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WNBA betting guide: Stock rising for Indiana Fever, Atlanta Dream

NaLyssa Smith and the Indiana Fever celebrate Carlos Knox’s first win as head coach. (Pepper Robinson/NBAE via Getty Images)

As we close the door on May, the WNBA picture is beginning to come into focus. Almost every player is back from their overseas seasons, and the standings are looking a little bit more like what we expected before the games began.

This means we have more data to work with when placing our WNBA bets, so let’s get into what the numbers have been telling us and what it all might mean going forward.

Team trends

Last time we checked in, every team had already both won and lost against the spread. Now, every team’s already done both at least twice. Despite the parity, some clear tendencies have emerged for certain teams.

Aces covering

Becky Hammon’s masterful coaching job has been well documented, and it’s clearly leading to success on the court. It’s also leading to success for Aces bettors, as Las Vegas is currently 7-2 against the spread.

The Aces will face their toughest test yet against Connecticut on Tuesday night, but considering A’ja Wilson and company have covered the spreads by more than five points per game on average, it’s worth riding them as long as they keep cashing in.

Fever flying

Last time around in this space, we told you how Indiana was playing at a historic tempo. In theory, any time someone is on a historic pace for a certain stat a week into the season, regression is probably coming. It still might be, but it hasn’t hit yet — not even with a midseason coaching change.

In fact, Indiana has been even friendlier to over bettors since our last piece. While essentially maintaining that blazing speed over the last two weeks, the Fever have also played better offense (increasing their points per possession from 93.7 before May 17 to 103.7 since) and worse defense (from 97.4 to 115.5).

The coaching change didn’t seem to change that, as the Sparks and Fever flirted with 200 overall points in Carlos Knox’s first game at the helm last week. Don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on Indiana overs as long as this trend keeps up.

Mystics grinding

On the opposite end of the spectrum, you have the Mystics — potentially a less extreme betting version of last year’s Sun. Washington is the only team playing at a slower pace than Connecticut thus far, and Mike Thibault’s defense has been clicking despite the constant rotation flux.

The result? The Mystics have hit the under in eight of their nine games, and have come up more than eight points short of the over/under on average.

As fate would have it, the Fever and the Mystics meet Tuesday, so tune in to see who wins between the unstoppable force and the immovable object. (For what it’s worth, these two teams matched up in the season opener, and at 154 combined points remains the lowest-scoring Fever game this year.)

Connecticut jump balls

If you really want to get into some obscure bets, you can place a bet on which team will score first on BetMGM Sportsbook. Obviously team offensive and defensive strength plays a big part in this, but another factor is who wins the jump ball.

If you go that route, take a look at the Sun. Jonquel Jones has won every opening tip this season, and she won her last eight of the 2021 regular season as well, giving her a streak of 16 straight in the regular season (she only won three of four in Connecticut’s semifinal loss to Chicago).

Tuesday’s game is an interesting test as BetMGM favors Las Vegas to score first given the Aces’ edge in the overall game, but A’ja Wilson has won fewer than half of her jump balls this season. Despite Las Vegas’ overall dominance, they’ve scored first in only four games this year. It may be worth taking a chance on the Sun here.

League trends

Checking on trends we’ve been monitoring

So far, we’ve been keeping an eye on back-to-back unders, fourth-quarter unders, and live second-quarter unders.

Back-to-back unders are just 1-4, but that’s a bit misleading. Two games were a back-to-back for one of the teams, but the other team had a game in between. Both of those went way under. And the total of 153 in the New York/Seattle game went under the opening line, but by tip time the line had dropped to 152.5, so it technically went over. It’s still too early to know if this will be a trend in 2022.

We have a much bigger sample on quarter unders, and while fourth-quarter unders have continued to hover around 50/50, second-quarter unders are still sitting at 60 percent through over 50 games.

Scoring on the upswing

Two weeks ago, unders were 12-9, and the average total was not even 160. Since then, overs have gone 18-10, and the average game score has been 164.5.

Maybe we can partially blame the Fever, but it seems as though the league as a whole has picked up the scoring in recent days.

Futures update

As the season settles in, the title odds haven’t shifted quite as much in recent days. Here are FanDuel’s biggest movers of the last two weeks.

Stock up: Dream (+10000 previous to +6000 current)

These odds haven’t even changed since Atlanta’s thrashing of Phoenix on Sunday, so this number could continue to move in the coming days.

After three straight seasons of porous defense, this year’s Dream squad has done a full 180 in that department, holding opponents to an effective 42.3 field goal percentage. That mark would be fifth best in league history, and the last team to achieve it over a full season was the 2002 Houston Comets.

Stock down: Liberty (+2100 previous to +8000 current)

It’s hard to sugarcoat this one too much. Ever since opening the season with a win over the Sun, the Liberty have looked nothing like what many predicted entering the season.

A seven-game losing streak that includes three losses by 27 or more points is enough to wonder if this team has any hope of turning it around by season’s end.

Best bets tonight

Las Vegas -3.5 vs. Connecticut

Don’t overthink it. The Sun are as tough of an opponent as Las Vegas will face (it’s Connecticut’s first time being an underdog this season), but until further notice, the Aces are on autobet mode.

Besides, as good as Natisha Hiedeman has looked, Connecticut is 1-2 against the spread since Jasmine Thomas went down.

Dallas +1.5 vs. Los Angeles

This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Wings after a blowout loss to the Sun ended an impressive run of three wins in three cities in six days. The Wings have been the better team this year and should be favored here.

Don’t forget to check the injury reports before placing this bet though: Jordin Canada missed the Sparks’ last game, so if she is back for this one, you may be able to get Dallas at a better line.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

USWNT to face Costa Rica in final Olympic send-off

uswnt sophia smith and tierna davidson celebrate at shebeilves cup 2024
The USWNT will play their final pre-Olympic friendly against Costa Rica on July 16th. (Photo by Greg Bartram/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images for USSF)

U.S. Soccer announced Tuesday that the USWNT will play their last home game on July 16th in the lead-up to the 2024 Summer Olympic Games in Paris.

The 2024 Send-Off Match against Costa Rica will take place at Washington, DC’s Audi Field — home to both the Washington Spirit and DC United — at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 16th. The friendly rounds out a four-game Olympic run-up campaign under incoming head coach Emma Hayes’ side, with the last two set to feature the finalized 2024 U.S. Olympic Women’s Soccer Team roster.

Hayes will appear on the USWNT sideline for the first time this June, helming the team as they embark on a two-game series against Korea Republic hosted by Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado on June 1st followed by Allianz Stadium in St. Paul, Minnesota on June 4th. 

The team is then scheduled to meet a talented Mexico squad on July 13th at Gotham FC’s Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey, where the Olympic-bound lineup will attempt to rewrite February’s shocking 2-0 loss to El Tri Femenil in the group stages of this year’s Concacaf W Gold Cup. And while clear roster favorites have emerged from both of this year’s Gold Cup and SheBelives Cup rosters, a spate of recent and recurring injuries means making it to the Olympics is still largely anyone’s game.

Broadcast and streaming channels for the USWNT's final July 16th friendly at Audi Field include TNT, truTV, Universo, Max, and Peacock.

Caitlin Clark’s WNBA start to serve as 2024 Olympic tryout

Clark of the Indiana Fever poses for a photo with Lin Dunn and Christie Sides during her introductory press conference on April 17, 2024
The talented Fever rookie is still in the running for a ticket to this summer's Paris Olympics. (Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)

The USA Basketball Women's National Team is still considering Caitlin Clark for a spot on the Paris Olympics squad, says selection committee chair Jennifer Rizzotti. 

On Monday, Rizzotti told the AP that the committee will be evaluating the college phenom’s Olympic prospects by keeping a close eye on her first few weeks of WNBA play with Indiana.

The move is somewhat unconventional. While Clark was invited to participate in the 14-player national team training camp held earlier this month — the last camp before Team USA’s roster drops — she was unable to attend due to it coinciding with Iowa’s trip to the NCAA Women’s Final Four.

Judging by the immense talent spread throughout the league in what might be their most hyped season to date, competition for a piece of the Olympic pie could be fiercer than ever before.

"You always want to introduce new players into the pool whether it's for now or the future," said Rizzotti. "We stick to our principles of talent, obviously, positional fit, loyalty and experience. It's got to be a combination of an entire body of work. It's still not going to be fair to some people."

Of course, Clark isn’t the first rookie the committee has made exceptions for. Coming off an exceptional college season that saw her averaging 19.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 4 assists per game for UConn, Breanna Stewart was tapped to represent the U.S. at the 2016 Olympics in Brazil less than two weeks after being drafted No. 1 overall by the Seattle Storm. Eight years prior, fellow No. 1 pick Candace Parker punched her ticket to the 2008 Games in Beijing just two weeks after making her first appearance for the L.A. Sparks.

In the lead-up to Paris’ Opening Ceremony on July 26th, USA Basketball Women’s National Team is scheduled to play a pair of exhibition games. They'll first go up against the WNBA's finest at the July 20th WNBA All-Star Game in Phoenix before facing Germany in London on July 23rd.

While an official roster announcement date hasn’t yet been issued, players won’t find out if they’ve made this year’s Olympic cut until at least June 1st.

WNBA teams make history with 2024 season ticket sell-outs

Arike Ogunbowale on the wnba court for the dallas wings
The Dallas Wings are now the third team to sell out their entire season ticket allotment in WNBA history. (Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images)

For the first time in history, three different WNBA teams have completely sold out of season ticket plans well before the league's May 14th kick-off.

Call it the Caitlin Clark effect, attribute it to this year’s tenacious rookie class, or look to the skyrocketing visibility of veteran players across the board. But no matter the cause, facts are facts: Tickets to the 2024 WNBA season are selling like never before. 

On Monday, the Dallas Wings became the third team to sell out of season ticket memberships in the league’s 27-year history. The announcement from Arlington came shortly after the Atlanta Dream issued their own season ticket sell-out statement, also on Monday, and almost seven weeks after the back-to-back WNBA Champion Las Vegas Aces made headlines by becoming the first-ever WNBA team to sell out their season ticket allotment.   

According to the Wings, season ticket memberships will fill nearly 40% of the 6,251 seats inside their home arena, College Park Center. The club also said that their overall ticket revenue has ballooned to the tune of 220% this year, spanning not just season tickets but also a 1,200% increase in single ticket sales. There’s currently a waitlist to become a Dallas season ticket holder, a status that comes with extra incentives like playoff presale access and discounts on additional single-game tickets. 

In Atlanta, season tickets aren't the only thing flying off the shelves. The Dream also announced that they broke their own record for single-game ticket sales during a recent limited presale campaign. Sunday was reportedly their most lucrative day, with five different games totally selling out Gateway Center Arena. Individual tickets for all upcoming matchups will hit the market this Thursday at 8 a.m., while a waitlist for season ticket memberships will open up next Tuesday at 10 a.m.

"Excitement around women's sports, particularly basketball, is at an all-time high and nowhere is that felt more than here in Atlanta," Dream president and COO Morgan Shaw Parker said in the team’s statement. "We’ve continued a record-setting growth trajectory over the past three years under new ownership — both on and off the court — and 2024 is shaping up to be our best season yet."

As of Tuesday, season ticket sales revenue for Caitlin Clark’s hotly anticipated Indiana Fever debut haven’t yet been announced by the club. But if these numbers are any indication — not to mention the explosive demand for Fever away games felt by teams around the country — it won’t be long before we see some scale-tipping figures coming out of Indianapolis.

Nelly Korda ties LPGA record with fifth-straight tournament win

Nelly Korda of the United States celebrates with the trophy after winning The Chevron Championship
Nelly Korda poses with her trophy after acing her fifth-straight tour title at The Chevron Championship on Sunday. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

25-year-old American pro golfer Nelly Korda secured her spot in LPGA history on Sunday, notching her fifth-straight title at this weekend's Chevron Championship in The Woodlands, Texas.

Ranked No. 1 in the world by Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings, Korda joins Nancy Lopez (1978) and Annika Sörenstam (2005) as just the third LPGA player to rack up five consecutive tour wins. She is also the third No. 1-ranked player to capture The Chevron Championship victory since the rankings debuted in 2006, accompanied by Lorena Ochoa and Lydia Ko.

The Florida native shot three-under 69 in Sunday's final, besting Sweden's Maja Stark despite Stark's valiant come-from-behind attempt in the 18th. Korda finished with a four-day total of 13-under 275, celebrating her two-stroke win by cannonballing into Poppie's Pond, much to the crowd's delight. She left The Club at Carlton Woods with $1.2 million from an overall purse of $7.9 million.

It wasn't long ago that the two-time major champion's current winning streak seemed unimaginable. After maintaining her No. 1 position for 29 weeks, Korda underwent surgery to remove a blood clot from her left arm in 2022. She returned to the course not long after, but failed to win a single tournament in 2023 before seeing a surge in form during the first four months of 2024. As of today, she hasn't lost a tournament since January.

Korda will attempt a record sixth-straight win at next week's JM Eagle LA Championship at Wilshire Country Club in Los Angeles, where she'll vie for a cut of the $3.75 million purse.

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