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NCAA Sweet 16 preview: trends, upsets and matchups

Arizona women's basketball.
@ArizonaWBB

When people talk about the current state of basketball, they love to talk about the rise of the three-pointer. Teams are learning to jack up three ball after three ball after three ball, whether or not it’s a good shot. A decent three is inherently more valuable than an easy two. Right?

Well, here we are at the Sweet 16 with, presumably, the 16 best college basketball teams in the country. The most interesting thing? Only one team (Stanford) scores 34.1% or more of their points from three-point range, putting them in the top 50 in the country. Only two teams rank within the top 100 — Stanford and Iowa. The nation’s leading scoring team, Maryland, only gets 27.1% of its points from three-point range, 188th in the nation.

The message is clear: An open two-pointer is still better than a contested three. It doesn’t matter if you play fast or slow, if you have two dominant bigs or five speedy guards. The NCAA’s top teams are all doing the same thing. They’re taking high percentage looks rather than shooting threes for the sake of it.

Knowing the three ball might not prove to be a difference maker, these are the three most interesting matchups of the weekend. 

Most likely upset: No. 2 Louisville vs No. 6 Oregon

During the first two games of the NCAA tournament, Oregon is playing some of its best basketball of the season. And Louisville is playing some of its worst. 

The Cardinals have posted an offensive rating below 100 in five of their last seven games. That wasn’t the case for most of the season. In 17 of their previous 21 games, they posted an offensive rating above 100. During this bumpy stretch, Louisville’s star guard, Dana Evans, has averaged just 14.8 points per game while shooting 32.7% from the field.

The Ducks and their suffocating zone defense won’t help much with Louisville’s offensive woes. And the Ducks’ success is directly tied to their defense. In all but one of their 15 wins, opposing teams have shot below 40% from the field. In all but one of their 8 losses, teams have shot above 40%. If Oregon can continue funneling offensive players into 6-foot-5 Nyara Sabally and 6-foot-7 Sedona Prince, they could walk away with another upset.

Most underrated game: No. 2 Maryland vs No. 6 Texas

Of the eight Sweet 16 matchups, Maryland has the second highest chance of winning at 86.6% according to Her Hoop Stats. But don’t write off Texas just yet. Led by forward Charli Collier, a Big 12 All-Defensive selection, and guard Celeste Taylor, who averages 2.2 steals per game, the Longhorns have quietly emerged as one of the country’s strongest defensive teams. In the last 11 games, they have allowed more than 70 points just once. 

But Maryland is a different beast. They put up 91.3 points per game, shoot 40.6% from three, and feature six (six!) players who average double figures. Here’s the thing: Texas has played Baylor — the country’s third ranked scoring offense — three times this season. The Longhorns lost all three of those games, but they held Baylor to 60, 64, and 66 points in each of those outings — three of Baylor’s lowest scoring outings all season. It’s clear that Texas can shut down the NCAA’s best offenses, but it’s unclear if they can score enough in return. 

The difference is, Maryland can’t play defense like Baylor. Could Texas slow down Maryland enough to eke out a win? It’s certainly a possibility. And if Texas can’t stop Maryland, at least you’ll get to watch the Terrapins go for 100 points — for the eighth time this season.

Best head-to-head matchup: Jordan Nixon (No. 2 Texas A&M) vs Aari McDonald (No. 3 Arizona)

Yes, I know, Caitlin Clark versus Paige Bueckers is the most exciting first round matchup. But that’s too easy. I’ll take a different route how about Texas A&M guard Jordan Nixon vs. Arizona guard Aari McDonald? 

Nixon has been arguably the hottest player in the tournament thus far, averaging 23 points per game while shooting 57.8% from the field. McDonald, who was named Pac 12 Player of the Year and Co-Defensive Player of the Year, is arguably the best defender in the country. And McDonald’s playing some solid basketball of her own. Just look at the fourth quarter of Arizona’s last game.

With five minutes left in the Round of 32, the Wildcats trailed BYU by five points. That is, until McDonald willed them to victory. She scored seven points in those final minutes, hitting a mean step back, blazing by her defender for a lay-up, and then sealing the game with a steal. 

“It might’ve been the best five minutes by a UA basketball player, any gender, any game, since Miles Simon at the 1997 Final Four,” wrote Greg Hasen of the Arizona Daily Star.

It’s almost a cliche at this point, but it’s true: In March, you need clutch guards. This matchup has two of them.

Gotham FC Signs Record-Breaking Sponsorship Deal with Dove

Emily Sonnett shows off the new Dove sponsorship above her last name on her Gotham jersey.
Dove's partnership with Gotham is the brand's first major investment in a women's sports team. (Gotham FC)

Gotham and Dove are teaming up, with the 2023 NWSL champs signing a record-setting multi-year kit partnership with the beauty brand on Thursday.

As Dove's first major investment in a women's sports team, the move also ranks as the highest-ever back-of-jersey sponsorship deal in NWSL history.

While Gotham did not provide specific numbers, the contract surpasses Bay FC's then-record $500,000 deal with private equity giant Sixth Street.

Dove joins Gotham in fight to keep girls in sports

The partnership is a part of Gotham's "Keep Her in the Game" initiative, a community effort launched last August to help adolescent girls stay in sports. Dove will serve as the program's presenting sponsor.

"Dove is the ultimate leader in female strength and empowerment, and we could not be prouder to partner with the brand in a number of impactful ways," Gotham FC chief business officer Ryan Dillon said in the team's release. "We are excited to team up with Dove to create key pathways for young female athletes to stay in sports, develop confidence, and become strong future leaders."

"The partnership is taking effect at a crucial time when supporting girls in sports has never been more important."

With girls twice as likely as boys to abandon sports by age 14, "Keep Her in the Game" aims to bolster young athletes' resilience and amplify the joy and connection that happens on and off the playing field.

After impacting 30 local New Jersey and New York youth clubs and more than 500 players in 2024, the initiative is aiming to double its reach in 2025. It will also pass the proverbial mic to the young athletes themselves by creating a Youth Leadership Council.

"The data is clear: Sports build confidence, leadership skills and resilience in young women, benefiting them for years to come," stated Laura DiMiceli, the head of personal care sports marketing for Dove's parent company, Unilever North America. "Dove is committed to supporting 'Keep Her in the Game' as part of our overall mission to help young girls pursue sports and keep playing the games they love."

Unrivaled to Crown First-Ever 1v1 Tournament Champion

Lunar Owls forward Napheesa Collier dribbles the ball during an Unrivaled game.
Napheesa Collier is one of four Unrivaled players competing for the 1v1 tournament's $200,000 prize. (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Unrivaled 3×3 Basketball will crown its first-ever 1v1 tournament champion on Friday night, when all four semifinalists take the court with a $200,000 grand prize on the line.

Vinyl guard Arike Ogunbowale will kick off the semis against Mist forward Aaliyah Edwards, before Unrivaled co-founder and Lunar Owls forward Napheesa Collier faces Rose forward Azurá Stevens. The victors will immediately advance to the night's best-of-three final series.

Notably, Friday's set puts alma mater pride on center court. A trio of UConn alums in Collier, Stevens, and Edwards will all clock in, while Ogunbowale reps Notre Dame — one of just three teams to beat the Huskies this NCAA season.

Along with those priceless bragging rights, the semifinalists are battling for a six-figure payday, though none will leave empty-handed. Each are guaranteed at least $25,000, with $50,000 on deck for the tournament's runner-up.

The players' Unrivaled teammates will also be watching with interest, as the winner's entire 3×3 team will snag $10,000 each.

Though 1v1 can feel like a schoolyard version of basketball, with this much money involved, expect the competition to rise miles above playground tussles.

Rose BC's Angel Reese defends Mist forward Aaliyah Edwards during an Unrivaled game.
Aaliyah Edwards is one of three UConn alums in the Unrivaled 1v1 semifinals. (Rich Storry/Getty Images)

Endurance could decide Unrivaled 1v1 tournament champion

Friday's format is in part a test of stamina, as players stare down a grueling schedule where the eventual winner must play either three or four 1v1 games in a single night.

To that end, Collier's elite conditioning could make her the favorite, if she can outlast Stevens in the pair's semifinal.

"Her motor is unmatched," Stevens said of Collier's endurance, a key factor in her success so far. "I try to conserve some energy in between possessions, especially when the games get really tiring."

Motors aside, Friday's title will boil down to fundamentals — and which athlete best leverages their personal skillset.

"I have to use my size and stick to my strengths," said Edwards. "It’s about imposing my will and getting the job done."

How to watch the Unrivaled 1v1 tournament finals

The inaugural Unrivaled 1v1 tournament concludes on Friday. Live coverage begins at 7:30 PM ET on TNT.

USC Beats UCLA as JuJu Watkins Ends Bruins’ Undefeated NCAA Season

USC's JuJu Watkins drives to the basket between UCLA's Janiah Barker and Elina Aarnisalo.
Watkins scored 38 points to hand UCLA their first loss of the season. (Robert Hanashiro/Imagn Images)

The last perfect DI basketball season has officially fallen, as USC phenom JuJu Watkins put up a historic performance to lead the No. 6 Trojans to a 71-60 win over then-undefeated No. 1 UCLA on Thursday.

Watkins finished the night with 38 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, and eight blocks, becoming the first DI player to register an overall stat-line so robust in 20 years.

"It took everything. It's been a rough couple weeks for me," Watkins said after the game, referencing uncharacteristic performances leading up to Thursday's rivalry matchup. "To be able to kind of snap back into it and get into my rhythm here at Galen versus UCLA, it's really all I could ask for."

"I'm really just like a kid out there and living out my dream."

Throughout the back-and-forth battle, Watkins's consistency made all the difference. She scored every one of USC's 14 second-quarter points, and helped lead a monster fourth quarter in which the Trojans slammed the door by outscoring the Bruins 24-8.

"I didn't teach JuJu any of that," commented USC head coach Lindsay Gottlieb after the game. "[I] just try to put her in situations to be her best self, and she does most of that work. What I was so impressed with tonight, obviously, was just the mentality she came out with."

With the marquee win, USC now sits firmly atop the Big Ten. That said, UCLA will have a chance to avenge the loss in the pair's March 1st rematch, when that final regular-season game could decide the conference title.

Until then, the Trojans will be riding high on their Thursday night dominance.

"We'll never forget this night," Gottlieb said. "It's as good as anything I've ever seen."

UConn star Paige Bueckers dribbles the ball during a game.
UConn takes on South Carolina on Sunday. (Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)

How to watch Top 10 NCAA basketball this weekend

With no undefeated teams left in DI basketball, Watkins's performance has put the field on notice to not make any assumptions about who might end up on top.

While Sunday will see USC roll against unranked Washington and UCLA try to bounce back against No. 22 Michigan State, the NCAA slate will also serve up two huge Top 10 matchups.

First, No. 7 UConn will take their final major regular-season test when they visit No. 4 South Carolina at 1 PM ET, when Paige Bueckers and the Huskies will aim to pull off a similarly impressive USC-inspired upset.

Then at 3 PM ET, No. 5 LSU heads to No. 3 Texas, where the Tigers will hunt their first win over the Longhorns in more than 22 years.

Both elite meetings are set to air live on ABC.

Pro Women’s Lacrosse League Debuts at WLL Championship Series

A promotional graphic for the WLL Championship Series.
The WLL played its first-ever pro games at this week's Lexus Championship Series. (ESPN)

The brand-new professional Women's Lacrosse League (WLL) made its official debut this week just outside of Washington, DC, where its first-ever game saw the New York Charging take down the Maryland Charm 14-13 in the WLL Championship Series.

After the inaugural Tuesday result, the action continued on Wednesday, when the California Palms opened their WLL account by getting the better of the Boston Guard in a tight 16-15 matchup.

Founded and run by the Premier Lacrosse League, the WLL fosters top-level competition as the sport gears up for its 2028 Olympic return.

The four-team WLL Championship Series follows an Olympic-style "sixes" format. Unlike traditional lacrosse, which uses a larger pitch and 10 athletes per team, sixes employs a condensed field with six players per side.

In the Championship Series, teams are first competing in three round-robin games to determine semifinal seedings. The tournament will culminate with the knockout semifinal and final rounds on Sunday and Monday, respectively.

Team USA lacrosse star Charlotte North gestures during a 2022 World Championship game.
Team USA star Charlotte North competes for the WLL's Boston Guard. (Ryan Hunt/Getty Images)

WLL looks to level up lacrosse ahead of 2028 Olympics

Despite the competition's quick turnaround, the WLL represents a growing professionalization movement in women's lacrosse — with all involved betting big on the sport's Olympic success in LA.

When lacrosse steps back onto the Olympic stage in 2028, it will have been 80 years since its last 1948 outing — and even then, it was merely a demonstration event. The last time the sport earned medals was in 1908.

Furthermore, the sport's entire Olympic history rests in the men's game — 2028 will see women take the Olympic lacrosse pitch for the first time ever.

"We are honored to be a part of the WLL, and we couldn't be more excited to bring this game to the fans in new ways than ever before," said Boston Guard star Charlotte North in a league statement.

"We firmly believe that this is the beginning of what will be a monumental movement in the game of professional women's lacrosse, and for female athletes around the globe.... It's our time."

Former Northwestern lacrosse star Izzy Scane shoots the ball during an NCAA game.
Izzy Scane, the NCAA DI lacrosse career scoring leader, plays for the New York Charging. (Greg Fiume/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

How to watch the WLL Championship Series

The tournament's round-robin play continues with the Maryland Charm facing off against the Boston guard at 9 PM ET on Thursday, before the California Palms contend with the New York Charging at 6 PM ET on Friday.

All WLL Championship Series games will stream live on ESPN+, with Sunday's and Monday's knockout rounds airing live on ESPN2.

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