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WNBA playoffs odds, picks: Betting analysis for the second-round matchups

Minnesota’s Sylvia Fowles has said this will be her final WNBA season. (David Berding/Getty Images)

Round two of the WNBA playoffs is set for today, and despite many calls for a format change, the No. 3-seeded Lynx and No. 4-seeded Storm will have to sweat out single-elimination games.

The winners of Sunday’s games will advance to the semifinals, where they’ll get rewarded with a five-game series against either Connecticut or Las Vegas. But first things first, let’s break down today’s action from a betting perspective.

No. 5 Phoenix Mercury at No. 4 Seattle Storm (3 p.m. ET, ABC)

Talk about an escape job. The Mercury survived and advanced in The Sophie Cunningham Game on Thursday with an 83-82 win over the pesky Liberty. It was Phoenix’s second straight one-point win in the first round after Shey Peddy’s buzzer-beater sent them to the second round last season.

Meanwhile, the Storm certainly weren’t expecting to be playing Sunday after entering the break in first place, but considering they needed a win over Phoenix in their final game just to avoid Round 1, they’ll take what they can get.

Had the Mercury won that game just over a week ago, this one would be taking place in Phoenix. But Jewell Loyd had other plans, dropping 28 first half points to lead her team to a 94-85 win without Breanna Stewart.

The Mercury were favored by two in that one, but PointsBet has Sunday’s spread set at Mercury -3.5. And the unfortunate reality is that the best bet in this one will probably come down to player health.

Diana Taurasi is currently questionable for the contest, while Stewart has been ruled out. If Taurasi suits up, the best bet is probably on the Mercury -3.5 line. Of course, if that happens, the line will move at some point during the day, but there should be time between the injury update and the line movement to get a bet down.

Availability aside, the other key to this game lies in Phoenix’s perimeter defense. Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith are one of the deadliest backcourt duos in the league when they have the ball, and Peddy and Kia Nurse are solid complements as well. But none of them have an easy time matching up with a guard like Loyd on the other end.

The Mercury’s win Thursday marked the eighth straight game that they have allowed their opponent’s highest-scoring guard to score above their season average, including that game in Seattle in which Loyd hung 37 on them. If they can’t find a way to slow down Loyd this time around, they might be in trouble, even without Stewart on the court.

Health and backcourt defense should have an impact on the over/under as well. That line is set at 160.5.

For whatever Taurasi lacks on defense at this stage in her career, we all know how capable she is of lighting up the scoreboard. Factor in that Phoenix plays nearly five more possessions per 40 minutes with her on the court this year, and her presence is vital for hitting the over.

I’d hold off on putting any money on either the spread or the total of this game until we get confirmation on Taurasi’s status. If you’re close to a computer when you get the updates, check the lines to see if you can bet them before they change accordingly.

No. 6 Chicago Sky at No. 3 Minnesota Lynx (5 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Death, taxes and Cheryl Reeve in September. The legendary coach once again has her team in prime position to make some noise in the playoffs.

But first, she’ll have to get past her former assistant, Chicago head coach James Wade. After single-elimination exits in each of his first two seasons at the helm, Wade and his squad are hungry to break through to the semis.

They’ll have to do it as sizable underdogs, as PointsBet’s spread is currently Chicago +4.

The matchup with the storylines will be Candace Parker versus Sylvia Fowles, who have been rivals ever since their college days in the SEC. But the X-factor matchup in this one will be Kahleah Copper versus Aerial Powers.

Including Copper’s 23-point showing in Chicago’s first-round win over Dallas on Thursday, the Sky are 6-2 when their leading scorer uses at least 25 percent of their possessions. When her usage rate drops below 17 percent, they are 0-4. Getting her looks will be important for Wade’s offense.

On the flip side, Powers has come on strong as of late after a slow start with her new team that was worsened by an early season injury. All four of Powers’ 20-point performances have come in Minnesota’s last six games.

Powers has struggled in her career against Chicago, shooting just 32 percent — a full 10 percentage points worse than her field goal percentage against other teams. But Reeve has unlocked something in her this month, so that should carry over into the playoffs.

Between that, Minnesota’s 8-3 record against the spread as home favorites, and Chicago’s 2-5 mark as road underdogs, I’m still taking Minnesota -4 in this one.

I’ll also go with the over on the 165.5-point total here. With all the usual small sample caveats, both of the teams’ regular season matchups broke 190.

Perhaps more relevantly, the Sky and the Lynx are second and third in the percentage of games in which they’ve hit the over, at 58 and 56 percent respectively, behind only the Aces and their top-ranked offense.

Chicago looked locked in defensively for much of its win over Dallas on Thursday, so if that team shows up again, then this over could be in trouble. But Minnesota is no Dallas offensively — Reeve’s group has been a well-oiled machine down the stretch. I’ll take my chances at 165.5.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Wimbledon Increases Prize Money, Winner to Receive $4.07 Million

Czechia's Barbora Krejčíková celebrates a point during the 2024 Wimbledon final.
2025 Wimbledon competitors could win up to 11.1% more prize money this year. (Simon Bruty/Anychance/Getty Images)

Wimbledon is leveling up, as the annual London-based Grand Slam announced Thursday that it's increasing its purse by 7% across the board in 2025, pushing the total prize money to £53.5 million ($72.59 million) ahead of tennis tournament's June 30th kick-off.

Both the 2025 women's and men's singles champions will earn winner's checks in the amount of £3 million ($4.07 million) — an 11.1% increase over the amount won by 2024 champ Barbora Krejčíková.

With increases across all Slam events, from singles and doubles to wheelchair competitions, even athletes who stumble early will see a raise over last year's competition.

For example, singles players ousted in this year's first round will take home 10% more than in 2024, earning deposits of £66,000 ($89,530).

The 2025 total purse now doubles the prize money offered by the tournament a decade ago, and makes Wimbledon the biggest potential payday across all four of the sport's Grand Slams.

"We're immensely proud of the fact that, if you look back 10 years, you can see the increase over that period and 7% this year," said All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club chair Deborah Jevans. "And we have listened to the players, we have engaged with the players."

Canadian Swimmer Summer McIntosh Breaks 3rd World Record in Five Days

Canadian star swimmer Summer McIntosh competes in a 2025 race.
Summer McIntosh recorded three world records in five days at the 2025 Canadian swimming trials. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Teen swimmer Summer McIntosh made a major splash at the 2025 Canadian Swimming Trials, shattering three world records in just five days of competition in Victoria, BC.

First on Saturday, the Toronto swimmer shaved 1.2 seconds off the Australian Ariarne Titmus's 400-meter freestyle mark to set a new world record time of 3:54.18.

Then on Monday, McIntosh took down a decade-old record in the 200-meter individual medley (IM), becoming the first woman swimmer to complete the race in less than 2:06.00.

Just two days later, the 18-year-old McIntosh broke her own 400-meter IM world record, besting her 2024 Canadian Olympic Trials time by 0.73 seconds with a 4:23.65 race Wednesday.

With her unstoppable week-long performance, McIntosh became the first swimmer to set three new world records in different individual events at one meet since US legend Michael Phelps's historic run at the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

"Going into tonight, I knew I could do something really special because this has probably been the best meet of my career," McIntosh told reporters after Wednesday's race.

That said, the young star is already eyeing new times — and new records.

"Overall, [I'm] happy with the time, but I know I can go faster," said McIntosh following her 400-meter IM performance. "The faster I swim, the happier I am."

NWSL Returns to California for 2025 Championship Weekend

View of PayPal Park during a 2025 NWSL match.
San Jose's PayPal Park will host the 2025 NWSL Championship in November. (Eakin Howard/NWSL via Getty Images)

The NWSL Championship is on its way back West, with the league announcing on Friday morning that the 2025 title match will kick off from PayPal Park in San Jose, California.

Hosted at the home pitch of 2024 expansion team Bay FC, the game will take place on Saturday, November 22nd.

In addition to the championship match, the 2025 NWSL season's final weekend will include a variety of supporting events like Fan Fest and the annual Skills Challenge competition.

"We're thrilled to bring the NWSL Championship back to the West Coast and to a region with as rich a history in women's soccer as the Bay Area," said NWSL commissioner Jessica Berman in a league statement.

Citing a long list of former USWNT stars with local ties, including Julie Foudy, Kelley O'Hara, and Alex Morgan, Bay FC co-founder Brandi Chastain — a US legend herself — called the Bay Area "the place women's soccer calls home."

"Our community's fabric is woven with the greatest the game has to offer," explained Chastain.

"This community's passion for the game, combined with the excitement surrounding one of our newest teams in Bay FC, makes it the perfect setting to celebrate the league's top talent and crown our next champion," said Berman.

How to attend and watch the 2025 NWSL Championship

Like last year, the 2025 NWSL Championship will air in primetime, with CBS set to broadcast the match live at 8 PM ET on November 22nd.

Tickets to the game will be available for purchase beginning in August, though interested fans can sign up for presale access online now.

NWSL, WNBA Player Unions Address ICE Raids, Voice Solidarity with Los Angeles

Orlando Pride players huddle before a 2025 NWSL match.
The NWSLPA and the WNBPA put out a joint statement addressing this week's ICE raids in Los Angeles. (Alex Menendez/Getty Images)

The NWSL and WNBA Players Associations teamed up to release a joint statement on Thursday, with the unions expressing their solidarity with "all people seeking safety, dignity, and opportunity" after the recent ICE raids and ensuing protests in Los Angeles.

The move comes after Angel City published their own social media post addressing the ICE raids last Saturday, with the Los Angeles NWSL club noting "We know that our city is stronger because of its diversity and the people and families who shape it, love it, and call it home."

ACFC also directed immigrants in need of assistance in the wake of the ICE raids to two community organizations: the Coalition of Humane Immigrant Rights and the LA County Office of Immigrant Affairs.

Calling the WNBA Players Association "leaders in this space," NWSL Players Association executive director Meghann Burke told The Athletic that the basketball union initiated their joint statement.

"It's important to stand together as workers' unions," she noted.

NWSL and WNBA unions speak to families impacted by ICE raids

"It's not lost on us that this country and the world are in turmoil right now," wrote the NWSLPA and WNBPA. "Across the country, families are facing fear, hardship, and uncertainty tied to immigration."

The athlete unions then crystallized their position, saying, "We stand with all people seeking safety, dignity, and opportunity, no matter where they come from or where they hope to go."

"Every person deserves to be treated with dignity and respect," they continued. "We know not every situation is simple. But offering compassion should never be up for debate."

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