There are still a few NCAA Tournament bids up for grabs this weekend, as the Big 12 and Missouri Valley open their conference tournaments Thursday and the Ivy League tournament gets underway on Friday. All three conferences have at least one at-large caliber team.

Most of the top leagues have wrapped up their postseason tournaments, however, so with the majority of at-large resumes signed and sealed, it’s time to take a look at where things stand before Selection Sunday.

Below, we project each of the 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament field and their seed lines based on a 1-68 S-curve. (Bracketing rules and geography may cause small fluctuations in these seed lines, which are based solely on best resumes.) For autobids yet to be decided, we’ve awarded them to the team most likely to win that conference tournament based on Her Hoop Stats win probabilities.

No. 1 Seeds

South Carolina, Stanford (Pac-12 autobid), NC State (ACC autobid), Louisville

Given that South Carolina beat both of the teams right behind them in this grouping, their loss to Kentucky on Sunday means nothing in terms of seeding. The Gamecocks are still the top team in every ranking or rating system and should undoubtedly be the No. 1 overall seed.

Stanford hasn’t lost to a team below them on the list since Thanksgiving weekend, and they rolled through a formidable Pac-12 without a loss. Their resume is almost as good as it was last season when they landed the top overall spot, so the only reason they aren’t in that spot this year is because of South Carolina’s absolute dominance. Like the first line, No. 2 overall is pretty much locked up.

SHE'S HOT 🔥🔥🔥

📺 » https://t.co/HSpUI0ruff#GoStanford pic.twitter.com/4FuS0wWimf

— Stanford Women’s Basketball (@StanfordWBB) March 6, 2022

The No. 3 overall is the last spot that’s all but set in stone before things start to get interesting. There’s a small chance NC State leapfrogs Stanford, but the committee’s most recent reveal had Stanford at No. 2 overall, and not enough has changed since then to project anything different. Any chance of the Wolfpack dropping below this line went out the window when Louisville lost to Miami in the ACC quarterfinals.

Speaking of that Miami loss, Louisville’s inclusion here looks much more precarious than it was before. The Cardinals will be rooting for someone other than Baylor to win the Big 12 tournament. One more loss for the Bears, and Louisville can feel a bit safer.

No. 2 Seeds

Baylor (Big 12 autobid), UConn (Big East autobid), LSU, Texas

Thanks to two blowout wins over Iowa State, including one on the road last week to win the Big 12 regular season, Baylor has the best resume of any team not on the top line. Theirs is the only one realistically good enough to catch Louisville, but they still might need to win their conference tournament this weekend to take that spot.

There was a time when it looked like UConn might be headed for its first No. 3 seed in over a decade. Instead, Paige Bueckers’ return has rejuvenated the team despite her limited minutes; since her first game back, UConn has looked every bit the part of a title contender and has vaulted itself back onto the No. 2 line. If the Huskies’ head-to-head matchup with Louisville back on Dec. 19 had gone their way, they’d probably have a shot at snagging the fourth No. 1.

Who thought LSU would be in this position when the season started? The Kim Mulkey Effect is real, and it’s been enough to put the Tigers in position to potentially land their first No. 2 seed since 2008. LSU is aided by the fact that at least one, and possibly both, of the two teams behind them will take another loss before Selection Sunday.

The Kim Mulkey Effect#GeauxTigers pic.twitter.com/w2PzDdOJVX

— LSU Women's Basketball (@LSUwbkb) March 4, 2022

A lot of people have Texas on the No. 3 line, but owning the only true road win over a top-two team can carry weight. Add in the two blowout wins over Iowa State, who is competing for this spot as well, and Texas has a legitimate shot at a No. 2. The one thing holding the Longhorns down is a home loss to Texas Tech, so they’ll likely need a good showing in the Big 12 tournament to hang onto this spot.

No. 3 Seeds

Iowa State, Iowa (Big Ten autobid), Michigan, Indiana

While we’re on the topic of the Big 12 tournament, it’ll be important to watch Iowa State’s performance there as well. As the No. 2 seed, the Cyclones are lined up to face the No. 3 Longhorns in the semifinals if chalk holds. Their position here is really just a placeholder: That game, if it happens, will ultimately determine which of the two teams earns a No. 2 seed.

It wasn’t that long ago that Iowa was on the host bubble. Seven straight wins and Big Ten regular season and tournament championships will take you far. Iowa and Michigan split the regular season and are basically splitting hairs here, but both teams should be on this line.

Indiana has lost four of its last seven, but since all of those defeats have come to Iowa or Maryland, it shouldn’t be terribly damaging. There aren’t any bad losses on Indiana’s resume, which can’t be said of most teams below this line.

No. 4 Seeds

Tennessee, Arizona, Oklahoma, Maryland

Tennessee has come down to earth after it reached No. 5 in the AP Poll on the strength of several tight wins. Losses by some of the teams behind them have kept the Vols from sliding out of hosting range. Arizona is limping into the tournament as well, but did enough early on to stay home for the first weekend.

Maryland has more losses than anyone else in the top 16, but they are all to ranked teams (including to each of the top three) and mostly away from home. Oklahoma is the team most in danger of dropping given that they still have their conference tournament to play. A quarterfinal exit to Kansas on Friday may send them packing next weekend, but a deep run could solidify their hosting status.

No. 5 Seeds

Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, BYU, Oregon

Virginia Tech’s road loss to Liberty in December didn’t look great at the time, but the Flames’ memorable conference season helped Tech’s resume. Notre Dame has five losses to currently unranked teams, but none of them are outside of the top 60 in the NET and all happened away from home. Both teams will be pulling for Kansas to knock off Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament in the hopes they can move up and host.

BYU certainly deserves this spot, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see them fall to a No. 6 given the committee’s history of disrespecting mid-majors. Oregon is an interesting case; their placement will depend on how much the committee factors in the Ducks’ injury issues during the regular season.

No. 6 Seeds

Ohio State, North Carolina, Nebraska, Ole Miss,

Ohio State has a shiny record and a Big Ten regular season championship, but pulling them down is a non-conference schedule that featured a grand total of zero top-100 NET teams. North Carolina’s resume is a less extreme version of that.

Nebraska is a classic case of a team that does what it was supposed to do – for the most part, they’ve won games they were favored to win and lost games they were expected to lose. That lands them here. Ole Miss, two seasons removed from winning just seven games, finds itself here thanks to a remarkable turnaround led by Coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin and star center Shakira Austin.

And-1 by Kira has the Rebs in striking distance! (@Theylove_kira) pic.twitter.com/voR1kchx5w

— Ole Miss Women's BB (@OleMissWBB) March 5, 2022

No. 7 Seeds

Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky (SEC autobid), Kansas State

Aside from sharing a home state, Georgia and Georgia Tech are in similar spots in other ways, too. The defensive-minded squads have comparable resumes buoyed by big wins over NC State (for Georgia) and UConn (for Georgia Tech), and both are losers of five of their last eight.

Much has been said about Kentucky’s magnificent turnaround, and this team deserves that praise and more. They managed to turn a sub-.500 resume that looked dead in the water into a top-30 resume in the span of about three weeks.

Kansas State is the only team on lines No. 5 through No. 7 that hasn’t completed its resume yet. There’s a chance a loss to Texas tomorrow drops the Wildcats into an 8 vs. 9 matchup.

No. 8 Seeds

FGCU (Atlantic Sun autobid), UCF (American autobid), Utah, Florida

FGCU would have loved to climb onto the No. 7 line and avoid a No. 1 seed in the second round, but a loss to Stetson on Feb. 12 probably eliminated that opportunity. If the committee overlooks that blip for the fact that Kierstan Bell was injured, they may have an outside shot.

UCF is in the midst of perhaps its best season in school history, and no one will want to face that grind-it-out defense next week. Utah is on the opposite end of the scoring spectrum, but is also an incredible story after recording just five wins last year.

The key for Florida’s seeding will be how the committee views a team that just lost its leading scorer for the season in Kiki Smith.

No. 9 Seeds

South Florida, Arkansas, Creighton, Miami

How much recency bias will the committee apply to South Florida? The Bulls lost by just seven points to a healthy UConn squad and beat Stanford on a neutral floor in November, but they haven’t beaten a tournament team since then. A win over UCF in the AAC title game Thursday night might be enough to switch lines with them, but that shouldn’t matter when both are in the 8 vs. 9 matchup.

Arkansas has an ugly number in the loss column (13), but the Razorbacks played one of the toughest schedules in the country and were the victims of some close losses.

One of those losses was to Creighton, the second Big East team safely in the field. Miami’s story is Kentucky-like: WNIT to NCAA Tournament lock in mere days.

BACK-TO-BACK UPSETS FOR MIAMI 🙌

The Hurricanes are headed to their first #ACCWBB championship game in school history‼️ pic.twitter.com/Q0W3V5HJ4W

— ESPN (@espn) March 5, 2022

No. 10 Seeds

Washington State, Colorado, South Dakota (Summit autobid), Kansas

Washington State and Colorado are both on this line for now, but if Princeton or Missouri State plays well enough this weekend to catch one of them, Washington State’s head-to-head victory over the Buffs may be key.

South Dakota was probably already in, but you never know with mid-majors, so Coyotes fans breathed a sigh of relief when they punched their ticket on Tuesday. Kansas should be in as well, but it wouldn’t hurt for them to win a game at the Big 12 tournament and eliminate any doubt.

No. 11 Seeds

Princeton (Ivy autobid), Missouri State (MVC autobid), Missouri, Northwestern, Dayton

Missouri joins Washington State, Colorado and Kansas in the last four byes. Lauren Hansen’s layup to beat South Carolina is looking more and more crucial every day.

Northwestern and Dayton are part of the last four in, so both of them will be rooting hard for Missouri State and Princeton to win their conference tournaments this weekend. If either loses, the Missouri Valley or the Ivy could become two-bid leagues, knocking one or two other teams out of the field.

No. 12 Seeds

Villanova, Boston College, Gonzaga (WCC autobid), IUPUI (Horizon autobid), UMass (Atlantic 10 autobid)

Villanova and Boston College round out the last four in and can do nothing but sit back and watch the bubble action around them this weekend. IUPUI won at Iowa, UMass hung with Iowa State and each team has a Hammon Award semifinalist, so either could give a No. 5 seed fits.

Don’t sleep on the Zags, either. After two losses to BYU in the regular season, Gonzaga showed it’s ready for March with a 12-point win over the Cougars in the third meeting on Tuesday.

knock it ⬇️ @Twinballerz pic.twitter.com/MiOQqmJH3K

— Gonzaga Women's Basketball (@ZagWBB) March 8, 2022

No. 13 Seeds

SFA (WAC autobid), Belmont (OVC autobid), MTSU (C-USA autobid), UNLV (Mountain West autobid)

Belmont became the first team to punch its ticket on Saturday, and UNLV joined them with a win in the Mountain West title game Wednesday night. MTSU has work to do as it opens C-USA tournament play Thursday afternoon.

SFA was an overtime away from a 12-5 upset last year and would prefer another No. 12 seed this year in order to get its first-round opponent on a neutral floor. A home loss to UTRGV in the regular season finale, however, put that possibility in serious jeopardy.

No. 14 Seeds

Buffalo (MAC autobid), Drexel (CAA autobid), Fairfield (MAAC autobid), UTA (Sun Belt autobid)

Buffalo didn’t earn the No. 1 seed in the MAC, but the Bulls are slight favorites in the conference tournament since Toledo has a tougher matchup in the semifinals Friday against Ball State. Should Buffalo get in, the world will get to see Dyaisha Fair, who hung 22 on South Carolina’s stout defense back in November and is currently top five in the nation in scoring at 23 points per game.

No. 15 Seeds

Jackson State (SWAC autobid), Bucknell (Patriot autobid), Maine (America East autobid), Mercer (SoCon autobid)

Navy did Bucknell a favor by knocking off the Patriot League’s No. 1 seed on a miraculous shot. Jackson State is as battle-tested as they come on the No. 15 line, and no No. 2 seed should want to game-plan for them.

No. 16 Seeds

Montana State (Big Sky autobid), UC Davis (Big West autobid), Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC autobid), Houston Baptist (Southland autobid), Norfolk State (MEAC autobid), Longwood (Big South autobid)

For the first time in NCAA women’s basketball history, two teams on the No. 16 line will get to experience tournament wins as the First Four will pit four of these six against each other next Wednesday and Thursday. Watch out for Montana State’s Darian White, a dynamic point guard who can get it done in a variety of ways.

Darian to the rim and is fouled for the AND ONE! She's up to 16 points as the 'Cats try to stay in this one. #GoCatsGo pic.twitter.com/cllwRvNIIV

— Montana State WBB (@MSUBobcatsWBB) March 10, 2022

First four out

Alabama, Florida State, South Dakota State, UCLA

Next four out

Duke, DePaul, Marquette, Rhode Island

Like the last four in, these teams are big Missouri State and Princeton fans this weekend. None of these eight have a chance to help themselves anymore, as all fell last week in their conference tournaments.

Duke’s victory over Iowa is the best win among this group, but a brutal loss to Virginia and a 7-11 record in the ACC are tough to overcome.

South Dakota State is the best team of the eight, but at-large bids are about the best resume, not the best team. The Jackrabbits have a resume worthy of the tournament when only looking at the games they’ve played since star Myah Selland came back from injury, but the committee probably won’t be able to overlook their 3-7 start to the season.

Conferences with multiple bids

SEC – 9
ACC – 8
Big Ten– 7
Big 12 – 6
Pac-12 – 6
Big East – 3
AAC – 2
A10 – 2
WCC – 2

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

The No. 4 Phoenix Mercury went the distance on Tuesday night, overcoming a 20-point deficit against the No. 1 Minnesota Lynx to secure an 89-83 Game 2 win in overtime — and sending the 2025 WNBA semifinals to Arizona tied at 1-1.

Even more, Phoenix's come-from-behind victory set records as the third-largest comeback in WNBA playoff history.

Mercury forward Satou Sabally led the team with 24 points, while guard Sami Whitcomb added 13 points off the bench — including the game-tying three-pointer that propelled the matchup into overtime.

"Just pride, toughness, grit. I couldn't be more proud of our group for doing that," Mercury head coach Nate Tibbetts said afterwards. "I'm fired up. Phoenix is going to be rocking on Friday and Sunday."

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Just Women’s Sports (@justwomenssports)

After dominating Game 1, Tuesday's defeat marked the first time in Lynx franchise history that they lost a postseason game after holding a double-digit halftime lead.

"Suddenly, we lost our way," said Minnesota head coach Cheryl Reeve. "We didn't respond. Then when we needed to go get buckets and we had good opportunities, we weren't strong enough."

"I think we beat ourselves," forward Napheesa Collier added. "Unforced turnovers, not taking care of the ball when they were pressuring us, just keeping our composure in those situations is huge."

How to watch the Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury in Game 3

The No. 4 Phoenix Mercury will host the No. 1 Minnesota Lynx for Game 3 of the 2025 WNBA semifinals at 9:30 PM ET on Friday, airing live on ESPN2.

The No. 2 Las Vegas Aces reclaimed their contender status in Game 2 on Tuesday night, taking down the No. 6 Indiana Fever in a 90-68 blowout victory to tie their best-of-five 2025 WNBA semifinals at 1-1.

Reigning WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson fueled the Aces' bounce-back performance with 25 points and nine rebounds, backed by 10 points apiece from reserves Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans.

"I just think we came to work," Wilson said following the win. "We didn't come to work in Game 1, and that's on all of us. I think Game 2, we just decided to come to work."

Physicality on the court — as well as the referees' response to it — has played a major role in the Aces vs. Fever series, with Las Vegas clearly upping the intensity to keep Indiana at bay on Tuesday.

"It's playoffs — very physical games," said Aces forward NaLyssa Smith afterwards. "I feel like we've got to match the energy, day in and day out."

"It's hard for us to find flow when there's a foul called every 10 seconds," Fever head coach Stephanie White lamented. "When they're at the free throw line, we can't get up and down the floor, and that's a challenge."

How to watch the Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever in Game 3

The 2025 WNBA semifinals next travels to Indiana for Game 3, with the No. 6 Fever hosting the No. 2 Aces at 7:30 PM ET on Friday, with live coverage airing on ESPN2.

Despite finishing at the bottom of the 2025 WNBA standings, the No. 12 Chicago Sky and No. 13 Dallas Wings will not be moving on from their current head coaches according to a report from Front Office Sports this week.

Dallas sideline leader Chris Koclanes and Chicago manager Tyler Marsh led their sides to identical 10-34 records in their first year at the helm — the worst in the league this season.

In contrast, 2025 playoff participants Seattle and New York are already making aggressive coaching changes, dismissing Storm boss Noelle Quinn and Liberty leader Sandy Brondello following first-round postseason exits.

While some fans criticized the presumed decision, Chicago Sky and Dallas Wings stars spoke out in support of their head coaches.

"Obviously the season didn't go how we expected, but being able to have a coach like Tyler, it was amazing through the ups and downs," Chicago center Kamilla Cardoso told reporters. "He always showed up every day with the same energy, no matter what the record was."

"The team embodies the attitude of your leader," echoed Dallas guard Paige Bueckers. "And for [Koclanes] to show up every single day at work and pour into all of us…it means a lot to us as a team."

With the 2025 WNBA Playoffs in full swing, many big-name players are shifting their focus to the winter, joining the 2026 roster for offseason leagues like 3×3 upstart Unrivaled and 5×5 Athletes Unlimited.

Connecticut Sun rookie Aneesah Morrow officially signed with AU Pro Basketball this week, joining WNBA veteran teammate Tina Charles, Las Vegas Aces standout and 2023 AU champion NaLyssa Smith, as well as fellow pro first-years in guards Kaitlyn Chen (Golden State Valkyries) and Te-Hina PaoPao (Atlanta Dream) on the AU court.

The 2026 Athletes Unlimited Basketball season also boasts several returning stars among its 40-player league roster, including Chicago Sky guard Kia Nurse, Washington Mystics forward Alysha Clark, Seattle Storm guard Lexie Brown, and New York Liberty forward Isabelle Harrison.

Tipping off its fifth season in February 2026, the month-long Nashville-based competition features rotating teams and individual leaderboards, offering an alternative to both overseas play and Unrivaled's 3×3 team format.

"It's player-driven," Charles said in her own AU Basketball signing announcement earlier this month. "I think that's really neat, you know, something that I've never been a part of, nor have I seen on men's or women's side."

How to watch the 2026 Athletes Unlimited Basketball season

The upcoming 2026 season of AU Pro Basketball runs from February 5th through March 2nd, with all 24 games airing live across several different broadcasters.