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Why the Liberty are pulling ahead in WNBA championship odds

Courtney Vandersloot, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones have continued to step up for the Liberty in the second half of the season. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

The New York Liberty have flipped the script.

When the teams met in June for the first time this season, a lopsided Aces win gave Las Vegas a leg up in the 2023 WNBA championship conversation. Then, it was New York’s turn to deliver a blow, winning their second matchup on Aug. 6 by a wide margin.

And on Tuesday night, the Liberty took a 2-1 lead in the season series with an 82-63 victory in the Commissioner’s Cup championship game. They hoisted the trophy, pocketed bonuses, secured money for Callen-Lorde (the charity of the team’s choosing) and brought a new school of thought to the table. While the Commissioner’s Cup championship doesn’t count toward the regular season standings, it matters in the grand scheme of how these teams match up.

And in that bigger picture, the pieces of the superteam are finally meshing, and cracks are beginning to appear within the Aces. In the ongoing battle of the WNBA superteams, New York is ahead.

The Liberty are now the favorites to win the WNBA championship.

Both teams have stars. Both teams have former WNBA players and title winners at the helm. And after some workshopping from New York to start the season, both teams have offenses that flow.

But both teams don’t have a bench, and that’s where the issues are arising for Las Vegas.

There were similar concerns about Las Vegas last season, but they didn’t end up materializing as the Aces went on to win their first WNBA championship. Head coach Becky Hammon knew the bench could be an issue going forward, so she signed veteran forward Alysha Clark to add depth alongside Kiah Stokes and Riquna Williams in a three-person bench unit.

Those numbers quickly dwindled as an injury to free-agent acquisition Candace Parker moved Stokes into the starting lineup. Williams missed the beginning of the season with a back injury and will likely not return to the Aces after being arrested for domestic violence last month. That leaves Clark as the sole rotation player coming off the bench.

While she has been consistent as a sixth player for Las Vegas, averaging 6.8 points per game and shooting 43% from beyond the arc, having just one player established on the bench is a concern going forward. Clark also missed a game with a sore back last week, which brings up a worrisome question for the Aces: What happens if someone else gets hurt?

Las Vegas would have to turn to Cayla George or Kierstan Bell, who have played limited minutes and mostly in garbage time. Against New York on Tuesday, Hammon chose not to play George until the final two minutes, and Bell struggled in her 11 minutes of action.

Nearly every issue the Aces had in that game stemmed from the short bench, while New York’s non-starters provided a major lift.

Las Vegas was clearly tired during the game, as evidenced by a 33% shooting performance that included just 19% shooting from beyond the arc. The Aces also grabbed just four rebounds in the second half and were outperformed 49-28 on the glass.

With Parker in the starting lineup, Stokes is able to provide a rebounding lift off the bench, but without Parker, she’s tasked with a much bigger load. Stokes grabbed 10 boards on Tuesday for more than a third of the Aces’ total production.

Parker’s absence also affects A’ja Wilson. Last season’s MVP is averaging 21.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest, but in her last two games against New York, those numbers decreased to 9.0 and 6.0. Stokes is not a scoring threat, averaging 2.5 points per game this season. That means New York — or other teams for that matter — can send multiple defenders at Wilson without worrying about leaving Stokes.

The guards are suffering from the short bench, too. Gray played 37 minutes against New York, Jackie Young played 35, and Kelsey Plum was in for 33 minutes. Not only does the small rotation make for tired legs, it also limits options. When New York found mismatches, like Betnijah Laney in the post, Las Vegas had to weather the storm with their smaller guards since there were no options for help off the bench.

Meanwhile, New York has perhaps the strongest bench in the WNBA, and it showed on Tuesday. In just 14 minutes of action, Marine Johannès erupted for 17 points, a game-high for both teams, and helped stretch the floor by knocking down five 3-pointers.

Kayla Thornton was also key in the win. The forward played 16 minutes, finishing with eight points, four rebounds and two assists.

The Liberty didn’t need anyone else to secure the win, but coach Sandy Brondello has even more options. Center Stefanie Dolson is still getting acclimated after an injury, but the nine-year WNBA player brings veteran experience to the Liberty bench after having a starting role in her previous nine seasons with the Mystics, Sky and Liberty. They also have Nyara Sabally, an athletic forward in her first season out of Oregon, guard Jocelyn Willoughby, and 6-foot-10 Han Xu back in the fold after playing in China.

In the battle of the superteams, only one has a super bench. That puts New York ahead as the season winds down and head toward the playoffs.

Eden Laase is a Staff Writer at Just Women’s Sports. Follow her on Twitter @eden_laase.

WNBA Playoffs Pit New York Liberty Against Phoenix Mercury in Game 3

New York Liberty center Jonquel Jones reaches for the opening tip-off during Game 2 of the first round of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs.
The New York Liberty's WNBA title defense hopes rest on a win over Phoenix in Friday's Game 3. (David L. Nemec/NBAE via Getty Images)

The first round of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs ends on Friday night, when the No. 4 Phoenix Mercury and No. 5 New York Liberty return to Arizona for a winner-take-all Game 3 — with a trip to the semifinals on the line.

"The message is, 'Everybody keep our heads up. This is a series, and Phoenix is a tough team,'" Liberty star Breanna Stewart said ahead of Friday's matchup.

Still battling an MCL sprain in her left knee, Stewart hopes for more quality time on the court to help New York bounce back from the Mercury's Game 2 blowout win.

While neither team has successfully defended at home so far, Phoenix will look for a boost from the Mercury fans as they try to oust the defending WNBA champs.

"It's just nice for everyone to get a home game," said Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas. "[But] in order to win a series, you got to win on the road."

"You see how competitive, how balanced this is," said Stewart, commenting on the league's new home-away-home first-round format. "How important it is for these kind of series to be going back and forth."

How to watch the New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury in Game 3

It's win-or-go-home for both the No. 5 New York Liberty and No. 4 Phoenix Mercury in Game 3 of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs on Friday.

The high-stakes matchup will tip off at 9 PM ET, with live coverage on ESPN2.

A’ja Wilson and Alanna Smith Share 2025 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year Award

Minnesota Lynx forward Alanna Smith defends a shot from Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson during a 2025 WNBA game.
Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson and Minnesota Lynx forward Alanna Smith are the first athletes to share WNBA Defensive Player of the Year honors. (Candice Ward/Imagn Images)

The 2025 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year race ended in a tie on Thursday, as dominant seasons at both ends of the court saw Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson and Minnesota Lynx forward Alanna Smith each receive 29 of the media panel's 72 total votes.

After finishing first this season in blocks per game (2.3), total rebounds (407), defensive rebounds (316), and combined steals and blocks (156), Wilson became just the fourth player in WNBA history named Defensive Player of the Year at least three times — adding this year's title to her previous 2022 and 2023 honors.

As for Smith, who picked up the award for the first time this year, the Lynx star ranked second overall in combined steals and blocks (135), third in both blocks per game (1.9) and total blocks (80), and tied for 10th in total steals (55) on the season.

Also snagging votes were Seattle Storm forward Gabby Williams, who came in second with nine votes, as well as Phoenix Mercury triple-double phenom Alyssa Thomas and fellow Minnesota Lynx star Napheesa Collier, who received three and two votes, respectively.

The win by both Wilson and Smith marks the first time in history that the WNBA Defensive Player of the Year honor has ended in a tie, reflecting both the top-notch level of talent on display across the league as well as the hyper-competitive nature of the 2025 end-of-year awards race on display across multiple categories.

Next up on the league's awards docket is Saturday's Sixth Player of the Year announcement, followed by the highly anticipated reveal of the 2025 WNBA MVP on Sunday.

San Diego Wave vs. Portland Thorns Mid-Table Clash Headlines NWSL Weekend

The San Diego Wave walk across the pitch during a 2025 NWSL match.
The San Diego Wave have just one win in their last five NWSL matches. (Stan Szeto/Imagn Images)

The NWSL promises a tense mid-table battle this weekend, as the No. 4 Portland Thorns take on the No. 5 San Diego Wave with both teams looking to keep late-season lags at bay.

After strong starts, the Thorns and Wave each have just one win in their last five games, with San Diego aiming to snap a two-game losing streak after falling to Gotham last weekend.

Even more, both clubs currently sit in a four-way tie for points on the NWSL table, giving Saturday's match extra weight in potentially shifting the standings this weekend.

"It's a really important moment for us as a team," said San Diego head coach Jonas Eidevall. "Because adversity will happen to people or teams at various points, and everything about now is how we respond."

Portland will also look to regain ground, perhaps drawing inspiration from the past after announcing Wednesday that the club plans to retire legendary forward Christine Sinclair's jersey in an October 4th ceremony.

Sinclair established herself as the Portland Thorns' all-time leading scorer, retiring last year with 79 goals across all NWSL competitions — the second-most ever scored by an NWSL player.

How to watch the Portland Thorns vs. San Diego Wave

The No. 4 Portland Thorns will host the No. 5 San Diego Wave at 10 PM ET on Saturday, with live coverage of the NWSL match airing on ION.

Las Vegas Aces Oust Seattle Storm to Book 7th Straight WNBA Semifinals Ticket

Las Vegas center A'ja Wilson celebrates the Aces' first-round series win in the 2025 WNBA Playoffs with her teammates.
A'ja Wilson led the Las Vegas Aces to their seventh straight WNBA semifinals on Thursday. (David Becker/NBAE via Getty Images)

No. 2 Las Vegas narrowly avoided a 2025 first-round postseason series upset on Thursday night, defeating the No. 7 Seattle Storm 74-73 in a deciding Game 3 to advance to the Aces' seventh-straight WNBA semifinals.

Aces star A'ja Wilson put her team on her back with another dominant performance, posting 38 points — including 25 in the second half — to outscore the rest of the Las Vegas lineup entirely.

"I am so proud of my team, we were resilient, that's what we need to be in these playoffs and I love each and every last one of them," Wilson said postgame.

Las Vegas got off to a slow start this year, but a late-season surge fueled by a renewed focus on depth saw the 2023 WNBA champs take the No. 2 playoff seed — and book yet another trip to the WNBA semifinals.

"I remember Chelsea [Gray] saying in a timeout, 'There's no time for my-bads anymore,'" said Wilson. "We have to play perfect basketball."

How to watch the Las Vegas Aces in the 2025 WNBA semifinals

Up next for No. 2 Las Vegas is a No. 6 Indiana side punching above their weight.

That said, the Fever did score a 2-1 record against the Aces in the 2025 regular season — and Las Vegas's lone win over Indiana came back in June.

"They haven't seen the real Aces yet," Las Vegas head coach Becky Hammon said of the Fever. "They caught us when we were a bit in turmoil."

The Aces will take aim at Indiana in Sunday's 3 PM ET semifinals opener, airing live on ABC.

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