We’ve reached a historic WNBA Finals, as the two teams with the lowest combined winning percentage in WNBA Finals history will square off for all the glory.

The No. 6 Sky made their way here by taking apart the top-seeded Sun, while the No. 5 Mercury clawed their way to a thrilling semifinal win in Game 5 over the Aces to set up a rematch of the 2014 Finals.

With so much on the line for the teams, it’s always fun to put something on the line for yourself as well. That’s where betting comes in.

Let’s get you set for everything you need to know to bet on the WNBA Finals.

Chicago Sky

The Sky present an interesting betting case as the quintessential “peaking at the right time” team. It’s often the case in sports that such teams find another gear to the extent that sportsbook models aren’t able to adjust fast enough.

This seems to be true with Chicago, who has not only won five of its six playoff games but also covered the betting spread in all five wins. That even includes two double-digit wins as underdogs.

Part of the reason is their elevated play, of course, and it wouldn’t be fair to ignore the contributions of players like Kahleah Copper or Azurá Stevens who have stepped up their game. But the presence of Candace Parker has been a key to this surprising run.

Much has been made of Chicago’s overall win-loss records with and without Parker this season, and that point remains true when looking at the records against the spread (ATS). At 11-11 with one push, the Sky were a .500 ATS team with Parker in the lineup during the regular season. In theory, every team should be a .500 ATS team if the sportsbooks are good at setting the lines.

In the nine games Parker missed, however, the Sky covered in just one of them. Combine that with the experience and intangibles the former champion brings to a franchise with no rings, and maybe we should have seen this coming.

Parker also had a significant effect on the totals during the regular season: The under hit in five of nine games without her on the floor but in just eight of the 23 games that she played. There were higher scoring totals in the games with last year’s Defensive Player of the Year on the court. Go figure.

Phoenix Mercury

It’s easy to forget now, but the Mercury entered the second half of the season firmly on the playoff bubble. They sat in seventh place at the Olympic break, just a game up on the ninth-place Wings.

What followed was a ten-game winning streak that cemented Phoenix’s status as contenders and earned their bettors lots of money in the process. The Mercury covered the spread in seven of their first eight games coming out of the break, and in doing so they launched themselves up the leaderboard of most profitable teams.

As it stands now, no team has earned its bettors more money on either the moneylines or the spread. Including the regular season and the playoffs, the Mercury are 25-13 against the spread (with a push) and would have earned $888 for bettors who bet $100 on all of their moneylines.

The concern for Phoenix going forward will be depth. With Kia Nurse’s season over and Sophie Cunningham still nursing an injury, Sandy Brondello played just seven players in Game 5 against Las Vegas. Kia Vaughn and Bria Hartley combined for 20 minutes, which was the entirety of the bench’s contributions.

Shey Peddy was sensational in the win — and has been for the last few games in which she’s been called on to step up — but the soon-to-be 33-year-old had played 30 minutes just once in her career prior to September. The injuries and heavy starter minutes in the Game 5 war against Las Vegas may come back to hurt the Mercury as they go deeper into the Finals.

Where Phoenix can make up for that is in the paint. Chicago doesn’t have a Liz Cambage, so Brittney Griner will have a decided size advantage over anyone Chicago can throw at her. Expect more doubles in this matchup, so Phoenix’s perimeter shooting will be vital.

Previous matchups

When talking about the history between these two teams, the 2014 Finals immediately come to mind. Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner all played in that one, in which Phoenix emerged with the trophy.

More relevant for betting on this year’s iteration, Phoenix took all three regular season matchups in 2021. The first two were without Parker on the floor, and both were essentially coin-flip games. One ended in overtime, the other gave us a half-court Eurostep for the win.

A EUROSTEP HALFCOURT GAME WINNER 😳

Kia Nurse 🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/8HMnfAEXIn

— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) June 2, 2021

The Mercury took the last matchup by 20 points in the midst of their incredible August run. All three games closed with the home team favored by fewer than two points, and Phoenix covered in each game.

Before this year, the Sky had covered the spread in seven of their last eight matchups with the Mercury, including the last time they met in the playoffs — a 105-76 Sky win in the 2019 first round.

Home sweet home?

In typical pre-pandemic years, home-court advantage has been worth multiple points per game at basically any high level of basketball, including in the WNBA. After a 2020 season without home court for anyone, that factor was supposed to come back into play this season.

Not so, according to the numbers. Home teams outscored road teams during the regular season by less than half a point per game, and in the playoffs they’ve been practically even at 1,093 to 1,088.

Sportsbooks still don’t see it that way though. Lines for the semis moved by close to five points when the series shifted locations, a number that would have been consistent with past seasons’ data.

Home-court/field advantage has been steadily declining across most sports in recent years as replay review becomes more prevalent and limits the role of human error in officiating, but that wouldn’t be enough to explain the drastic drop in the WNBA this year. The culprit is presumably a combination of factors, such as fan restrictions at certain arenas and random variance.

Regardless, if bettors are looking for an edge on the spread in this series, the road teams may have one. They’ve covered in eight of 13 playoff games so far.

Half and quarter totals

Another edge for bettors may come in the over/unders for each half or quarter. Not all sportsbooks offer this, but the ones that do generally set those lines by dividing the game total by approximately two for the halves and by four for the quarters.

That’s already a little inefficient during the regular season, when games tend to get slower and teams average lower scoring during each successive quarter (and thus half). During the playoffs, that effect magnifies as the energy expenditure ramps up and legs tire even earlier.

This year, teams have totaled 1,121 points in the first half of all playoff games and just 1,013 in the second half. The quarter totals have dropped from 595 in first quarters to 489 in fourth quarters, marking an 18 percent decrease. It may be worth betting on the overs for the first half and quarter or on the second-half and fourth-quarter unders.

Series lines

Several sportsbooks are offering moneylines on the series winner, and they all like it to be a tight battle.

PointsBet Sportsbook has the Phoenix line at -120 and Chicago at +100, implying a 52 percent win probability for the Mercury.

Some books, PointsBet included, allow you to cash out your bet for the current value partway through (think of it like selling stocks). On those books, all you need for the Sky +100 side to turn a profit is for Chicago to steal one of two in Phoenix. If the series shifts to the Windy City knotted at one apiece, Chicago will likely take over as the favorite and that bet will increase in value.

Finals MVP

On Thursday, BetRivers Sportsbook posted Finals MVP odds for top players from the three teams remaining at that time. That list has been cut to 11 players, led by Griner and Taurasi with +300 odds each.

Those odds work the same way as game and series moneylines, so check out our intro if you’re new to betting and are interested in putting money on a Finals MVP winner.

I’m looking at the point guards here for good longshot odds. Skylar Diggins-Smith is at +1000 while you can get Courtney Vandersloot for +1400.

In Diggins-Smith’s case, Griner and Taurasi are certainly more likely to take the award, but are they really over three times more likely? That’s what these odds imply, but the third member of the Big Three may be a little closer to the first two than that suggests.

As for Vandersloot, while voters do love to back the leading scorer (which will most likely be Copper), they also love all-around stats and leadership. As the veteran signal caller of the offense and the best passer in the league for several years running, Vandersloot has a pretty clear path to winning this award as well.

For a more likely bet, go with Parker at +400: Her status as a legend (and hometown hero) will be hard for voters to look past if the Sky win. Her odds are almost even with Copper, but that doesn’t accurately reflect the emotions and storylines that will be at play.

(Also, while I won’t recommend betting on her, can we just stop and appreciate the fact that Shey Peddy is on this list at all? You can actually bet on Shey Peddy to win the Finals MVP … and she’s even ahead of three players!)

The verdict

For both Game 1 (Chicago +3.5) and the series, I see more value on the Chicago side. The way the Sky are clicking and the near-disappearance of home court should be enough to keep this series close, and that favors the underdog. The extra few days of rest shouldn’t hurt either.

As far as the over/unders, we’re talking about a Chicago team who made us forget how historic Connecticut was on defense and a Phoenix squad that is better equipped to simply outscore them than to stop them. Both have smaller offensively minded backcourts as well. I’ll ride the overs unless they start to creep too high later in the series. Game 1’s line is at 166.5 on PointsBet, a spot at which I’m definitely comfortable taking the over.

Whether you put money on the games or not, enjoy the moment. It’s not every year that we get a matchup this enticing and unlikely, so sit back and take it in. It’s bound to be entertaining.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

In this week's episode of The Late Sub, host Claire Watkins digs into what happened to Gotham FC's 2024 superteam — and whether the NWSL is built for such blockbuster rosters.

With the NJ/NY club kicking off with the same record over the first seven matches in 2025 as the 2024 roster achieved, Watkins uses Gotham to explore "a case study of how a super team does not work in the NWSL."

First, Watkins explains exactly what is meant by a superteam, defining the concept as being rooted in procuring massive talent through free agency — a strategy Gotham employed by signing four former No. 1 NWSL Draft picks and current USWNT veterans Rose Lavelle, Emily Sonnett, Tierna Davidson, and Crystal Dunn to build their 2024 superteam.

"Gotham is a perfect example of why super teams do not translate to the NWSL," says Watkins. "They were very good last year, they finished top four, they make it to the semifinals. They didn't win anything."

The reasons for the failure of a superteam in the NWSL, according to Watkins, include the pressures faced by players balancing the needs of their stacked club roster with their individual development needs to stay atop the international game.

"They need to be playing a certain amount of minutes. They need to be playing in certain positions," notes Watkins. "These players get notes from their US coaches on what they want to see. It's not a failing of anybody's character. It's their job, it's their livelihood. To get back to that level, they have to kind of be of two minds of what's best for them."

NWSL business model rewards parity over superteams

Watkins also digs into the role of the salary cap in NWSL teams' ability to retain top talent.

"It really doesn't seem like the salary cap is going anywhere, and that means the NWSL isn't in a place to reward established stars for the wages that they probably deserve," says Watkins.

Comparing the US league to European dynasties like Chelsea, Lyon, and Barcelona, Watkins explains, "That is not what the NWSL is built for. It's not really what the NWSL wants."

Instead, argues Watkins, the NWSL rewards "teams that build in a different way," by scouting less recognized talent and "building them up into All-Stars" — a "bottom-up" method that creates the league's most successful teams.

It's a lesson that Gotham is learning with the equitable success the club is experiencing this season, despite losing a significant amount of big-name talent from their 2024 superteam in the offseason.

"They haven't really stumbled in the wake of these departures, proving my point," remarks Watkins.

Ultimately, "the NWSL has decided that they don't really want the Gothams of the world," argues Watkins.

"They don't want roster stashing or this top-down talent that can really bulldoze a league. That is the opposite of what the NWSL is selling. And I think that's both cool and a little bit of a harder road sometimes."

About 'The Late Sub' with Claire Watkins

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes on the USWNT, NWSL, and all things women's soccer. Special guest appearances featuring the biggest names in women’s sports make TLS a must-listen for every soccer fan.

Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women’s Sports newsletter for more.

Subscribe to The Late Sub to never miss an episode.

The city of Columbia, South Carolina, honored South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley with her very own statue this week, reflecting the three-time national champion leader's legacy as a change-maker in women's college basketball.

The 14-foot bronze likeness, which sits just next to the university's alumni center, reflects Staley's championship prowess, with the statue showing the coach on a ladder holding a cut-down basketball net.

"This statue is a tribute, but it really doesn't encompass what she's delivered for us as a community, what she's done for women’s sports, what she's done for young people, especially young women,” Columbia mayor Daniel Rickenmann told reporters before Wednesday's ceremony.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Just Women’s Sports (@justwomenssports)

A legendary coaching resume

After her decorated pro career, the six-time WNBA All-Star and three-time Olympic gold medalist took over the South Carolina coaching job in 2008, building the program into the behemoth it is today.

To date, Staley has led the Gamecocks to nine SEC regular-season titles and nine conference tournament crowns as well as seven Final Fours — including appearances in the last five NCAA tournament semifinals.

The four-time National Coach of the Year is far from done, though.

Staley, who turns 55 years old on Sunday, inked a contract in January to remain with South Carolina through the 2029/30 NCAA season.

That blockbuster deal — worth over $25 million — makes her the highest paid women's college basketball coach in history.

Staley agreed to statue to increase representation

Staley's statue now joins one of former star player and now reigning three-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson, who saw her own likeness installed outside Colonial Life Arena in 2021.

Though initially opposed to becoming a bronze sculpture, Staley later acquiesced to the honor in order to boost the currently low numbers of US statues depicting women, particularly Black women.

"I agreed to the statue not for me, but for the girl who will walk by one day and wonder who I was," Staley said at the Wednesday unveiling. "Maybe she'll look me up. She'll see that I did some things in basketball, of course — but I hope she sees much more."

"I hope she sees that I was a champion for equity and equality. That in my own way, I pushed for change... not as someone perfect or extraordinary, but as a regular girl who used her gifts to open doors so other girls wouldn't have to knock as hard."

The legendary 1999 World Cup-winning USWNT is heading to Hollywood, with Netflix announcing Wednesday that the streamer is in development on The 99'ers, a feature film based on Jeré Longman’s book The Girls of Summer: The US Women's Soccer Team and How It Changed the World.

Like Longman's book, the film will chronicle the USWNT's journey to winning the 1999 World Cup before a then-US record crowd at the Rose Bowl — as well as the ongoing impact that victory has on women's sports worldwide.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Just Women’s Sports (@justwomenssports)

Helmed by Liza Chasin from 3dot Productions as well as a production team that includes actor Ryan Reynolds, who co-owns third-tier UK men's soccer club Wrexham AFC, the film will be directed by Nicole Kassell.

Kassell, who's resume includes The Leftovers and The Americans, earned both an Emmy and Director's Guild Award for her work on the HBO series Watchmen.

Screenwriters Katie Lovejoy and Dana Stevens, who wrote Netflix's Love at First Sight and The Woman King, respectively, will pen The 99'ers script.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Just Women’s Sports (@justwomenssports)

Netflix boosts women's soccer content in lead-up to World Cups

This is far from Netflix's first foray into women's sports, with the streamer boasting documentaries on tennis star Naomi Osaka and gymnastics legend Simone Biles, among others — and a new series on F1 Academy women drivers dropping later this month.

Even more, the content giant is all-in on women's soccer. After chronicling the 2023 World Cup journey of the USWNT in a four-part docuseries, Netflix closed 2024 by snagging the exclusive US broadcast rights to the 2027 and 2031 Women's World Cups.

While Netflix acquired the rights to Longman's book in 2020, the timing of The 99'ers development is likely an effort to bolster the broadcaster's women's soccer content in the lead-up to the upcoming World Cups.

The Chicago Stars parted ways with second-year manager Lorne Donaldson on Wednesday, as the last-place NWSL club attempts to bounce back from a dismal 1-5-0 start to the 2025 season.

"We are grateful to Lorne Donaldson for the culture, respect, and sense of self-belief he helped build within our squad. We appreciate his work and wish him the best for the future," said Stars GM Richard Feuz in a club statement.

Stars assistant coach Masaki Hemmi will step up in an interim capacity while the Chicago front office conducts its search for a replacement for Donaldson.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Just Women’s Sports (@justwomenssports)

Depleted roster a factor in Stars' struggles

Following an eighth-place finish and short-lived playoff push in 2024, a relatively dormant offseason transfer window, and a somewhat controversial rebrand, Chicago has struggled to find results this season — due in part to a dwindling lineup.

The team's opening day roster featured only six defenders — including an injured Natalia Kuikka, who has yet to make her 2025 club debut after suffering a knee sprain while on international duty with Finland in February.

Superstar USWNT forward Mallory Swanson also remains out indefinitely, having missed the first six games of the NWSL season due to personal reasons.

When points aren't coming, front offices often try to shake things up with sideline changes — though Chicago's troubles appear to extend far beyond the former head coach.