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NCAA Tournament Contenders: By The Numbers

@GAMECOCKWBB

Another year, another excellent season of college basketball, right?

Normally, we’d be fiercely debating over the rankings of the top teams, arguing over who deserves a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Instead, everyone’s just hoping to make it to the tournament safely, so that the season will be allowed to end in fireworks and (fanless) fanfare in San Antonio, with the long-awaited return of March Madness.

It’s no secret that the NCAA very badly needs the tournament to be played, even as a growing number of teams choose to cancel their seasons. While some teams are just trying to string together multiple games at this point, the top teams are all jostling for tournament seeds.

The lack of marquee non-conference games and the on again, off again scheduling makes it difficult to evaluate even the best teams. How do you compare a narrow win against a worse opponent to not playing at all? Do we rank teams at top strength or try to identify which teams are best prepared to weather the absence of their starting point guard or even their coach?

It’s harder than ever to rank the top teams, but that only means we have to look even closer at the stats. Ignoring the headlines in order to follow the numbers, here are the six teams with a real shot at the 2021 national championship.

 

LOUISVILLE IS READY FOR THE SPOTLIGHT

It would be tough to look past Louisville (14-0 ACC), who last week passed their first real test as the new No. 1 team, beating then-No. 23 Syracuse 67-54. Through the rest of the season, Louisville will want to show that it can handle playing on the road (the team has only gotten four road games in, the last one a two-point nail-biter against Wake Forest) and move up in the NET, where they are currently ranked fifth. Winning should take care of both. Add that to a team with the fourth-best field goal percentage in the entire country (49.0%) and Louisville is set up to find tournament success, regardless of their opponents.

Reigning ACC Player of the Year Dana Evans has continued to play phenomenal basketball and is averaging 19.5 points and 4.6 assists per game. The other three Cardinals in double figures are Hailey Van Lith (13.2) Kianna Smith (12.8) and Olivia Cochran (12.5). Van Lith and Cochran are both freshman tied for the team high with an impressive 6.4 rebounds per game. Louisville might not have expected them to contribute so much in their first year, and we might not have expected Louisville to be the No. 1 team at this point in the season, but as we head into February, they’re every bit deserving of the top seed.

 

UCONN LOOKS DOMINANT (AGAIN)

The top-ranked team in the all important NET, No. 3 UConn (10-0 Big East) is once again looking like a prohibitive favorite. In the entire nation, the Huskies are first in field goal percentage (53.5%) and scoring margin (37.3). The offense is clicking for 87 points and 22.3 assists per game, while the defense is holding opponents to below 50 points per game and 30% shooting.

Olivia Nelson-Ododa has established herself as a leader on and off the court, epitomized by her 65.3% field goal percentage and 2.1 blocks per game. And the latest headline-grabbing performance by freshman Paige Bueckers — 3-for-14 shooting but the will to hit a clutch 3 on a rolled ankle against Tennessee, and of course the eight rebounds and seven assists — is just more evidence of why the expectations for her were so high before she even played a game.

Bueckers is averaging a team-high 17.1 points and 2.9 steals per game as well as the nation’s 33rd most assists per game (5.1). The average NET rating of the teams UConn has beaten is 108, better than all but three other teams in the AP top 10, and convincing evidence that the Huskies are ready for a deep tournament run.

 

NC STATE: THE OTHER UNDEFEATED ACC SQUAD

Although they have only seen the court twice in 2021, No. 2 NC State (11-0 ACC) is still a tournament threat. Emerging from COVID quarantine, the Wolfpack looked rusty in a 89-87 win over Virginia Tech, needing to rally from 14 points down in the fourth quarter. They were without their star player, however, as Elissa Cunane is recovering from COVID. In the team’s previous game (all the way back on January 3rd against Boston College) Cunane didn’t even miss a shot en route to a perfect 9-of-9 from the field for a season-high 24 points.

Cunane has been superb all year long with a 58.2% shooting rate that is the 18th best in the entire sport, and Kayla Jones is right there at 57.3%. Between the efforts of Cunane, Jones, Jakie Brown-Turner and Jada Boyd, NC State averages a nation-high 33.8 defensive rebounds per game, with all four players averaging at least 5.7 rebounds per game. That defensive hustle and offensive efficiency should let the Wolfpack run with anyone. They’ll need both for their biggest game of the year: a February 1st showdown with No. 1 Louisville.

 

SOUTH CAROLINA IS FINDING THEIR GROOVE

As Aliyah Boston finds her footing, South Carolina (12-1 SEC) is looking more and more like the team everyone had ranked No. 1 preseason. Boston scored 26 with 16 rebounds and six blocks against then-No. 15 Arkansas only to return the very next game with a triple double, 16-11-10, against then-No. 22 Georgia. The reigning National Freshman of the Year is beginning to assert herself as a dominant big on both ends of the floor.

For most of the season, Zia Cooke has carried the scoring load, averaging 15.9 points per game. Nevertheless, in three straight games facing Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, Cooke failed to reach double digit scoring. The Gamecocks still managed to win those games by an average of 30 points, and Cooke responded with 16 in the win over Georgia as Dawn Staley’s team showed how dominant they could be with all cylinders clicking.

The NCAA’s NET metric ranks South Carolina third on the strength of their 7.6 blocks per game (1st) and 19.9 rebound margin (2nd). For a team with the highest aspirations, the plan is coming into focus: dominate in the paint and score by committee.

 

DON’T COUNT STANFORD OUT YET

No team has faced a more challenging schedule than No. 6 Stanford (12-2), but the Cardinal nonetheless held on to the top spot in the AP poll for six weeks before faltering in an uncharacteristic lack of focus against Colorado, before then losing to then-No. 6 UCLA. While the team won’t make excuses, it’s worth noting that Stanford has played just one game in its home gym of Maples Pavilion while living out of hotels since early December. And when you look at their opponents, only South Carolina has more quality wins.

Head coach Tara VanDerveer, who passed the legendary Pat Summitt to become the winningest coach in the sport earlier this season, has compiled another talented squad with the hopes of winning a national championship for the first time since 1992. VanDerveer will need Haley Jones to continue to play every position 1-4, Cameron Brink to limit her fouls so that she can see more floor time as an intimidating interior presence and lethal outside shooter, and Kiana Williams to hit shots at a higher rate. No one, however, will be more important than Anna Wilson, whose defense has been the cornerstone of the team’s identity as it navigates the best conference in the country. Despite their two losses, Stanford still has the talent and the coaching to win it all this year.

 

BAYLOR: THE STILL-DEFENDING CHAMPS STILL HAVE A CHANCE

All over the nation’s leaderboard despite their two losses, No. 9 Baylor (10-2 Big 12) cannot be counted out just yet. No team does a better job on the boards (+20.4), and only UConn has been outscoring its opponents by more than Baylor’s 35.1 points per game. The offense has enough ball movement to rank first with 24.7 assists per game and the defense is staunch enough to hold opponents to 29.5% from the field.

With the sixth-highest NET rating despite an uncharacteristic loss to Iowa State, Baylor has shown the signs of a team affected by the pandemic. Head coach Kim Mulkey missed time with COVID-19, as did guard DiJonai Carrington and forward Caitlin Bickle, who both did not play in the loss to Iowa State which snapped a 61-game home winning streak. Given the lack of practice time leading up to the game, Mulkey was not shocked by the result. Even less surprising was Baylor’s dominant win over Oklahoma State in response.

Nalyssa Smith has averaged a double-double with 17.1 points and 10.0 rebounds playing just under 30 minutes per game. DiDi Richards is 13th nationally with 6.1 assists per game, and Carrington is 22nd with 3.0 steals per game. They may not generate the headlines, but Baylor is simply too good to ignore, and they’re a team no one will want to face when it comes to tournament time.

US Tennis Stars Advance as Wimbledon Field Narrows

Italy's Jasmine Paolini celebrates her first-round win over Latvia's Anastasija Sevastova at the 2025 Wimbledon Championships
World No. 4 Jasmine Paolini fell in the second round of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships on Wednesday. (Daniel Kopatsch/Getty Images)

The 2025 Wimbledon Championships wrapped its second round on Thursday, with the grass court Grand Slam seeing just 15 of the tournament's 32 seeded players advance to the Friday and Saturday's third round.

A full half of the WTA's Top 10 players did not survive the week, with 2024 Wimbledon finalist and world No. 5 Jasmine Paolini joining four first-round star exits by falling to unseeded Kamilla Rakhimova in a three-set, second-round battle on Wednesday.

At the same time, unseeded fan favorites like Japan's No. 53 Naomi Osaka and England's own No. 40 Emma Raducanu secured third-round spots at the London Slam, joining top surviving contenders like No. 4 Iga Świątek and defending Wimbledon champion No. 16 Barbora Krejčíková.

Notably, a full five US players managed to move ahead, tied for the largest national contingent still standing at the tournament.

Led by 2025 Australian Open champion No. 8 Madison Keys, the US group also includes No. 10 Emma Navarro and No. 12 Amanda Anisimova, as well as unseeded players No. 54 Danielle Collins and No. 55 Hailey Baptiste.

With matches against Świątek and No. 7 Mirra Andreeva, respectively, Collins and Baptiste have a tough third round ahead — though Navarro's battle against the 2024 champ Krejčíková arguably headlines Saturday's slate.

US tennis star Emma Navarro eyes a return during a 2025 Wimbledon match.
US star Emma Navarro will face 2024 champ Barbora Krejčíková in Wimbledon's Round of 32. (Rob Newell/CameraSport via Getty Images)

How to watch Wimbledon this weekend

While world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is still holding strong in the dwindling field, this year's Wimbledon play is proving that the London Slam is anyone's to take, as the grass court humbles even the sport's top stars.

Expect the twists and turns to continue as tennis's best battle for spots in Sunday's Round of 16.

Round-of-32 Wimbledon play kicks off at 6 AM ET on Friday, with live continuous coverage of the tournament airing on ESPN.

Finland Opens Women’s Euro 2025 with Upset Upset Win Over Iceland

Finland's Katariina Kosola and Emma Koivisto celebrate a goal during their opening 2025 Euro match.
Finland earned a surprise 1-0 win over Iceland in their 2025 Euro opener on Wednesday. (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)

The 2025 European Championship is officially underway, as Euro action kicked off with a group-stage upset on Wednesday.

Though the 2025 UEFA tournament's opener was a sweltering affair amid a European heat wave, world No. 26 Finland prevailed, earning a 1-0 upset win over No. 14 Iceland in Group A.

Finnish winger Katariina Kosola played hero, curling in the winning goal in the match's 70th minute — just 12 minutes after Iceland midfielder Hildur Antonsdóttir picked up the competition's first red card.

"The result is important for our confidence," Kosola said after Finland's first major tournament win since the 2009 Euro. "It was the kind of goal I have been practicing a lot."

"It's terrible to lose and we feel frustrated," said Iceland head coach Thorsteinn Halldórsson. "It is an even group and we knew Finland were good, but our first half wasn't good enough."

Elsewhere, No. 16 Norway closed out Wednesday's slate on top of Group A, taking three points by defeating host No. 23 Switzerland in day's second match.

Led by captain and 2018 Ballon d'Or winner Ada Hegerberg — who pulled the match even with a second-half strike — Norway battled to a 2-1 comeback win, despite the Swiss side outshooting and out-possessing the Norwegians.

Spain jersey hang in lockers ahead of the team's 2025 Euro opening match against Portugal.
Reigning World Cup champions Spain will open their 2025 Euro account against Portugal. (Aitor Alcalde - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

How to watch this week's 2025 Euro action

Group B steals the 2025 Euro spotlight on Thursday.

While No. 13 Italy snagged a 1-0 opening win over No. 20 Belgium to kick off the day, 2023 World Cup champions and tournament favorite No. 2 Spain will face No. 22 Portugal at 3 PM ET.

Friday's Group C slate will pit No. 12 Denmark against No. 6 Sweden at 12 PM ET, before No. 3 Germany contends with No. 27 Poland at 3 PM ET.

Closing out the first group-stage matches will be arguably the toughest draw of the 2025 Euro pool.

Saturday's Group D slate features major tournament debutants No. 30 Wales against the No. 11 Netherlands at 12 PM ET, with No. 10 France taking on defending champions No. 5 England to cap the day at 3 PM ET.

Live coverage of 2025 Euro matches will air across Fox Sports platforms.

USWNT Caps Summer Friendlies with 3-0 Canada Shutout

Yazmeen Ryan, Michelle Cooper, Claire Hutton, Mandy McGlynn, and Izzy Rodriguez and the rest of the USWNT huddle after their July 2025 friendly win over Canada.
The USWNT finished the summer international window with 11 goals, conceding none, across three matches. (Brad Smith/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images)

The world No. 1 USWNT ruled the pitch on Wednesday night, shutting out North American rivals No. 8 Canada 3-0 to finish the international window on a high note.

Catching the Canada backline sleeping, US midfielder Sam Coffey opened the scoring at the 17-minute mark before 19-year-old Claire Hutton claimed her first-ever USWNT goal by heading in a Rose Lavelle corner kick in the game's 36th minute.

Houston Dash forward Yazmeen Ryan then padded the US tally in the waning minutes of the match, finding the back of the net just eight minutes after subbing onto the field.

Despite fielding a young roster, the US overpowered a veteran-heavy Canada side in almost every category, topping their Northern neighbors in shots, shots on target, possession, and — most notably — set pieces.

Canada ultimately couldn't match the game's mental pace or physical battle, as the USWNT scored all three goals off dead ball situations — a free kick, a corner kick, and a throw-in.

"It's not about the opponent," US head coach Emma Hayes said after the match. "It's about what we do, and I felt that was extremely dominant."

With Wednesday's contributions, the USWNT finishes the summer window with 11 goals scored across the three friendlies — and zero goals conceded.

The US now enters an extended break before reconvening for another as-yet-unannounced friendly series in October — but players will be expected to perform in the meantime.

"I said to the players in the end in the huddle, if you want to compete to win the biggest things, it's not what you do here that matters," said Hayes. "It's what you do when you go back to your club."

Seattle Storm Looks to Climb the WNBA Standings in Weekend Gauntlet

Seattle Storm star Nneka Ogwumike high-fives teammates as she's introduced before a 2025 WNBA game.
The No. 5 Seattle Storm will face No. 4 Atlanta and No. 3 New York this weekend. (Soobum Im/NBAE via Getty Images)

The 2025 WNBA regular season returns on Thursday night, with teams at the top of the league standings looking to prove their mettle against close competition across the long holiday weekend.

The No. 5 Seattle Storm have arguably the toughest weekend assignments, taking on the No. 4 Atlanta Dream on Friday before tackling the No. 3 New York Liberty on Sunday.

Four middle-of-the-pack teams will look to close in on a double-digit season win tally while the league's frontrunners strive to maintain their advantage in this weekend's slate:

  • No. 7 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 8 Indiana Fever, Thursday at 7 PM ET (Prime): Though still without star Caitlin Clark, the Fever hope to harness their 2025 WNBA Commissioner's Cup victory momentum against an Aces side tied with Indiana with an 8-8 season record.
  • No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Atlanta Dream, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): Seattle will look to make strides against a strong Atlanta side while putting last Sunday's stinging 84-57 loss to up-and-comer Golden State in their rearview.
  • No. 6 Golden State Valkyries vs. No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, Saturday at 8 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): The rising Valkyries must face a Lynx side hunting redemption, as the league-leaders look to bounce back from their stifling Tuesday Commissioner's Cup upset loss.
  • No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 3 New York Liberty, Sunday at 1 PM ET (CBS): With injured Liberty center Jonquel Jones still sidelined, the Seattle Storm will have a chance to steal a weekend game against the reigning champs, as New York struggles to re-find their footing.

With the 2025 WNBA All-Star break looming, early top performers must keep standards high if they want to hold the line when the season crosses the midway point.

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