impossible to hit the exact line. But that’s not always the case.
Sometimes those lines are set at whole numbers. Let’s say the spread was instead Phoenix -5. If the Mercury won by exactly five, that would be a push, which means you would get your money back but wouldn’t win anything extra. Whole number totals work the same way.
Why bet on the WNBA?
Betting isn’t for everyone. It’s a personal financial decision that you should never feel pressured into trying.
If you approach it responsibly, however, there are pros to betting on the WNBA that can outweigh the cons (even beyond the obvious opportunity to grow your bank account).
Growing the game
Pretty much everything you do to get involved with the WNBA will help the league grow, from attending games or buying gear to interacting with WNBA-related social media posts.
Betting is just another one on that long list. Sports betting in general is already a booming industry, and it continues to grow rapidly as more and more states legalize it. The higher the share of the money and the wagers that get placed on women’s sports, the more they’ll become part of that equation.
Even if you don’t want to risk your own money, which is certainly understandable, engaging in discussions about the betting markets can still have an impact. Plenty of people make their “against their spread” picks online but don’t actually put money on the pick.
However you wish to participate in the league, participate in the league. It will only move things forward.
Taking advantage of the sportsbooks
Sportsbooks make money when they are smarter than you (read: when they pay more attention than you do). Sports like the NFL or the NBA see such unfathomable sums of money wagered that the books have to devote as many resources as possible to making sure their lines are as accurate as possible. If they aren’t, the books stand to lose millions, if not billions.
That isn’t true to nearly the same extent in the WNBA. As a result, sportsbooks often neglect the league to the point where their lines and odds are inefficient and exploitable.
For instance, the Lynx entered the season on most books with the eighth-best odds to win the championship. For a top-four team a year ago that returned nearly everyone and added multiple key free agents, it didn’t make a whole lot of sense.
A more relevant example for those who are planning on betting on single games using the three options listed above is injury updates. In the NBA or the NFL, if a key player’s status changes, the lines and odds on their game change almost instantaneously. A team who is favored by 13 and then has its star player ruled out will be favored by 10 or 11 before you have time to bet on the spread of 13.
In the WNBA, it can take hours for sportsbooks to account for injury updates. Players as impactful as Sylvia Fowles, Brittney Griner, and Candace Parker have all had updates to their status at some point this year without the spread of their game changing for a good chunk of the day. This leaves you with a window to bet on their team if they are declared healthy or to bet on their opponent if they are ruled out.
This opportunity, while profitable, ideally isn’t around for too many more years. If sportsbooks pay more attention to the WNBA and we lose out on chances to make money, that’s a substantial net positive. But as long as those advantages linger, we might as well cash in on them.
Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.