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Contenders and pretenders in women’s college basketball

Sam Thomas and Bendu Yeaney talk during Arizona’s win over Oregon State on Sunday. (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

With Selection Sunday (yes, Sunday this year) basically a month away, talk is heating up around seeding and who could make a March run. The NCAA Selection Committee recently revealed its top 16 seeds, and ESPN’s Charlie Creme has been updating his bracketology regularly.

But every year, there are at least one or two teams that sneak up to those better seed lines thanks to fortunate resumes that perhaps oversell their true standing in the national landscape. We’ve taken a look at a handful of the teams Creme has had on the No. 2 or No. 3 line to find who those teams might be.

Obviously, everyone in this group is a contender in some way. You don’t get to this point without at least having a shot to make the Final Four. But who are the teams that have a truly realistic chance at knocking off a No. 1 seed and making the Final Four? And who are the teams that could be headed for a first-weekend exit at the hands of a No. 6 or No. 7?

Arizona: Contender

Dawn Staley has to be the frontrunner for Coach of the Year, but it’s hard to ignore the job Adia Barnes has done in keeping this team in the top ten despite losing the face of the rebuild in Aari McDonald. Arizona has ridden the momentum of last year’s enthralling postseason run and is in position to do it again this March.

Under Barnes, the Wildcats have become one of the nation’s premier defensive units by forcing turnovers without getting out of rebounding position. It’s rare for a team to be able to accomplish both. Rare enough, in fact, that Arizona is the only team that has rebounded over 70 percent of opponent misses and turned opponents over on over 22 percent of their possessions in each of the last two seasons.

The scariest part for the rest of the country? The Wildcat defense is doing this despite some bad luck this season. As Ken Pomeroy has pointed out in the past, defenses have minimal control over whether an opponent’s 3-pointers go in. The scouting report on shooters generally isn’t “force them to miss 3s;” it’s “force them to put the ball on the floor instead of taking 3s in the first place.” This is the concept driving Arizona’s defensive misfortune: Their opponent 3-point percentage is in the bottom half of the country even though they have a top-30 2-point defense and rank in the top quarter of teams in opponent 3-point rate.

At some point, Arizona’s opponents are going to start missing 3s. When that happens, watch out.

Michigan: Contender

This answer may have been different a month ago when Michigan was coming off of a 21-point loss to Nebraska. To that point, the Wolverines’ only road tests against tournament-level competition had resulted in blowout defeats, which left them with a lot of questions.

Since then, they’ve rattled off eight straight wins, including drubbings of Maryland and Ohio State on the road. The Wolverines will have to get used to life without Leigha Brown for a while, but that didn’t phase them in their most recent win over Iowa on Sunday. The way freshman Laila Phelia (24 points) and sophomore Cameron Williams (8 points on 4-of-5 shooting) played in that one goes to show that this team may be deeper than they’ve gotten credit for.

A quick look at Michigan’s remaining schedule shows that they’ll be favored in every game until the return trip to Iowa in their regular season finale. Already atop the Big Ten standings, they have to be considered the favorites to win the league, and the No. 3 seed they were given in the first NCAA seeding reveal should turn into a No. 2 the next time around.

If Michigan can finish off the Big Ten regular season championship and win the conference tournament as well, they still may have a path to a No. 1 seed. With all the seniors on this roster starting to play with a sense of urgency, this is a team that could make some serious noise next month.

Tennessee: Pretender

Our first pretender on the board fell to a No. 3 seed in Creme’s most recent bracketology. What Kellie Harper has accomplished in Year 3 in Knoxville has been commendable, especially when you consider that she spent the better part of two months going 11-1 without leading returning scorer Rae Burrell.

But Rocky Top has been living on the edge all season. They are 7-0 in games decided by single digits, and they’ve pulled out both of their overtime games so far. Losses in the last two weeks to Auburn by 10, Florida by 25 and UConn by 19 have given us a pretty good indication that this team has a long way to go if it wants to be worthy of a No. 2 seed.

There are shades of last year’s Texas A&M team all over this profile. You may recall that those Aggies rode their close-game magic into the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, when they narrowly avoided upsets to No. 15 seed Troy and No. 7 seed Iowa State, but they still became the first No. 2 seed to fall after losing to Arizona in the Sweet 16. Don’t be surprised to see a similar fate for the Lady Vols.

Texas: Pretender

Vic Schaefer’s pressure defense has been effective all season: The Longhorns are holding opponents below 60 points per game for the first time in six years. It’s a defense that limited scoring juggernaut Iowa State (albeit without Ashley and Aubrey Joens) and Kansas State to under 50 points, and held Ayoka Lee to a human 45 percent from the field.

So why are they pretenders? Their three-game losing streak and .500 record in conference play raise some small red flags, but ultimately it comes down to how they score the ball. Much of the Longhorns’ offense comes from their ability to generate turnovers and get out and run. In the halfcourt, they rely on getting the ball on the rim and crashing the glass. When Texas goes up against teams who take care of the ball and have enough frontcourt size to keep them off the offensive boards, they run into trouble.

Texas also heavily eschews the 3-point line, ranking 326th in 3-point attempt rate. It’s another reason lengthy teams give them trouble — with so much of their scoring coming in the paint, good rim protectors can have a greater impact. Kansas’ Taiyanna Jackson and Tennessee’s Alexus Dye each had four blocks in wins over Texas, and Dye’s teammate, Tamari Key, racked up an incredible 10 blocks.

To be contenders, you have to be able to compete with South Carolina. With all the length and shot blocking ability the Gamecocks have, it’d be tough to imagine Texas scoring enough to win that matchup. Add in the fact that they rank 299th in free-throw percentage, and the odds of them holding a late-game lead over a pesky lower seed are even lower.

Indiana and UConn: It depends

This may be a bit of a cop-out, but the correct answer for each of these teams hinges on health and player availability.

For Indiana, that comes down to when Mackenzie Holmes can return. The Hoosiers weren’t deep even before she went down with a knee injury, but at full strength their starting five can compete with just about anybody in the country. Sans Holmes, Indiana has looked frighteningly beatable.

They’ve gone 4-1, but that includes three scares against non-tournament teams — an overtime win and a seven-point win over Purdue, and a win over Minnesota in which they trailed at the fourth-quarter media timeout — and a beatdown at the hands of Michigan. The Wolverines exposed the vulnerability of what’s left of Indiana’s frontcourt by out-rebounding the Hoosiers by a whopping 32.

According to CBB Analytics, Indiana has outscored opponents by 27.6 points per 100 possessions with Holmes on the court this year and just 7.9 without her, basically the equivalent of dropping from North Carolina to Fairfield. If Holmes is back, the Hoosiers can build on their Elite Eight run last year and make their first ever Final Four. Without her, don’t count on the Sweet 16.

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Azzi Fudd has provided UConn with a boost since she returned two weeks ago. (M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

From UConn’s perspective, Paige Bueckers is the obvious name that comes to mind, but health has been an issue up and down the roster all season. Azzi Fudd, Christyn Williams, Dorka Juhasz and Nika Mühl have all missed time at various points.

Like Indiana, the Huskies have been able to avoid too much damage in the loss column; Geno Auriemma’s squad has just one loss since Christmas. But like Indiana, UConn has looked human in some of its wins — something we aren’t used to seeing from this team in conference play. The Huskies have already won three Big East games by single digits, including an uninspiring eight-point win over sub-.500 Providence. And in that one loss, they had just six rotation players available and had no answer for Oregon.

The good news for UConn is that the last two wins have been dominant ones against quality competition, and Fudd finally looked like the No. 1 recruit in their 19-point win over Tennessee on Sunday. But even when Bueckers comes back, this team will have a lot of gelling to do before it’s at its peak. This is a program that hasn’t missed the Final Four since Android phones came out, but it’s important to remember that South Carolina ran away from them in their November matchup with Bueckers still on the court. The recent returns are promising, but to get back into that No. 1 conversation, they’ll need Bueckers at full strength.

Oregon: Contender

Oregon has dealt with as many personnel issues as UConn has, but the key for the Ducks is timing. Oregon has its rotation back, and, knock on wood, should have its full complement of stars for the final month of the regular season and into the postseason.

Upon getting healthy, Oregon went on an impressive run that included multiple top-ten victories to vault themselves back into the AP Poll top 20. That stretch says a lot about this team’s ceiling. The Ducks didn’t look the part in their Arizona trip this past weekend, but a combined 7-for-33 mark from 3 isn’t the type of performance that we should expect going forward.

Those two games are a good reminder that Oregon is still going to have ups and downs throughout the next month — it’s a group that had to wait until a few weeks ago to all play together, after all. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Kelly Graves going back to his time with Gonzaga, it’s that he knows how to have his teams playing their best basketball at the right time. When the calendar flips to March, look for the version of Oregon that knocked off two top-ten teams in one week.

Iowa State: Contender

In our championship betting preview last month, we wrote that we’d know a lot more about Iowa State after their games against Texas and Baylor. Turns out, all we really know is that the Joens sisters are critical to their team’s success.

Both Ashley and Aubrey missed their game against Texas due to COVID-19 protocols, and the Cyclones managed just 48 points in an 18-point defeat. The sisters returned against Baylor, but their shooting didn’t — they combined to hit just four of their 16 shots. Again, the Cyclones were on the wrong end of a lopsided score.

Iowa State has gotten back on track since, winning all four of their games by at least 15. It’s fair to wonder how they’d fare against the top of the Big 12 with their starters on the court and hitting shots. We’ll have to wait until the rematches later this month for that. For now, the metrics still love this team, as the Her Hoop Stats ratings and the Massey Ratings each have them in the top ten. Given how dangerous they’ve looked in all but one week this season, it’s hard to view the Cyclones as anything but contenders.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Gotham FC Signs Record-Breaking Sponsorship Deal with Dove

Emily Sonnett shows off the new Dove sponsorship above her last name on her Gotham jersey.
Dove's partnership with Gotham is the brand's first major investment in a women's sports team. (Gotham FC)

Gotham and Dove are teaming up, with the 2023 NWSL champs signing a record-setting multi-year kit partnership with the beauty brand on Thursday.

As Dove's first major investment in a women's sports team, the move also ranks as the highest-ever back-of-jersey sponsorship deal in NWSL history.

While Gotham did not provide specific numbers, the contract surpasses Bay FC's then-record $500,000 deal with private equity giant Sixth Street.

Dove joins Gotham in fight to keep girls in sports

The partnership is a part of Gotham's "Keep Her in the Game" initiative, a community effort launched last August to help adolescent girls stay in sports. Dove will serve as the program's presenting sponsor.

"Dove is the ultimate leader in female strength and empowerment, and we could not be prouder to partner with the brand in a number of impactful ways," Gotham FC chief business officer Ryan Dillon said in the team's release. "We are excited to team up with Dove to create key pathways for young female athletes to stay in sports, develop confidence, and become strong future leaders."

"The partnership is taking effect at a crucial time when supporting girls in sports has never been more important."

With girls twice as likely as boys to abandon sports by age 14, "Keep Her in the Game" aims to bolster young athletes' resilience and amplify the joy and connection that happens on and off the playing field.

After impacting 30 local New Jersey and New York youth clubs and more than 500 players in 2024, the initiative is aiming to double its reach in 2025. It will also pass the proverbial mic to the young athletes themselves by creating a Youth Leadership Council.

"The data is clear: Sports build confidence, leadership skills and resilience in young women, benefiting them for years to come," stated Laura DiMiceli, the head of personal care sports marketing for Dove's parent company, Unilever North America. "Dove is committed to supporting 'Keep Her in the Game' as part of our overall mission to help young girls pursue sports and keep playing the games they love."

Unrivaled to Crown First-Ever 1v1 Tournament Champion

Lunar Owls forward Napheesa Collier dribbles the ball during an Unrivaled game.
Napheesa Collier is one of four Unrivaled players competing for the 1v1 tournament's $200,000 prize. (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Unrivaled 3×3 Basketball will crown its first-ever 1v1 tournament champion on Friday night, when all four semifinalists take the court with a $200,000 grand prize on the line.

Vinyl guard Arike Ogunbowale will kick off the semis against Mist forward Aaliyah Edwards, before Unrivaled co-founder and Lunar Owls forward Napheesa Collier faces Rose forward Azurá Stevens. The victors will immediately advance to the night's best-of-three final series.

Notably, Friday's set puts alma mater pride on center court. A trio of UConn alums in Collier, Stevens, and Edwards will all clock in, while Ogunbowale reps Notre Dame — one of just three teams to beat the Huskies this NCAA season.

Along with those priceless bragging rights, the semifinalists are battling for a six-figure payday, though none will leave empty-handed. Each are guaranteed at least $25,000, with $50,000 on deck for the tournament's runner-up.

The players' Unrivaled teammates will also be watching with interest, as the winner's entire 3×3 team will snag $10,000 each.

Though 1v1 can feel like a schoolyard version of basketball, with this much money involved, expect the competition to rise miles above playground tussles.

Rose BC's Angel Reese defends Mist forward Aaliyah Edwards during an Unrivaled game.
Aaliyah Edwards is one of three UConn alums in the Unrivaled 1v1 semifinals. (Rich Storry/Getty Images)

Endurance could decide Unrivaled 1v1 tournament champion

Friday's format is in part a test of stamina, as players stare down a grueling schedule where the eventual winner must play either three or four 1v1 games in a single night.

To that end, Collier's elite conditioning could make her the favorite, if she can outlast Stevens in the pair's semifinal.

"Her motor is unmatched," Stevens said of Collier's endurance, a key factor in her success so far. "I try to conserve some energy in between possessions, especially when the games get really tiring."

Motors aside, Friday's title will boil down to fundamentals — and which athlete best leverages their personal skillset.

"I have to use my size and stick to my strengths," said Edwards. "It’s about imposing my will and getting the job done."

How to watch the Unrivaled 1v1 tournament finals

The inaugural Unrivaled 1v1 tournament concludes on Friday. Live coverage begins at 7:30 PM ET on TNT.

USC Beats UCLA as JuJu Watkins Ends Bruins’ Undefeated NCAA Season

USC's JuJu Watkins drives to the basket between UCLA's Janiah Barker and Elina Aarnisalo.
Watkins scored 38 points to hand UCLA their first loss of the season. (Robert Hanashiro/Imagn Images)

The last perfect DI basketball season has officially fallen, as USC phenom JuJu Watkins put up a historic performance to lead the No. 6 Trojans to a 71-60 win over then-undefeated No. 1 UCLA on Thursday.

Watkins finished the night with 38 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, and eight blocks, becoming the first DI player to register an overall stat-line so robust in 20 years.

"It took everything. It's been a rough couple weeks for me," Watkins said after the game, referencing uncharacteristic performances leading up to Thursday's rivalry matchup. "To be able to kind of snap back into it and get into my rhythm here at Galen versus UCLA, it's really all I could ask for."

"I'm really just like a kid out there and living out my dream."

Throughout the back-and-forth battle, Watkins's consistency made all the difference. She scored every one of USC's 14 second-quarter points, and helped lead a monster fourth quarter in which the Trojans slammed the door by outscoring the Bruins 24-8.

"I didn't teach JuJu any of that," commented USC head coach Lindsay Gottlieb after the game. "[I] just try to put her in situations to be her best self, and she does most of that work. What I was so impressed with tonight, obviously, was just the mentality she came out with."

With the marquee win, USC now sits firmly atop the Big Ten. That said, UCLA will have a chance to avenge the loss in the pair's March 1st rematch, when that final regular-season game could decide the conference title.

Until then, the Trojans will be riding high on their Thursday night dominance.

"We'll never forget this night," Gottlieb said. "It's as good as anything I've ever seen."

UConn star Paige Bueckers dribbles the ball during a game.
UConn takes on South Carolina on Sunday. (Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)

How to watch Top 10 NCAA basketball this weekend

With no undefeated teams left in DI basketball, Watkins's performance has put the field on notice to not make any assumptions about who might end up on top.

While Sunday will see USC roll against unranked Washington and UCLA try to bounce back against No. 22 Michigan State, the NCAA slate will also serve up two huge Top 10 matchups.

First, No. 7 UConn will take their final major regular-season test when they visit No. 4 South Carolina at 1 PM ET, when Paige Bueckers and the Huskies will aim to pull off a similarly impressive USC-inspired upset.

Then at 3 PM ET, No. 5 LSU heads to No. 3 Texas, where the Tigers will hunt their first win over the Longhorns in more than 22 years.

Both elite meetings are set to air live on ABC.

Pro Women’s Lacrosse League Debuts at WLL Championship Series

A promotional graphic for the WLL Championship Series.
The WLL played its first-ever pro games at this week's Lexus Championship Series. (ESPN)

The brand-new professional Women's Lacrosse League (WLL) made its official debut this week just outside of Washington, DC, where its first-ever game saw the New York Charging take down the Maryland Charm 14-13 in the WLL Championship Series.

After the inaugural Tuesday result, the action continued on Wednesday, when the California Palms opened their WLL account by getting the better of the Boston Guard in a tight 16-15 matchup.

Founded and run by the Premier Lacrosse League, the WLL fosters top-level competition as the sport gears up for its 2028 Olympic return.

The four-team WLL Championship Series follows an Olympic-style "sixes" format. Unlike traditional lacrosse, which uses a larger pitch and 10 athletes per team, sixes employs a condensed field with six players per side.

In the Championship Series, teams are first competing in three round-robin games to determine semifinal seedings. The tournament will culminate with the knockout semifinal and final rounds on Sunday and Monday, respectively.

Team USA lacrosse star Charlotte North gestures during a 2022 World Championship game.
Team USA star Charlotte North competes for the WLL's Boston Guard. (Ryan Hunt/Getty Images)

WLL looks to level up lacrosse ahead of 2028 Olympics

Despite the competition's quick turnaround, the WLL represents a growing professionalization movement in women's lacrosse — with all involved betting big on the sport's Olympic success in LA.

When lacrosse steps back onto the Olympic stage in 2028, it will have been 80 years since its last 1948 outing — and even then, it was merely a demonstration event. The last time the sport earned medals was in 1908.

Furthermore, the sport's entire Olympic history rests in the men's game — 2028 will see women take the Olympic lacrosse pitch for the first time ever.

"We are honored to be a part of the WLL, and we couldn't be more excited to bring this game to the fans in new ways than ever before," said Boston Guard star Charlotte North in a league statement.

"We firmly believe that this is the beginning of what will be a monumental movement in the game of professional women's lacrosse, and for female athletes around the globe.... It's our time."

Former Northwestern lacrosse star Izzy Scane shoots the ball during an NCAA game.
Izzy Scane, the NCAA DI lacrosse career scoring leader, plays for the New York Charging. (Greg Fiume/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

How to watch the WLL Championship Series

The tournament's round-robin play continues with the Maryland Charm facing off against the Boston guard at 9 PM ET on Thursday, before the California Palms contend with the New York Charging at 6 PM ET on Friday.

All WLL Championship Series games will stream live on ESPN+, with Sunday's and Monday's knockout rounds airing live on ESPN2.

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