We’ve reached a historic WNBA Finals, as the two teams with the lowest combined winning percentage in WNBA Finals history will square off for all the glory.

The No. 6 Sky made their way here by taking apart the top-seeded Sun, while the No. 5 Mercury clawed their way to a thrilling semifinal win in Game 5 over the Aces to set up a rematch of the 2014 Finals.

With so much on the line for the teams, it’s always fun to put something on the line for yourself as well. That’s where betting comes in.

Let’s get you set for everything you need to know to bet on the WNBA Finals.

Chicago Sky

The Sky present an interesting betting case as the quintessential “peaking at the right time” team. It’s often the case in sports that such teams find another gear to the extent that sportsbook models aren’t able to adjust fast enough.

This seems to be true with Chicago, who has not only won five of its six playoff games but also covered the betting spread in all five wins. That even includes two double-digit wins as underdogs.

Part of the reason is their elevated play, of course, and it wouldn’t be fair to ignore the contributions of players like Kahleah Copper or Azurá Stevens who have stepped up their game. But the presence of Candace Parker has been a key to this surprising run.

Much has been made of Chicago’s overall win-loss records with and without Parker this season, and that point remains true when looking at the records against the spread (ATS). At 11-11 with one push, the Sky were a .500 ATS team with Parker in the lineup during the regular season. In theory, every team should be a .500 ATS team if the sportsbooks are good at setting the lines.

In the nine games Parker missed, however, the Sky covered in just one of them. Combine that with the experience and intangibles the former champion brings to a franchise with no rings, and maybe we should have seen this coming.

Parker also had a significant effect on the totals during the regular season: The under hit in five of nine games without her on the floor but in just eight of the 23 games that she played. There were higher scoring totals in the games with last year’s Defensive Player of the Year on the court. Go figure.

Phoenix Mercury

It’s easy to forget now, but the Mercury entered the second half of the season firmly on the playoff bubble. They sat in seventh place at the Olympic break, just a game up on the ninth-place Wings.

What followed was a ten-game winning streak that cemented Phoenix’s status as contenders and earned their bettors lots of money in the process. The Mercury covered the spread in seven of their first eight games coming out of the break, and in doing so they launched themselves up the leaderboard of most profitable teams.

As it stands now, no team has earned its bettors more money on either the moneylines or the spread. Including the regular season and the playoffs, the Mercury are 25-13 against the spread (with a push) and would have earned $888 for bettors who bet $100 on all of their moneylines.

The concern for Phoenix going forward will be depth. With Kia Nurse’s season over and Sophie Cunningham still nursing an injury, Sandy Brondello played just seven players in Game 5 against Las Vegas. Kia Vaughn and Bria Hartley combined for 20 minutes, which was the entirety of the bench’s contributions.

Shey Peddy was sensational in the win — and has been for the last few games in which she’s been called on to step up — but the soon-to-be 33-year-old had played 30 minutes just once in her career prior to September. The injuries and heavy starter minutes in the Game 5 war against Las Vegas may come back to hurt the Mercury as they go deeper into the Finals.

Where Phoenix can make up for that is in the paint. Chicago doesn’t have a Liz Cambage, so Brittney Griner will have a decided size advantage over anyone Chicago can throw at her. Expect more doubles in this matchup, so Phoenix’s perimeter shooting will be vital.

Previous matchups

When talking about the history between these two teams, the 2014 Finals immediately come to mind. Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner all played in that one, in which Phoenix emerged with the trophy.

More relevant for betting on this year’s iteration, Phoenix took all three regular season matchups in 2021. The first two were without Parker on the floor, and both were essentially coin-flip games. One ended in overtime, the other gave us a half-court Eurostep for the win.

A EUROSTEP HALFCOURT GAME WINNER 😳

Kia Nurse 🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/8HMnfAEXIn

— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) June 2, 2021

The Mercury took the last matchup by 20 points in the midst of their incredible August run. All three games closed with the home team favored by fewer than two points, and Phoenix covered in each game.

Before this year, the Sky had covered the spread in seven of their last eight matchups with the Mercury, including the last time they met in the playoffs — a 105-76 Sky win in the 2019 first round.

Home sweet home?

In typical pre-pandemic years, home-court advantage has been worth multiple points per game at basically any high level of basketball, including in the WNBA. After a 2020 season without home court for anyone, that factor was supposed to come back into play this season.

Not so, according to the numbers. Home teams outscored road teams during the regular season by less than half a point per game, and in the playoffs they’ve been practically even at 1,093 to 1,088.

Sportsbooks still don’t see it that way though. Lines for the semis moved by close to five points when the series shifted locations, a number that would have been consistent with past seasons’ data.

Home-court/field advantage has been steadily declining across most sports in recent years as replay review becomes more prevalent and limits the role of human error in officiating, but that wouldn’t be enough to explain the drastic drop in the WNBA this year. The culprit is presumably a combination of factors, such as fan restrictions at certain arenas and random variance.

Regardless, if bettors are looking for an edge on the spread in this series, the road teams may have one. They’ve covered in eight of 13 playoff games so far.

Half and quarter totals

Another edge for bettors may come in the over/unders for each half or quarter. Not all sportsbooks offer this, but the ones that do generally set those lines by dividing the game total by approximately two for the halves and by four for the quarters.

That’s already a little inefficient during the regular season, when games tend to get slower and teams average lower scoring during each successive quarter (and thus half). During the playoffs, that effect magnifies as the energy expenditure ramps up and legs tire even earlier.

This year, teams have totaled 1,121 points in the first half of all playoff games and just 1,013 in the second half. The quarter totals have dropped from 595 in first quarters to 489 in fourth quarters, marking an 18 percent decrease. It may be worth betting on the overs for the first half and quarter or on the second-half and fourth-quarter unders.

Series lines

Several sportsbooks are offering moneylines on the series winner, and they all like it to be a tight battle.

PointsBet Sportsbook has the Phoenix line at -120 and Chicago at +100, implying a 52 percent win probability for the Mercury.

Some books, PointsBet included, allow you to cash out your bet for the current value partway through (think of it like selling stocks). On those books, all you need for the Sky +100 side to turn a profit is for Chicago to steal one of two in Phoenix. If the series shifts to the Windy City knotted at one apiece, Chicago will likely take over as the favorite and that bet will increase in value.

Finals MVP

On Thursday, BetRivers Sportsbook posted Finals MVP odds for top players from the three teams remaining at that time. That list has been cut to 11 players, led by Griner and Taurasi with +300 odds each.

Those odds work the same way as game and series moneylines, so check out our intro if you’re new to betting and are interested in putting money on a Finals MVP winner.

I’m looking at the point guards here for good longshot odds. Skylar Diggins-Smith is at +1000 while you can get Courtney Vandersloot for +1400.

In Diggins-Smith’s case, Griner and Taurasi are certainly more likely to take the award, but are they really over three times more likely? That’s what these odds imply, but the third member of the Big Three may be a little closer to the first two than that suggests.

As for Vandersloot, while voters do love to back the leading scorer (which will most likely be Copper), they also love all-around stats and leadership. As the veteran signal caller of the offense and the best passer in the league for several years running, Vandersloot has a pretty clear path to winning this award as well.

For a more likely bet, go with Parker at +400: Her status as a legend (and hometown hero) will be hard for voters to look past if the Sky win. Her odds are almost even with Copper, but that doesn’t accurately reflect the emotions and storylines that will be at play.

(Also, while I won’t recommend betting on her, can we just stop and appreciate the fact that Shey Peddy is on this list at all? You can actually bet on Shey Peddy to win the Finals MVP … and she’s even ahead of three players!)

The verdict

For both Game 1 (Chicago +3.5) and the series, I see more value on the Chicago side. The way the Sky are clicking and the near-disappearance of home court should be enough to keep this series close, and that favors the underdog. The extra few days of rest shouldn’t hurt either.

As far as the over/unders, we’re talking about a Chicago team who made us forget how historic Connecticut was on defense and a Phoenix squad that is better equipped to simply outscore them than to stop them. Both have smaller offensively minded backcourts as well. I’ll ride the overs unless they start to creep too high later in the series. Game 1’s line is at 166.5 on PointsBet, a spot at which I’m definitely comfortable taking the over.

Whether you put money on the games or not, enjoy the moment. It’s not every year that we get a matchup this enticing and unlikely, so sit back and take it in. It’s bound to be entertaining.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

In this week's episode of The Late Sub, host Claire Watkins examines the individual standouts of the first third of the 2025 NWSL season, offering her early shortlist of players making strong cases in the league's MVP race.

As defenses continue to find their stride, league scoring is paving the way in the 2025 season so far, leading Watkins to put forth four top attackers, calling them "the most established, the most consistent" MVP candidates.

First, Watkins digs into Kansas City's Debinha, who sits second in the NWSL Golden Boot race with five goals and an assist through eight 2025 matches.

A two-time league champion and three-time Shield-winner with her previous club, the North Carolina Courage, Debinha already owns the 2019 MVP title in addition to two Challenge Cup MVP trophies.

Calling her "the big glitzy comeback story on what is right now the best team in the league," Watkins notes that Debinha is "a killer playmaker [with] a talent for exploiting space [and] finishing her own chances, while also making her teammates better."

Joining Debinha as an early MVP frontrunner is Gotham FC's Esther. With seven goals in nine games, the 2023 NWSL champ and 2023 World Cup winner tops the 2025 Golden Boot leaderboard thanks to her ability "to score with her head and with her feet."

"Where Esther goes, so goes Gotham," says Watkins. "They haven't won a single game this season in which she did not score. That's team impact."

Top 2024 candidates keep pace with 2025 frontrunners

Last year's leaders round out Watkins' MVP favorites, including "a player that gets better when the job gets harder," Orlando's Barbra Banda.

"[Teams are] doing a better job of putting a lot of bodies on Banda to try to slow her down," causing her scoring to take a hit, but Watkins argues that Banda is still "one of the best out-and-out strikers of the ball in the entire league."

Finally, though "there's never been a back-to-back MVP in league history," Watkins says that reigning NWSL MVP and Golden Boot winner Temwa Chawinga is making a major case for running it back, led by the Kansas City star's "superpower of opening space where there is none."

Thompson's rise make the ACFC forward an MVP dark horse

Finally, Watkins gives Angel City's Alyssa Thompson a unique nod, calling her the league's most improved player — an award that does not exist in the NWSL.

Remarking on Thompson's growth, Watkins points out the 20-year-old forward's leaps in consistency, poise, and her response to coaching at both the club and USWNT level.

"Her glimpses of brilliance are turning into something more consistent," describes Watkins. "She's fast.... She's a really good dribbler. She can take players on 1v1 and make them look silly, get in behind on goal, shoot, score. But she has widened her ability to connect with teammates.... She's just become a well-rounded winger in a way that we were not seeing before."

With four goals on the season, Thompson currently sits tied for fourth place in the 2025 Golden Boot race with the likes of Banda, Chawinga, Washington's Ashley Hatch, and Louisville's Emma Sears.

"Is [Thompson] in that space to to kind of overtake these really well established, consistent, dominant players [in the MVP race]?" wonders Watkins. "Maybe not. But the fact that she has made this leap to this stature in the league is huge."

About 'The Late Sub' with Claire Watkins

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes on the USWNT, NWSL, and all things women's soccer. Special guest appearances featuring the biggest names in women’s sports make TLS a must-listen for every soccer fan.

Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women's Sports newsletter for more.

Subscribe to The Late Sub to never miss an episode.

Angel City forward Alyssa Thompson has been a goal-scoring machine this season, leading the charge for a young team fighting its way up the NWSL table. But in May 2nd's end-to-end battle with 2024 NWSL runners-up Washington, the 20-year-old winger's most important play was a pass.

The California club had gotten off to a fast start in DC, scoring early as they worked their way into the match. The team was coming off a late-game collapse against 2024 champions Orlando the week prior. They hope to ward off another loss by generating as much offense as possible.

In the 22nd minute, Thompson, the ball at her feet, saw her teammate — and sister — right-back Gisele Thompson move out of ACFC's defensive end and dart into the Spirit's penalty area. Alyssa quickly served her sister the ball on a platter. The 19-year-old defender netted her first-ever NWSL goal a split-second later.

"My heart was pounding so hard," Alyssa told Just Women's Sports a few days after the match. "I was so excited for her."

"I always thought it was going to be me that scored, and she assisted me," she continued, given their respective positions. But Gisele's special moment also underlines Thompson's growth as a player. She's matured into a legitimate MVP candidate, while fifth-place ACFC enters the title conversation for the first time in franchise history.

Thompson on coping with USWNT growing pains

Thompson didn't give up on her Olympic dream for weeks after USWNT head coach Emma Hayes released her roster for the 2024 Summer Games. After all, she'd already featured in the 2023 World Cup at the age of 18, going on to receive regular call-ups through the rest of that year. 

But even as her name slipped off the USWNT roster in 2024, Thompson remained hopeful for a surprise selection. It wasn't until the team landed in Europe that the then-19-year-old began the process of accepting whatever came next.

"I think that helped me a lot, just letting go of that sadness I felt, knowing that I wasn't playing how I wanted to play," she said.

"During that time, I learned how to be a better professional, and took what we were doing more seriously," Thompson continued. She doubled up on training sessions, and spent extra time in the film room, laser-focused on her next opportunity to audition for US consideration.

All that work resulted in a newfound confidence, one that's fueled an attacking explosion continuing well into this season. Thompson scored five goals in the 2024 NWSL regular season after the Olympic break. It put her in prime position as the US set off down the long road to the 2027 World Cup.

Rising up the ranks — for both club and country

The USWNT eventually came calling once again. Hayes invited Thompson to rejoin the team for a series of friendlies in October 2024. And while she took full advantage of that chance — scoring her first senior national team goal against Iceland — it was her club career that really benefited from the long-awaited return.

These days, Thompson is considered one of the best wingers in the NWSL. Dribbling past defenders with ease, she connects with teammates as well as she shoots. She slots home strikes with a remarkable sense of calm. She's registered four goals and two assists over eight matches for Angel City this season. And she's shown a veteran savvyness far beyond her years.

"In the first three games, Alyssa's been the best player in the league," Angel City sporting director Mark Parsons told ESPN in early April.

USWNT manager Hayes echoed Parsons's sentiment. "The development in the last six months for her, I've been talking about it a lot this week," she said of Thompson's improvement last month. "You can really see how much she's closed that gap."

Thompson finds her footing in the NWSL

Selected No. 1 overall in the 2023 NWSL Draft at the age of 18, Thompson remembers having no idea what to expect in her rookie year. And, subsequently, having to build up the nerve to even ask for help.

"I thought it was like [high school] club," she said. "You come to training, you practice, and you leave, and then that's it. But being a professional is so much more than that. Taking care of your body, doing extras, looking at film, just putting in the extra work knowing that you want to get better."

A self-described introvert, Thompson didn't always know how to speak up. But that didn't stop her Angel City teammates from seeing her potential. She remembers NWSL mainstays like Ali Riley taking the time to talk to her, coaching her through becoming a professional athlete while simultaneously finishing her senior year of high school.

"It was really helpful having those people on the team knowing me and knowing that I did want the help," she says. "I just didn't know how to really ask — it was outside of my comfort zone to do that."

And it didn't stop there. When Thompson finally let go of playing in the 2024 Olympics, she turned to her teammate and locker buddy Christen Press, a two-time World Cup champion and USWNT legend in her own right. 

Over the season, Press talked Thompson through striking the ball, positioning herself in front of goal, choosing where to shoot, and other mechanics. But she also helped Thompson regain her confidence after the professional setback. She reminded the young forward over and over again of her ability to become a world-class player, and promising that she'd get another shot.

"I've always looked up to her," Thompson said of Press. "As an older sister, I feel like I crave some advice. Because I feel like I've always done everything first for my sisters. It's just been really nice getting to know her as a person. And I feel like I've just learned so much from her."

"Knowing that she was [saying], 'You can score. I believe in you,' really gave me a lot of confidence," she continued. "Like, 'Yeah, I can. If you believe in me, what can I not do?"

The sisterly bond driving Angel City

Despite still being just 20 years old, Thompson has transitioned to imparting wisdom onto her even-younger teammates. Of course, that includes her little sister Gisele, who signed with Angel City ahead of the 2024 NWSL season.

"I love playing with Alyssa," Gisele told JWS in January. "She makes me so comfortable in any situation, no matter where we're at. Having her by myself on the field and off the field, it makes me a better player and a better person."

Far from stoking sibling rivalry, the Thompson sisters are more than happy to share the field. In fact, the Los Angeles natives shared everything growing up, including a room. And according to Alyssa, their close upbringing makes working together easier. 

"We talk about things that annoy us. And then we talk about things that make us happy. And then we're bickering, and then it's fine, and then we go to eat," she said. "It's just how sisters are."

The pair currently live together in an apartment in LA. And they lean on each other for advice about soccer and more — even if things occasionally get heated.

"We're so competitive, we don't want to lose against each other," Gisele laughed. "It's really hard going against each other [in training]. But we love it."

The sisterly connection appears to be paying off. When Alyssa set Gisele up for that goal against the Spirit, the Thompsons became the first sister duo to combine for a goal in NWSL history.

Looking toward the future, together

Thompson's aims for the rest of the year are simple: score goals, win games, make the playoffs, and take Angel City on their deepest postseason run yet. And if she can accomplish all of that with her sister by her side, it'll be even sweeter.

"I definitely feel more a part of the team as the years go on," she said. "It feels really nice to see people that were in my shoes once, and treat them how the veterans treated me when I came in."

"My teammates really believe in me, and that belief drives me to want to be a better player."

Big-name roster cuts dominated the WNBA headlines on Wednesday, with teams scrambling to meet the league's size and salary cap requirements before Friday's 2025 season tip-off.

The Golden State Valkyries, Minnesota Lynx, Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics, and Dallas Wings announced finalized rosters, leaving a handful of teams still weighing their options as the clock ticks down.

Expansion side Golden State caused the most Wednesday commotion, dropping 2025 WNBA Draft Cinderella story Kaitlyn Chen (UConn) and 2023 No. 8 overall draft pick Laeticia Amihere (South Carolina), among other cuts, after initially waiving this year's No. 17 overall pick Shyanne Sellers (Maryland) last week.

With this year's No. 5 overall pick Justė Jocytė (Lithuania) choosing to remain overseas for this summer's EuroBasket, the Valkyries will now make their WNBA debut without a single 2025 draftee.

The South Carolina alum scored 20 points in her preseason debut for the Valkyries and was selected 8th overall by the Dream in the 2023 Draft. pic.twitter.com/JNQVpP1twS

— Just Women’s Sports (@justwsports) May 14, 2025

2023 WNBA Draft Class takes a hit

The hits kept coming for the 2023 WNBA Draft class, as Atlanta's No. 6 overall pick Haley Jones (Stanford) and Minnesota's No. 7 selectee Grace Berger (Indiana) joined Amihere on the league's cutting room floor on Wednesday — leaving only five 2023 first-rounders currently on WNBA rosters.

On the flip side, the Connecticut Sun dropped 30-year-old guard Diamond DeShields on Thursday morning — just three months after signing the 2021 WNBA champion.

Ultimately, rookies, mid-career players, and veterans alike are on the chopping block this week, with teams showing little mercy for fan favorites as they hone in on what promises to be a highly competitive 2025 WNBA season.

The NWSL Players Association (NWSLPA) is advocating for an immediate change in protocol in the name of player safety, with the union voicing concerns about the handling of Angel City defender Savy King's mid-match medical event last Friday.

Following current league guidelines, the game between the LA club and the Utah Royals resumed play on Friday, picking up where they left off after King's on-pitch collapse required nearly 10 minutes of life-saving intervention from medical staff.

Amid a crowd of visibly distressed players and coaches, paramedics rushed King to an area hospital, with the 20-year-old later undergoing successful surgery to fix a previously undetected heart abnormality.

"These moments demand humanity, sound judgment, and restraint," the NWSLPA posted on Wednesday. "Any medical emergency that requires the administration of life-saving care should bring play to an end. The match should not have continued."

"Our members are elite, world-class competitors who have proven they can perform under unimaginable conditions. That does not mean they should have to," the statement continued.

"Incidents of this severity must prioritize our collective humanity and should automatically trigger suspension of the match. The Players Association is committed to making this the standard in [the] NWSL."

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Just Women’s Sports (@justwomenssports)

NWSL player safety again takes center-pitch

As the NWSL braces for rapid expansion, the NWSLPA remains laser-focused on ensuring player safety never takes a backseat, both on and off the field.

That priority was mirrored in the league's own Wednesday post.

Shortly before the NWSLPA's statement hit feeds, the NWSL issued its own statement, saying "Player Safety is paramount to the NWSL. The seriousness of this incident requires a deliberate process that is careful and methodical. That process is underway and will include necessary revisions that prioritize the consideration of player, staff, and fan well-being."

The lack of an instant protocol change doesn't sit well with NWSLPA executive director Meghann Burke.

After reviewing the league's post, Burke told Front Office Sports "The reality is these decisions are made in real time. A decision needed to be made last Friday night.... Five days later, they still [haven't] decided whether or not this game should have been suspended." 

"This is a human issue. The right thing to do was to call this game. It doesn't take this long to realize that."