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US Open final: Why Coco Gauff will win (and why Aryna Sabalenka could too)

Coco Gauff celebrates her US Open semifinal victory against Karolina Muchova. (Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images)

The US Open final is set, with Coco Gauff set to face off against Aryna Sabalenka for the final major title of the year.

It’s the teenage sensation against the impending world No. 1, as Sabalenka will take the top spot when the new rankings come out next week. Gauff, for her part, will move up in the rankings as well — and the 19-year-old American could even attain a career-high ranking of No. 3 with her first Grand Slam win.

Based on their head-to-head history, Gauff comes out on top, having won three matches over Sabalenka and losing just two. But their only matchup this year – at Indian Wells in March – went Sabalenka’s way, with the 25-year-old Belarusian claiming a straight-sets win.

Sabalenka and Gauff will face off for the title at 4 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN.

Why Coco Gauff will win

When Gauff was just 15 years old and breaking onto the scene at Wimbledon, Venus Williams looked at her and declared: “The sky’s the limit.” Now, Gauff has finally, seemingly, put it all together.

Watching the 19-year-old at this year’s US Open has been like watching someone come into their own right before your eyes. You’ve seen it with Carlos Alcaraz. With Gauff, it felt inevitable. And while a coaching change has aided in Gauff’s journey, she’s been knocking on this door for a while. Last summer, she made her first Grand Slam final at the French Open but admittedly felt overwhelmed by the moment. She just hasn’t had all of the pieces snap into place – until now.

We have been spoiled by the dominance of players like Serena and Venus, Roger and Rafa. So with Gauff, there has been a sense of impatience, of wanting to see what we know Gauff is capable of – what Gauff knows what she is capable of. So: Has she finally done it? Has she finally broken through?

That’s a lot of pressure for a teenager. Many 19-year-olds are spending their Saturdays in fraternity basements or studying for midterms. Gauff will spend hers on one of tennis’ biggest stages.

This US Open final will not make or break Gauff’s career. The reality is, she has a long one ahead of her, one which likely will include a stint at the top of the world rankings. This run is only the beginning. We can’t expect her to attain the greatness of Serena Williams — but that’s because she’s Coco Gauff. She’s writing her own story, her own journey, and this, right here, is one of the chapters.

Gauff will win Saturday because she’s finally unlocked her potential. She’s been playing her opponents in a way that she hasn’t before – at times allowing them to beat themselves and knowing exactly when to apply the pressure needed. (Even if Jelena Ostapenko somehow expected more out of Gauff after a 6-0, 6-2 beatdown). She’s shown impeccable poise and wisdom throughout the tournament, a level of maturity that some 19-year-olds can only dream of. There’s never been a moment where she’s gotten too far ahead of herself.

A first round exit at Wimbledon may have been a stumbling block for others, but it pushed Gauff to be better. Since then, she’s won 17 of her last 18 matches and has taken home two WTA titles. Everything, it seems, has fallen into place, and the game is clicking. It’s one of those things that you can just see when watching her play: The way that she seems to have total control of the game, no matter what the score is. She’s everywhere on the court, all at once.

Why Aryna Sabalenka will win

Sabalenka knows she faces a tough test in the US Open final. But she’s ready for the fight.

“Going into this final, I think I just have to focus on myself and prepare myself for another fight,” she said Thursday. “You just have to be there and you have to fight for it.”

She knows the crowd will be behind Coco Gauff. But she’s not about to be the world No. 1 for no reason. On Thursday, she was blanked in the first set – the first 6-0 win in a US Open semifinal since 2013 – and down 5-3 in the second set to Madison Keys. But she never gave up the fight. She’s just the third woman in the Open Era to win a Grand Slam semifinal after losing the first set 6-0, joining Steffi Graf (1992 Roland Garros) and Ana Ivanovic (2008 Australian Open).

“I was all over the place,” Sabalenka said after the match. “I was just, like, ‘What can I do?’ Like, she’s playing unbelievable, just, like, crushing everything. I’m not able to do anything; I had zero control in the match.

“I just [kept] telling myself, I mean, ‘OK, there is going to be days like this [where] somebody’s going to just play their best tennis. You just have to keep trying, keep staying there and keep pushing it. Maybe you’ll be able to turn around this game.'”

Sabalenka’s biggest opponent has always been herself. And on Thursday, she won that battle, winning a tiebreak in the second set and again in the third to reach her first US Open final. Already a Grand Slam champion after winning the Australian Open title earlier this year, Sabalenka has been on a roll. Semifinal appearances at the French Open and Wimbledon were both career bests. She’s the first player since Serena Williams in 2016 to reach the semifinals in all four majors in the same season.

There’s not been anyone better on the tour this year than Sabalenka, not even current No. 1 Iga Swiatek.

On paper, Sabalenka is the better player. She’s weathered the biggest tests of her career and come out ahead. By no means will Saturday’s final be easy, and in fact it might prove to be one of the best major finals of the year, but Sabalenka has what it takes to weather whatever Gauff may throw at her and take home her second title of the year.

The 91st: Gut Reactions — Excitement and Disappointment for the USWNT!?

The latest episode of 'The 91st' tackles USWNT's opening group stage match against Zambia. (Just Women's Sports)

Welcome back to The 91st, your one-stop-shop for all things USWNT at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times for the USWNT against Zambia to open up Olympic play in Nice, France. The US dominated the first half — getting the vibes back — but left a lot to be desired with a lackluster second-half performance. Which version will we see on Sunday when the USWNT goes up against Germany in their second match of group stage play?

Hosts Jordan Angeli, Duda Pavao and retired USWNT forward Jess McDonald break the Zambia match down and preview the heavyweight clash against Germany. Plus, we debate crepes vs. french toast and prove a full update on all the action from the rest of the Paris Olympics soccer tournament.

Subscribe to Just Women's Sports on YouTube to never miss an episode.

USWNT to Play Germany in 2nd Olympic Group Stage Battle

Team Germany poses before their Olympic opener against Australia
Germany is tied at the top of Group B with the USWNT, who they'll face on Sunday. (CHRISTOPHE SIMON/AFP via Getty Images)

Like the US, Germany — the USWNT's next opponent — also emerged from Thursday's group stage play on top, becoming the only other women's soccer team at the 2024 Paris Olympics to win their first game by three or more goals.

Germany took down Australia 3-0 in their opening match, setting the stage for a blockbuster weekend showdown with the US as both teams vie for group stage dominance. With both earning three points and a +3 goal differential on Thursday, the US and Germany will strive to render their respective third games as meaningless as possible.

A win on Sunday by either Germany or the US — combined with a draw between Australia and Zambia — would guarantee a quarterfinal berth for whichever team finishes the weekend with six points in Group B.

Injuries could affect USWNT vs. Germany outcome

Availability will be a key factor in the USWNT's success, with the status of strikers Sophia Smith and Jaedyn Shaw still unclear after Thursday's substitutions.

Germany is still adjusting to the loss of star midfielder Lena Oberdorf to a pre-Olympics ACL injury, but they looked in fine form against Australia with goals from Marina Hegering, Lea Schuller, and Jule Brand sealing the shutout win.

Sunday's match will be the first between the pair since splitting two friendly results in November 2022. Notably, in the second half of their last head-to-head, forwards Sophia Smith and Mallory Swanson fueled a comeback win after an early goal from Brand.

Spain's Aitana Bonmatí celebrates after scoring the opening goal against japan at the 2024 olympics
Spain's Aitana Bonmatí scored the opening goal against Japan on Thursday. (ALAIN JOCARD/AFP via Getty Images)

Elsewhere at the Paris Olympics soccer tournament

On a mission to avenge their 2023 World Cup group stage loss, Spain looked as sharp as ever in their 2-1 victory over Japan. In the other Group C match, Brazil held on to defeat Nigeria 1-0 in an end-to-end battle featuring a goal from Gabi Nunes and an assist by soon-to-retire legend Marta.

Meanwhile in Group A, a troubled Team Canada bounced back from 1-0 down against New Zealand to win it 2-1, but their off-the-field scandal continues to brew as head coach Bev Priestman was sent home on suspension for the remainder of the Summer Games.

Current Group A leaders France eked out a 3-2 victory over Colombia, nearly giving up their 3-0 lead behind a brace from star Marie-Antoinette Katoto.

How to watch the USWNT vs. Germany

The USWNT will take the Olympic pitch against Germany at 3 PM ET on Sunday, with live coverage on NBC networks.

USWNT Kicks Off 2024 Olympics With a Bang

Mallory Swanson celebrates with Trinity Rodman after Rodman's opening goal in the USWNT's 3-0 win over Zambia
Mal Swanson's 66-second brace in Thursday's win over Zambia was the fastest in USWNT major tournament history. (Brad Smith/ISI/Getty Images)

The USWNT earned a comfortable win in their opening match of the 2024 Paris Olympics on Thursday, defeating Zambia 3-0 behind a trio of first-half goals.

Opting to keep her starting XI fairly the same as the team's send-off matches, head coach Emma Hayes's USWNT got their attack flowing early, scoring all three goals before the 26-minute mark.

Trinity Rodman opened the scoring off an assist from Lindsey Horan, before Mallory Swanson scored a brace in the span of 66 seconds, with assists by Horan and Sophia Smith. Zambia played the majority of the match a player down, as defender Pauline Zulu was shown a red card in the 34th minute for denying a clear and obvious goal-scoring opportunity.

uswnt forward croix bethune playing in the olympics against zambia
After subbing in for Shaw, Bethune is now medal-eligible based on the IOC's new rules. (Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports)

USWNT alternate Croix Bethune now Olympics medal-eligible

The day began with a big switch, as Hayes tapped her newly sanctioned ability to temporarily activate an alternate in place of Jaedyn Shaw, who was deemed out with a lower leg injury. Recent call-up Croix Bethune took Shaw's place on the bench, becoming medal-eligible should the US take home any hardware.

If her fitness allows, Shaw will be allowed to return to the USWNT's official 18-player roster before the team's second group stage match on Sunday.

USWNT center-back Tierna Davidson keeps the ball away from prolific Zambia striker Barbra Banda on Thursday
Defender Tierna Davidson routinely held Zambian striker Barbra Banda from scoring on Thursday. (Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

Second-half subs spotlight USWNT defense

After a knock to the ankle, Smith was subbed out of the match just before the halftime whistle blew. Rose Lavelle was also substituted at halftime, as she continues to return to full fitness following a late scratch in the team's final tune-up match.

With substitution patterns somewhat disrupting the flow of attack, US center-backs Naomi Girma and Tierna Davidson successfully fended off talented forwards Barbra Banda and Rachael Kundananji to secure the clean sheet.

Ultimately, after the USWNT's dominant first half, the front line appeared to stall, allowing the defense to take centerstage as they crossed off that crucial first step toward the knockout stages.

US Olympic Skateboarding Team Hits the Street

Team USA's Mariah Duran competing at the 2024 Olympic street skateboarding qualifiers
19-year-old Mariah Duran is the only returning Olympian on USA Skateboarding's street squad. (David Balogh/Getty Images)

In just its second Olympics as an official sport, skateboarding will touch down in Paris for the single-day street event on Sunday, July 28th.

Twenty-two skaters representing 11 countries are gearing up to show off their best tricks to five judges, who will assess their performances on a scale of 0-100 points.

Brazilian skateboarder Rayssa Leal skates at a Paris Olympics practice session
Brazil's Rayssa Leal looks to level up from her silver medal performance in Tokyo. (ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images)

How the street competition works

Street competitions replicate an urban environment, with obstacles like ledges, handrails, and stairs integrated throughout the course.

Athletes attempt five tricks in each of two 45-second runs. However, only their best run and top two tricks will count toward their overall score. The top eight skaters after the preliminary round will advance to the final, which follows the same format.

US street skateboarder Poe Pinson at 2024 Olympic qualifiers
19-year-old Poe Pinson will rep the US at Sunday's Olympic street skateboarding competition. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

Team USA's medal-hunting skateboarding trio

Countries are held to a maximum of three skaters for each competition (street and park). In the 2024 Olympic street contest, five nations qualified a full trio — including the US.

Under USA Skateboarding coach Alexis Sablone — who placed fourth in the Tokyo Olympics' street competition — the lone competing Olympic veteran is 27-year-old Mariah Duran, who hopes to add an Olympic medal to the six X Games honors already in her trophy case.

Joining Duran — and repping Olympic skateboarding’s sizable youth contingent — are 19-year-old Poe Pinson and 16-year-old Paige Heyn, who snagged bronze at the 2023 Pan Am Games.

Japan's Coco Yoshizawa kick-flips her skateboard at the 2024 Olympic street qualifier
World No. 1 Coco Yoshizawa of Japan is a favorite entering Sunday's competition. (Attila Volgyi/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Top contenders look to improve upon Tokyo Olympics

The US will undoubtedly face steep competition in Paris, led by perennial top contenders Japan.

With six of the world's top 10 street skateboarders hailing from Japan, the three-skater rule forced them to leave behind some big names. That includes Momiji Nishiya, who won the sport’s first-ever Olympic gold medal in Tokyo at 13 years old. With Nishiya failing to qualify, Japan’s 19-year-old reigning bronze medalist Funa Nakayama and 14-year-old world No. 1 Coco Yoshizawa are primed to take her place on the podium.

Another major threat is Brazilian phenom Rayssa Leal. The 16-year-old was impressing Tony Hawk at age eight, and looks poised to one-up her silver medal performance in Tokyo on Sunday.

Where to watch USA Skateboarding's Olympic street team

Both the 6 AM ET prelims and 11 AM ET final will go down on Sunday, July 28th, with live coverage on NBC platforms.

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