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NCAA Tournament bracketology: Projecting 2023 teams and seeds

Virginia Tech put itself in the conversation for a No. 1 seed with its ACC Tournament win. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

March Madness is creeping up on us, and every team is fighting to earn its spot in the field. The Selection Show takes place at 8 p.m. ET Sunday. In the meantime, contenders are battling it out in conference tournaments for automatic bids and resume-building wins.

Here’s what I think the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket should look like if the season ended today.

No. 1 seeds

South Carolina, Indiana, Stanford, Virginia Tech

Undefeated SEC champion and reigning national title winner South Carolina is the de facto overall No. 1 seed.

Next comes Indiana, which — despite losing to Iowa and being on the wrong end of a 24-point comeback by Ohio State — has been consistent all season in a Big Ten conference that challenges teams at every turn. The Hoosiers have done enough to keep a 1-seed. While an argument can be made for Iowa, which took home the Big Ten tournament title, overall body of work gives the edge to Indiana. The Hawkeyes have been on a tear lately, but they have more questionable losses on the season than Indiana (Kansas State, in particular).

Stanford will be the third No. 1 seed despite a few slip-ups this season. The Cardinal’s loss to UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament hurts, but not enough to bump them off the top line. Stanford has a No. 4 NET ranking and solid wins in and out of conference.

Competition for the final No. 1 seed is fierce. Iowa, Utah, Maryland and UConn were all in contention, but Virginia Tech played itself into the top of the bracket thanks to an ACC tournament title and an impressive record against top-ranked opponents.

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Aliyah Edwards has been a bright spot for a UConn team beset by multiple injuries. (Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports)

No. 2 seeds

UConn, Iowa, Utah, Maryland

Iowa just misses out on a 1-seed, but their Big Ten tournament win makes the Hawkeyes the best of the No. 2s. Meanwhile, Maryland’s overall resume is solid enough to keep a 2-seed despite the Terrapins getting blown out by Iowa in the same tournament. Maryland has some of the best non-conference wins out of this bunch, topping both UConn and Notre Dame (when the Irish were at full strength). That and regular-season success in one of the country’s top conferences helps Maryland’s case.

Utah played itself out of a 1-seed by losing to Washington State in the Pac-12 tournament, but the Utes have done enough during the regular season to stop themselves from dropping even further. Other than that Washington State loss, the Utes lost only to ranked teams while beating stellar conference opponents, including Stanford, Colorado and UCLA.

UConn gets the final 2-seed thanks to strength of schedule. LSU’s loss to Tennessee in the SEC tournament allows the Huskies to keep their spot.

No. 3 seeds

Duke, Notre Dame, LSU, Texas

Two ACC teams find themselves on the 3-seed list, a testament to the conference’s strength. Duke would have been a No. 2 prior to their loss to Virginia Tech on Feb. 16 and close call against Virginia in their next game. They didn’t help their case in the conference tournament, either.

Notre Dame has been struggling without Dara Mabrey and Olivia Miles, and their lopsided loss to Louisville in the ACC tournament is proof of that. Still, overall body of work has to be considered when it comes to seeding. The Irish have great wins over teams such as UConn and Virginia Tech, plus a high NET ranking (8). They may struggle in March Madness without two of their starters, but that has nothing to do with seeding.

Texas is the surprise team on this list, but the Longhorns have crept back into favor in the past month. After a rocky start to the season, during which the Longhorns lost four of their first seven games and fell out of the AP poll, they’ve turned things around. They picked up a statement win over Oklahoma on Jan. 25 and are currently 11th in the NET rankings.

If the Tigers had a better resume heading into the conference tournament, they might have been able to hang onto a higher seed. But with no standout wins on their non-conference slate, LSU has to fall back on their two-loss record, which should give UConn an edge in the fight for a 2-seed. LSU’s consistency despite its weak schedule barely allows them to hang onto a 3-seed.

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Villanova's Maddy Siegrist leads all scorers in NCAA Division I this season. (Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 4 seeds

Ohio State, UCLA, Oklahoma, Villanova

Ohio State is the surprise of this group. The Buckeyes started the season looking unbeatable, with an 18-0 record to match, but then as injuries to Madison Greene (out for the season), Jacy Sheldon and Rebeka Mikulasikova plagued the squad, they dropped seven of their last 13 games. But the Buckeyes have some fight left, and they proved it with a monumental win over Indiana in the Big Ten tournament. A 4-seed may seem a bit high, but no one in the 5 and 6 groups has done anything to show they are more worthy than the Buckeyes, who just executed a 24-point comeback over a team projected to be a No. 1 seed.

UCLA was sitting behind both Arizona and Colorado in seeding before it topped Stanford in the Pac-12 tournament, while the Buffs and the Wildcats went down early. The Bruins had a difficult January, dropping games to Arizona, Utah and Colorado, but then bounced back with four wins in a row. Add in the win over the conference’s top team, and UCLA has the resume for a 4-seed.

No. 5 seeds

Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Louisville

The chaos of the Pac-12 tournament affected Arizona and Colorado in a big way. One win by each team and they might be hosting the first round. Instead, these squads find themselves on the 5-line. The Buffs in particular miss out, as they have been nearly unstoppable at home this season.

Michigan also didn’t help itself in the Big Ten tournament, nor in the games leading up to it. A loss to Ohio State looks better now that the Buckeyes beat Indiana, but Michigan’s resume is no better than any of the 4-seeds and no worse than the 6s.

Louisville’s appearance in the ACC championship game moves the Cardinals from a 6- to a 5-seed.

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Florida State guard Ta'Niya Latson is a leading candidate for Freshman of the Year. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

No. 6 seeds

Florida State, North Carolina, Iowa State, Tennessee

The six-seeds are all teams that have gone through struggles and surprises this season. Florida State worked itself into the conversation when they beat North Carolina back in December, and since then, wins over NC State and Duke have only helped their case.

Tennessee struggled mightily out of the gate but settled into a good place as the season progressed. North Carolina has wins worthy of a higher seeding, but their inconsistency — the Tar Heels are 21-10 — keeps them from moving up.

Iowa State has stayed under the radar since Stephanie Soares tore her ACL and took the Cyclones out of national title conversations. Still, they’ve had a solid season, and as the Big 12 tournament begins, they can make a case to move up. For now, a 6-seed is a good spot for this team, which gets a boost by being 12th in the NET.

No. 7 seeds

Gonzaga, NC State, Creighton, Washington State

Of the 7-seeds, Gonzaga is the strongest. The likely WCC champions are 28-3, with quality wins over Tennessee and Louisville. They’ve also taken care of business in conference with just one loss.

NC State earns this position thanks to wins over Iowa and Notre Dame despite struggling overall in the ACC (8-8). The big upsets and a No. 18 ranking in the NET help the Wolfpack’s case.

Washington State is the surprise of this group. Before the Pac-12 tournament, the Cougars were among the last eight or so teams to earn a bid. Now, they not only have secured an automatic bid, they have played themselves up from a 10- or 11-seed and onto the 7-line. Topping Utah, Colorado and UCLA is no easy feat, but the Cougars pulled it off.

Creighton finished third in the Big East behind UConn and Villanova, with a victory over the latter helping the Blue Jays’ resume. They went on to lose a close game to the Wildcats in their conference tournament, but that doesn’t negatively impact the team overall.

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USC snapped Stanford's 51-game winning streak against unranked opponents in January. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 8 seeds

Illinois, Baylor, USC, South Florida

Illinois, Baylor and USC are all in the same boat. They’ve had amazing wins as well as head-scratching losses. But each team has enough quality victories to fall into the 8-seed category.

South Florida should lock up a No. 8 seed by winning the AAC but could fall if an upset occurs.

No. 9 seeds

Kansas, Miami, Marquette, Ole Miss

I know teams don’t earn their seeds based on games they almost won, but Ole Miss’ near upset of South Carolina in the regular season is indicative of how good the Rebels can be. They’ve held their own in the SEC with a 9-5 record and have wins over other potential tournament teams in Georgia and Arkansas.

Kansas and Marquette both spent time in the AP Top 25 this season but find themselves unranked at the moment. Miami is in the top half of a stacked ACC, having beaten North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Florida State, which makes them one of the stronger 9-seeds.

No. 10 seeds

Columbia, Purdue, Middle Tennessee, Alabama

Middle Tennessee is well-respected by AP voters, having been ranked in the Top 25 for the last few weeks. While the Blue Raiders play in Conference USA, which doesn’t earn them any points, they did beat Louisville in December and have been consistent since then.

Another notable 10-seed is Columbia, a potential sleeper in the NCAA Tournament. Led by sharpshooter Abbey Hsu and her 18.2 points per game, the Lions are 24-1 and atop the Ivy League standings.

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Jayla Everett and St. John's took down No. 4 UConn late in the regular season. (Gregory Fisher/USA TODAY Sports)

No. 11 seeds

Florida Gulf Coast, St. John’s, Nebraska, Syracuse, Princeton

St. John’s played itself into the tournament by upsetting UConn late in the regular season, and Syracuse, Princeton and Nebraska are all on the bubble.

No. 12 seeds

UNLV, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, South Dakota State, Mississippi State

UNLV is another team that I would hate to match up with in the first round. The Runnin’ Rebels don’t get much love nationally while playing in the Mountain West, but that’s where the eye test comes in. UNLV has Power 5 talent, and if you watch them even once, it’s easy to see why they are a scary opponent.

St. Louis secured an automatic bid with a cinematic win over UMass in its conference final.

No. 13 seeds

Illinois State, Toledo, Green Bay, Long Beach State

Illinois State is fighting with Belmont for an automatic bid in the Missouri Valley, while Toledo is battling it out with Ball State in the Mid-American.

No. 14 seeds

James Madison, Iona, Boston, Drexel

The Boston Terriers are firmly in first place in the Patriot League and are the favorite to win the conference tournament. They went 17-1 in conference play this season.

No. 15 seeds

Albany, Fairleigh Dickinson, Montana State, Gardner-Webb

In the 15-seed group, Montana State stands out as a team with multiple wins over high-level opponents. The Bobcats defeated BYU and South Dakota State early in the season.

No. 16 seeds

Chattanooga / Norfolk State, Jackson State / SE Louisiana, Southern Utah, Tennessee State

All eyes will be on Jackson State this postseason after the Tigers nearly topped LSU in the first round of the 2022 tournament.

Eden Laase is a Staff Writer at Just Women’s Sports. Follow her on Twitter @eden_laase.

NWSL Unveils New Tiffany & Co. Shield and MVP Trophies

The new NWSL season MVP and Shield trophies shine
Tiffany & Co. designed the new NWSL regular-season MVP and Shield trophies. (NWSL)

The NWSL, in collaboration with Tiffany & Co., dropped revamped Shield and regular-season MVP trophies on Wednesday.

The bold new hardware is part of a plan to “set a new standard for recognition in women’s sports” by giving the Tiffany treatment to all NWSL end-of-season awards. This year's two additions join the redesigned Championship and Championship MVP awards that kicked off the league’s partnership with the jewelry company last year.

An NWSL Shield worthy of superheroes

Both awards are handcrafted by Tiffany & Co. The refreshed MVP award includes a silver soccer ball atop a tall base.

"The best players in the world play here at the NWSL, and it is only fitting that we work with Tiffany to honor the best of the best," said NWSL chief marketing and commercial officer Julie Haddon in the league's announcement. “It has been a long time coming to create a suite of awards that are as extraordinary as our athletes."

Inspired by ancient Greco-Roman armor, the 24K gold and sterling silver Shield features a unique, interactive design. It is equipped with a handle so it can be removed from its base and held like "a true shield." 

The silver soccer ball that's part of the new NWSL season MVP trophy
The 2024 NWSL regular-season MVP race could see Temwa Chawinga or Barbra Banda claim the new Tiffany & Co. trophy. (NWSL)

Orlando poised to handle the new hardware

As the still-undefeated league leaders, the Orlando Pride are the clear frontrunners to claim the redesigned NWSL Shield.

The second-place Washington Spirit, third-place Gotham FC, and fourth-place KC Current are technically still in the running. However, with four matchdays left, Orlando can clinch the Shield outright by either defeating the Spirit this Sunday or winning two other remaining matches.

The regular-season MVP award race is tighter. Though Golden Boot leader Temwa Chawinga (KC) and the league's next top scorer Barbra Banda (Orlando) have pulled away from the pack.

And if Banda snags the honor, both new trophies will likely be bound for Florida.

Aces Fall Back, Lynx Level Up in Game 2 of WNBA Semifinals

Aces center A'ja Wilson dribbles against the Liberty's Breanna Stewart in the 2024 WNBA semifinals.
Breanna Stewart's Liberty and A'ja Wilson's Aces will next square off in Las Vegas on Friday.(David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)

Two games into the best-of-five 2024 WNBA semifinals, and the back-to-back defending champion Aces are staring down elimination while the Lynx evened the score last night.

With Friday's Game 3 offering a venue change, Las Vegas will need every ounce of their home-court advantage to continue their playoff run, while Minnesota's aim will be to silence the Connecticut crowd.

Las Vegas guard Tiffany Hayes attempts a lay-up against the Liberty's Breanna Stewart.
No WNBA has ever won a best-of-five playoff series after starting 0-2. (David L. Nemec/NBAE via Getty Images)

Aces on the brink of elimination after Game 2 loss

Tuesday's second-straight loss, an 88-84 defeat by the No. 1 seed Liberty in Brooklyn, has No. 4 seed Las Vegas on the brink of playoff elimination. The Aces are now the first reigning champions to ever fall to a 0-2 deficit in a WNBA playoff series.

Las Vegas has yet to conquer the Liberty this season, falling a franchise record-tying five straight times to same opponent, all after defeating New York in the 2023 WNBA Finals.

New York's Sabrina Ionescu and Las Vegas's A'ja Wilson led their teams in scoring with 24 points each, while Liberty guard Courtney Vandersloot provided a crucial spark off the bench. 

Should Las Vegas turn things around when the series moves back to Nevada on Friday, they'd become the first team to ever bounce back from 0-2 to reach the WNBA Finals.

Aces guard Chelsea Gray put a positive spin on the challenge, saying "I love being in the history books, so might as well try to start there. That's going to be our mentality."

Lynx guard Courtney Williams lays up a shot surrounded by Connecticut defenders.
Minnesota and Connecticut will play at least two more games to close out the WNBA semifinals. (David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

Lynx level up with Game 2 semifinal win in Minnesota

No. 2 seed Minnesota evened their semifinal score with No. 3 seed Connecticut on Tuesday, earning a 77-70 win in Minneapolis to send the series back East at one victory apiece.

Courtney Williams led the Lynx in scoring with 17 points, while a physical Minnesota defense held the Sun to less than 40% shooting from the field.

In the loss, Sun forward DeWanna Bonner became the third all-time leading scorer in WNBA postseason history. She also inked her name into the league record books as the player with the most appearances in playoff history at 83 games and counting.

Friday kicks off a guaranteed two-game run in Connecticut, with the home side on a mission to reach the Finals for the first time since 2022.

How to watch Game 3 of the WNBA semifinals

Las Vegas and Minnesota will look to pick up critical wins in Friday's Game 3, with the Aces facing a must-win scenario in front of what promises to be a rocking home crowd.

The Lynx will travel to Connecticut for a 7:30 PM ET tip off on Friday, October 4th, followed by a Liberty vs. Aces showdown in Las Vegas at 9:30 PM ET. Both games are scheduled to air on ESPN2.

The Late Sub Podcast: Can The Aces Bounce Back in the WNBA Semis?

A'ja Wilson reacts to a play in the Aces's Game 1 WNBA semifinal loss to the Liberty
A'ja Wilson and the Aces will try to rebound from their Game 1 WNBA semifinal loss to the Liberty on Tuesday. (Evan Yu/NBAE via Getty Images)

In this week's episode of The Late Sub, host Claire Watkins takes a look at the first games of the 2024 WNBA semifinals, discussion whether or not Aces and Lynx fans can find the silver lining in their teams' respective shortcomings heading into Game 2.

Then, she shouts out the big winners and losers of this weekend's NWSL's slate, including this season's historic Golden Boot race and the competition to clinch one of the final playoff spots.

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes in women’s sports. This is the weekly rundown you’ve been missing, covering the USWNT, NWSL, WNBA, college hoops, and whatever else is popping off in women’s sports each week. Special guest appearances with the biggest names in women’s sports make The Late Sub a must-listen for every fan. Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women’s Sports newsletter for more.

Subscribe to The Late Sub to never miss an episode.

WNBA Announces 2025 Expansion Draft Details for Golden State Valkyries

A rendering of the Golden State Valkyries V-shaped locker room
The Golden State Valkyries expansion draft will take place on December 6th. (Golden State Valkyries)

On Monday, the WNBA announced that the expansion draft for incoming 2025 franchise the Golden State Valkyries will be held December 6th.

This will mark the league's first expansion draft since 2008, when the Atlanta Dream joined the league.

A purple and black WNBA sign
The WNBA will allow current teams to protect six players each from Valkyries selection. (Josh Huston/NBAE via Getty Images)

League sets draft limitations on 2025 expansion draft

Per the rules, the WNBA's 12 current teams can protect up to six players each, with all others available for selection. Those available for selection include all athletes each franchise holds rights to as of the end of the 2024 regular season. Accordingly, that pool spans both active players and those on suspended, retired, core, draft, or reserved lists.

Current teams must submit full roster lists showing all players — including those protected — to the league by a yet-to-be-set deadline. That deadline will likely fall around 10 days prior to the expansion draft.

In the expansion draft, the Valkyries will be able to pick a maximum of one player from each team. They can also choose only one 2024 unrestricted free agent.

A rendering of one of the Golden State Valkyries's multi-hoop training courts
Golden State will have their own trade window ahead of the December draft. (Golden State Valkyries)

Valkyries trade window could spur strategic WNBA moves

Perhaps most interestingly, once all roster lists are submitted, Golden State will be allotted a short pre-draft trade window to broker deals.

During this window, they can negotiate with teams to select, or purposefully not select, certain athletes. Golden State can also pick a player with the express purpose of trading them to another franchise.

A hand reaches for a WNBA logo basketball midair
With two more franchises set to join the WNBA, 2025 will likely see at least one more expansion draft. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Expect more WNBA roster shake-ups next season

The league has yet to announce if Golden State will be granted 2025 college draft picks, but has said the Valkyries will be eligible to participate in February’s free agency period.

With two new WNBA franchises in Toronto and Portland slated to begin play in 2026, Golden State's draft will likely be a preview of more expansion drafts to come next year.

While December 6th's proceedings will air live on ESPN, other aspects of the expansion draft will not be made public, including the current teams's protected players lists.

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