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NCAA Sweet 16 preview: trends, upsets and matchups

Arizona women's basketball.
@ArizonaWBB

When people talk about the current state of basketball, they love to talk about the rise of the three-pointer. Teams are learning to jack up three ball after three ball after three ball, whether or not it’s a good shot. A decent three is inherently more valuable than an easy two. Right?

Well, here we are at the Sweet 16 with, presumably, the 16 best college basketball teams in the country. The most interesting thing? Only one team (Stanford) scores 34.1% or more of their points from three-point range, putting them in the top 50 in the country. Only two teams rank within the top 100 — Stanford and Iowa. The nation’s leading scoring team, Maryland, only gets 27.1% of its points from three-point range, 188th in the nation.

The message is clear: An open two-pointer is still better than a contested three. It doesn’t matter if you play fast or slow, if you have two dominant bigs or five speedy guards. The NCAA’s top teams are all doing the same thing. They’re taking high percentage looks rather than shooting threes for the sake of it.

Knowing the three ball might not prove to be a difference maker, these are the three most interesting matchups of the weekend. 

Most likely upset: No. 2 Louisville vs No. 6 Oregon

During the first two games of the NCAA tournament, Oregon is playing some of its best basketball of the season. And Louisville is playing some of its worst. 

The Cardinals have posted an offensive rating below 100 in five of their last seven games. That wasn’t the case for most of the season. In 17 of their previous 21 games, they posted an offensive rating above 100. During this bumpy stretch, Louisville’s star guard, Dana Evans, has averaged just 14.8 points per game while shooting 32.7% from the field.

The Ducks and their suffocating zone defense won’t help much with Louisville’s offensive woes. And the Ducks’ success is directly tied to their defense. In all but one of their 15 wins, opposing teams have shot below 40% from the field. In all but one of their 8 losses, teams have shot above 40%. If Oregon can continue funneling offensive players into 6-foot-5 Nyara Sabally and 6-foot-7 Sedona Prince, they could walk away with another upset.

Most underrated game: No. 2 Maryland vs No. 6 Texas

Of the eight Sweet 16 matchups, Maryland has the second highest chance of winning at 86.6% according to Her Hoop Stats. But don’t write off Texas just yet. Led by forward Charli Collier, a Big 12 All-Defensive selection, and guard Celeste Taylor, who averages 2.2 steals per game, the Longhorns have quietly emerged as one of the country’s strongest defensive teams. In the last 11 games, they have allowed more than 70 points just once. 

But Maryland is a different beast. They put up 91.3 points per game, shoot 40.6% from three, and feature six (six!) players who average double figures. Here’s the thing: Texas has played Baylor — the country’s third ranked scoring offense — three times this season. The Longhorns lost all three of those games, but they held Baylor to 60, 64, and 66 points in each of those outings — three of Baylor’s lowest scoring outings all season. It’s clear that Texas can shut down the NCAA’s best offenses, but it’s unclear if they can score enough in return. 

The difference is, Maryland can’t play defense like Baylor. Could Texas slow down Maryland enough to eke out a win? It’s certainly a possibility. And if Texas can’t stop Maryland, at least you’ll get to watch the Terrapins go for 100 points — for the eighth time this season.

Best head-to-head matchup: Jordan Nixon (No. 2 Texas A&M) vs Aari McDonald (No. 3 Arizona)

Yes, I know, Caitlin Clark versus Paige Bueckers is the most exciting first round matchup. But that’s too easy. I’ll take a different route how about Texas A&M guard Jordan Nixon vs. Arizona guard Aari McDonald? 

Nixon has been arguably the hottest player in the tournament thus far, averaging 23 points per game while shooting 57.8% from the field. McDonald, who was named Pac 12 Player of the Year and Co-Defensive Player of the Year, is arguably the best defender in the country. And McDonald’s playing some solid basketball of her own. Just look at the fourth quarter of Arizona’s last game.

With five minutes left in the Round of 32, the Wildcats trailed BYU by five points. That is, until McDonald willed them to victory. She scored seven points in those final minutes, hitting a mean step back, blazing by her defender for a lay-up, and then sealing the game with a steal. 

“It might’ve been the best five minutes by a UA basketball player, any gender, any game, since Miles Simon at the 1997 Final Four,” wrote Greg Hasen of the Arizona Daily Star.

It’s almost a cliche at this point, but it’s true: In March, you need clutch guards. This matchup has two of them.

USC’s Aaliyah Gayles Opens Up About Her Journey Back to Basketball

USC Basketball - Aaliyah Gayles

As part of our 1-v-1 video series, USC’s India Otto sat down to interview her teammate Aaliyah Gayles. Here are five things to know from our conversation with the redshirt freshman guard from Las Vegas.

#1 Aaliyah suffered from a near-death act of violence in 2022.

The incident taught her a lot about herself and the support around her. “[USC] Coach Lindsay [Gottlieb] was one of the first people to fly out there and come see me. That means a lot to me off the court.” 

#2 Her favorite USC memory is when she surprised her teammates after getting out of the hospital.

She left her walker at the door to show she was on the road to returning to the court. “That was my favorite memory because it was family. It was my first time being able to walk to you guys and see you practice.”

#3 There's a reason she wears #3.

#3 was her grandpa’s favorite number and a golden number in her life. Plus, AG3 has a nice ring to it. 

#4 She has a list of basketball GOAT’s:

Candace Parker, Magic Johnson, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, and Cason Wallace.

#5 There have been many celebrity appearances at USC’s games over the years, especially this season.

Aaliyah’s favorites include Will Ferrell, Kehlani, and Saweetie. And she hopes Lil Durk will come to watch a game soon.

Watch the full conversation on the Just Women’s Sports YouTube channel.

Gotham, USWNT forward Midge Purce out with ACL tear

(Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

Midge Purce announced on Wednesday that she has torn her ACL. 

The Gotham FC and USWNT forward went down with the injury on Sunday during Gotham’s 1-0 win after tweaking it earlier in the game. Gotham coach Juan Carlos Amorós did not have any immediate updates following the match, with further evaluation revealing the tear. 

“It’s a reality I’m still struggling with and has left me with not too much to say,” Purce wrote in a statement on social media. “I’m heartbroken to no longer be available for my season with Gotham FC or for Olympic selection with the USWNT – know I’m rooting for you both all year long. 

“Though you may not see it, I’ll be doing everything I can to get back on the field.”

Purce is just the latest women's soccer star to tear her ACL, and joins USWNT teammate Mia Fishel in having torn her ACL in the last couple of months. Other notable players include Catarina Macario and Christen Press, with Macario only just returning to the USWNT lineup after tearing hers in 2022. 

International stars such as Alexia Putellas, Beth Mead, Vivianne Miedema and Leah Williamson have also suffered ACL tears. 

Purce’s injury caused Amorós to call out the international schedule, which has been a growing point of concern as more players fall victim to injuries and the playing schedule becomes more packed. Kansas City’s Debinha suffered a hamstring injury in the team’s opening game, while both Lynn Williams and Rose Lavelle have yet to play for Gotham due to injuries picked up during the W Gold Cup. 

“We lost Midge during the game which for me is a bittersweet flavor,” Amorós told reporters after Sunday’s game. “By the way, it’s another player that came from the Gold Cup. Last week, it was Debinha. We are paying the consequences of a tournament that shouldn’t have happened.”

“We’re talking about protecting the players, [who shouldn’t] go to play an international competition after one week of preseason,” Amorós continued. “We’ve seen the consequences now. We’ve got Rose, Lynn, last week it was Debinha in Kansas [City] and now we have Midge. From my experience, the clubs are going to keep paying for that competition."

In her statement, Purce said that “so many friends, teammates and even players I’ve only ever competed against” reached out to offer support. 

“I am so blessed,” she wrote. “Your messages have meant so much to me throughout this process, you have consoled what, for a moment, felt inconsolable. Thank you for reminding me that our football world is not only full with incredibly talent but also, incredible kindness.”

Lauren Jackson included on Australia Olympics roster

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 01: Lauren Jackson of Australia celebrates with team mates after playing her final Opals game during the 2022 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 3rd place match between Canada and Australia at Sydney Superdome, on October 01, 2022, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

Lauren Jackson has come out of retirement once again to compete for a spot on Australia’s Olympic roster. 

Jackson was included on the 26-player roster named by coach Sandy Brondello on Tuesday that will take part in training camps, tours and games in the lead-up to the Paris Olympics. The roster will eventually be whittled down to just 12 players selected from the 26 named on Tuesday.

Jackson helped Australia qualify for the Olympics with a win over Germany in February. After that, she announced her retirement, revealing that she struggled to spend so much time away from her two young children. 

The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper reported that Jackson and the basketball federation had come to an agreement in which they would help cover costs for her children to travel with the team for training camps and the Olympics. 

She’s largely expected to make the Opals’ Olympic roster. 

"It's always an exciting time to announce an Olympic squad and I congratulate all the athletes," Opals coach Sandy Brondello said. "They all know what it means to play for Australia and they all want the opportunity to represent their country at an Olympics. Our squad is full of exceptional talent and they will make the decision to pick a final 12 very difficult."

At the 2022 FIBA World Cup, Jackson helped Australia win a bronze medal with 30 points against Canada. She had previously retired in 2016 due to knee injuries, but slowly made a return in a domestic Australian league the last few years.

Jackson has won four Olympic medals, including three consecutive silver medals starting with Sydney in 2000 when she was a teenager. 

First two rounds of NCAA tournament boast record attendance, viewership

(David K Purdy/Getty Images)

The first two rounds of the women’s NCAA tournament broke attendance and viewership records set just last year – and it wasn’t even close. 

The NCAA announced on Tuesday that attendance for the first two rounds of the tournament was more than 292,000 – up from last year’s record, when almost 232,000 fans attended the first two rounds.

Among the host sites, Iowa had the biggest crowds with nearly 29,000 fans packing Carver-Hawkeye Arena in the first and second rounds. 

"We expected the historic success and quality of play and high level of competition from the regular season would carry through into March Madness. Our championship is again delivering," NCAA vice president of women's basketball Lynn Holzman said in a statement. "Record crowds, ratings, incredible performances and evolving storylines will continue to make the next two weeks a must-see for fans across the world."

And for those that couldn’t attend the sold-out Iowa games, they watched on television. Monday’s matchup between Iowa and West Virginia drew 4.9 million viewers, setting a record for a women’s D-I tournament game prior to the Final Four. 

It is also the third most watched tournament game in the last 20 years, behind last year’s national championship between LSU and Iowa (9.92 million) and Iowa’s Final Four win over South Carolina (5.6 million).

Iowa’s game against Holy Cross in the first round drew 3.23 million viewers. 

But it wasn’t just Iowa drawing big viewership. ESPN’s five games on Monday averaged 2.25 million viewers. UConn and Syracuse drew 2.05 million viewers while LSU and Middle Tennessee on ABC drew 2.01 million viewers on Sunday. 

The full, 16-game slate for the second round averaged 1.4 million viewers – a 121% increase from last year and the highest average ever for the second round.

The full tournament so far is averaging 812,000 viewers per game, a 108% increase from last year.

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