The U.S. women’s national team, for the first time in 13 straight World Cup games, did not win on Wednesday night. Instead, they tied the Netherlands 1-1, which makes the math for advancing a bit more complicated.

The last time the USWNT tied a game in the World Cup group stage (against Sweden in 2015), they went on to win the World Cup. But in order to do that this year in New Zealand, they need to advance — and that’s not as clear-cut as it was 24 hours ago.

The USWNT needs just a point to qualify, but ideally want to win their group. They’ve done so in seven of eight World Cup appearances, finishing second in 2011, and they’ve never before been knocked out of the World Cup in the group stage.

Here are all of the scenarios facing the USWNT in their final group-stage match against Portugal on Tuesday (3 a.m. ET, FOX).

How the USWNT wins Group E

• If they beat Portugal, and the Netherlands don’t overtake them on goal differential. Currently, the USWNT holds a +3 goal differential, compared to the Netherlands at +1. The Netherlands would have to score two more goals in a win over Vietnam than the USWNT does in a win over Portugal.
• If the USWNT draws Portugal, and Vietnam manages to draw the Netherlands by any scoreline. (Reminder: Draws cancel out goal differential, which is goals scored minus goals conceded).
• If the USWNT draws Portugal, and Vietnam beats the Netherlands.

How the USWNT advances if they don’t win the group

• If they win OR draw Portugal. With Portugal currently sitting on three points and the USWNT four, a draw would result in the USWNT having five points and Portugal four. Regardless of the Netherlands’ result, the USWNT would advance.
• If they lose to Portugal, they can still advance if Vietnam wins or draws the Netherlands and the USWNT holds a favorable tiebreaker.
• If they lose to Portugal, and the Netherlands also lose to Vietnam, then the USWNT will advance — unless they lose by more than 2+ goals and the Netherlands lose by a lesser number. Then, the goal differential will favor the Netherlands and they will advance alongside Portugal.

If the USWNT loses to Portugal, they will not advance if the Netherlands draw or win against Vietnam.

In this week's episode of The Late Sub, host Claire Watkins breaks down the newly reported indefinite absence of NWSL star Trinity Rodman from the Washington Spirit, with the 22-year-old attacker rehabbing an ongoing back injury that could reshape the prospects of both the Spirit and the USWNT.

Calling her "the face of the NWSL," Watkins details the Spirit star's long-term back injury, which has led Rodman to seek treatment with a team doctor in London — all while acknowledging that she doesn't think her "back will ever be 100%."

Watkins digs into the potential contributing factors to Rodman's current injury status, including the USWNT's heavy use of the forward during the 2024 Olympic gold medal-winning run in Paris — and whether the team will make different decisions going forward due to the fallout on players like Rodman.

"I'm really curious if [USWNT manager Emma] Hayes and her coaching staff will adjust the way they approach strikers in the future, or forwards in the future, or rotation — or if this is just one of those many stories of a player giving it all for the United States and living with the consequences," says Watkins.

As for Washington, Watkins note that — in the wake of copious injuries — the Spirit is still finding ways to win, with club owner Michele Kang and the coaching staff shrewdly managing the depleted roster.

"I think they would be a juggernaut if they were healthy, but they can win pretty, they can win ugly," notes Watkins.

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'An NWSL breaking point'

Watkins also points out that she thinks Rodman's choice to seek treatment in London could be significant, as the forward is currently in a contract year.

With multiple NWSL standouts recently defecting to European clubs, Watkins argues that the US league is hitting a "breaking point" when it comes to retaining top players.

"I am just really, really curious if, by the end of this season, this situation has led Rodman back to the Spirit or if this is the beginning of a player having to progress forward in a different environment," Watkins sums up.

About 'The Late Sub' with Claire Watkins

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes on the USWNT, NWSL, and all things women's soccer. Special guest appearances featuring the biggest names in women’s sports make TLS a must-listen for every soccer fan.

Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women’s Sports newsletter for more.

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There's a traffic jam in the middle of the NWSL standings, with this weekend's slate bound to create some distance among mid-table teams jockeying to break free from the pack.

Between rising underdogs and top-dog rivalries, expect the 2025 NWSL season's sixth matchday to leave it all on the field:

• No. 2 Orlando Pride vs. No. 6 Angel City, Friday at 8 PM ET (Prime): With both teams coming off demoralizing losses last weekend, the 2024 NWSL champs will fight to bounce back against the LA upstarts in Friday's marquee matchup.

• No. 10 Houston Dash vs. No. 11 Utah Royals, Friday at 8 PM ET (NWSL+): Tied up at four points apiece, the pair of struggling teams just below playoff contention on the NWSL table will battle for a boost above the cutoff line as the recently sold Royals take a trip to Texas on Friday.

• No. 3 Washington Spirit vs. No. 4 Gotham FC, Saturday at 1 PM ET (CBS): This week's top-table showdown features two injury-struck East Coast rivals getting rowdy at Audi — can Gotham turn things around or will Washington keep persevering?

• No. 9 Bay FC vs. No. 8 Seattle Reign, Saturday at 10 PM ET (ION): Seattle holds a slim tie-break over Bay FC as both teams hug the playoff line, with the Reign looking to build on last week’s Cascadia Clash victory over Portland.

This weekend has the potential to divide the contenders from the pretenders, while the league's top three clubs continue to hold court over the rest of the field.

Saturday's soccer lineup underlines a brewing East Coast rivalry, as the Washington Spirit hosts Gotham FC for the first time since knocking the Bats out of the 2024 NWSL semifinals.

"Just playing against them, you feel that fire," Spirit forward Makenna Morris told JWS this week, with Washington's Audi Field anticipating a large crowd for Saturday's match.

Both clubs know each other well, with 2021 NWSL champions Washington and 2023 trophy-winners Gotham seeing a number of big-name players migrating between New York and DC in recent years.

After finishing 2024 in the league's top four, both teams continue to lurk near the top of NWSL table this season, cementing the idea that the best rivalries blossom between winning sides.

"The [team] that poses the most challenge to you, it just makes you want to beat them so bad," said Washington midfielder Gabby Carle.

"You hate to play them because they're good, but you also love it because it's so competitive," echoed Morris.

Ultimately, familiarity is breeding healthy resentment between two of the NWSL's winningest sides, providing a little extra incentive to secure all three points in this weekend’s matchup.

How to watch NWSL rivals Washington vs. Gotham this weekend

The Spirit will host East Coast rival Gotham at 1 PM ET on Saturday, with live coverage of the 2024 NWSL semifinals rematch airing on CBS.

As the 2024/25 UEFA Women's Champions League (UWCL) wraps up its two-leg semifinals on Sunday, the English teams still in the running find themselves on the brink of elimination from Europe's most prestigious club competition.

Facing a 4-1 deficit against reigning champs Barcelona, Chelsea will aim to close the gap — and keep their historic quadruple hopes alive — at home this weekend.

Meanwhile, Arsenal will try to overcome a more manageable 2-1 deficit against eight-time Champions League winners Lyon, traveling to France to keep their UWCL campaign alive.

An English side hasn't won the UWCL since 2007, when Arsenal took home the WSL's lone European championship trophy.

"Huge respect for their history and what they have been doing and producing in the Champions League, in Europe," Arsenal manager Renée Slegers said of Lyon. "I think they're still a very strong side."

"Subconsciously, you always have that thing when you fall short, like last year," said Lyon midfielder and USWNT captain Lindsey Heaps, reflecting back on last season’s title loss to Barcelona. "You lose a game, you lose a tournament – the feeling is there until you're back in the the games that can fix that feeling."

How to watch the 2024/25 Champions League semifinals

Sunday's second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League semifinals kicks off with Chelsea vs. Barcelona at 9 AM ET, before Arsenal faces Lyon at 12 PM ET.

Both matches will air live on DAZN.