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NCAA Tournament bracket: Sleeper candidates, title game paths and more

No. 1 seed NC State drew a challenging path with UConn also in the Bridgeport region. (Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The NCAA Tournament brackets are out, the matchups are set and March Madness is officially upon us! We’re just days away from the most exciting weekend on the sports calendar, and the First Four will kick things off even sooner this year. Beginning on Wednesday night, 68 teams will battle it out for one trophy.

With so many games and so much on the line, there are countless storylines to follow. Here are some of my biggest takeaways from this year’s bracket.

The First Four is an excellent addition

As part of the NCAA’s ongoing effort to address gender inequities between the men’s and women’s tournaments, they added four more teams to the women’s field this year to match the men’s side.

We can talk about whether some of the measures — both enacted and proposed — will bring about true equity, but the First Four should have an immediate positive impact.

Consider this: Incarnate Word, who hasn’t even been in Division I for a full decade and has yet to finish .500 or better in a Division I season, will for two hours on Wednesday night have the attention of the entire women’s basketball world as it plays on national TV. The Cardinals never even won an NCAA Tournament game in Division II (they only made it once), but in facing fellow No. 16 seed Howard rather than a No. 1 seed, they have a realistic chance at a tournament win.

That’s the kind of moment that can change the trajectory of a program. From the recruiting boost it will undoubtedly provide, to the revenue it will bring in, the impact of playing in that single game goes far beyond what happens on the court.

The same can be said of the other No. 16 seeds in the First Four, and even the First Four at-large teams to a certain extent. That, without question, is a boon to the sport.

Mid-major disrespect is alive and well

It’s nothing new to see the committee slot teams from outside the traditional power conferences into seed lines that are much too low, but it’s still a conversation we should have every year until they stop doing it.

Some of the best mid-major programs in the country got misplaced again this season. No. 6 BYU, No. 11 Princeton and No. 12 FGCU were each seeded worse than our projections and Charlie Creme’s bracketology, and all deserved to be at least one spot higher.

When the committee makes the decision to under-seed a mid-major, it doesn’t just hurt that team. It also hurts the team slotted across from it, which is usually a power conference team. In this case, No. 6 Kentucky and No. 5 Virginia Tech are forced to face ranked teams in the first round, and No. 3 Michigan will likely have to get past a 26-3 BYU squad to get to the Sweet 16.

When teams beat up on lesser opponents, they continue to get penalized for the lack of strength of their schedule. That shouldn’t be the case if all a team does is blow out everyone it plays. What more could they be expected to do?

High seeds aren’t safe in the Bridgeport region

While we’re on the topic of under-seeded mid-majors, it’s worth pointing out that as frustrating as it can be to see these schools not get the placement they deserve, it also gives us juicy upset potential. Look no further than the Bridgeport region for some prime examples.

Her Hoop Stats gives No. 12 UMass a 47.7 percent chance to knock off No. 5 Notre Dame, and it actually favors Princeton over Kentucky in the 11 vs. 6 matchup. While the model may slightly overrate those upset chances, those matchups should be much closer than the seeds suggest.

Then there’s No. 13 IUPUI vs. No. 4 Oklahoma. IUPUI, led by a must-see player in Macee Williams, took Michigan to overtime and knocked off Iowa. Both of those games were on the road, and both of those opponents are stronger than Oklahoma is. The Jaguars will have no fear going into the Sooners’ building, making this first-round matchup one to watch.

The danger for the high seeds in this region doesn’t just lie in the first round, either. No. 1 seed NC State will have to play a pseudo-road game in the Elite Eight if chalk holds. They are matched up with No. 2 seed UConn in the Huskies’ home state, and it doesn’t help that UConn is finally healthy and clicking. Don’t blame the committee — this was a geography problem — but the top-seeded Wolfpack will have their work cut out for them if they want to end UConn’s streak of 13 straight Final Four appearances.

Tune into Utah vs. Arkansas

When it comes to entertainment value, I don’t really care whether a basketball game is high scoring or low scoring, fast paced or slow. I just want good basketball and a close game. Impressive defense gives us a 47-45 game? Fine with me!

Most fans, of course, would not agree. The Debbie Antonelli school of “shooting ‘till your arm falls off” generally makes for appealing basketball (and for what it’s worth, as long as it’s a close game, I can get into that style, too).

If that’s your speed, don’t miss the 7 vs. 10 matchup in the Spokane region. Arkansas’ offense ranks 35th in points per possession, but they are outside of the top 150 in points per possession allowed on defense. And if you think that’s a big disparity, try Utah’s on for size: eighth on offense and 271st on defense.

Add in the fact that both teams rank in the top 25 in 3s attempted per game, with over 25 each, and this one should be a launch fest. Circle it on your schedule if you enjoy points.

Potential rematches to watch for

There are always going to be potential rematches if you go deep enough into the bracket, but there are two in particular that stand out to me before we reach the Elite Eight.

The first is Indiana vs. Kentucky. If both teams avoid upsets, they’ll meet in the second round in a rematch of one of the biggest games of the season’s first week. The Hoosiers handed their border rival a 21-point drubbing on Nov. 14, but that was before Rhyne Howard went supernova and teammates like Dre’Una Edwards and Jazmine Massengill started stepping up. Indiana hasn’t faced the Kentucky team of the last few weeks — the one that took down South Carolina to win the SEC tournament.

The other will take place in the Sweet 16 if both teams make it. No. 2 seed Baylor and No. 3 seed Michigan find themselves paired up once again after two overtime games in the last year. The first was just under a year ago when Baylor edged out the Wolverines in the Sweet Sixteen, and Michigan exacted its revenge on Dec. 19.

If you don’t have a dog in the fight, you can only hope that we get a rubber match and that it lives up to the previous two thrillers.

South Carolina’s path sets up well

This isn’t exactly noteworthy — the Gamecocks were going to be the favorites no matter how the matchups came out. But the committee did reward their dominance, whether intentionally or not, by providing them with a favorable path to the title.

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South Carolina's Aliyah Boston (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Assumptions in March are probably never a good idea, but if we assume anyway that South Carolina makes it out of the first weekend, the chalk bracket would have them draw No. 4 seed Arizona in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats are backing into the tournament on the heels of four losses in their last seven and might struggle to get to 40 against the Gamecocks’ defense.

If chalk holds, South Carolina would have an Elite Eight date with No. 2 seed Iowa, who our bracketology and Charlie Creme’s each had as a No. 3 seed. (And how about the top two National Player of the Year candidates in Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark potentially playing on the same court?)

Finally, South Carolina is on the opposite side of the bracket from arguably the next three best teams: Stanford, NC State and UConn. Dawn Staley’s squad certainly didn’t need any help, but they got some.

Stars on double-digit seeds can fill it up

If you’re here, you’re surely familiar with Caitlin Clark, Iowa’s superstar sophomore who leads the nation in scoring at 27.4 points per game. Are you familiar, however, with the next four on the scoring list?

They’re all in this tournament, and they all play for a double-digit seed.

There’s No. 11 Villanova’s Maddy Siegrist, who checks in at second with 25.9 points per game. Behind her is Jasmine Dickey, the Delaware dynamo who dropped a 50-piece in February. Fourth is Kierstan Bell, although she doesn’t qualify officially based on the NCAA’s minimum games played requirement. Her FGCU Eagles play one of the most fun styles of basketball in the country. Rounding out the top five is Dyaisha Fair, whose explosiveness makes No. 13 Buffalo a scary draw for No. 4 Tennessee.

This is the beauty of the NCAA Tournament. Clark has played on ESPN, of course, but as for players like Dickey or Fair? The world deserves a chance to see them hoop, and March Madness gives us that chance.

Illinois State’s journey is an incredible story

I have to end this on a personal note. There’s never a shortage of inspiring stories this time of year, but it’s not every year you get one in your own backyard. As someone who’s been covering Illinois State locally, I couldn’t wrap this up without sharing their story.

It started five years ago when Illinois State took a chance on Kristen Gillespie, who had never been a Division I head coach. They were coming off of three straight seasons with single-digit wins, including a 2-28 campaign in 2014-15.

Through character and culture, Gillespie has spent the last five seasons turning the program around and instilling belief in her players. There’s likely no better example of that belief than the team’s performance this season: The Redbirds endured a 3-7 start and a four-game losing streak in February to rebound and become the Missouri Valley Conference champions two weeks later.

If that wasn’t enough to add credence to their underdog story, they did it on the strength of two stars – DeAnna Wilson and JuJu Redmond – who began their careers at junior colleges.

The national headlines will be about the No. 1 seeds, the Final Four contenders and the trendy upset picks. But stories like Illinois State – that’s what March is all about.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Olympic Swimmer Kirsty Coventry Makes IOC History as First Woman President

New IOC president-elect Kirsty Coventry addresses the media after winning Thursday's election.
Kirsty Coventry is the first woman, first African, and youngest-ever IOC president-elect. (FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

Zimbabwean swimming legend Kirsty Coventry made history on Thursday, when she became both the first woman and first African ever elected president of the International Olympic Committee (IOC).

At 41-years-old, Coventry will also be the youngest president in the organization's 131-year history and the 10th individual to ever hold the office.

"As an nine-year-old girl, I never thought I would be standing up here one day getting to give back to this incredible movement of ours," the five-time Olympian said in her remarks.

An extensive Olympic resume, in and out of the pool

The Auburn University grad and seven-time Olympic medal-winner — including back-to-back golds in the 200-meter backstroke at the 2004 Athens and 2008 Beijing Games — retired from competition after the 2016 Rio Olympics.

At that time, Coventry was already three years into her IOC membership, after initially joining as part of the governing body's Athletes' Commission. She joined the Executive Committee in 2023.

"I will make all of you very, very proud and hopefully extremely confident in the decision you have taken," Coventry said to her fellow members in her acceptance speech. "Now we have got some work together."

That work that awaits Coventry in her eight-year mandate will include navigating the 2028 LA Games and selecting a host for the 2036 Summer Games.

Her first Olympic Games at the helm, however, will be the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy, giving her less than a year to prepare before the Opening Ceremony kicks off.

IOC trailblazer Anita DeFrantz congratulates the organization's newly elected president Kirsty Coventry.
DeFrantz, the first-ever woman to run for IOC president, secured Coventry's election. (FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

Coventry to continue IOC efforts to promote gender equity

Coventry will have a few months to adjust before assuming her new office on June 23rd, when she will succeed her mentor, 71-year-old Thomas Bach.

Bach will have served the IOC's maximum 12-year tenure in the role when he steps down, having led the governing body to stage the first-ever Olympic Games with equal numbers of women and men competing — a mark captured at the 2024 Summer Games in Paris.

With gender equity as a driving force in his leadership, Bach also increased the number women serving as both IOC members and in the organization's leadership roles, with women comprising seven of the body's 15-person executive board.

Coventry is one of those seven women, and Bach specifically hand-picked her as his successor.

The legacy she inherits isn't lost on Coventry, both in the efforts of Bach and in the women who paved the way — perhaps none more directly than IOC member Anita DeFrantz, a 1976 Olympic bronze medal-winning rower for Team USA and the only other woman to ever run for IOC president.

Recognizing the election's historic significance, 72-year-old DeFrantz overcame significant health issues to travel to Greece in order to vote for Coventry — with her ballot securing the exact number of votes Coventry needed to win.

"I was really proud that I could make her proud," an emotional Coventry said.

Women’s March Madness Teams Receive First-Ever NCAA Tournament Payday

William & Mary celebrate their 2025 First Four March Madness win over High Point.
Women's March Madness teams will earn compensation for the first time in NCAA history this year. (Scott Wachter/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

The NCAA is leveling the playing field, with Women’s March Madness teams in line to receive their first-ever prize payouts based on tournament performance — a mechanism the men’s tournament has enjoyed since 1991.

Sparked by 2021's landmark NCAA gender equity review, the NCAA will distribute a total of approximately $15 million to individual conferences based on how many games their teams play, with each March Madness performance "unit" worth about $113,000.

This year's inaugural $15 million purse represents 26% of the competition's $65 million media rights valuation — putting it proportionally on par with the percentage allocated to the men's fund.

That overall prize pool will jump to $20 million in 2026 and $25 million in 2027, before switching to a successive 2.9% increase per year.

"We are all playing in the same March Madness," said UNC Greensboro head coach Trina Patterson, whose No. 16-seed Spartans will face No. 1-seed USC in the first round on Saturday. "The treatment for the men and women should be equal. We get a unit!"

Forward Perri Page celebrates a play during Columbia's 2025 First Four March Madness win over Washington.
Players like Page flew charter to compete in March Madness. (Anthony Sorbellini/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

March Madness teams get additional NCAA tournament perks

While the performance payouts are new this year, women's March Madness teams also receive perks like charter flights throughout the tournament, which can make all the difference for smaller programs eyeing an upset.

"Everyone is so excited about the experience. Going from the bus directly to the plane, everyone was so happy," March Madness debutante William & Mary head coach Erin Dickerson Davis told ESPN ahead of her No. 16-seed team’s First Four victory on Thursday.

Columbia junior Perri Page, whose No. 11-seed Lions defeated Washington in their own First Four matchup on Thursday, echoed Davis' sentiment, saying, "It was cool going to the charter, and we've been taking it all in."

"We've been enjoying the whole season," the forward added, noting "It's great we can make money for the school now."

"It should have always been that way. Women's basketball has been fighting for equality for a very long time," said Davis. "I've been in this business for many, many years. I played college basketball. It's a long time coming."

"You got to start somewhere, and I think we've been so far behind," added Columbia head coach Megan Griffith.

"This is more like the whipped cream. I think the cherry on top is going to keep coming — but it's really good so far."

WNBA Drops 2025 TV Broadcast Schedule, Increases National Coverage

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark celebrates a play with teammate Kelsey Mitchell during a 2024 WNBA game.
The Fever will see 41 of their 44 games air nationally in 2025. (G Fiume/Getty Images)

Less than two months before the season tips off on May 16th, the WNBA dropped its full 2025 national broadcast slate on Thursday, rewarding last year’s most in-demand teams with a significant uptick in screen time.

Fueled by the fan fervor around 2024 Rookie of the Year Caitlin Clark, the Indiana Fever will see a league-record 41 of their 44 regular-season games aired nationally this season.

That tally includes all five Fever matchups against regional rival Chicago, after the pair's June 23rd game averaged 2.3 million viewers — becoming the most-watched game of the 2024 regular season.

Just behind Indiana in earning significant national broadcast coverage are two-time WNBA champs Las Vegas, who will see 33 of their games aired across the country. As for the reigning champions New York Liberty, they trail the Aces by just one game, with 32 of their 2025 season games garnering national attention.

Record WNBA ratings spur big broadcast moves

Thanks to 2024’s monster ratings, big-name networks are increasingly recognizing the WNBA as a profitable summer product, with broadcasters expanding their coverage as the league prepares for its 11-year, $2.2 billion media rights contract to kick in next year.

With the 2025 WNBA season expanding from 40 to 44 games per team, ION is leading all broadcasters with 50 regular-season games, with ABC/ESPN, CBS Sports, NBA TV, and Amazon Prime all taking a piece of the pro women's basketball league's pie.

Broadcasters are also moving games off of their sports-specific networks and onto flagship cable channels, with a record 13 matchups — a full half of Disney Networks' 26 regular-season games — set to air on ABC, including the 2025 WNBA All-Star Game.

The league will also see its first-ever regular-season games earn primetime broadcast TV slots, with CBS Sports elevating two of its 20 games — the June 7th and August 9th battles between the Chicago Sky and the Indiana Fever — to its flagship network, CBS.

As the WNBA shoots for an even more impactful 2025 season, broadcasters are helping to boost the charge, offering increased access to the league’s brightest stars and biggest games.

March Madness Underdogs Look to Bust Brackets as NCAA Tournament Tips Off

Iowa's Lucy Olsen and Kylie Feuerbach celebrate during a 2025 Big Ten tournament game.
No. 6-seed Iowa has an underdog’s shot at upsetting No. 3-seed Oklahoma in the second round. (Michael Hickey/Getty Image)

The NCAA tournament tips off in earnest with the bracket's 64-team first round on Friday, as eager March Madness fans look beyond the chalk to eye the competition's underdogs after a rollercoaster 2024/25 basketball season.

Early upsets aren’t exactly the norm in the women’s tournament. Only one lower seed won their first-round matchup in 2024, and no team below a No. 3 seed has ever gone the distance, but in a season of increased parity, a few lower-rated squads are rounding into underdog form.

Harvard star Harmoni Turner dribbles during a 2023 game.
Harvard star Harmoni Turner could lead the Crimson to a first-round upset win. (Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Breaking down potential March Madness bracket-busters

For potential March Madness upset instigators, late-season momentum late season momentum is the name of the game — a dangerous factor in any single-elimination tournament.

Even without superstar grad Caitlin Clark, No. 6-seed Iowa capped their regular season on a high before narrowly losing to No. 4-seed Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament's quarterfinals. Should they advance past No. 11-seed Murray State in their first-round Saturday matchup, the Hawkeyes are poised to give No. 3-seed Oklahoma a run for their money in the second round on Monday.

Entering as a No. 10-seed, Ivy League tournament champs Harvard will have their hands full against No. 7-seed Michigan State on Saturday, but Crimson senior Harmoni Turner and her season-average 22.5 points per game could tilt the scales in Harvard's favor.

After edging out first-round opponent No. 11-seed Iowa State, No. 6-seed Michigan is playing like an upset contender. Now a potential second-round matchup against No. 3-seed Notre Dame — fresh off a recent losing skid — awaits the young squad. 

With the brackets locked and the teams loaded, the prospects of twists and turns make the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament especially exciting — even if this year’s frontrunners appear destined for Tampa.

Michigan basketball's Syla Swords listens in a team huddle.
No. 6 Michigan will battle fellow Madness underdog No. 11 Iowa State in the tournament's Friday opener. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

How to watch Women's March Madness games this weekend

The Big Dance officially begins at 11:30 AM ET on Friday, when No. 11 Iowa State tips off against No. 6 Michigan on ESPN2.

Saturday's slate will complete the 2024/25 NCAA tournament's first round, with No. 6 Iowa beginning their Madness run against No. 11 Murray State at 12 PM ET on ESPN.

No. 10 Harvard will start dancing a few hours later, with the Crimson facing No. 7 Michigan State at 4:30 PM ET on ESPNews.

All games in the 2025 March Madness tournament will have live coverage across ESPN networks.

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