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WNBA betting guide: Take advantage of the Chicago Sky’s hot streak

While Las Vegas is still the championship betting favorite, Chicago’s stock is soaring. (Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images)

The WNBA All-Star Game is just days away, which means soon we’ll have betting lines for one of the most unique and exciting women’s basketball events to place your money on. (Who can forget the monumental mistake sportsbooks made for last year’s event?)

For now, we can recap the last several weeks of WNBA regular season action from a betting perspective.

Team trends

Aces stumbling

If the last few weeks have reminded us of anything, it’s that even the best are always vulnerable in sports. The juggernaut Aces, once the clear and undisputed top team in the league, have come back down to earth as of late. They are still the favorites to win the championship, but they’ve generally faded in the betting landscape.

Las Vegas is just 2-9 against the spread since the start of June, and in one of those wins, they covered by a mere 1.5 points. The All-Star break couldn’t come at a better time for this squad. While it won’t be as restful for the Aces as it will be for most other teams, considering much of their starting lineup will be in the All-Star Game in Chicago, it still should give them a chance to regroup and reset.

Sky surging

Meanwhile, Las Vegas’ Commissioner Cup opponent has been trending in the opposite direction. Chicago has won 11 of its last 13, with the only two losses coming by two points each. In the process, the Sky have cashed their spread bet eight times after beginning the season 2-6 against the spread.

Your next chance to bet on the Sky will come on Wednesday against one of the other hottest teams in the league: Minnesota. These two teams played a fantastic game just over a week ago, in which Courtney Vandersloot won it at the buzzer after the Sky blew a double-digit lead. In spite of the hot streak, letting teams claw their way back in games has been a theme for the Sky, so if they take a big lead early, it could be a good opportunity to bet on the other side.

Dream riding Tiffany Hayes

Tiffany Hayes made her season debut with a bang last week against the Liberty, knocking down four of her six triples and finishing with 21 points. The Dream won outright as 5.5-point underdogs in the process, and followed that up with a blowout upset of Seattle three days later also as 5.5-point underdogs.

After an excellent May and a tough June, the returns of Hayes and Erica Wheeler could mean Atlanta is in store for a big July. Their last game before the break comes against the Mystics, who will have Elena Delle Donne and will almost certainly be favored. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta cashes another underdog moneyline, or at the very least covers for a third straight time since Hayes has returned.

League trends

Checking on trends we’ve been monitoring

While second-quarter unders have faltered, coming down to 51.2 percent on the season (although still 55.9 percent when following a first-quarter over), fourth-quarter unders may be back. The under hit in over 62 percent of fourth quarters last season, but it started out practically 50/50 through 100 games this season: 51-49.

Since then, they have gone 20-7 with one push. That trend is even stronger, albeit in a smaller sample, when looking at the second legs of back-to-backs. Sportsbooks seem to have adjusted for the overall effect of back-to-backs being lower scoring, but they haven’t necessarily adjusted far enough when it comes to the fourth quarters of those games, when players are the most tired. Those unders are 8-2 on the season.

Some totals too low?

A new trend that’s emerging this season is the tendency for low totals to hit the over. Games for which the closing line has been 161 or lower have surpassed that total 36 times and gone under just 18, good for a 67 percent hit rate.

These totals are obviously coming largely from teams that play some combination of great defense, bad offense and slow-paced basketball — teams like the Mystics, the Storm or the Dream — so it makes sense that the lines are low. But if sportsbooks are overvaluing just how slow or defensive these teams are, it gives us a chance to make some money on those overs in the 150s.

Futures update

Here are FanDuel’s biggest movers of the last three weeks.

Stock up: Sky (+440 previous to +300 current)

Chicago’s hot streak hasn’t gone unnoticed by sportsbooks, as their odds have continued to shorten and have passed up the Connecticut Sun. A win over the team the Sky are chasing in the odds — the Aces — certainly didn’t hurt, nor did taking over first place in the standings.

The Storm are a very close second here, mostly thanks to adding Tina Charles during that time frame. Charles has never won a championship, but if she can continue to buy into this “bench alpha” role rather than demanding starter-level minutes and shots that would take away volume from Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd, Seattle may be in a good position.

Stock down: Sparks (+6500 previous to +15000 current)

This one is interesting, as Los Angeles has actually been playing fairly well recently. They’ve covered in five straight games, winning four of them outright despite only being favored in one.

However, it also became more and more clear in June that there is a gap between the WNBA’s top five and the rest, and the Sparks are not in that top group. They also fired head coach Derek Fisher in June, so +6500 was probably too short to begin with.

Best bets tonight

Seattle/Indiana over 158.5

Remember when the Fever started the season playing the fastest of any team in league history? Yes, they’ve played at a more reasonable pace since then, but this is still a very low line for any game involving Indiana.

And of course, this falls into the category we talked about above: Lines 161 or below that have gone over two-thirds of the time. Expect this one to be played in the 160s.

Connecticut/Dallas under 163.5

On the other side, you have a line that may have made more sense a few weeks ago, but the Sun offense hasn’t been too impressive over this recent stretch. In fact, Connecticut’s offensive rating of 91.3 over its last five games ranks dead-last in the WNBA over that time.

The first meeting between these two teams finished under this total, and the second one eclipsed it by just a few points thanks to the Sun’s 25-for-27 night at the free throw line. It will probably take something of that magnitude to hit this high of a total again.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

UEFA Draw Sets Champions League Quarterfinals

The UEFA Champions League trophy sits on display before the 2024/25 quarterfinals draw.
Eight teams' paths to May's Champions League final in Lisbon were determined in Friday's draw. (Kristian Skeie - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

The 2024/25 Champions League quarterfinals are officially set, with UEFA drawing the remaining eight teams into the field early Friday morning.

The annual season-long competition pits Europe's top leagues against each other. This season, 72 clubs across 50 different leagues qualified for the contest. From the UK to Ukraine, all teams have been vying for the continent's top-dog status amidst a cutthroat atmosphere and a growing sense of parity in the sport.

Two qualifying rounds narrowed the initial teams down to the 16 contending in the tournament's official group stage. Each played six group-stage matches from October through December to determine the eight clubs that advanced to Friday's final draw.

A screen shows the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal pairings at Friday's draw.
Four previous champions made the 2024/25 Champions League quarterfinals. (Kristian Skeie - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

The road to Champions League glory in Lisbon

All remaining clubs are now eyeing the May 24th final in Lisbon, Portugal, and Friday's draw mapped each team's path to that championship match. The 2024/25 quarterfinals will feature four former champions and four seeking a first-ever trophy, with both familiar fights and rarely tested toss-ups on deck.

Both the March quarterfinals and April semifinals employ a two-leg format, offering teams who suffer narrow first losses a shot at second-match redemption.

Friday's draw determined that WSL contenders Arsenal will kick off the tournament's quarterfinals against Real Madrid on March 18th, with Germany's Bayern Munich taking on France's 2024 UWCL runners-up Olympique Lyonnais shortly afterwards.

The following day, Bayern's Frauen-Bundesliga foes Wolfsburg will face Spain's 2024 UWCL champs FC Barcelona. Closing out the initial tilts is a WSL standoff between Manchester City and the UK league's undefeated titans Chelsea FC.

Lyon's Michele Kang, president of the winningest Champions League team in history, speaks to the media after Friday's UEFA draw.
Backed by club president Michele Kang, Lyon will seek its record ninth UWCL title this year. (Kristian Skeie - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

Increased global parity to test UWCL dynasties

With eight of the tournament's 23 titles under their belts, Lyon is the winningest team in UWCL history. Meanwhile, current back-to-back champions Barcelona claimed three of the last four trophies.

Despite the recent two-team domination, capturing this season's title will be a challenge. Hoping to spoil Lyon's and Barcelona's dynastic runs is four first-time title-hunters, plus two-time winners Wolfsburg and early champion Arsenal — who won the trophy in 2007, when the tournament was called the UEFA Women's Cup.

All in all, the European crown has never been tougher to claim, with leagues across the continent increasingly stocking up on standout — and potentially game-changing — players from beyond their borders.

Portland Announces Joint NWSL x WNBA Training Center

A rendering of the outside of the proposed NWSL x WNBA performance complex in Portland.
The Portland facility will be the first shared WNBA-NWSL performance complex under the same ownership. (RAJ Sports/Populous)

Portland is going all in on women's sports, with RAJ Sports — the ownership group behind both the NWSL's Thorns and Portland's incoming WNBA team — announcing the development of a new $150 million sports performance complex on Thursday.

The 12-acre dual-sport performance center will be the first-ever facility housing both a pro women's soccer squad and a pro women's basketball team.

Innovation and amenities lead Portland design

At 63,000 square feet, the incoming NWSL x WNBA training facility will feature two basketball courts, two soccer pitches, a 17,000-square-foot practice gym, a state-of-the-art strength training facility, and a laundry list of additional top-of-the-line amenities.

According to the Thorns' announcement, the center aims to "[elevate] the standard of athletic development by integrating cutting-edge training, advanced recovery, and holistic wellness with lifestyle elements specific to the needs of female athletes in a collaborative multi-team setting."

The wellness additions include recovery lounges and pools, hyperbaric therapy, red-light therapy, and a yoga and pilates room, plus access to a full-time chef and nutritionist via the center's kitchen and dining hall.

"This kind of high-performance training facility allows us to elevate every part of our game, becoming better and more well-rounded athletes," said Thorns forward Sophia Wilson (née Smith).

"Having a space designed specifically for female athletes gives us yet another leg up on the competition and will be vital to our future successes."

A rendering of the basketball court in the proposed Portland performance complex.
The WNBA and NWSL performance complex adds Portland to a growing list of women's sports facilities. (RAJ Sports/Populous)

Portland joins other WNBA and NWSL teams building own facilities

Portland is just the latest in a wave of women's teams across top-tier US leagues breaking ground on dedicated performance facilities.

Earlier this week, WNBA newcomer Golden State unveiled their own custom-built Valkyries Performance Center. Last month, NWSL side Angel City cut the ribbon on their dedicated training facility.

RAJ Sports’ effort to continue the investment trend comes barely a year after their January 2024 purchase of the Thorns. That move was finalized a little over eight months before the WNBA accepted their expansion bid, making the Bhathal family — who also have a stake in the NBA's Sacramento Kings — the first-ever ownership group to oversee pro women's teams in two different sports.

Las Vegas Aces Revamp Roster with Offseason Moves

Las Vegas Aces standouts Sydney Colson and Tiffany Hayes race downcourt during a 2024 game.
Both Sydney Colson and Tiffany Hayes are departing Las Vegas this season. (David Becker/NBAE via Getty Images)

WNBA roster shakeups kept rolling this week, with a deluge of moves radically reshaping the 2022 and 2023 league champion Las Vegas Aces.

After three seasons in Las Vegas, backup guard and popular locker room presence Sydney Colson signed a one-year deal with Indiana on Thursday. The Fever, who've been aggressive about inking athletes they believe will bring a title back to Indianapolis, targeted Colson for her veteran experience.

"[Colson] brings a championship pedigree to the Fever, adding depth to our point guard position, said Fever COO and GM Amber Cox in the team's announcement. "We have the utmost confidence in her ability to step into any situation and deliver on both ends of the floor."

Joining Colson in leaving Las Vegas is forward Alysha Clark. A key factor in the Aces' 2023 title run — which ultimately earned her the WNBA's Sixth Woman of the Year award — Clark is returning to the Seattle Storm, where she played from 2012 to 2020.

The Aces are also losing their 2024 Sixth Woman of the Year, Tiffany Hayes. Despite the Aces protecting her in December's expansion draft, the free agent guard will take her talents to incoming franchise Golden State. There, she'll link up with former Las Vegas assistant coach-turned-Valkyries boss Natalie Nakase.

"Having coached Tiffany last season in Las Vegas, I know firsthand the impact she brings both on and off the court," Nakase noted. "Her versatility, intensity, and ability to score will be invaluable as we build our team's identity."

Atlanta's Cheyenne Parker-Tyus guards Las Vegas's A'ja Wilson during a 2024 WNBA game.
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus will join A'ja Wilson in the Aces' front court this season. (Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Las Vegas Aces take aim at refreshed dynasty

After falling short of a three-peat championship last season — despite three-time WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson's outstanding 2024 performance — a significant Aces roster reshuffling was all but guaranteed ahead of the 2025 season.

Las Vegas kicked things off by shipping All-Star guard Kelsey Plum off to the LA Sparks last month. The blockbuster three-team trade sent Seattle's two-time champ Jewell Loyd to the Aces in return.

To shore up their front-court, Las Vegas inked 6-foot-4 power forward Cheyenne Parker-Tyus on Thursday. The 2023 All-Star averaged 15 points and 6.7 rebounds for Atlanta that season, and was on her way to matching that production last year when an ankle injury curbed her 2024 run.

Ultimately, Las Vegas's roller coaster offseason reflects both the WNBA's shifting landscape and the Aces' quest to revive their former dynasty, hoping a fresh start can fuel them all the way to another league title in 2025.

Tennessee Upsets NCAA Rival UConn in Vols’ First Top 10 Win

Tennessee basketball players Jewel Spear and Zee Spearman celebrate their 80-76 upset win over UConn.
Tennessee scored their first win over UConn since 2007. (Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)

No. 19 Tennessee notched the first major win of their Kim Caldwell era on Thursday night, stifling No. 5 UConn 80-76 to capture their first Top 10 basketball victory of the season — and first win over the Huskies since 2007.

Bolstered by a 13-0 run in the third quarter, Tennessee out-rebounded UConn 46-34 to hold the Huskies at bay.

On defense, the Vols managed to limit UConn star and projected 2025 WNBA Draft No. 1 pick Paige Bueckers to just 5-of-16 from the field and 2-of-6 from beyond the arc.

"We had poise down the stretch. I think we played with confidence. I think we played to win, as opposed to afraid to lose," commented first-year Tennessee head coach Caldwell after the game.

Tennessee flips the historic rivalry script against UConn

Once one of the most heated historic rivalries in NCAA basketball, Tennessee and UConn met 22 times from 1995 to 2007. The Huskies took 13 victories over that stretch.

Since the teams rebooted their non-conference series in 2020, UConn has taken the win in all four meetings — until Tennessee halted the Huskies on Thursday.

A big upset win from the Vols has felt increasingly inevitable this season, as Tennessee has come wildly close to claiming multiple top-tier upsets. They fell to No. 4 Texas by just four points, No. 6 LSU by two points, and logged one-point losses against both No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 24 Vanderbilt.

Last week, the Vols lost to No. 2 South Carolina 70-63. Subsequently, Tennessee became just the second team to limit the reigning NCAA champs to a single-digit win this season.

Despite Tennessee’s recent rise, Thursday's result was a blow to UConn. The Huskies are now 21-3 in 2024/25 play, with all three losses coming against Top 10 teams. UConn likely has just one regular-season Top 10 matchup left by way of a February 16th clash with South Carolina.

"The bottom line is we have some players on our team that are supposed to be our best players and they've got to play better. That's all there is to it," said UConn head coach Geno Auriemma in response.

South Carolina's Bree Hall defends Texas guard Madison Booker during a 2024 NCAA basketball game.
Texas and South Carolina will meet in a Top-4 matchup on Sunday. (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

How to watch top-ranked NCAA basketball this weekend

As tough as the SEC has been, there's little rest for the weary, with No. 19 Tennessee gearing up for a rematch with No. 6 LSU at 4 PM ET on Sunday. Live coverage will air on ESPN.

In Top 10 weekend action, No. 8 Ohio State will cap their West Coast trip against No. 7 USC at 9 PM ET on Saturday, live on Fox Sports.

Then on Sunday, No. 4 Texas will host No. 2 South Carolina at 2 PM ET, with ESPN broadcasting live.

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