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NCAA Tournament Contenders: By The Numbers

@GAMECOCKWBB

Another year, another excellent season of college basketball, right?

Normally, we’d be fiercely debating over the rankings of the top teams, arguing over who deserves a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Instead, everyone’s just hoping to make it to the tournament safely, so that the season will be allowed to end in fireworks and (fanless) fanfare in San Antonio, with the long-awaited return of March Madness.

It’s no secret that the NCAA very badly needs the tournament to be played, even as a growing number of teams choose to cancel their seasons. While some teams are just trying to string together multiple games at this point, the top teams are all jostling for tournament seeds.

The lack of marquee non-conference games and the on again, off again scheduling makes it difficult to evaluate even the best teams. How do you compare a narrow win against a worse opponent to not playing at all? Do we rank teams at top strength or try to identify which teams are best prepared to weather the absence of their starting point guard or even their coach?

It’s harder than ever to rank the top teams, but that only means we have to look even closer at the stats. Ignoring the headlines in order to follow the numbers, here are the six teams with a real shot at the 2021 national championship.

 

LOUISVILLE IS READY FOR THE SPOTLIGHT

It would be tough to look past Louisville (14-0 ACC), who last week passed their first real test as the new No. 1 team, beating then-No. 23 Syracuse 67-54. Through the rest of the season, Louisville will want to show that it can handle playing on the road (the team has only gotten four road games in, the last one a two-point nail-biter against Wake Forest) and move up in the NET, where they are currently ranked fifth. Winning should take care of both. Add that to a team with the fourth-best field goal percentage in the entire country (49.0%) and Louisville is set up to find tournament success, regardless of their opponents.

Reigning ACC Player of the Year Dana Evans has continued to play phenomenal basketball and is averaging 19.5 points and 4.6 assists per game. The other three Cardinals in double figures are Hailey Van Lith (13.2) Kianna Smith (12.8) and Olivia Cochran (12.5). Van Lith and Cochran are both freshman tied for the team high with an impressive 6.4 rebounds per game. Louisville might not have expected them to contribute so much in their first year, and we might not have expected Louisville to be the No. 1 team at this point in the season, but as we head into February, they’re every bit deserving of the top seed.

 

UCONN LOOKS DOMINANT (AGAIN)

The top-ranked team in the all important NET, No. 3 UConn (10-0 Big East) is once again looking like a prohibitive favorite. In the entire nation, the Huskies are first in field goal percentage (53.5%) and scoring margin (37.3). The offense is clicking for 87 points and 22.3 assists per game, while the defense is holding opponents to below 50 points per game and 30% shooting.

Olivia Nelson-Ododa has established herself as a leader on and off the court, epitomized by her 65.3% field goal percentage and 2.1 blocks per game. And the latest headline-grabbing performance by freshman Paige Bueckers — 3-for-14 shooting but the will to hit a clutch 3 on a rolled ankle against Tennessee, and of course the eight rebounds and seven assists — is just more evidence of why the expectations for her were so high before she even played a game.

Bueckers is averaging a team-high 17.1 points and 2.9 steals per game as well as the nation’s 33rd most assists per game (5.1). The average NET rating of the teams UConn has beaten is 108, better than all but three other teams in the AP top 10, and convincing evidence that the Huskies are ready for a deep tournament run.

 

NC STATE: THE OTHER UNDEFEATED ACC SQUAD

Although they have only seen the court twice in 2021, No. 2 NC State (11-0 ACC) is still a tournament threat. Emerging from COVID quarantine, the Wolfpack looked rusty in a 89-87 win over Virginia Tech, needing to rally from 14 points down in the fourth quarter. They were without their star player, however, as Elissa Cunane is recovering from COVID. In the team’s previous game (all the way back on January 3rd against Boston College) Cunane didn’t even miss a shot en route to a perfect 9-of-9 from the field for a season-high 24 points.

Cunane has been superb all year long with a 58.2% shooting rate that is the 18th best in the entire sport, and Kayla Jones is right there at 57.3%. Between the efforts of Cunane, Jones, Jakie Brown-Turner and Jada Boyd, NC State averages a nation-high 33.8 defensive rebounds per game, with all four players averaging at least 5.7 rebounds per game. That defensive hustle and offensive efficiency should let the Wolfpack run with anyone. They’ll need both for their biggest game of the year: a February 1st showdown with No. 1 Louisville.

 

SOUTH CAROLINA IS FINDING THEIR GROOVE

As Aliyah Boston finds her footing, South Carolina (12-1 SEC) is looking more and more like the team everyone had ranked No. 1 preseason. Boston scored 26 with 16 rebounds and six blocks against then-No. 15 Arkansas only to return the very next game with a triple double, 16-11-10, against then-No. 22 Georgia. The reigning National Freshman of the Year is beginning to assert herself as a dominant big on both ends of the floor.

For most of the season, Zia Cooke has carried the scoring load, averaging 15.9 points per game. Nevertheless, in three straight games facing Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, Cooke failed to reach double digit scoring. The Gamecocks still managed to win those games by an average of 30 points, and Cooke responded with 16 in the win over Georgia as Dawn Staley’s team showed how dominant they could be with all cylinders clicking.

The NCAA’s NET metric ranks South Carolina third on the strength of their 7.6 blocks per game (1st) and 19.9 rebound margin (2nd). For a team with the highest aspirations, the plan is coming into focus: dominate in the paint and score by committee.

 

DON’T COUNT STANFORD OUT YET

No team has faced a more challenging schedule than No. 6 Stanford (12-2), but the Cardinal nonetheless held on to the top spot in the AP poll for six weeks before faltering in an uncharacteristic lack of focus against Colorado, before then losing to then-No. 6 UCLA. While the team won’t make excuses, it’s worth noting that Stanford has played just one game in its home gym of Maples Pavilion while living out of hotels since early December. And when you look at their opponents, only South Carolina has more quality wins.

Head coach Tara VanDerveer, who passed the legendary Pat Summitt to become the winningest coach in the sport earlier this season, has compiled another talented squad with the hopes of winning a national championship for the first time since 1992. VanDerveer will need Haley Jones to continue to play every position 1-4, Cameron Brink to limit her fouls so that she can see more floor time as an intimidating interior presence and lethal outside shooter, and Kiana Williams to hit shots at a higher rate. No one, however, will be more important than Anna Wilson, whose defense has been the cornerstone of the team’s identity as it navigates the best conference in the country. Despite their two losses, Stanford still has the talent and the coaching to win it all this year.

 

BAYLOR: THE STILL-DEFENDING CHAMPS STILL HAVE A CHANCE

All over the nation’s leaderboard despite their two losses, No. 9 Baylor (10-2 Big 12) cannot be counted out just yet. No team does a better job on the boards (+20.4), and only UConn has been outscoring its opponents by more than Baylor’s 35.1 points per game. The offense has enough ball movement to rank first with 24.7 assists per game and the defense is staunch enough to hold opponents to 29.5% from the field.

With the sixth-highest NET rating despite an uncharacteristic loss to Iowa State, Baylor has shown the signs of a team affected by the pandemic. Head coach Kim Mulkey missed time with COVID-19, as did guard DiJonai Carrington and forward Caitlin Bickle, who both did not play in the loss to Iowa State which snapped a 61-game home winning streak. Given the lack of practice time leading up to the game, Mulkey was not shocked by the result. Even less surprising was Baylor’s dominant win over Oklahoma State in response.

Nalyssa Smith has averaged a double-double with 17.1 points and 10.0 rebounds playing just under 30 minutes per game. DiDi Richards is 13th nationally with 6.1 assists per game, and Carrington is 22nd with 3.0 steals per game. They may not generate the headlines, but Baylor is simply too good to ignore, and they’re a team no one will want to face when it comes to tournament time.

USWNT Vet Carli Lloyd Announces Pregnancy After ‘Rollercoaster’ IVF Journey

retired soccer player carli lloyd
Lloyd will welcome her first child with husband Brian Hollins this October. (Dennis Schneidler/USA TODAY Sports)

Longtime USWNT fixture Carli Lloyd took to Instagram Wednesday morning to announce that she’s pregnant with her first child. 

"Baby Hollins coming in October 2024!" she wrote. The caption framed a collaged image of baby clothes, an ultrasound photo, and syringes indicating what she described as a "rollercoaster" fertility journey.

In a Women’s Health story published in tandem with Lloyd’s post, the Fox Sports analyst and correspondent opened up about her struggles with infertility and the lengthy IVF treatments she kept hidden from the public eye.

"Soccer taught me how to work hard, persevere, be resilient, and never give up. I would do whatever it took to prepare, and usually when I prepared, I got results," Lloyd told Women’s Health’s Amanda Lucci. "But I found out that I didn’t know much about this world. I was very naive to think that we wouldn’t have any issues getting pregnant. And so it began."

Lloyd went on to discuss her road to pregnancy in great detail, sharing the highs and lows of the process and expressing gratitude for the care and support her family and medical team provided along the way. She rounded out the piece with a nod toward others navigating the same challenges, encouraging people to share their own pregnancy journeys, painful as they may be.

"My story is currently a happy one, but I know there are other women who are facing challenges in their pregnancy journey. I see you and I understand your pain," she said. "My hope is that more and more women will speak up about this topic, because their stories helped me. I also wish for more resources, funding, and education around fertility treatments. There is much to be done, and I hope I can play a role in helping."

The 41-year-old New Jersey native retired from professional soccer in 2021, closing out her decorated career with 316 international appearances, the second-most in USWNT history, in addition to 134 international goals. A legend on the field, Lloyd walked away from the game with two World Cups, two Olympic gold medals, and two FIFA Player of the Year awards.

Project ACL addresses injury epidemic in women’s football

arsenal's laura wienroither being helped off the field after tearing her acl
Arsenal's Laura Wienroither tore her ACL during a Champions League semifinal in May 2023. (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

On Tuesday, FIFPRO announced the launch of Project ACL, a three-year research initiative designed to address a steep uptick in ACL injuries across women's professional football.

Project ACL is a joint venture between FIFPRO, England’s Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA), Nike, and Leeds Beckett University. While the central case study will focus on England’s top-flight Women's Super League, the findings will be distributed around the world.

ACL tears are between two- and six-times more likely to occur in women footballers than men, according to The Guardian. And with both domestic and international programming on the rise for the women’s game, we’ve seen some of the sport's biggest names moved to the season-ending injury list with ACL-related knocks.

Soccer superstars like Vivianne Miedema, Beth Mead, Catarina Macario, Marta, and England captain Leah Williamson have all struggled with their ACLs in recent years, though all have since returned to the field. In January, Chelsea and Australia forward Sam Kerr was herself sidelined with the injury, kicking off a year of similar cases across women’s professional leagues. And just yesterday, the Spirit announced defender Anna Heilferty would miss the rest of the NWSL season with a torn ACL. The news comes less than two weeks after Bay FC captain Alex Loera went down with the same injury. 

Project ACL will closely study players in the WSL, monitoring travel, training, and recovery practices to look for trends that could be used to prevent the injury in the future. Availability of sports science and medical resources within individual clubs will be taken into account throughout the process.

ACL injuries in women's football have long outpaced the same injury in the men's game, but resources for specialized prevention and treatment still lag behind. Investment in achieving a deeper, more specialized understanding of the problem should hopefully alleviate the issue both on and off the field.

USC enters superteam era with transfer portal gains 

Oregon State transfer and USC recruit Talia von Oelhoffen at 2024 NCAA women's tournament
Oregon State transfer Talia von Oelhoffen adds fuel to USC's 2025 NCAA title dreams. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

With recent transfers Talia von Oelhoffen and Kiki Iriafen joining first-team All-American JuJu Watkins and the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class at USC next season, the Trojans look to transition from an up-and-coming squad to a legitimate title contender. 

Former Oregon State graduate student von Oelhoffen is the latest collegiate talent to commit to the program, announcing her transfer Monday via ESPN. She follows ex-Stanford leading-scorer Iriafen in the jump to the pair’s one-time Pac-12 rival.

The 5-foot-11 Washington native was a two-time All-Pac-12 guard during her time at Oregon State. But after the recent dissolution of the Pac-12, the Corvallis side found themselves without a permanent home conference going forward. Many big name players opted to take their skill elsewhere as a result, with von Oelhoffen’s fellow ex-Beaver Raegan Beers announcing her own departure to Oklahoma on Monday.

According to DraftKings, USC is now tied with UConn for the second-best betting odds to win the 2025 NCAA women’s tournament. Dawn Staley’s tested South Carolina side, poised for a repeat performance, holds down the number one spot.

Last year, LSU loaded up in the transfer portal after beating Iowa to win the 2023 national championship. The Tigers were clear favorites coming into the 2023-24 season, but were bounced in the Elite Eight by Caitlin Clark’s Hawkeyes. Shortly thereafter, star transfer Hailey Van Lith opted to transfer a second time, this time signing with TCU. 

Yet while history proves that an excess of star power doesn’t always translate to on-court chemistry, on paper, USC sure looks ready to hold their own — in 2025 and beyond.

U.S., Mexico drop bid to host 2027 Women’s World Cup 

uswnt fans cheer at 2023 fifa women's world cup in australia
USWNT fans will have to settle for cheering on their home team from abroad in 2027. (Brad Smith/USSF/Getty Images for USSF)

The United States and Mexico have withdrawn their joint bid to host the 2027 Women’s World Cup, per a Monday afternoon release from U.S. Soccer and the Mexican Football Federation.

According to the statement, they will instead focus on developing a "more equitable" bid for the 2031 tournament, with the ultimate goal of "eliminating investment disparities" between the men’s and women’s tournaments.

The federations went on to cite the upcoming 2026 Men’s World Cup in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico as an opportunity to build support for local infrastructure, improve audience engagement, and scale up media and partnership deals in preparation to "host a record-breaking tournament in 2031."

"Hosting a World Cup tournament is a huge undertaking — and having additional time to prepare allows us to maximize its impact across the globe," said U.S. Soccer President Cindy Parlow Cone. "Shifting our bid will enable us to host a record-breaking Women’s World Cup in 2031 that will help to grow and raise the level of the women’s game both here at home as well as across the globe."

The decision leaves just Brazil and a joint bid from Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands in the running for the 2027 host spot. Brazil — the rumored frontrunner — has never hosted a Women’s World Cup, while Germany hosted the 2011 tournament as a solo venture. 

Furthermore, this postponement doesn’t mean the U.S. is a shoo-in for 2031, as it's been previously reported that 2022 UEFA Women's EURO host England is considering their own Women's World Cup bid. FIFA is scheduled to confirm the winning bid after the FIFA Congress votes on May 17th.

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