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Contenders and pretenders in women’s college basketball

Sam Thomas and Bendu Yeaney talk during Arizona’s win over Oregon State on Sunday. (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

With Selection Sunday (yes, Sunday this year) basically a month away, talk is heating up around seeding and who could make a March run. The NCAA Selection Committee recently revealed its top 16 seeds, and ESPN’s Charlie Creme has been updating his bracketology regularly.

But every year, there are at least one or two teams that sneak up to those better seed lines thanks to fortunate resumes that perhaps oversell their true standing in the national landscape. We’ve taken a look at a handful of the teams Creme has had on the No. 2 or No. 3 line to find who those teams might be.

Obviously, everyone in this group is a contender in some way. You don’t get to this point without at least having a shot to make the Final Four. But who are the teams that have a truly realistic chance at knocking off a No. 1 seed and making the Final Four? And who are the teams that could be headed for a first-weekend exit at the hands of a No. 6 or No. 7?

Arizona: Contender

Dawn Staley has to be the frontrunner for Coach of the Year, but it’s hard to ignore the job Adia Barnes has done in keeping this team in the top ten despite losing the face of the rebuild in Aari McDonald. Arizona has ridden the momentum of last year’s enthralling postseason run and is in position to do it again this March.

Under Barnes, the Wildcats have become one of the nation’s premier defensive units by forcing turnovers without getting out of rebounding position. It’s rare for a team to be able to accomplish both. Rare enough, in fact, that Arizona is the only team that has rebounded over 70 percent of opponent misses and turned opponents over on over 22 percent of their possessions in each of the last two seasons.

The scariest part for the rest of the country? The Wildcat defense is doing this despite some bad luck this season. As Ken Pomeroy has pointed out in the past, defenses have minimal control over whether an opponent’s 3-pointers go in. The scouting report on shooters generally isn’t “force them to miss 3s;” it’s “force them to put the ball on the floor instead of taking 3s in the first place.” This is the concept driving Arizona’s defensive misfortune: Their opponent 3-point percentage is in the bottom half of the country even though they have a top-30 2-point defense and rank in the top quarter of teams in opponent 3-point rate.

At some point, Arizona’s opponents are going to start missing 3s. When that happens, watch out.

Michigan: Contender

This answer may have been different a month ago when Michigan was coming off of a 21-point loss to Nebraska. To that point, the Wolverines’ only road tests against tournament-level competition had resulted in blowout defeats, which left them with a lot of questions.

Since then, they’ve rattled off eight straight wins, including drubbings of Maryland and Ohio State on the road. The Wolverines will have to get used to life without Leigha Brown for a while, but that didn’t phase them in their most recent win over Iowa on Sunday. The way freshman Laila Phelia (24 points) and sophomore Cameron Williams (8 points on 4-of-5 shooting) played in that one goes to show that this team may be deeper than they’ve gotten credit for.

A quick look at Michigan’s remaining schedule shows that they’ll be favored in every game until the return trip to Iowa in their regular season finale. Already atop the Big Ten standings, they have to be considered the favorites to win the league, and the No. 3 seed they were given in the first NCAA seeding reveal should turn into a No. 2 the next time around.

If Michigan can finish off the Big Ten regular season championship and win the conference tournament as well, they still may have a path to a No. 1 seed. With all the seniors on this roster starting to play with a sense of urgency, this is a team that could make some serious noise next month.

Tennessee: Pretender

Our first pretender on the board fell to a No. 3 seed in Creme’s most recent bracketology. What Kellie Harper has accomplished in Year 3 in Knoxville has been commendable, especially when you consider that she spent the better part of two months going 11-1 without leading returning scorer Rae Burrell.

But Rocky Top has been living on the edge all season. They are 7-0 in games decided by single digits, and they’ve pulled out both of their overtime games so far. Losses in the last two weeks to Auburn by 10, Florida by 25 and UConn by 19 have given us a pretty good indication that this team has a long way to go if it wants to be worthy of a No. 2 seed.

There are shades of last year’s Texas A&M team all over this profile. You may recall that those Aggies rode their close-game magic into the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, when they narrowly avoided upsets to No. 15 seed Troy and No. 7 seed Iowa State, but they still became the first No. 2 seed to fall after losing to Arizona in the Sweet 16. Don’t be surprised to see a similar fate for the Lady Vols.

Texas: Pretender

Vic Schaefer’s pressure defense has been effective all season: The Longhorns are holding opponents below 60 points per game for the first time in six years. It’s a defense that limited scoring juggernaut Iowa State (albeit without Ashley and Aubrey Joens) and Kansas State to under 50 points, and held Ayoka Lee to a human 45 percent from the field.

So why are they pretenders? Their three-game losing streak and .500 record in conference play raise some small red flags, but ultimately it comes down to how they score the ball. Much of the Longhorns’ offense comes from their ability to generate turnovers and get out and run. In the halfcourt, they rely on getting the ball on the rim and crashing the glass. When Texas goes up against teams who take care of the ball and have enough frontcourt size to keep them off the offensive boards, they run into trouble.

Texas also heavily eschews the 3-point line, ranking 326th in 3-point attempt rate. It’s another reason lengthy teams give them trouble — with so much of their scoring coming in the paint, good rim protectors can have a greater impact. Kansas’ Taiyanna Jackson and Tennessee’s Alexus Dye each had four blocks in wins over Texas, and Dye’s teammate, Tamari Key, racked up an incredible 10 blocks.

To be contenders, you have to be able to compete with South Carolina. With all the length and shot blocking ability the Gamecocks have, it’d be tough to imagine Texas scoring enough to win that matchup. Add in the fact that they rank 299th in free-throw percentage, and the odds of them holding a late-game lead over a pesky lower seed are even lower.

Indiana and UConn: It depends

This may be a bit of a cop-out, but the correct answer for each of these teams hinges on health and player availability.

For Indiana, that comes down to when Mackenzie Holmes can return. The Hoosiers weren’t deep even before she went down with a knee injury, but at full strength their starting five can compete with just about anybody in the country. Sans Holmes, Indiana has looked frighteningly beatable.

They’ve gone 4-1, but that includes three scares against non-tournament teams — an overtime win and a seven-point win over Purdue, and a win over Minnesota in which they trailed at the fourth-quarter media timeout — and a beatdown at the hands of Michigan. The Wolverines exposed the vulnerability of what’s left of Indiana’s frontcourt by out-rebounding the Hoosiers by a whopping 32.

According to CBB Analytics, Indiana has outscored opponents by 27.6 points per 100 possessions with Holmes on the court this year and just 7.9 without her, basically the equivalent of dropping from North Carolina to Fairfield. If Holmes is back, the Hoosiers can build on their Elite Eight run last year and make their first ever Final Four. Without her, don’t count on the Sweet 16.

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Azzi Fudd has provided UConn with a boost since she returned two weeks ago. (M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

From UConn’s perspective, Paige Bueckers is the obvious name that comes to mind, but health has been an issue up and down the roster all season. Azzi Fudd, Christyn Williams, Dorka Juhasz and Nika Mühl have all missed time at various points.

Like Indiana, the Huskies have been able to avoid too much damage in the loss column; Geno Auriemma’s squad has just one loss since Christmas. But like Indiana, UConn has looked human in some of its wins — something we aren’t used to seeing from this team in conference play. The Huskies have already won three Big East games by single digits, including an uninspiring eight-point win over sub-.500 Providence. And in that one loss, they had just six rotation players available and had no answer for Oregon.

The good news for UConn is that the last two wins have been dominant ones against quality competition, and Fudd finally looked like the No. 1 recruit in their 19-point win over Tennessee on Sunday. But even when Bueckers comes back, this team will have a lot of gelling to do before it’s at its peak. This is a program that hasn’t missed the Final Four since Android phones came out, but it’s important to remember that South Carolina ran away from them in their November matchup with Bueckers still on the court. The recent returns are promising, but to get back into that No. 1 conversation, they’ll need Bueckers at full strength.

Oregon: Contender

Oregon has dealt with as many personnel issues as UConn has, but the key for the Ducks is timing. Oregon has its rotation back, and, knock on wood, should have its full complement of stars for the final month of the regular season and into the postseason.

Upon getting healthy, Oregon went on an impressive run that included multiple top-ten victories to vault themselves back into the AP Poll top 20. That stretch says a lot about this team’s ceiling. The Ducks didn’t look the part in their Arizona trip this past weekend, but a combined 7-for-33 mark from 3 isn’t the type of performance that we should expect going forward.

Those two games are a good reminder that Oregon is still going to have ups and downs throughout the next month — it’s a group that had to wait until a few weeks ago to all play together, after all. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Kelly Graves going back to his time with Gonzaga, it’s that he knows how to have his teams playing their best basketball at the right time. When the calendar flips to March, look for the version of Oregon that knocked off two top-ten teams in one week.

Iowa State: Contender

In our championship betting preview last month, we wrote that we’d know a lot more about Iowa State after their games against Texas and Baylor. Turns out, all we really know is that the Joens sisters are critical to their team’s success.

Both Ashley and Aubrey missed their game against Texas due to COVID-19 protocols, and the Cyclones managed just 48 points in an 18-point defeat. The sisters returned against Baylor, but their shooting didn’t — they combined to hit just four of their 16 shots. Again, the Cyclones were on the wrong end of a lopsided score.

Iowa State has gotten back on track since, winning all four of their games by at least 15. It’s fair to wonder how they’d fare against the top of the Big 12 with their starters on the court and hitting shots. We’ll have to wait until the rematches later this month for that. For now, the metrics still love this team, as the Her Hoop Stats ratings and the Massey Ratings each have them in the top ten. Given how dangerous they’ve looked in all but one week this season, it’s hard to view the Cyclones as anything but contenders.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Lottie Woad Turns Pro Following Near-Win at 2025 Evian Championship

English amateur Lottie Woad plays a shot at the 2025 Evian Championship.
Amateur Lottie Woad finished tied for third at the 2025 Evian Championship. (Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)

Amid her historic summer on the links, English amateur and rising Florida State senior Charlotte "Lottie" Woad is officially turning pro, accepting LPGA membership two days after nearly topping the 2025 Evian Championship leaderboard.

One week after becoming the first amateur to win a European Tour tournament since 2022 — with the 21-year-old taking the 2025 Irish Open title by a massive six-stroke margin — Woad came within one stroke of becoming the first amateur to win an LPGA major in 58 years.

Sunday's finale saw world No. 25 Grace Kim emerge as the 2025 Evian Champion, with the Australian taking the title following a playoff with Thailand's No. 2 Jeeno Thitikul.

Both Kim and Thitikul finished the tournament at 14-under-par, while Woad trailed a single stroke behind to tie 2021 Evian winner and Australia's No. 5 Minjee Lee for third-place in the LPGA Grand Slam.

Unlike Lee, who banked $547,200 for her efforts, Woad's amateur status means she had to forgo what would have been her share of the $8 million purse.

"I did have a look after and was like, 'oh no,'" joked Woad about Lee's check.

England's Lottie Woad watches her drive at the 2025 Evian Championship.
Lottie Woad will make her professional debut at the 2025 Scottish Open. (Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)

Woad to make pro debut next week

That all changes now, though, as Woad's finish made her the first player eligible to join the LPGA through the governing body's new lite Amateur Pathway (LEAP) program, in which top young golfers amass points to earn pro membership.

While the world's highest-ranking amateur initially said she would take the week to weigh turning pro with returning to Florida State for her final NCAA year, Woad made her decision to turn pro Tuesday morning.

In addition to accepting the LPGA membership, she will also join the European Tour in 2026 — an invite Woad earned with her Irish Open win.

"I have only reached this point in my career through the help and support that I've received from so many people and organisations over many years," Woad wrote in an Instagram post thanking her family and coaches. "I am very excited about this next chapter."

Woad's next chapter is imminent, as the world No. 64 announced her professional debut at the 2025 Scottish Open next week.

The field of established golf pros are already on notice, with Sweden's No. 30 Madelene Sagström warning that "[Woad is] going to take European and American golf by storm very soon."

Young Rosters Clash as LA Sparks Welcome Washington on Tuesday

LA Sparks forward Azurá Stevens celebrates a 2025 WNBA win.
The LA Sparks will face Washington as they look to move up the WNBA standings. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Tuesday's WNBA tilts feature a season-first clash between two young pro cores, as the No. 11 LA Sparks host the No. 7 Washington Mystics in the teams' last tilt before the 2025 All-Star break.

While Washington is a consistent presence above the playoff line in this season's standings — thanks in large part to the Mystics' two All-Star rookies, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen — LA is still finding their way.

Led by champion veterans Kelsey Plum and Azurá Stevens, the Sparks' roster includes youthful talent like forward Rickea Jackson and rookie guard Sarah Ashlee Barker, with this month's return of guard Rae Burrell from injury also boosting the young LA lineup.

"She's just the energizer bunny," Sparks head coach Lynne Roberts said of Burrell. "She puts pressure on the defense. I feel like she's getting in a groove."

Even more, the Sparks are eyeing the return of their 2024 No. 2 overall draftee Cameron Brink, with the forward inching close to competitive play just over a year after an ACL tear ended her rookie campaign.

Currently sitting in a lottery position, LA will aim to dig out a win — and some much-needed midseason momentum — in their last game before the All-Star break:

  • No. 7 Washington Mystics vs. No. 11 Los Angeles Sparks, Tuesday at 10 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): Fresh off a Sunday victory over the No. 13 Connecticut Sun, the Sparks will look to claim their first back-to-back home wins this season when they try to upend a Mystics side that's comfortable playing in the clutch.
  • No. 6 Indiana Fever vs. No. 13 Connecticut Sun, Tuesday at 8 PM ET (ESPN): The Fever are on a roll, hoping to tack on a third-straight win as they eye a deep post-All-Star run.

NWSL Teams Take on New Competitors in Summer Friendlies

Palmeiras's Gaby Santos tries to slide tackle Kansas City attacker Michelle Cooper as she dribbles the ball during a 2025 Teal Rising Cup semifinal.
The KC Current defeated Brazil's Palmeiras in their 2025 Teal Rising Cup semifinal. (Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)

The 2025 NWSL season is on summer international break, but many clubs aren't stopping play, with teams competing in strategic friendlies to test their depth and prowess during the long July window.

Last Tuesday, the Houston Dash hosted Liga MX side CF Monterrey, storming past Las Rayadas 4-0 behind goals from defender Avery Patterson and midfielders Delanie Sheehan, Maggie Graham, and Kiki Van Zanten.

The North Carolina Courage then played Liga MX titans Tigres UANL to a scoreless draw in a weather-shortened match on Wednesday.

On Sunday, Racing Louisville tested new and returning players — including star Bethany Balcer — in a domestic clash with regional USL Super League rivals Lexington SC, with the 1-1 draw serving as the NWSL side's tune-up to The Women's Cup, which kicks off this weekend in Brazil.

Meanwhile in Kansas City, the Current kicked off its inaugural four-team Teal Rising Cup tournament on Saturday, securing a 3-0 win over Brazil Série A1 club Palmeiras thanks in large part to forward Haley Hopkins's first-half brace.

The Current will next play in Tuesday's tournament final against Série A1's Corinthians, a team that defeated the Chicago Stars 1-0 in their Saturday semifinal with a last-gasp stoppage-time goal.

How to watch the Teal Rising Cup finale

The first-ever Teal Rising Cup will conclude on Tuesday, with the Chicago Stars and Palmeiras facing off in the mini-tournament's third-place match at 6 PM ET before the KC Current battles the Corinthians for the trophy at 9 PM ET.

Both matches will stream live on ESPN+.

Boston Legacy FC Plans Performance Center as WNBA Star Aliyah Boston Buys In

A rendering of the performance center being constructed for the NWSL expansion team Boston Legacy FC.
The Legacy intend to move into their exclusive performance center by 2026. (Boston Legacy FC)

Incoming 2026 NWSL expansion team Boston Legacy FC is making big moves, with two key Monday announcements shoring up the club's place in the larger New England sports ecosystem.

Buying into the Legacy on Monday was Indiana Fever center Aliyah Boston, with the 2023 WNBA Rookie of the Year investing in the club after playing high school ball at Massachusetts's Worcester Academy.

"I'm proud to join the ownership group of the Boston Legacy. This city helped raise me, and the support I felt here shaped so much of who I am," the three-time WNBA All-Star said in a club statement. "And yes... Boston repping Boston just felt right!"

With her investment, Boston joins a growing roster of current and former WNBA stars buying into the NWSL, including Angel City investor Candace Parker, Bay FC advisor Sabrina Ionescu, and Gotham FC minority owner Sue Bird.

Along with their famous new investor, the Legacy also revealed plans on Monday to construct a privately funded, $27 million purpose-built team performance center in nearby Brockton, Massachusetts.

Slated to open prior to the 2026 preseason, the center boasts a fully outfitted 30,000 square-foot training building, a bubble dome for year-round practice, and six fields of various surfaces — some of which will be available to youth teams in the community.

"Competing at the highest level demands an environment that elevates every aspect of performance — and this new facility is a major step forward in how we support our players every single day," said Legacy controlling owner Jennifer Epstein.

A couple of those incoming players were announced earlier this month, as the Legacy welcomed Bundesliga free agent and midfielder Annie Karich as the team's first signee before inking French Première Ligue forward Aïssata Traoré — the first-ever NWSL player from Mali — late last week.

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