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NCAA Tournament bracketology: Projecting all 68 teams in the field

Christyn Williams (13). (M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

There are still a few NCAA Tournament bids up for grabs this weekend, as the Big 12 and Missouri Valley open their conference tournaments Thursday and the Ivy League tournament gets underway on Friday. All three conferences have at least one at-large caliber team.

Most of the top leagues have wrapped up their postseason tournaments, however, so with the majority of at-large resumes signed and sealed, it’s time to take a look at where things stand before Selection Sunday.

Below, we project each of the 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament field and their seed lines based on a 1-68 S-curve. (Bracketing rules and geography may cause small fluctuations in these seed lines, which are based solely on best resumes.) For autobids yet to be decided, we’ve awarded them to the team most likely to win that conference tournament based on Her Hoop Stats win probabilities.

No. 1 Seeds

South Carolina, Stanford (Pac-12 autobid), NC State (ACC autobid), Louisville

Given that South Carolina beat both of the teams right behind them in this grouping, their loss to Kentucky on Sunday means nothing in terms of seeding. The Gamecocks are still the top team in every ranking or rating system and should undoubtedly be the No. 1 overall seed.

Stanford hasn’t lost to a team below them on the list since Thanksgiving weekend, and they rolled through a formidable Pac-12 without a loss. Their resume is almost as good as it was last season when they landed the top overall spot, so the only reason they aren’t in that spot this year is because of South Carolina’s absolute dominance. Like the first line, No. 2 overall is pretty much locked up.

The No. 3 overall is the last spot that’s all but set in stone before things start to get interesting. There’s a small chance NC State leapfrogs Stanford, but the committee’s most recent reveal had Stanford at No. 2 overall, and not enough has changed since then to project anything different. Any chance of the Wolfpack dropping below this line went out the window when Louisville lost to Miami in the ACC quarterfinals.

Speaking of that Miami loss, Louisville’s inclusion here looks much more precarious than it was before. The Cardinals will be rooting for someone other than Baylor to win the Big 12 tournament. One more loss for the Bears, and Louisville can feel a bit safer.

No. 2 Seeds

Baylor (Big 12 autobid), UConn (Big East autobid), LSU, Texas

Thanks to two blowout wins over Iowa State, including one on the road last week to win the Big 12 regular season, Baylor has the best resume of any team not on the top line. Theirs is the only one realistically good enough to catch Louisville, but they still might need to win their conference tournament this weekend to take that spot.

There was a time when it looked like UConn might be headed for its first No. 3 seed in over a decade. Instead, Paige Bueckers’ return has rejuvenated the team despite her limited minutes; since her first game back, UConn has looked every bit the part of a title contender and has vaulted itself back onto the No. 2 line. If the Huskies’ head-to-head matchup with Louisville back on Dec. 19 had gone their way, they’d probably have a shot at snagging the fourth No. 1.

Who thought LSU would be in this position when the season started? The Kim Mulkey Effect is real, and it’s been enough to put the Tigers in position to potentially land their first No. 2 seed since 2008. LSU is aided by the fact that at least one, and possibly both, of the two teams behind them will take another loss before Selection Sunday.

A lot of people have Texas on the No. 3 line, but owning the only true road win over a top-two team can carry weight. Add in the two blowout wins over Iowa State, who is competing for this spot as well, and Texas has a legitimate shot at a No. 2. The one thing holding the Longhorns down is a home loss to Texas Tech, so they’ll likely need a good showing in the Big 12 tournament to hang onto this spot.

No. 3 Seeds

Iowa State, Iowa (Big Ten autobid), Michigan, Indiana

While we’re on the topic of the Big 12 tournament, it’ll be important to watch Iowa State’s performance there as well. As the No. 2 seed, the Cyclones are lined up to face the No. 3 Longhorns in the semifinals if chalk holds. Their position here is really just a placeholder: That game, if it happens, will ultimately determine which of the two teams earns a No. 2 seed.

It wasn’t that long ago that Iowa was on the host bubble. Seven straight wins and Big Ten regular season and tournament championships will take you far. Iowa and Michigan split the regular season and are basically splitting hairs here, but both teams should be on this line.

Indiana has lost four of its last seven, but since all of those defeats have come to Iowa or Maryland, it shouldn’t be terribly damaging. There aren’t any bad losses on Indiana’s resume, which can’t be said of most teams below this line.

No. 4 Seeds

Tennessee, Arizona, Oklahoma, Maryland

Tennessee has come down to earth after it reached No. 5 in the AP Poll on the strength of several tight wins. Losses by some of the teams behind them have kept the Vols from sliding out of hosting range. Arizona is limping into the tournament as well, but did enough early on to stay home for the first weekend.

Maryland has more losses than anyone else in the top 16, but they are all to ranked teams (including to each of the top three) and mostly away from home. Oklahoma is the team most in danger of dropping given that they still have their conference tournament to play. A quarterfinal exit to Kansas on Friday may send them packing next weekend, but a deep run could solidify their hosting status.

No. 5 Seeds

Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, BYU, Oregon

Virginia Tech’s road loss to Liberty in December didn’t look great at the time, but the Flames’ memorable conference season helped Tech’s resume. Notre Dame has five losses to currently unranked teams, but none of them are outside of the top 60 in the NET and all happened away from home. Both teams will be pulling for Kansas to knock off Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament in the hopes they can move up and host.

BYU certainly deserves this spot, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see them fall to a No. 6 given the committee’s history of disrespecting mid-majors. Oregon is an interesting case; their placement will depend on how much the committee factors in the Ducks’ injury issues during the regular season.

No. 6 Seeds

Ohio State, North Carolina, Nebraska, Ole Miss,

Ohio State has a shiny record and a Big Ten regular season championship, but pulling them down is a non-conference schedule that featured a grand total of zero top-100 NET teams. North Carolina’s resume is a less extreme version of that.

Nebraska is a classic case of a team that does what it was supposed to do – for the most part, they’ve won games they were favored to win and lost games they were expected to lose. That lands them here. Ole Miss, two seasons removed from winning just seven games, finds itself here thanks to a remarkable turnaround led by Coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin and star center Shakira Austin.

No. 7 Seeds

Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky (SEC autobid), Kansas State

Aside from sharing a home state, Georgia and Georgia Tech are in similar spots in other ways, too. The defensive-minded squads have comparable resumes buoyed by big wins over NC State (for Georgia) and UConn (for Georgia Tech), and both are losers of five of their last eight.

Much has been said about Kentucky’s magnificent turnaround, and this team deserves that praise and more. They managed to turn a sub-.500 resume that looked dead in the water into a top-30 resume in the span of about three weeks.

Kansas State is the only team on lines No. 5 through No. 7 that hasn’t completed its resume yet. There’s a chance a loss to Texas tomorrow drops the Wildcats into an 8 vs. 9 matchup.

No. 8 Seeds

FGCU (Atlantic Sun autobid), UCF (American autobid), Utah, Florida

FGCU would have loved to climb onto the No. 7 line and avoid a No. 1 seed in the second round, but a loss to Stetson on Feb. 12 probably eliminated that opportunity. If the committee overlooks that blip for the fact that Kierstan Bell was injured, they may have an outside shot.

UCF is in the midst of perhaps its best season in school history, and no one will want to face that grind-it-out defense next week. Utah is on the opposite end of the scoring spectrum, but is also an incredible story after recording just five wins last year.

The key for Florida’s seeding will be how the committee views a team that just lost its leading scorer for the season in Kiki Smith.

No. 9 Seeds

South Florida, Arkansas, Creighton, Miami

How much recency bias will the committee apply to South Florida? The Bulls lost by just seven points to a healthy UConn squad and beat Stanford on a neutral floor in November, but they haven’t beaten a tournament team since then. A win over UCF in the AAC title game Thursday night might be enough to switch lines with them, but that shouldn’t matter when both are in the 8 vs. 9 matchup.

Arkansas has an ugly number in the loss column (13), but the Razorbacks played one of the toughest schedules in the country and were the victims of some close losses.

One of those losses was to Creighton, the second Big East team safely in the field. Miami’s story is Kentucky-like: WNIT to NCAA Tournament lock in mere days.

No. 10 Seeds

Washington State, Colorado, South Dakota (Summit autobid), Kansas

Washington State and Colorado are both on this line for now, but if Princeton or Missouri State plays well enough this weekend to catch one of them, Washington State’s head-to-head victory over the Buffs may be key.

South Dakota was probably already in, but you never know with mid-majors, so Coyotes fans breathed a sigh of relief when they punched their ticket on Tuesday. Kansas should be in as well, but it wouldn’t hurt for them to win a game at the Big 12 tournament and eliminate any doubt.

No. 11 Seeds

Princeton (Ivy autobid), Missouri State (MVC autobid), Missouri, Northwestern, Dayton

Missouri joins Washington State, Colorado and Kansas in the last four byes. Lauren Hansen’s layup to beat South Carolina is looking more and more crucial every day.

Northwestern and Dayton are part of the last four in, so both of them will be rooting hard for Missouri State and Princeton to win their conference tournaments this weekend. If either loses, the Missouri Valley or the Ivy could become two-bid leagues, knocking one or two other teams out of the field.

No. 12 Seeds

Villanova, Boston College, Gonzaga (WCC autobid), IUPUI (Horizon autobid), UMass (Atlantic 10 autobid)

Villanova and Boston College round out the last four in and can do nothing but sit back and watch the bubble action around them this weekend. IUPUI won at Iowa, UMass hung with Iowa State and each team has a Hammon Award semifinalist, so either could give a No. 5 seed fits.

Don’t sleep on the Zags, either. After two losses to BYU in the regular season, Gonzaga showed it’s ready for March with a 12-point win over the Cougars in the third meeting on Tuesday.

No. 13 Seeds

SFA (WAC autobid), Belmont (OVC autobid), MTSU (C-USA autobid), UNLV (Mountain West autobid)

Belmont became the first team to punch its ticket on Saturday, and UNLV joined them with a win in the Mountain West title game Wednesday night. MTSU has work to do as it opens C-USA tournament play Thursday afternoon.

SFA was an overtime away from a 12-5 upset last year and would prefer another No. 12 seed this year in order to get its first-round opponent on a neutral floor. A home loss to UTRGV in the regular season finale, however, put that possibility in serious jeopardy.

No. 14 Seeds

Buffalo (MAC autobid), Drexel (CAA autobid), Fairfield (MAAC autobid), UTA (Sun Belt autobid)

Buffalo didn’t earn the No. 1 seed in the MAC, but the Bulls are slight favorites in the conference tournament since Toledo has a tougher matchup in the semifinals Friday against Ball State. Should Buffalo get in, the world will get to see Dyaisha Fair, who hung 22 on South Carolina’s stout defense back in November and is currently top five in the nation in scoring at 23 points per game.

No. 15 Seeds

Jackson State (SWAC autobid), Bucknell (Patriot autobid), Maine (America East autobid), Mercer (SoCon autobid)

Navy did Bucknell a favor by knocking off the Patriot League’s No. 1 seed on a miraculous shot. Jackson State is as battle-tested as they come on the No. 15 line, and no No. 2 seed should want to game-plan for them.

No. 16 Seeds

Montana State (Big Sky autobid), UC Davis (Big West autobid), Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC autobid), Houston Baptist (Southland autobid), Norfolk State (MEAC autobid), Longwood (Big South autobid)

For the first time in NCAA women’s basketball history, two teams on the No. 16 line will get to experience tournament wins as the First Four will pit four of these six against each other next Wednesday and Thursday. Watch out for Montana State’s Darian White, a dynamic point guard who can get it done in a variety of ways.

First four out

Alabama, Florida State, South Dakota State, UCLA

Next four out

Duke, DePaul, Marquette, Rhode Island

Like the last four in, these teams are big Missouri State and Princeton fans this weekend. None of these eight have a chance to help themselves anymore, as all fell last week in their conference tournaments.

Duke’s victory over Iowa is the best win among this group, but a brutal loss to Virginia and a 7-11 record in the ACC are tough to overcome.

South Dakota State is the best team of the eight, but at-large bids are about the best resume, not the best team. The Jackrabbits have a resume worthy of the tournament when only looking at the games they’ve played since star Myah Selland came back from injury, but the committee probably won’t be able to overlook their 3-7 start to the season.

Conferences with multiple bids

SEC – 9
ACC – 8
Big Ten– 7
Big 12 – 6
Pac-12 – 6
Big East – 3
AAC – 2
A10 – 2
WCC – 2



Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Barcelona aims to end Emma Hayes UWCL dreams in semifinal

BARCELONA, SPAIN - MARCH 28: Jonatan Giraldez of FC Barcelona gestures during the UEFA Women's Champions League 2023/24 Quarter Final Leg Two match between FC Barcelona and SK Brann at Estadi Johan Cruyff on March 28, 2024 in Barcelona, Spain. (Photo by Eric Alonso - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

Barcelona is set to take on Chelsea once again in the Champions League semifinals, and coach Jonatan Giráldez has his sights set on ending Chelsea’s run. 

It’s a rematch of last year’s semifinal, only this time both coaches are coaching in their final leg of UWCL matches with their respective teams. Giráldez will depart Barcelona for the NWSL’s Washington Spirit upon the conclusion of the season, while Chelsea’s Emma Hayes is set to take over the USWNT. 

While Giráldez has won the CHampions League with Barcleona, it’s the one trophy that has eluded Hayes in her time at Chelsea. 

"Emma's legacy is in what she has done at Chelsea and the growth [at the club] over more than 10 years," Giráldez said. "She has done a magnificent job at the club. The next [manager] will have bar set very high because she has done amazing things.

"She will hope to go out with a Champions League [trophy], but we are here to try and make sure that doesn't happen and to bring it home, which is our objective."

In her time with Chelsea, Hayes has won six Women’s Super League titles and five FA Cups. Chelsea has made the UWCL final just once – in 2021, when the team lost to Barcelona. They then ended Chelsea’s hopes last year, winning 2-1 on aggregate in the semifinal before winning their second UWCL trophy in four years. 

The first leg of this year’s semifinal is set to be played at Barcelona’s Olympic Stadium, with Chelsea then playing at home in the second leg. 

"It will be a very even tie," Giráldez added. "Chelsea are a great side and the club have invested in the women's game in recent years -- and it shows. They've done well in the Champions League and are in great form, but so are we. I would have preferred to have the second leg at home, but it's not something we can control."

USWNT midfielder Korbin Albert issues apology for social media activity

Korbin Albert. (Photo by John Todd/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

USWNT midfielder Korbin Albert has apologized for past social media activity that appeared to support anti-LGBTQIA+ content and for liking an Instagram post that made light of Megan Rapinoe’s injury in her final professional game. 

The posts caused Rapinoe to call out the midfielder, who now wears Rapinoe’s No. 15, on Instagram, addressing her note to “the people who want to hide behind ‘my beliefs’” and saying that “all you believe in is hate.”

Rapinoe’s comments were then shared by USWNT teammate Becky Sauerbrunn, as well as others like Lynn Williams, Sam Mewis and Kristie Mewis. 

Among the posts reposted to Albert’s TikTok was a Christian sermon talking about how being gay and “feeling transgender” is wrong. The posts surfaced earlier this week and garnered widespread attention among fans of women’s soccer. 

Albert started in Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League game on Thursday, scoring in the 70th minute. Following the game, and hours after Rapinoe’s post, Albert posted an apology to her Instagram. 

"I want to sincerely apologize for my actions on social media," Albert wrote in a post shared on her Instagram story late Thursday. "Liking and sharing posts that are offensive, insensitive and hurtful was immature and disrespectful which was never my intent. I'm really disappointed in myself and am deeply sorry for the hurt that I have caused to my teammates, other players, fans, friends and anyone who was offended.

“I truly believe that everyone should feel safe and respected everywhere and on all playing fields. I know my actions have not lived up to that and for that I sincerely apologize. It’s an honor and a privilege to play this sport on the world stage and I promise to do better.”

U.S. Soccer has yet to address Albert’s social media activity, although she is set to join the USWNT next week in camp ahead of the SheBelieves Cup, which starts on April 6.

Megan Rapinoe confirms post was directed at Korbin Albert

(Photo by Brad Smith/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images for USSF)

Former USWNT forward Megan Rapinoe took to Instagram to implicitly call out current USWNT midfielder Korbin Albert’s past social media activity.

Albert, who now wears Rapinoe’s No. 15, came under fire this week for previous social media activity that included her appearing to support anti-LGBTQIA+ content and like an Instagram post that made light of Rapinoe’s injury in her final professional game. 

Rapinoe tore her Achilles in the NWSL championship, and Albert, via a screengrab, appeared to like a post from a meme account that read: “God taking time off performing miracles to make sure Megan Rapinoe sprains her ankle in her final ever game.”

Albert’s Instagram handle appeared to have liked the post in the screengrab, although the original appears to have been deleted as of March 28. 

On Thursday, Rapinoe posted her reaction to Albert’s activity via an Instagram story.

“To the people who want to hide behind ‘my beliefs’ I would just ask one question, are you making any time of space safer, more inclusive, more whole, any semblance of better, bringing the best out of anyone?” she wrote. “… because if you aren’t all you believe in is hate. And Kids are literally killing themselves because of this hate. Wake TF up! Yours Truly, #15.”

She signed off her note saying, “For all my trans homies enduring this horrific treatment day in and day out, I see you and hear you and I am WITH YOU.”

USWNT captain Becky Sauerbrunn reshared the post on Thursday, captioning it, “Well said.” Other former teammates and current USWNT members also shared the post, including Lynn Williams, Abby Dahlkemper, Sam Mewis and Kristie Mewis. 

When asked for comment by The Athletic, Rapinoe said the post was a response to Albert’s social media activity, but also noted that her focus is on protecting queer lives and sharing concerns over how online discussions and anti-trans sentiment can have real-world consequences.

Rapinoe isn’t the only USWNT member to have supported trans rights. Long-time captain Becky Sauerbrunn wrote an op-ed for a Missouri newspaper in support of allowing trans girls and women to play sports. In the final game of the 2022 SheBelieves Cup, held in Texas, players wore wristbands with the words “Protect Trans Kids” on the same day that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott called for state employees to report the parents of trans children to the authorities. 

Following her Champions League match with club team Paris Saint-Germain, Albert posted an apology to Instagram.

“I want to sincerely apologize for my actions on social media,” she wrote. “Liking and sharing posts that are offensive, insensitive and hurtful was immature and disrespectful which was never my intent.

“I truly believe that everyone should feel safe and respected everywhere and on all playing fields. I know my actions have not lived up to that and for that I sincerely apologize. It’s an honor and a privilege to play this sport on the world stage and I promise to do better.”

USC’s McKenzie Forbes: From Gap Year to the NCAA Tournament

As part of our 1-v-1 video series, USC’s India Otto sat down to interview her teammate McKenzie Forbes. 

Here are five things to know from our conversation with the graduate transfer from Folsom, California.

#1 Inspired by USC’s Head Coach, Lindsay Gottlieb, McKenzie wants to be a basketball coach or work in the front office in the future.

When weighing in on what makes a good coach, McKenzie said x’s and o’s are important but “Coaching is a lot of relationship managing and people managing. I think you have to be a good people person and be able to build those relationships, but also in that same breath, you can’t be afraid to have people dislike you in moments. I think that’s a big part of leadership.”

#2 McKenzie says the trajectory of her career changed when she made the decision to transfer from Cal to Harvard.

 In order to transfer, she was forced to take a gap year and spend a lot of time in the gym. “I completely transformed my body and, going into the Harvard season, felt like I was a completely different player. Going to Harvard and playing in a more mid-major conference, I had the ball in my hands a lot more than I might have if I transferred to another Power 5. It really developed other parts of my game.”

#3 How does McKenzie think USC will do in the Women’s College Basketball Tournament?

“I’m not going to give a typical interview answer. I want a Final Four. We have that potential and capability. Like why not? Why not us? I think we have all the pieces.”

#4 Her older brother, Marcus, was her biggest mentor growing up.

“He was basically my trainer from Elementary school on until he went to college.”

#5 Fun facts about Forbes:

She can juggle and she was the quarterback of her Pop Warner football team. “I was slow but I could throw it!”

Watch the full conversation on the Just Women’s Sports YouTube channel.

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