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NCAA Tournament bracket: Sleeper candidates, title game paths and more

No. 1 seed NC State drew a challenging path with UConn also in the Bridgeport region. (Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The NCAA Tournament brackets are out, the matchups are set and March Madness is officially upon us! We’re just days away from the most exciting weekend on the sports calendar, and the First Four will kick things off even sooner this year. Beginning on Wednesday night, 68 teams will battle it out for one trophy.

With so many games and so much on the line, there are countless storylines to follow. Here are some of my biggest takeaways from this year’s bracket.

The First Four is an excellent addition

As part of the NCAA’s ongoing effort to address gender inequities between the men’s and women’s tournaments, they added four more teams to the women’s field this year to match the men’s side.

We can talk about whether some of the measures — both enacted and proposed — will bring about true equity, but the First Four should have an immediate positive impact.

Consider this: Incarnate Word, who hasn’t even been in Division I for a full decade and has yet to finish .500 or better in a Division I season, will for two hours on Wednesday night have the attention of the entire women’s basketball world as it plays on national TV. The Cardinals never even won an NCAA Tournament game in Division II (they only made it once), but in facing fellow No. 16 seed Howard rather than a No. 1 seed, they have a realistic chance at a tournament win.

That’s the kind of moment that can change the trajectory of a program. From the recruiting boost it will undoubtedly provide, to the revenue it will bring in, the impact of playing in that single game goes far beyond what happens on the court.

The same can be said of the other No. 16 seeds in the First Four, and even the First Four at-large teams to a certain extent. That, without question, is a boon to the sport.

Mid-major disrespect is alive and well

It’s nothing new to see the committee slot teams from outside the traditional power conferences into seed lines that are much too low, but it’s still a conversation we should have every year until they stop doing it.

Some of the best mid-major programs in the country got misplaced again this season. No. 6 BYU, No. 11 Princeton and No. 12 FGCU were each seeded worse than our projections and Charlie Creme’s bracketology, and all deserved to be at least one spot higher.

When the committee makes the decision to under-seed a mid-major, it doesn’t just hurt that team. It also hurts the team slotted across from it, which is usually a power conference team. In this case, No. 6 Kentucky and No. 5 Virginia Tech are forced to face ranked teams in the first round, and No. 3 Michigan will likely have to get past a 26-3 BYU squad to get to the Sweet 16.

When teams beat up on lesser opponents, they continue to get penalized for the lack of strength of their schedule. That shouldn’t be the case if all a team does is blow out everyone it plays. What more could they be expected to do?

High seeds aren’t safe in the Bridgeport region

While we’re on the topic of under-seeded mid-majors, it’s worth pointing out that as frustrating as it can be to see these schools not get the placement they deserve, it also gives us juicy upset potential. Look no further than the Bridgeport region for some prime examples.

Her Hoop Stats gives No. 12 UMass a 47.7 percent chance to knock off No. 5 Notre Dame, and it actually favors Princeton over Kentucky in the 11 vs. 6 matchup. While the model may slightly overrate those upset chances, those matchups should be much closer than the seeds suggest.

Then there’s No. 13 IUPUI vs. No. 4 Oklahoma. IUPUI, led by a must-see player in Macee Williams, took Michigan to overtime and knocked off Iowa. Both of those games were on the road, and both of those opponents are stronger than Oklahoma is. The Jaguars will have no fear going into the Sooners’ building, making this first-round matchup one to watch.

The danger for the high seeds in this region doesn’t just lie in the first round, either. No. 1 seed NC State will have to play a pseudo-road game in the Elite Eight if chalk holds. They are matched up with No. 2 seed UConn in the Huskies’ home state, and it doesn’t help that UConn is finally healthy and clicking. Don’t blame the committee — this was a geography problem — but the top-seeded Wolfpack will have their work cut out for them if they want to end UConn’s streak of 13 straight Final Four appearances.

Tune into Utah vs. Arkansas

When it comes to entertainment value, I don’t really care whether a basketball game is high scoring or low scoring, fast paced or slow. I just want good basketball and a close game. Impressive defense gives us a 47-45 game? Fine with me!

Most fans, of course, would not agree. The Debbie Antonelli school of “shooting ‘till your arm falls off” generally makes for appealing basketball (and for what it’s worth, as long as it’s a close game, I can get into that style, too).

If that’s your speed, don’t miss the 7 vs. 10 matchup in the Spokane region. Arkansas’ offense ranks 35th in points per possession, but they are outside of the top 150 in points per possession allowed on defense. And if you think that’s a big disparity, try Utah’s on for size: eighth on offense and 271st on defense.

Add in the fact that both teams rank in the top 25 in 3s attempted per game, with over 25 each, and this one should be a launch fest. Circle it on your schedule if you enjoy points.

Potential rematches to watch for

There are always going to be potential rematches if you go deep enough into the bracket, but there are two in particular that stand out to me before we reach the Elite Eight.

The first is Indiana vs. Kentucky. If both teams avoid upsets, they’ll meet in the second round in a rematch of one of the biggest games of the season’s first week. The Hoosiers handed their border rival a 21-point drubbing on Nov. 14, but that was before Rhyne Howard went supernova and teammates like Dre’Una Edwards and Jazmine Massengill started stepping up. Indiana hasn’t faced the Kentucky team of the last few weeks — the one that took down South Carolina to win the SEC tournament.

The other will take place in the Sweet 16 if both teams make it. No. 2 seed Baylor and No. 3 seed Michigan find themselves paired up once again after two overtime games in the last year. The first was just under a year ago when Baylor edged out the Wolverines in the Sweet Sixteen, and Michigan exacted its revenge on Dec. 19.

If you don’t have a dog in the fight, you can only hope that we get a rubber match and that it lives up to the previous two thrillers.

South Carolina’s path sets up well

This isn’t exactly noteworthy — the Gamecocks were going to be the favorites no matter how the matchups came out. But the committee did reward their dominance, whether intentionally or not, by providing them with a favorable path to the title.

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South Carolina's Aliyah Boston (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Assumptions in March are probably never a good idea, but if we assume anyway that South Carolina makes it out of the first weekend, the chalk bracket would have them draw No. 4 seed Arizona in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats are backing into the tournament on the heels of four losses in their last seven and might struggle to get to 40 against the Gamecocks’ defense.

If chalk holds, South Carolina would have an Elite Eight date with No. 2 seed Iowa, who our bracketology and Charlie Creme’s each had as a No. 3 seed. (And how about the top two National Player of the Year candidates in Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark potentially playing on the same court?)

Finally, South Carolina is on the opposite side of the bracket from arguably the next three best teams: Stanford, NC State and UConn. Dawn Staley’s squad certainly didn’t need any help, but they got some.

Stars on double-digit seeds can fill it up

If you’re here, you’re surely familiar with Caitlin Clark, Iowa’s superstar sophomore who leads the nation in scoring at 27.4 points per game. Are you familiar, however, with the next four on the scoring list?

They’re all in this tournament, and they all play for a double-digit seed.

There’s No. 11 Villanova’s Maddy Siegrist, who checks in at second with 25.9 points per game. Behind her is Jasmine Dickey, the Delaware dynamo who dropped a 50-piece in February. Fourth is Kierstan Bell, although she doesn’t qualify officially based on the NCAA’s minimum games played requirement. Her FGCU Eagles play one of the most fun styles of basketball in the country. Rounding out the top five is Dyaisha Fair, whose explosiveness makes No. 13 Buffalo a scary draw for No. 4 Tennessee.

This is the beauty of the NCAA Tournament. Clark has played on ESPN, of course, but as for players like Dickey or Fair? The world deserves a chance to see them hoop, and March Madness gives us that chance.

Illinois State’s journey is an incredible story

I have to end this on a personal note. There’s never a shortage of inspiring stories this time of year, but it’s not every year you get one in your own backyard. As someone who’s been covering Illinois State locally, I couldn’t wrap this up without sharing their story.

It started five years ago when Illinois State took a chance on Kristen Gillespie, who had never been a Division I head coach. They were coming off of three straight seasons with single-digit wins, including a 2-28 campaign in 2014-15.

Through character and culture, Gillespie has spent the last five seasons turning the program around and instilling belief in her players. There’s likely no better example of that belief than the team’s performance this season: The Redbirds endured a 3-7 start and a four-game losing streak in February to rebound and become the Missouri Valley Conference champions two weeks later.

If that wasn’t enough to add credence to their underdog story, they did it on the strength of two stars – DeAnna Wilson and JuJu Redmond – who began their careers at junior colleges.

The national headlines will be about the No. 1 seeds, the Final Four contenders and the trendy upset picks. But stories like Illinois State – that’s what March is all about.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Valkyries Coach Natalie Nakase Tells ‘The Late Sub’ How to Build a WNBA Team

Valkyries head coach Natalie Nakase chats to Golden State's expansion draft party crowd.
Golden State head coach Natalie Nakase is helping build the Valkyries roster from scratch. (Santiago Mejia/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)

On today's episode of The Late Sub, host Claire Watkins wades through a few big women’s sports headlines before sitting down with Golden State Valkyries head coach Natalie Nakase.

Watkins chats with Nakase about leading a brand-new WNBA franchise, including building a roster from scratch and the front office team's goals and tactics in navigating Golden State's expansion draft.

Finally, Nakase discusses how she’d like her team to play, plus the fundamentals that she thinks will create a lasting locker room culture of winning as the Valkyries embark on their inaugural 2025 season.

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes in women’s sports. This is the weekly rundown you’ve been missing, covering the USWNT, NWSL, WNBA, college hoops, and whatever else is popping off in women’s sports each week. Special guest appearances with the biggest names in women’s sports make The Late Sub a must-listen for every fan. Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women’s Sports newsletter for more.

Subscribe to The Late Sub to never miss an episode.

Notre Dame Comes Up Big With Third Straight Win Over UConn

Notre Dame's Hannah Hidalgo celebrates a three-pointer.
Hannah Hidalgo scored a near-triple-double in Notre Dame's win over UConn. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Behind a huge performance from sophomore Hannah Hidalgo, No. 8 Notre Dame handed No. 2 UConn their season’s first loss, defeating their third Top-5 team 79-68 on Thursday.

Even with injuries limiting Notre Dame’s depth, it was all gas, no brakes for the Irish, who spent nearly all of the game’s 40 minutes in the lead.

The Irish defense held the Huskies to an abysmal 18.8% three-point shooting rate, with UConn making just three out of 16 attempts from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Notre Dame did the opposite, sinking 55% of their 18 three-point attempts.

UConn superstar Paige Bueckers led the Huskies with 25 points in a game where guard Azzi Fudd, who’s nursing a minor knee injury, was sorely missed. While freshman forward Sarah Strong added 14 points despite getting into early foul trouble, UConn’s roster simply couldn’t put together enough clutch plays to overcome the Irish.

“Going forward, we need more contributions from more people [other than Bueckers],” assessed UConn head coach Geno Auriemma following the loss. “If you're playing at Connecticut, you have to be the kind of kid who can make an impact in a game like this."

Notre Dame has now taken three games in a row from UConn, something the Irish haven’t done since 2012-13. 

"This is a major win for us," Notre Dame head coach Niele Ivey said after the game. "Obviously, it's just one win, but I'm really grateful for this group and really proud of our effort and the way that we showed up today with such toughness and discipline."

Red-hot Hidalgo fuels Notre Dame win

Star guard Hidalgo played menace to the visiting Huskies on Thursday, putting together a near-triple-double with 29 points, 20 rebounds, and eight assists, plus draining a career-high six three-pointers. In total, the preseason All-American played a role in 48 of Notre Dame’s 79 points.

"Hidalgo is the head of the snake," UConn’s Bueckers said about her opponent. "She does a lot of great things offensively, defensively. She's a pest. I think the best thing that she does is her energy and her attitude and the way she leads that team with that and the fire that she brings."

Forward Liatu King added a 16-point, 12-rebound double-double of her own to the Irish’s total, with guard Olivia Miles also sinking 16 points.

The backcourt duo of Miles and Hidalgo continues to lift Notre Dame into this season’s top echelon, with Auriemma, the winningest NCAA basketball coach in history, commenting "I don't know if there's a better combination of guards than those two with how many different things they can hurt you with."

"Those guys are attacking you for the entire 40 minutes. And I don't know that I've seen anybody up close yet that can do that."

Ultimately, the Irish look as formidable as ever. Despite an uncharacteristic two-loss skid, Notre Dame boasts wins over then-No. 3 USC, then-No. 4 Texas, and now No. 2 UConn, becoming just the third team with a trio of Top-5 wins before January in 25 years.

"I'm hoping that the lesson [is], when we play with heart, we play with discipline, we play focused, we can be just as elite as everybody else in the country," remarked Ivey.

UNC's Indya Nivar drives to the basket during a game.
No. 14 UNC will battle an undefeated No. 25 Georgia Tech on Sunday. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

How to watch Sunday’s Top-25 NCAA basketball

Though both UConn and Notre Dame will face decidedly overmatched opponents in Georgetown and Eastern Michigan, respectively, there are two Top-25 tilts on deck.

First on Sunday, WNBA star Caitlin Clark’s alma mater, No. 21 Iowa, will visit an undefeated No. 17 Michigan State side off to their best start in program history. The Big Ten foes will tip off at 12 PM ET, with live coverage on BTN.

Then at 2 PM ET, undefeated No. 25 Georgia Tech will take on one-loss No. 14 UNC, airing on ACCN.

In between lies an intriguing bout between No. 22 NC State and Louisville, two teams who have suffered a slew of losses to ranked squads. The Wolfpack, who fell to No. 3 South Carolina, No. 4 LSU, and No. 12 TCU, will be hungry to keep their Top-25 spot. On the other hand, Louisville, who registered losses to No. 1 UCLA, No. 2 UConn, No. 10 Oklahoma, and No. 16 Kentucky, will be eager to bounce back into the AP poll after being ousted on Monday.

NC State’s battle with Louisville will air live at 1 PM ET on ABC.

Sweet 16 Takes the Court in NCAA Volleyball Regionals

Mimi Colyer spikes the ball in Oregon's NCAA volleyball second-round win over TCU.
Oregon will battle overall No. 1 seed Pitt in the NCAA volleyball Regionals. (Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard/USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images)

Just 16 teams remain in the 2024 NCAA volleyball tournament after last week's opening rounds, setting the stage for this weekend's four Regional showdowns.

Hosted by the No. 1 seeds (Pitt, Nebraska, Penn State, and Louisville), each four-team mini-tournament will send one squad to next Thursday's national semifinals in Louisville.

Louisville's Anna DeBeer spikes the ball against ACC rival and fellow NCAA volleyball No. 1 seed Pitt.
Pitt and Louisville host two of the NCAA volleyball Regionals. (Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal & USA Today Network/Imagn Images)

Regional action kicks off in the ACC

The Pitt and Louisville Regionals will start the Sweet Sixteen action on Thursday, when the Panthers host No. 7 Missouri, No. 3 Kentucky, and No. 4 Oregon. Louisville helms the evening party, which includes No. 2 Stanford, No. 4 Purdue, and No. 6 Florida.

With Pittsburgh already in full swing, the Wildcats added a third defeat of Missouri to their 2024 tally on Thursday, ousting the Tigers 3-1 and extending their win streak to 14 matches in the process.

About to take the court are two of the nation's best blocking teams, with the overall No. 1 seed Panthers aiming for a repeat of their season-opening sweep of the Ducks.

Thursday night's action starts when Stanford, whose nine NCAA titles dwarf all other Division I programs, takes on a tough Florida side who upset No. 3 Kansas in a gritty five-set thriller last Saturday.

Finally, while no team is immune to upsets at this level, Thursday's closer between Purdue and Louisville is especially vulnerable after the Cardinals barely survived Northern Iowa on Saturday.

Penn State's Maggie Mendelson celebrates a kill during an NCAA volleyball match.
Friday's NCAA volleyball Regional action starts on Penn State's home court. (Dan Rainville/USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images)

The Big Ten begins hosting on Friday

Big Ten courts will serve as the stage for Friday's Regional semifinals, with Penn State hosting No. 2 Creighton, No. 3 Texas, and No. 5 Marquette before Nebraska welcomes No. 2 Wisconsin, No. 5 Dayton, and No. 6 Texas A&M to Cornhusker country.

Friday's opener pits two offensive powerhouses who've swept their way through the NCAA bracket against each other. The Bluejays, who are riding a 24-match win streak, will try to harness that momentum to end the back-to-back defending champs Longhorns' hopes of a three-peat.

Soon after, the Nittany Lions will again defend home court — a feat they've accomplished in every 2024 home match — in Friday's second tilt against the Golden Eagles.

Like Penn State, fellow Big Ten behemoth Wisconsin is likely to emerge victorious from their Regional semifinal, a rematch of the Badgers's September sweep of Texas A&M.

Capping the weekend's first matches is a battle of experience against this year's Cinderella squad. In their 40th Sweet Sixteen appearance, Nebraska's superstar-stacked roster will take on Regional debutants Dayton, who outlasted No. 4 Baylor in five gritty sets to earn the trip. The Flyers boast the fifth-best defense in the country, and they'll need every ounce of it to snap the Huskers' 43-match home win streak.

How to watch the 2024 NCAA volleyball Regionals

Thursday's action is in full swing, and No. 2 Creighton vs. No. 3 Texas will jumpstart Friday's slate at 1 PM ET before Saturday and Sunday each feature a pair of Regional finals.

The full schedule will stream live on ESPN+, with ESPN2 also airing all matches through Saturday.

Sunday's games received a broadcast bump, with the Nebraska Regional final airing at 3 PM ET on ABC and the Penn State-hosted finale taking the 8:30 PM ET slot on ESPN.

FIFA Drops 2027 World Cup Dates

Brazil is announced as the 2027 World Cup host at the 74th FIFA Congress.
Brazil will host the first-ever Women's World Cup in South America in 2027. (LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA/AFP via Getty Images)

The 2027 Women's World Cup has officially claimed its calendar spot, with FIFA announcing Tuesday that the tournament's Brazil-hosted 10th edition — the first-ever in South America — will run from June 24th through July 25th.

"The FIFA Women’s World Cup Brazil 2027 is already taking shape and we can’t wait for the opening match," said FIFA president Gianni Infantino.

Looking to break 2023's record-setting attendance and viewership numbers, Infantino also noted, "This historic tournament will have a massive impact not only in South America, but around the whole world, taking the women's game to the next level in terms of participation and popularity."

Prepping for the 2027 World Cup qualifiers

The international soccer governing body also allocated the competition's 32 available spots, with CONMEBOL's Brazil earning automatic entry as one of the three slots granted to the continental confederation.

UEFA leads the pool with 11 teams, followed by AFC with six, CAF and Concacaf with four each, and OFC's one.

The final three squads will be determined by a 10-team, two-round play-in tournament taking place in late 2026 and February 2027.

The USWNT celebrates a penalty goal  during the 2023 World Cup.
The No. 1 USWNT will look to avenge their worst-ever 2023 World Cup showing in 2027. (Carmen Mandato/USSF/Getty Images for USSF)

The road to Brazil kicks off in 2025

With details including host cities and venues still to come, the road to the 2027 World Cup is ramping up with qualifying matches looming just around the corner.

Next year's UEFA Nations League play will determine the 11 European teams bound for Brazil, including 2023 world champions Spain. Meanwhile, the path to a fifth star for the world No. 1 USWNT crest begins with Concacaf W Qualifiers in late 2025.

Similarly, 2025 qualifying matches for the 2026 AFC Asian Cup and 2026 Africa Cup of Nations kicks off World Cup entrances for teams in those federations. CONMEBOL will look to the 2025 Copa América tournament to determine the remaining two entrants that will compete alongside host Brazil, while OFC is likely to set their World Cup qualifying matches for next year.

Brazil legend Marta stands with her teammates before a 2023 World Cup match.
2027 will be Brazil's first World Cup without all-time tournament goalscorer Marta since 1999. (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

Superstar exits pave the way for new World Cup stars

Both expected and surprise entrants will book their 2027 World Cup spots over the next two years, but the Brazil tournament's sidelines are already set to feature fresh faces after a flood of soccer greats called game in 2024.

The host nation will compete in their first World Cup since 1999 without legendary attacker Marta, whose 17 goals lead the tournament's all-time scoring list.

Canada is suffering the same fate with 2027 marking the first edition in 28 years without leading international goalscorer Christine Sinclair.

Two-time trophy-winners Germany — the only team other than the US with more than one world title — recently bid adieu to star Alexandra Popp, who retired as a four-time World Cup competitor.

As for the USWNT, they'll look to follow their 2024 Olympic gold medal with a 2027 World Cup title, but without star striker Alex Morgan, defender Kelley O'Hara, or goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher, who followed 2023 retirees Megan Rapinoe and Julie Ertz out the door this year.

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