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WNBA betting guide: Washington Mystics’ title odds trending up

Alysha Clark made her Mystics debut on Friday after missing last season with an injury. (Scott Taetsch for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Just over a week into the season, unpredictability already abounds in the WNBA. The Lynx are 0-4 and seem to have a revolving door for a bench, the Dream are tied for first in the league at 3-1, and previously under-the-radar rookies — from the undrafted players to the 30-somethings — have come out of nowhere to have an early impact for their teams.

Building off of our guide to the 2022 season, we break down what you need to know in the WNBA this week from a betting perspective.

Team trends

One aspect of the chaos is the fact that somehow every team has already won and lost at least once against the spread (ATS). That also holds true for the over/unders, with the exception of the Sun, who have yet to hit an over in their two games.

With so much parity in terms of the small-sample records, we can dig a bit deeper and look at average points above/below the spread or total to tell the story so far. Here are the best and worst teams by each measure.

Best ATS: Washington (+5.5)

Even after losing to Dallas as 7.5-point favorites in their last game, the Mystics have covered by an average of 5.5 points over their four games. The scariest part? They have yet to play a game with their full complement of players.

Alysha Clark made her Mystics debut last week after missing just over a year due to injury, and Natasha Cloud looks set to return this Friday after clearing protocols. Once Elizabeth Williams is back, which may also be on Friday, this starting lineup will finally be whole — at least in games in which Elena Delle Donne suits up.

Worst ATS: New York (-10.6)

The Liberty looked primed to build off of last year’s momentum after bringing in Sandy Brondello and Stefanie Dolson, and a season-opening victory over Connecticut did nothing to change that.

In the week since, New York has fallen off a cliff. A 33-point beatdown in Chicago followed by home losses to the Fever and Wings have not exactly inspired confidence in this team’s ability to take the next step. It doesn’t get any easier tonight in a rematch against the Sun, who look to have Courtney Williams back for this one.

Best for Overs: Indiana (+3.6)

It’s hard to believe for a franchise that’s been around for over two decades, but Indiana has only finished in the top half of the league in pace one time: 2015. If its first five games of 2022 are any indication, however, that may not be the case by season’s end.

The Fever, with a roster full of players who were taking college classes mere weeks ago, lead the league in pace with a whopping 86.5 possessions per 40 minutes. In fact, if that number held throughout the season, they would set a new mark for the fastest team in WNBA history. When you operate at that speed, the overs will be in play whether the offense shows up or not.

Best for Unders: Connecticut (-11.5)

The Sun have played only two games thus far, but is anyone really shocked to see them once again cashing out those unders?

It was mildly surprising to see Connecticut let an opponent break 80 in its opener after returning nearly every starter from a historically good defensive unit in 2021. It didn’t take long for that unit to get back on track though — the Sparks managed a meager 60 points against the Sun in the next game.

In theory, sportsbooks should know by now how much the Sun like to grind out games, but models often regress to the mean early on in a season. If books have regressed more than the Sun have, then Connecticut may continue to hit those unders.

League trends

Aside from the team extremes, there are also always some trends worth watching across the league, a couple of which we covered in our season primer. Let’s check in on those and take a look at a new trend that may be emerging.

Back-to-back unders

Last season, unders hit over 55 percent of the time in the second leg of back-to-backs. We’ve had only one opportunity for this through 11 days, but so far, so good.

Phoenix poured it on Seattle 97-77 on Wednesday after Breanna Stewart was ruled out due to COVID-19 protocol and cleared the 162.5-point line by double figures. In the nationally-televised rematch on Saturday, the teams combined for just 133 points, a decrease of over 40 points from the first total.

If you’re interested in riding this trend, the next chance comes your way Tuesday night in the Atlanta vs. Indiana game.

Fourth-quarter unders

This trend has not held up in the same way, to say the least. Fourth-quarter unders are 10-12 after hitting over 60 percent of the time last year.

The first instinct may be to assume sportsbooks have just adjusted, but it gets curious when you look at league numbers for all four quarters. Over at least the last four seasons, average scoring has gone down in each quarter throughout a game. This season, that trend is almost completely reversed.

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Historically, this has corresponded with a decline in pace quarter by quarter, and that decline is mostly still there (third quarters have been slightly faster than second quarters, but the overall downward trend still applies).

Instead, it appears that much of this is being driven by hot second-half shooting. Teams have shot a combined 32.7 percent from 3 in the first half and 38.8 percent in the second. This feels unsustainable, but it’s good to be aware of the trend if you’re planning on betting halves or quarters.

Live second-quarter unders

Fourth quarters may have let us down so far, but another quarter has been coming through for us. Second-quarter unders overall are 14-8 (63.6 percent), but when the first quarter has gone over, the proceeding second quarter has gone under all seven times. In other words, teams that light up the scoreboard in the first quarter have consistently come back down to earth in the next frame.

Obviously you won’t be able to bet on this trend before knowing how the first quarter shakes out, but if you are watching a game and interested in betting it live, consider taking a swing at the second quarter under after the first quarter surpasses its line.

Futures update

As books continue to pay more attention to women’s basketball, and thus update their odds more often, teams on hot or cold streaks are seeing more and more movement in their championship odds. Here are the biggest movers on FanDuel.

Stock up: Washington (+2000 preseason to +750 current)

The Mystics were already one of the biggest risers of the offseason after opening at +3000. The 1000-point shift in odds has been more than duplicated in the first four games of the regular season for a lot of the reasons mentioned above.

Another thing benefitting Washington this year is the new playoff format. Resting Delle Donne for certain games won’t hurt them as much this season as it would have under the old format, where seeding was so critical and the regular season standings played a huge part in playoff success.

Stock down: Minnesota (+1000 preseason to +3500 current)

Starting 0-4 and cutting players left and right has a way of doing that to a team’s championship odds. It remains to be seen whether the Lynx are headed for the Aliyah Boston sweepstakes or for becoming this year’s version of the 2021 Sky, but they certainly aren’t in a good spot for the time being.

Like the Mystics, Minnesota may be another team aided by the new playoff format. With the May losses piling up, even a great run in July or August probably wouldn’t be enough to land a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, but this year that matters a whole lot less. With no more single-elimination games or byes, as long as teams can sneak into the No. 8 spot, they have a shot.

Best bets tonight

Connecticut/New York under 158.5

We talked about Connecticut’s penchant for playing slow, low-scoring games as well as New York’s struggles over the last week. Bet on both of those to continue Tuesday night.

Atlanta/Indiana under 158.5

We mentioned the success of back-to-back unders as well, and despite the blazing pace at which Indiana has been playing, this line is still high enough to have value on the under.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

USC’s McKenzie Forbes: From Gap Year to the NCAA Tournament

As part of our 1-v-1 video series, USC’s India Otto sat down to interview her teammate McKenzie Forbes. 

Here are five things to know from our conversation with the graduate transfer from Folsom, California.

#1 Inspired by USC’s Head Coach, Lindsay Gottlieb, McKenzie wants to be a basketball coach or work in the front office in the future.

When weighing in on what makes a good coach, McKenzie said x’s and o’s are important but “Coaching is a lot of relationship managing and people managing. I think you have to be a good people person and be able to build those relationships, but also in that same breath, you can’t be afraid to have people dislike you in moments. I think that’s a big part of leadership.”

#2 McKenzie says the trajectory of her career changed when she made the decision to transfer from Cal to Harvard.

 In order to transfer, she was forced to take a gap year and spend a lot of time in the gym. “I completely transformed my body and, going into the Harvard season, felt like I was a completely different player. Going to Harvard and playing in a more mid-major conference, I had the ball in my hands a lot more than I might have if I transferred to another Power 5. It really developed other parts of my game.”

#3 How does McKenzie think USC will do in the Women’s College Basketball Tournament?

“I’m not going to give a typical interview answer. I want a Final Four. We have that potential and capability. Like why not? Why not us? I think we have all the pieces.”

#4 Her older brother, Marcus, was her biggest mentor growing up.

“He was basically my trainer from Elementary school on until he went to college.”

#5 Fun facts about Forbes:

She can juggle and she was the quarterback of her Pop Warner football team. “I was slow but I could throw it!”

Watch the full conversation on the Just Women’s Sports YouTube channel.

Christen Press back training with Angel City FC

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 15: Christen Press #23 of Angel City FC waves to fans following a game between the Portland Thorns and Angel City FC at BMO Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katharine Lotze/Getty Images)

Christen Press continues to inch her way back to a return, having returned to training with her club team Angel City. 

Angel City FC coach Becki Tweed said on Wednesday that Press is back with the team full-time as she continues to make her way back from an ACL injury. While she’s still working on rehab, her being back with the team gives staff a better picture of her progress. 

"Christen [Press] is back with us full time which is amazing,” she said. “Having her in and around the team every day, continuing to work hard on rehab ... she's in a space where being in with the team is really important to her and her progression as well.”

The status update comes days after Press posted videos to social media that featured her doing lateral movement in cleats on grass. 

“Look out world she’s on the move !” Press captioned it. 

Press has been sidelined with an ACL injury since 2022, which caused her to miss the 2023 World Cup. She’s since had four separate surgeries to help repair her ACL.

Press told The Athletic a month ago that she’s been “relentless” in her optimism with her recovery despite it being a “slow process.”

“I have a bit of relentless optimism,” she told The Athletic. “I never, ever doubted that I would make it back on any of the timelines I’ve been on."

"Every single time I’ve heard, ‘You have to have surgery,’ I’m completely shocked,” she said. “When somebody asks me how it’s going, I’m like, ‘It’s going great. And it was going great every time. So I don’t know what to tell you anymore!’”

Sophia Smith re-signs with Portland on record deal

(Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports)

Sophia Smith is now the NWSL’s highest-paid player. 

The Portland Thorns announced on Wednesday that they have signed Smith to a new contract through the 2025 season, with an option for 2026. While the terms of the deal were not disclosed, the team did reveal that Smith is now the highest-paid player in the league on an annual basis.

It’s the latest in what has been a series of record-breaking contracts in the NWSL offseason. 

Chicago Red Stars forward Mallory Swanson, Bay FC forward Racheal Kundananji, and Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda all signed multi-year deals worth between $2 million and $2.5 million in total. While Smith’s contract is shorter and not worth as much over the long-term, the annual worth is higher. 

“We are over the moon to have Soph commit again to the Thorns. She is a proven, world-class talent and one that we are excited to have contribute to the team’s continued success,” said head coach Mike Norris in a statement. “We look forward to working with her in a Thorns jersey as she continues to shine as one of the top strikers in the world.”

In just four seasons in the NWSL, Smith has led the Thorns to five trophies – including the 2022 NWSL championship – while winning league and championship MVP in 2022. In 61 appearances with Portland, she has 34 goals – including a brace to start this season against Kansas City. 

She’s also a member of the USWNT, having scored 16 goals in 44 international appearances.  Set to become a free agent at the end of this season, she told ESPN she “thought of all the options” but ultimately Portland felt like the right decision.

"There is no place like Portland," Smith said in a small roundtable interview that included ESPN. "I don't believe there's an environment like Portland to play in and it's a city that's so special to me and a city that I feel like I've grown up in almost and become who I am."

She also told ESPN that the team’s new ownership “changes everything.” The club is now led by the Bhathal family, who bought the club after Merritt Paulson was forced to sell it following his part in the NWSL’s abuse scandal. 

"Since I've been here there has been a lot of things going on with this club -- a lot of not-great things going on with this club -- and I have just been waiting for some stability and some reassurance that this club is headed in the right direction, and the Bhathal family coming in is doing exactly that, if not more,” Smith said. 

"Their vision for this club is so exciting, and you can just tell how passionate they are about making this what it should be and continuing to push the standard in women's soccer globally.”

Caitlin Clark offered $5 million to compete in Ice Cube’s league

IOWA CITY, IOWA- MARCH 25: Guard Caitlin Clark #22 of the Iowa Hawkeyes celebrates as time runs out in the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers during their second round match-up in the 2024 NCAA Division 1 Women's Basketball Championship at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on March 25, 2024 in Iowa City, Iowa. (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)

Caitlin Clark has been offered $5 million to play in Ice Cube's Big3 league, he confirmed on social media Wednesday after the offer leaked.

"We intended the offer to remain private while Caitlin Clark plays for the championship," Ice Cube wrote on social media. "But I won't deny what's now already out there: BIG3 made a historic offer to Caitlin Clark. Why wouldn't we? Caitlin is a generational athlete who can achieve tremendous success in the BIG3."

While there has yet to be a women's player in the league, both Nancy Lieberman and Lisa Leslie have been part of the league as coaches and won championships.

"The skeptics laughed when we made Nancy Lieberman the first female coach of a men's pro team, and she won the championship in her first year," Ice Cube continued. "Then Lisa Leslie won it all in year two. With our offer, Caitlin Clark can make history and break down even more barriers for women athletes."

Ice Cube, whose name is O’Shea Jackson, says that the offer was made with the intention that Clark be able to compete in the WNBA “offseason.” Clark is largely expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA draft in April. But it’s unclear how the scheduling of the two leagues would work. 

The 2024 Big3 season is set to tip off on June 15, with 10 games spanning through mid-August. The WNBA regular season, meanwhile, begins on May 14 and ends on Sept. 19.

On “The Pat McAfee Show” on Wednesday, Jackson said that the league has yet to hear back from Clark. 

“We just need an answer, as soon as they are ready to give it to us,” he said. “It’s always 50-50 till we get a no. At the end of the day, it’s a generous offer.”

The offer – as well as the confusion on Jackson’s part about the timing of the WNBA season – caused some current WNBA players to react. 

"It's funny cause I be seeing his son at W games.. they don't talk?" wrote former No. 1 pick Rhyne Howard

"So no other women's basketball player has came to mind in the last 7 years?" wrote Lexie Brown, adding that she'd support if Ice Cube wanted to build a women's iteration of the league. She later discussed it on the Gils Arena Show, noting that his reasoning of wanting to “uplift and support WNBA players and women athletes” is a “cop out.”

Kalani Brown, meanwhile, told Clark to "take that money" and start a women's Big3.

WNBA salaries has been a talking point in recent months as more collegiate stars declare for the league. WNBA stars have often made more money playing abroad than they have in the WNBA. Clark is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the WNBA draft on April 15, with a rookie salary of $76,535 for lottery draft picks (Nos. 1-4) that rises to $97,582 by her fourth season. But she also has an NIL valuation of almost $3.5 million.

Diana Taurasi famously skipped the 2015 WNBA season at the request of her Russian club, who paid her more to sit out than she would have made in the W. Her contract with the club was reportedly near $1.5 million per year.

Jackson also seemed to suggest that his league could be an alternative to going abroad

“America’s women athletes should not be forced to spend their off seasons playing in often dismal and dubious foreign countries just to make ends meet,” he wrote. Although it’s unclear whether or not the rapper intends to make offers to additional WNBA players. 

While the league does hold prioritization rules in its CBA, those typically apply only to players playing in overseas leagues. It’s unclear whether or not that would prevent Clark’s participation in the Big3 league.

WNBA players that don’t want to go overseas currently have the option of playing in Athletes Unlimited, which competes in the WNBA offseason.

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