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Final Four betting guide: Odds, picks for NCAA championship weekend

Haley Jones and Stanford’s championship odds are undervalued on some sportsbooks. (Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Four teams, three matchups, two game days and one weekend. That’s what we have left of the 2021-22 college basketball season.

It’s also what we have left to bet on.

With every major regulated sportsbook finally offering women’s college basketball lines, we have several options to choose from. Let’s break down how, where and what to bet when it comes to this weekend’s Final Four.

Betting options

For an overview of the basic types of bets you can place and how to make sense of the numbers, you can check out our primer from last fall. While that was for the WNBA, the lines and odds work the same way for any basketball game at any level.

If you’re interested in some slightly more advanced options, we’ll break those down here. If you’d rather stick to the basics, or if you’re already well versed in these options, feel free to skip to the game analysis below.

Every sportsbook is a little bit different, so not all of these will be available everywhere. Books that now offer women’s college basketball lines include PointsBet, BetRivers, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM and WynnBet. Each of the following options can be found on at least one or two of those books.

Alternate lines

Every sportsbook will set the main spread at exactly or approximately equal odds on both sides, but if you’d rather bet on a different spread, some sportsbooks will allow you to do that at different odds. The less likely the bet is to win, the more it pays if it does.

Most sportsbooks have South Carolina favored over Louisville by about eight points. A bet on South Carolina -8 would be around -110 odds, but you could also bet on South Carolina -10 at longer (higher paying) odds or South Carolina -6 at shorter odds. South Carolina is less likely to win by double digits than they are to win by at least eight, so a bet on South Carolina -10 would pay even more if it wins.

These alternate lines are often available for game totals as well.

Half and quarter lines

These are also offered by some sportsbooks, and the concept is pretty simple – they work the same way as the moneylines, spreads and totals for the full game, except only for a specific quarter or half.

If you want to bet on South Carolina but are worried that their 269th-ranked free-throw shooting won’t hold up enough in the final minute for them to preserve an eight-point lead, maybe it’s worth betting on them to win the first half rather than winning or covering the spread for the whole game.

Live bets

Every major U.S. sportsbook has been offering this option as we’ve gotten deep into the tournament. Live betting is just betting in the middle of the game rather than before it starts. Because the lines are constantly changing throughout the game depending on the score and time remaining, sometimes it can be hard to place a bet before the line moves again, so this usually works best during a dead ball or a timeout.

The most value in live betting is often when there is a game situation that the sportsbooks may not be accounting for. Injuries are an unfortunate one, but factors like players fouling out or teams going on a run after a shift in strategy can also lead to good live betting opportunities.

Player props

Player prop bets are just bets on a specific stat for one player – typically something common like points, rebounds or assists. They work the same way as an over/under bet for the game: You bet on whether that player will go over or under the line in that particular category.

For example, in Monday’s Elite Eight game between Louisville and Michigan, FanDuel had the line at 18.5 for Naz Hillmon’s points scored. That means a bet on the over would have won if Hillmon had scored at least 19 points, but because she finished with 18, the under won.

Most “real” sportsbooks don’t yet offer player props on the women’s side (which is why it’s important to keep pushing for equal betting options). But PrizePicks, which brands itself as a daily fantasy site rather than a sportsbook, offers what essentially amount to player props on women’s college games. And as of the Elite Eight, FanDuel and DraftKings began offering some player props as well.

Final Four breakdown

Now that we have a sense for how and where to bet on these games, let’s take a look at where the value is.

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Destanni Henderson and South Carolina enter the Final Four as the No. 1 overall seed. (Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

South Carolina vs. Louisville

We’ve reached the point of the season where everyone remaining is a team that has been a good bet all season. These two teams have covered quite a few spreads, as have the two in the other matchup Friday, so picking against one of them is tough.

Ultimately, this one may come down to the Cardinals’ defensive game plan. It’s no secret that the way to stop South Carolina is to pack the paint – outside of Destanni Henderson, the Gamecocks don’t have outside shooting that can come close to matching their dominance inside.

Easier said than done, however. We’ve seen other teams try this and fail for various reasons. Creighton did an excellent job of swarming Boston and company, but when you’re giving up that many inches, sometimes it just doesn’t matter.

If there’s anyone who can make it work, though, it’s Louisville and Jeff Walz. Remember when they knocked off the Oregon team that had just beaten Team USA and was supposed to go 40-0, largely thanks to Walz’s uniquely brilliant defensive scheme? In that one, he had Kylee Shook, his rim protector, matched up with Oregon guard Minyon Moore, who wasn’t a 3-point threat. That allowed Shook to freely roam the paint, while Moore didn’t hurt them from the perimeter.

The personnel and the opponent are much different here, of course, but the defensive brilliance is the same. Expect Louisville’s havoc-wreaking backcourt to apply enough pressure to make it difficult for South Carolina to get the ball inside in the first place, which could neutralize the Gamecocks’ height advantage.

Louisville will have to keep them off the glass as well, but at the current line of South Carolina -8, it’s worth taking a shot on the Cardinals to do that. Every game this time of year seems to come down to the final minute, so a three-possession spread is pretty wide.

Stanford vs. UConn

The heartbreaking reality of betting this game is that it may come down to the injury to Dorka Juhász. While Juhász isn’t the star that, say, Paige Bueckers is, the impact of her absence will be substantial.

When Juhász went down Monday during UConn’s Elite Eight win over NC State, the Huskies were up 25-18 with a chance to extend the lead at the free-throw line. That was midway through the second quarter, at which point Elissa Cunane had managed just three points.

Cunane scored 15 of her 18 from that point on as the Wolfpack went on a run to get back in the game and turn it into a thriller. Without Juhász, the Huskies are left with only Aaliyah Edwards and Olivia Nelson-Ododa as true post players in the rotation. That problem is magnified by the fact that both are foul prone and, at times, have trouble staying on the court.

Edwards fouled out of that Elite Eight game, and Nelson-Ododa had to play several minutes with four fouls. We saw Cunane get a few easy buckets at the rim late in the game, when Nelson-Ododa was forced to be less aggressive defensively on the interior.

While Stanford doesn’t have a back-to-the-basket threat at Cunane’s level, they do love to score at the hoop via layups and back cuts out of their Princeton offense. If Edwards and Nelson-Ododa get into foul trouble in this one, UConn may be forced to go small and sacrifice rim protection and rebounding.

Most books opened with UConn favored by 1.5, but that has already reversed in several places. Even with a line of Stanford -1.5, the Cardinal are still a solid bet in this one.

Championship futures

There is perhaps no better illustration of the value of “line shopping” (searching on various sportsbooks for the best odds on a particular bet) than in the championship odds.

Some lines have moved since that post, but there are still plenty of discrepancies from one book to another, so it’s worth checking around to see where you can find the best odds on the team you want to bet on.

As far as value, South Carolina is the clear favorite and should have over a 50 percent chance to win it all. The +115 odds above were from Caesars, and those have moved, but FanDuel still has that line at +100. If you can find the Gamecocks at plus odds, don’t overthink it, just take it.

Stanford is the other team that seems to be undervalued in a lot of places. Several books still have Stanford with longer odds than UConn, despite the fact that most of those same books also have Stanford as slight favorites over UConn.

Don’t bet on Stanford at anything +300 or worse, but if you can find +400 or better, then hop on the defending champs.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

NWSL Commissioner Jessica Berman Says She’ll “Fight” to Keep Spirit Star Trinity Rodman

Commissioner Jessica Berman speaks to reporters during the 2025 NWSL Championship Media Day.
League commissioner Jessica Berman defended the NWSL salary cap at a pre-match 2025 Championship press conference. (Ezra Shaw/NWSL via Getty Images)

NWSL commissioner Jessica Berman is defending the league's salary cap, addressing growing concerns about player retention this week — just days before soon-to-be free agent Trinity Rodman takes the San Jose pitch for Saturday's 2025 Championship match.

"We want Trinity in the NWSL, and we will fight for her," said Berman about the Washington Spirit star, responding to a report in The Athletic claiming that competing US top-flight outfit Gainbridge Super League has offered Rodman a contract surpassing the NWSL's current salary cap limitations.

"She is representative, or a proxy, of our broader point, which is that we want top players to play here, and we believe that we are already doing that and can continue to attract those players," Berman added.

The NWSL's hard salary cap approach has come under fire amid recent high-profile departures of US talents like now-Chelsea FC teammates Naomi Girma and Alyssa Thompson, but Berman insists that the mechanism remains crucial to the league's parity.

"There are teams in other leagues that could compete in our league, but there are no leagues that could compete with our league," she explained, emphasizing the unique position the NWSL holds in the global soccer landscape.

"Compensation is not the only thing that players consider when deciding where to play," she continued. "We look at a whole host of factors, on the basis of the conversations that we have with players from our league and from players around the world."

The NWSL also confirmed Berman's multi-year contract extension this week, with executive committee chair Carolyn Tisch Blodgett saying in a statement that "[Berman's] vision for sustainable growth, along with her ability to fuel enduring momentum, has positioned the league for long-term success."

Gotham FC Faces Washington Spirit in 2025 NWSL Championship Heavyweight Battle

Washington Spirit forward Trinity Rodman and Gotham FC defender Emily Sonnett chase the ball during a 2025 NWSL match.
Both the Washington Spirit and Gotham FC will battle for a second NWSL Championship title on Saturday. (Dustin Satloff/NWSL via Getty Images)

The soccer season's biggest showdown has finally arrived, as the No. 2 Washington Spirit and No. 8 Gotham FC take the pitch for Saturday's 2025 NWSL Championship match in San Jose.

Both teams enter the final steeped in postseason experience, with the Spirit winning their first title in 2021 before falling just short of a second in 2024, while Gotham lifted their first trophy in 2023.

"It feels like another NWSL game — we have competitive people on both sides," Gotham forward Midge Purce told JWS this week. "And it's fun. Stakes are high."

Despite entering as the postseason's No. 8 seed, Gotham insists they're far from underdogs, while the Spirit also view Saturday's matchup as a heavyweight bout.

"Both teams, we have different players but a similar idea — we all want to be protagonists," said Washington manager Adrián González. "Both teams want to win the ball as quick as possible. We love pressing high. I think it's going to be a good game for the fans."

"It's two teams that are very good tactically, two teams that are going to study how to counterpart each other," agreed Gotham head coach Juan Carlos Amorós. "Then it's going to be those moments of brilliance — it could be set pieces — certain moments where players take responsibility."

How to watch the 2025 NWSL Championship

The 2025 NWSL season comes down to Saturday's final between No. 8 Gotham FC and the No. 2 Washington Spirit.

This year's championship match kicks off from San Jose at 8 PM ET, with live coverage airing on CBS.

Gotham Rallies Behind Rose Lavelle as She Chases Her 1st NWSL Championship Win

Rose Lavelle #16 of NJ/NY Gotham FC looks on before the NWSL match between NJ/NY Gotham FC and Kansas City Current at Sports Illustrated Stadium on June 07, 2025 in Harrison, New Jersey.
Gotham midfielder Rose Lavelle is hunting her first-ever NWSL Championship against the Washington Spirit tonight. (Dustin Satloff/NWSL via Getty Images)

Gotham FC's Emily Sonnett would like everyone to know that her longtime teammate and close friend Rose Lavelle is a very good defender.

"Cannot forget that," she told Just Women's Sports at Thursday's NWSL Championship Media Day. "Gotta write about that."

A World Cup champion and Olympic gold medalist with the US women's national team, the respect that Lavelle almost instantly garners from the opposition creates significant space for her Gotham teammates. And since joining the team in 2024, she's taken well to the club's high-pressing, quick-transition style. 

"She takes up a lot of attention," said Sonnett. "The way that she leads silently on the field, like a ghost — you don't know when she's going to get [the ball] and do something brave, and then, bam, she's there."

NJ/NY Gotham FC midfielder Rose Lavelle (16) plays the ball defended by Washington Spirit midfielder Hal Hershfelt (17) in the second half at Red Bull Arena.
Gotham midfielder Rose Lavelle showcases power on both sides of the ball. (Lucas Boland/USA TODAY Sports)

Gotham teammates spotlight Lavelle’s two-way brilliance

Lavelle has been a constant during Gotham’s unlikely championship run, both a locker room leader and a Fellow Gotham and USWNT star Midge Purce would also like everyone to know about Lavelle's prowess on both sides of the ball.

"It's hard to describe when you play with someone who's that good, it's just special," she said. "She can do special things on and off the ball — something she doesn't get a ton of credit for."

She's such a force, in fact, that Purce wasn't aware of the one achievement that's eluded Lavelle throughout her illustrious career — winning an NWSL title.

"Rosie, I didn't realize!" Purce exclaimed upon learning she's never won a league championship — despite being on the Gotham squad that took down Lavelle's Seattle (née OL) Reign in the 2023 NWSL Final. "She deserves the world."

Rose Lavelle #16 of the OL Reign celebrates after scoring a goal during the second half against the Portland Thorns at Providence Park on April 02, 2022 in Portland, Oregon.
Rose Lavelle played for Seattle from 2021 to 2023 before joining Gotham FC. (Soobum Im/Getty Images)

From Breakers to Gotham: Rose Lavelle's winding NWSL journey

Lavelle needs little introduction to a soccer audience. A perennial winner on the international stage and a midfield maestro with the ball at her feet, the 30-year-old is a fixture of the global women's game. But her NWSL career has been a bit more nuanced. 

A Wisconsin standout with serious USWNT interest right out of college, Lavelle signed her first professional contract with the now-defunct Boston Breakers in 2018, entering a league almost unrecognizable to today's thriving NWSL ecosystem.

Boston folded the following year, sending Lavelle to Washington during a dark competitive period for the Spirit. She was later somewhat unceremoniously traded to Seattle in 2021, while playing overseas with the WSL's Manchester City. That Reign team went on to fall to none other than Gotham FC in the 2023 NWSL Championship — with Lavelle scoring Seattle's only goal.

In 2024, Lavelle got to make her own choices. She jumped ship, signing with the NY/NJ club that so silenced Seattle the previous season as part of a flashy free agency class.

Rose Lavelle #16 of United States injuried during a match between United States and Czech Republic as part of SheBelieves Cup 2022 at Dignity Health Sports Park on February 17, 2022 in Carson, California.
Rose Lavelle has struggled with injuries throughout her NWSL and USWNT career. (Omar Vega/Getty Images)

How Lavelle battled injury and reclaimed her NWSL influence

Regardless of tonight's outcome, Lavelle's greatest triumph this season might simply be taking the pitch for a full 90 minutes. The 30-year-old has struggled with injuries throughout her professional career, but bouncing back from offseason ankle surgery was especially taxing. Her prolonged recovery impacted her ability to make a difference on the field, as she watched Gotham's form waver early in 2025.

"It was a pretty big surgery," Lavelle said, acknowledging that she's had to adjust her role within the team to maintain a presence off the pitch.

So she found ways to stay involved. She shared opinions in team meetings, staying connected with teammates in order to forge a seamless transition once she could handle more significant playing time. 

"She supported me for the first half of the season, when she wasn't even on the field," said rookie midfielder Sarah Schupansky. "And she didn't only support me, she supported the whole team."

Lavelle admitted that even now she doesn't feel 100%. But she also has a veteran's perspective on the bigger picture. "I still have to give myself the grace of acknowledging that it's going to be an up and down journey," she said.

"Being able to play with Rose, obviously, with the national team, has been incredible," Sonnett remarked. "But seeing the way that she's been able to train in NWSL, seeing that grit — I know she's battled through injury. [But] being able to see her train, I learn a lot from her."

Emily Sonnet #6, Jaedyn Shaw #2 and Rose Lavelle #16 of NJ/NY Gotham FC celebrate the clinch to playoffs after the NWSL match between NJ/NY Gotham FC and Racing Louisville at Sports Illustrated Stadium on October 19, 2025 in Harrison, New Jersey.
Rose Lavelle will hunt her first-ever league title with Gotham at tonight's NWSL Championship. (Ira L. Black/NWSL via Getty Images)

Chasing the one women's soccer trophy that’s eluded her

Having won all there is to win at the international level, Lavelle's legacy doesn't ride on a single title. But her teammates would love to help check off that particular box on behalf of their locker room leader.

"I adore playing with her, and I adore her off the field," said Purce. "I definitely want to see her lift that trophy — she's going to be just fantastic."

As for Lavelle herself, the game is the fun part. And raising a trophy at the end of 90 minutes is just a benefit of the greater goal.

"This is what you play for," said Lavelle.

"This season is so long and hard. But then you get to these moments and this is the fun part, win or go home. We're all just fighting for each other, amped up, playing every single day."

How England Star Esme Morgan Found Her Fire — and Family — with the Washington Spirit

Esme Morgan #24 of Washington Spirit inspects the pitch prior to the NWSL match between NC Courage and Washington Spirit at First Horizon Stadium on October 11, 2025 in Cary, North Carolina.
Washington Spirit and England defender Esme Morgan is shooting for the 'perfect year.' (Jared Tilton/NWSL via Getty Images)

Star England defender Esme Morgan made an impression on her new Washington Spirit teammates even before she set foot on US soil — just by the sound of her voice.

"Looking at Es on social media before she came, I just thought her voice was so angelic," Spirit goalkeeper Aubrey Kingsbury told Just Women's Sports at NWSL Championship Media Day in San Jose. "Even the first weeks, I couldn't even focus on what she was saying — I'm like, 'I am in the presence of the Queen.'"

If the former Manchester City defender wasn't already the NWSL team's quintessential English international, she cemented her prowess after winning a European Championship with the Lionesses earlier this summer. Since joining the Spirit in 2024, the center back has become a player to watch on both sides of the Atlantic, after making a bet on herself by transferring to the notoriously fast-paced NWSL in search of greater responsibility on the pitch.

A die-hard NFL fan with a bubbly personality and loyal TikTok following, Morgan immediately took to life in the US. Her proper British accent belies a fierce competitor on the field. She's a force in the locker room, fusing social connections that greatly contributed to the Spirit reaching a second straight NWSL final. And she's also good for more than a little bit of banter.

"Es is just super entertaining, she's really good at getting under my skin," added Kingsbury with a laugh. "She brings… a lot of sunshine to the locker room, and obviously is just a fun person to play with." 

But it's not all puppies and rainbows. Ceding last year's championship to the Orlando Pride still stings for Morgan. And she's turned that pain into intensity — one that's fueled her and her teammates all the way back to the precipice of NWSL glory.

Esme Morgan #24 and Narumi Miura #5 of Washington Spirit speaks to the media during the 2025 NWSL Championship media day at San Jose Civic on November 20, 2025 in San Jose, California.
Esme Morgan has made a major impact on the Washington Spirit both on and off the pitch. (Ezra Shaw/NWSL via Getty Images)

How Esme Morgan energized Washington Spirit’s team culture

Washington's camaraderie is palpable, something midfielder Hal Hershfelt credits in part to Morgan's readiness to spend time with her teammates off the pitch, no matter the occasion.

"Honestly, she came to the team and we did a lot more team events and stuff like that," she said. "She's so extroverted, willing to get people together, get people grooving."

Morgan recalls a time early in the 2025 preseason, after Spirit captain Andi Sullivan announced she was pregnant with her first child ("the whole team had gone crazy," she remembered). A group of players had ridden their bikes to get ice cream, including recent signing Narumi Miura, who had only been in market for a few days.

"We were all just chatting about [Sullivan], and Rumi goes, 'I love this team!'" Morgan said. "She'd been here four days. We were like, 'Oh my gosh, Rumi, we love you too!' I think that speaks to the environment that we have."

The team's comfort with one another is also evident on the pitch, whether it's Morgan and midfielder Croix Bethune hitting Cam Ward's football celly in front of Audi Field's sold-out home crowd, or the trust permeating the defense as they confront ongoing injuries. 

"We definitely hold each other to high standards," said Kingsbury. "We all really want to win, and we all really want to do well for each other."

Esme Morgan #24 of Washington Spirit celebrates a Washington Spirit goal during a game between the Washington Spirit and Angel City FC at Audi Field on May 2, 2025.
England international Esme Morgan transferred to the Washington Spirit from Manchester City in June 2024. (Roger Wimmer/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

Esme Morgan bets on the NWSL to elevate her England career

Morgan arrived in the US on a mission.

She was named to England's World Cup squad in 2023, but spent the tournament on the bench, watching on as an unused substitute as the Lionesses finished second to Spain.

So when she got the opportunity to transfer to the NWSL the following year, proving her national team worth was front of mind. 

"She wanted to take a step forward, knowing that this league would challenge her," said Washington manager Adrián González. "I think she's done an amazing job, especially adapting herself to the type of games we have here."

The defender favors the NWSL's summer schedule, as it allows her to stay in shape for major international tournaments. And as she told JWS earlier this year, the US league's speedy, possession-oriented style has made her a better overall player. Morgan had always been good with the ball at her feet, but her time in Washington has significantly improved her off-ball positioning and ability to go toe-to-toe with the world's best attackers.

Her desire to improve only grew stronger after the Spirit fell short of last year's NWSL title. "That was something that at the time provided a huge fire inside me," she said. "I worked super hard in the off-season, doing things on the pitch that I knew would complement the areas of the game that I wanted to improve."

2025 Euros players Jess Carter, Esme Morgan and Grace Clinton of England sing their national anthem prior to the UEFA Women's Nations League 2024/25 Grp A3 MD5 match.
Washington Spirit defender Esme Morgan (C) represented England at the 2025 Euros. (Harriet Lander - The FA/The FA via Getty Images)

From Euros glory to NWSL grind: Esme Morgan returns to form

The work is paying off. She played a key role as a reserve center back in the Lionesses's successful UEFA Women's Euro defense this summer, replacing Gotham defender — and 2025 NWSL Championship opponent — Jess Carter in England's hard-fought semifinal victory over Italy. She went on to lift the trophy with her national team teammates, after avenging their World Cup loss against Spain in the European Championship final. 

Winning a major international title accomplished a childhood dream, but Morgan had to quickly re-orient herself after rejoining the Spirit in DC.

"Immediately after the Euros was when I felt the most tired. It was just like a come-down after that high," she reflected. "But I've since rallied and [felt] fresh and ready coming into the last couple of games."

Washington Spirit forward Trinity Rodman and defender Esme Morgan hug goal-scorer Gift Monday during a 2025 NWSL match.
The Washington Spirit ride into the 2025 NWSL Championship with an unmatched sense of togetherness. (Roger Wimmer/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

How team love fuels the Washington Spirit's NWSL Championship quest

Heading into tonight's NWSL Championship, Morgan's focus on winning hasn't changed. But the source of her desire has shifted some, a full year after last year's disappointing exit. Washington faced adversity due to injury this season, in many ways mirroring their 2024 arc. But they've also continued to prioritize joy — on and off the pitch.

"We've overcome lots of challenges as a group, but stuck together throughout," Morgan said. "Now my passion and desire to win this weekend comes not from me losing out last year. It comes from the love I have for this group and the desire to win with these girls."

Another thing driving her? A victory tonight would put Morgan in rare company, completing her 2025 trophy case with both an international and league.

"I had the best time in the summer, achieved a lifelong goal. And ever since I've come to the Spirit, I've wanted to win the championship," she said. "It would be the perfect year, really."