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WNBA betting guide: Stock rising for Indiana Fever, Atlanta Dream

NaLyssa Smith and the Indiana Fever celebrate Carlos Knox’s first win as head coach. (Pepper Robinson/NBAE via Getty Images)

As we close the door on May, the WNBA picture is beginning to come into focus. Almost every player is back from their overseas seasons, and the standings are looking a little bit more like what we expected before the games began.

This means we have more data to work with when placing our WNBA bets, so let’s get into what the numbers have been telling us and what it all might mean going forward.

Team trends

Last time we checked in, every team had already both won and lost against the spread. Now, every team’s already done both at least twice. Despite the parity, some clear tendencies have emerged for certain teams.

Aces covering

Becky Hammon’s masterful coaching job has been well documented, and it’s clearly leading to success on the court. It’s also leading to success for Aces bettors, as Las Vegas is currently 7-2 against the spread.

The Aces will face their toughest test yet against Connecticut on Tuesday night, but considering A’ja Wilson and company have covered the spreads by more than five points per game on average, it’s worth riding them as long as they keep cashing in.

Fever flying

Last time around in this space, we told you how Indiana was playing at a historic tempo. In theory, any time someone is on a historic pace for a certain stat a week into the season, regression is probably coming. It still might be, but it hasn’t hit yet — not even with a midseason coaching change.

In fact, Indiana has been even friendlier to over bettors since our last piece. While essentially maintaining that blazing speed over the last two weeks, the Fever have also played better offense (increasing their points per possession from 93.7 before May 17 to 103.7 since) and worse defense (from 97.4 to 115.5).

The coaching change didn’t seem to change that, as the Sparks and Fever flirted with 200 overall points in Carlos Knox’s first game at the helm last week. Don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on Indiana overs as long as this trend keeps up.

Mystics grinding

On the opposite end of the spectrum, you have the Mystics — potentially a less extreme betting version of last year’s Sun. Washington is the only team playing at a slower pace than Connecticut thus far, and Mike Thibault’s defense has been clicking despite the constant rotation flux.

The result? The Mystics have hit the under in eight of their nine games, and have come up more than eight points short of the over/under on average.

As fate would have it, the Fever and the Mystics meet Tuesday, so tune in to see who wins between the unstoppable force and the immovable object. (For what it’s worth, these two teams matched up in the season opener, and at 154 combined points remains the lowest-scoring Fever game this year.)

Connecticut jump balls

If you really want to get into some obscure bets, you can place a bet on which team will score first on BetMGM Sportsbook. Obviously team offensive and defensive strength plays a big part in this, but another factor is who wins the jump ball.

If you go that route, take a look at the Sun. Jonquel Jones has won every opening tip this season, and she won her last eight of the 2021 regular season as well, giving her a streak of 16 straight in the regular season (she only won three of four in Connecticut’s semifinal loss to Chicago).

Tuesday’s game is an interesting test as BetMGM favors Las Vegas to score first given the Aces’ edge in the overall game, but A’ja Wilson has won fewer than half of her jump balls this season. Despite Las Vegas’ overall dominance, they’ve scored first in only four games this year. It may be worth taking a chance on the Sun here.

League trends

Checking on trends we’ve been monitoring

So far, we’ve been keeping an eye on back-to-back unders, fourth-quarter unders, and live second-quarter unders.

Back-to-back unders are just 1-4, but that’s a bit misleading. Two games were a back-to-back for one of the teams, but the other team had a game in between. Both of those went way under. And the total of 153 in the New York/Seattle game went under the opening line, but by tip time the line had dropped to 152.5, so it technically went over. It’s still too early to know if this will be a trend in 2022.

We have a much bigger sample on quarter unders, and while fourth-quarter unders have continued to hover around 50/50, second-quarter unders are still sitting at 60 percent through over 50 games.

Scoring on the upswing

Two weeks ago, unders were 12-9, and the average total was not even 160. Since then, overs have gone 18-10, and the average game score has been 164.5.

Maybe we can partially blame the Fever, but it seems as though the league as a whole has picked up the scoring in recent days.

Futures update

As the season settles in, the title odds haven’t shifted quite as much in recent days. Here are FanDuel’s biggest movers of the last two weeks.

Stock up: Dream (+10000 previous to +6000 current)

These odds haven’t even changed since Atlanta’s thrashing of Phoenix on Sunday, so this number could continue to move in the coming days.

After three straight seasons of porous defense, this year’s Dream squad has done a full 180 in that department, holding opponents to an effective 42.3 field goal percentage. That mark would be fifth best in league history, and the last team to achieve it over a full season was the 2002 Houston Comets.

Stock down: Liberty (+2100 previous to +8000 current)

It’s hard to sugarcoat this one too much. Ever since opening the season with a win over the Sun, the Liberty have looked nothing like what many predicted entering the season.

A seven-game losing streak that includes three losses by 27 or more points is enough to wonder if this team has any hope of turning it around by season’s end.

Best bets tonight

Las Vegas -3.5 vs. Connecticut

Don’t overthink it. The Sun are as tough of an opponent as Las Vegas will face (it’s Connecticut’s first time being an underdog this season), but until further notice, the Aces are on autobet mode.

Besides, as good as Natisha Hiedeman has looked, Connecticut is 1-2 against the spread since Jasmine Thomas went down.

Dallas +1.5 vs. Los Angeles

This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Wings after a blowout loss to the Sun ended an impressive run of three wins in three cities in six days. The Wings have been the better team this year and should be favored here.

Don’t forget to check the injury reports before placing this bet though: Jordin Canada missed the Sparks’ last game, so if she is back for this one, you may be able to get Dallas at a better line.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Kelley O’Hara says to “Get the Popcorn Out” for NWSL Semis on Latest ‘Fast Friends’

Kansas City's Temwa Chawinga and Orlando's Barbra Banda behind the 'Fast Friends' graphic
O'Hara and Leslie chat through the NWSL semifinal matchups on "Fast Friends." (Just Women's Sports)

Welcome back to Fast Friends with Kelley O'Hara and Lisa Leslie!

In today's episode, our hosts kick things off by chatting through last weekend's NWSL quarterfinals, with the top four teams proving their dominance in four heated battles. O'Hara then shouts out the two center backs who notched their first goals of the year this postseason: Washington's Tara McKeown and Gotham's Tierna Davidson.

Later turning to the NWSL semifinals, Leslie zeroes in on this weekend's bout between No. 1 Orlando and No. 4 Kansas City — a game that pits leading goalscorers Temwa Chawinga and Barbra Banda against one another. "Is the matchup that we've been waiting for?" she asks.

O'Hara agrees with her co-host. While she dubs the semifinal between No. 2 Washington and No. 3 Gotham more of a "chess match," O'Hara predicts the Current and Pride's clash to be "end line to end line soccer."

"Orlando was able to stay top of the table [while] Kansas City is fourth, so in reality you would think Orlando should walk into this game feeling very confident and know what you need to do to be successful," says O'Hara. "But it's playoffs, so anything can happen."

"I'm just gonna be sat on the couch, locked in," she adds. "Get the popcorn out, get ready."

Fast Friends discusses NWSL awards

Before moving on from the pitch, Leslie and O'Hara discuss the NWSL's end-of-season awards frontrunners. The hosts gamble that Chawinga will take MVP honors while Spirit midfielder Croix Bethune will walk away as the 2024 Rookie of the Year — despite only playing 17 matches before a post-Olympics knee injury limited her to the sidelines.

Then, the legendary athletes turn to the tennis courts to celebrate Coco Gauff's recent WTA Finals win before chatting through the top teams and players headlining NCAA basketball's early season action.

And last but not least, O'Hara and Leslie reveal a few of the special guests joining them onstage at their upcoming NWSL Championship Weekend Live Show.

About Fast Friends with Kelley O'Hara and Lisa Leslie

Coming off the success of JWS's Olympic commentary show The Gold Standard, Fast Friends features two legendary athletes serving up insider insights and unique takes on the biggest stories in women's sports every week.

Subscribe to Just Women's Sports on YouTube to never miss an episode.

NWSL Reveals 2024 Individual Awards Finalists

Orlando teammates and NWSL MVP award finalists Barbra Banda and Marta pose with the game ball after a win.
Orlando's Barbra Banda and Marta are both 2024 NWSL MVP finalists. (Mike Watters/Imagn Images)

The NWSL announced the finalists for the 2024 end-of-year awards on Tuesday, with lists showcasing heavy-hitters around the league.

The 2024 MVP award is an all-attacker affair, as the league's top scorers all earned nominations. The Orlando Pride's Barbra Banda and Marta both snagged nods, with Kansas City's Golden Boot-winner Temwa Chawinga, Washington's Trinity Rodman, and Portland's Sophia Smith rounding out the shortlist.

The Rookie of the Year category is similarly stacked, as injured Washington rookie Croix Bethune and her record-tying 10 assists goes up against Utah standout Ally Sentnor and KC Current star Claire Hutton for top honors.

NWSL Rookie of the Year award finalist and Washington midfielder Croix Bethune celebrates a goal in an NWSL game.
Washington rookie Croix Bethune's injury-shortened season still earned her two NWSL award nods. (Amber Searls/USA TODAY Sports)

Position players snag share of NWSL awards spotlight

The NWSL's top position players are also vying for solo hardware this season.

In the league's first-ever Midfielder of the Year category, Kansas City's Vanessa DiBernardo and celly queen Lo LaBonta earned nominations, as did Orlando's Marta and North Carolina's Ashley Sanchez. Washington rookie Croix Bethune's short but impressive season also scored her a nod.

Battling in the backline for Defender of the Year are North Carolina's Kaleigh Kurtz and Washington's forward-turned-center back Tara McKeown. Both Iron Women are in the running alongside San Diego’s Naomi Girma and Orlando’s Emily Sams and Kylie Strom.

As the new NWSL single-season shutout leader, Orlando's Anna Moorhouse headlines the Goalkeeper of the Year race, with Gotham's Ann-Katrin Berger and Utah's Mandy Haught in hot pursuit.

NWSL Coach of the Year finalist and Orlando head coach Seb Hines gives a speech in the team huddle after the 2024 NWSL quarterfinal win.
Orlando Pride head coach Seb Hines snagged a 2024 NWSL Coach of the Year nomination. (Russell Lansford/Imagn Images)

Top sideline leaders earn NWSL Coach of the Year nominations

After flipping Orlando from a non-playoff team into 2024’s Shield-winners with a record-setting 23-match undefeated streak, Pride boss Seb Hines is the frontrunner for Coach of the Year (COTY).

However, Hines faces tough competition from Gotham's Juan Carlos Amorós and Kansas City's Vlatko Andonovski.

Andonovski took the Current from a second-to-last 2023 finish to fourth-place on this season's table, while 2023 COTY winner Amorós is one of just two coaches to defeat Orlando this year.

How to vote for the 2024 NWSL individual awards

Fan ballots account for 10% of the final tally, so weigh in by voting online for this season's individual awards, as well as the Best XI First Team and Best XI Second Team. Ballots are due by 3 PM ET on Friday.

Top Teams Prep for 2024 NWSL Semifinals

Gotham's Bruninha and Washington's Trinity Rodman battle for the ball during a match.
Gotham will take on the Spirit in the postseason for the first time in Saturday's NWSL semifinal. (Amber Searls/USA TODAY Sports)

After a quarterfinal round that was all chalk, this weekend's NWSL semifinals have massive nail-biter potential, with the league's top four teams facing off in two highly anticipated pairings.

Gotham's Rose Lavelle dribbles around Washington's Hal Hershfelt in an NWSL game.
Washington is the only NWSL team to defeat Gotham twice this season. (Lucas Boland/Imagn Images)

Will Gotham get rowdy at Audi?

The stakes couldn't be higher as No. 2 Washington kicks off the tightly contended 2024 semis against No. 3 Gotham FC in front of another raucous sellout crowd in DC on Saturday — the East Coast powerhouses' first-ever postseason clash.

Having both having advanced from strikingly similar quarterfinal matchups last weekend, the teams enter the match with a split 5-5-4 record against each other over the last four seasons. Even more, the squads finished the regular season tied at 56 points apiece.

The Spirit remain the only team to defeat Gotham twice this year, though both those meetings occurred early in the season. Since their second loss to Washington in June, the NJ/NY squad has fallen just once in NWSL play — to No. 1 Orlando on September 1st. Along with the Pride, Gotham leads the league as the toughest team on the road, a claim that will be tested by a Spirit side that hasn't lost at home since July.

Saturday's semifinal will be a battle between one of the league’s most prolific offenses against one of the NWSL’s stingiest defenses. With the league's second-highest goal tally under their belt, Washington is arguably the most dangerous NWSL team in transition. But if Gotham's backline can stifle the Spirit's attack, their unmatched depth could keep their back-to-back championship dreams alive. 

Orlando's Haley McClutcheon and Angelina try to chase down Kansas City's Lo LaBonta in an NWSL game.
Orlando is the only NWSL team Kansas City hasn't beaten this season. (Dustin Markland/Getty Images)

Budding rivals set for NWSL semifinal fight night in Florida

Orlando and Kansas City's freshly minted rivalry will come to a head on Sunday, when the NWSL's No. 1 squad hosts this season's top goal-scorers in Sunday's semifinal showdown.

Both teams began the year on impressive unbeaten runs, until the Pride snapped KC's 17-match streak just before the Olympic break in early July.

The Current then became the only team to hold Orlando scoreless at home in the pair's September 13th draw — the only home match the Pride failed to win since opening the year with three draws in March.

The Pride's league-leading defense and the Current's ultra-organized midfield make Sunday's semi a guaranteed thriller, with the winner likely decided by the NWSL's most prolific scorers, KC's Golden Boot winner Temwa Chawinga and star Orlando striker Barbra Banda.

After needing medical attention late in KC’s quarterfinal, there are lingering concerns about Chawinga’s ongoing knee injury affecting her semifinal fitness. Meanwhile, Banda snapped a five-match scoring drought with a decisive brace last weekend, and if she can keep that momentum, Orlando will be tough to beat.

How to watch the 2024 NWSL semifinals this weekend

With the November 23rd NWSL Championship match on the line, Gotham and Washington will kick off the 2024 NWSL semifinals at 12 PM ET on Saturday, airing live on CBS.

The weekend's NWSL semifinal closer between Orlando and Kansas City will take the Pride's pitch at 3 PM ET on Sunday, with live coverage on ABC.

NCAA Soccer Bracket Drop Paves Road to 2024 College Cup

Members of the 2023 Florida State soccer team celebrate winning the national championship.
Florida State won two of the last three NCAA soccer titles. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

The 2024 NCAA DI Soccer Championship field is officially set, with 64 teams gearing up to battle for postseason glory in this weekend's first round.

All teams have their sights set on this year's College Cup — NCAA soccer's Final Four — which will take place in Cary, NC, with semifinals on December 6th before the December 9th championship match.

Along with the 30 conference tournament champions who automatically received postseason invites, the NCAA committee revealed its 34 selectees in Monday's bracket release. The top 32 teams are seeded one through eight in their respective bracket quadrants, and teams are guaranteed to only face non-conference opponents through the tournament's second round.

Duke college soccer players congratulate each other post-game.
Duke earned the NCAA tournament's overall No. 1 seed for the first time in program history. (Duke Athletics)

Tight race for top seeds reflect NCAA talent

In this 43rd edition of the NCAA championship, three of the four No. 1 seeds are already making history.

After finishing the the regular season atop the sport's rankings, Duke is the tournament's overall No. 1 team for the first time ever. The Blue Devils, who boast the nation's second-best scoring offense, are aiming for a program-first national title this year.

Joining Duke in the bracket's elite echelon are USC and Mississippi State, who claimed No. 1 seeds for the first time ever. The Trojans did so in their first season as a Big Ten team, while the SEC veteran Bulldogs put together their best year yet, finishing with a nationally unparalleled 16-1-0 regular-season record.

Rounding out the top quartet is defending champion Florida State, the lone consistent standby in the No. 1-seed club. The Seminoles have earned the honor 12 times, with this year marking their sixth straight NCAA tournament atop a quadrant.

UNC college soccer players celebrate a win.
The Tar Heels have won 21 of the 42 NCAA championships. (Ainsley E. Fauth/UNC Athletics)

Power Four squads lead NCAA Championship charge

Unsurprisingly, the Power Four conferences comprise over half the national bracket. The SEC and Big Ten lead the charge with 10 teams each, while the ACC has nine in the mix, and the Big 12 is sending seven.

Though the ACC didn't win the total team race, the tough conference is still arguably the one to beat in the bracket, as seven of their teams earned Top-4 seedings. Even more, a full half of the eight Nos. 1 and 2 teams hail from the ACC, with second-seeds North Carolina and Wake Forest joining top seeds Duke and Florida State.

UNC and Wake Forest represent two very different paths to the tournament: The Tar Heels — a dynasty who've won 21 of the 42 national trophies — extended their streak of appearing in every single NCAA tournament with Monday's bracket drop. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons have shot to national acclaim after failing to garner an invite to last year's NCAA party.

Joining the ACC pair as No. 2 seeds are SEC standouts Arkansas and 2022 national champions and new Big Ten members UCLA. The Razorbacks claim their third No. 2 seed in four years, while the Bruins' defense is on a hunt to prove that defense wins championships.

Kansas college soccer team lifts the 2024 Big 12 tournament trophy.
The Jayhawks proved anyone can win any game by taking the 2024 Big 12 tournament as an underdog. (Kansas Athletics)

Parity set to increase NCAA tournament chaos

Though the top contenders have certainly earned respect, this season's competition is particularly fierce, as the fallout of conference realignment and unrestricted transfers has meant increased parity on the NCAA pitch.

That parity isn't just reflected by new teams claiming top national seeds. This postseason has already proved that almost any team can emerge victorious from the college soccer pitch at any time.

In last week's Power Four conference tournaments, for example, only the Big 12 saw the top conference seed advance to the final, and none ultimately lifted hardware: UCLA claimed the Big Ten as the No. 2 seed, No. 3 seeds Florida State and Texas won the ACC and SEC tournaments, respectively, and Kansas absolutely stunned the Big 12 as the conference's No. 6 seed champions.

How to watch the NCAA Soccer Championship tournament

Those parity-fueled upsets will be increasingly likely in the tournament's later rounds, but several of the 32 first-round matchups have upset potential.

All will stream on ESPN+, starting with the NCAA's kickoff match between No. 8 Utah State and Washington on Friday at 4 PM ET.

Friday will see 25 matches, with six on Saturday. Wrapping up the tournament's first chapter will be No. 1 USC, who will host Sacramento State at 5 PM ET on Sunday.

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