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WNBA playoffs odds, picks: Betting analysis for the second-round matchups

Minnesota’s Sylvia Fowles has said this will be her final WNBA season. (David Berding/Getty Images)

Round two of the WNBA playoffs is set for today, and despite many calls for a format change, the No. 3-seeded Lynx and No. 4-seeded Storm will have to sweat out single-elimination games.

The winners of Sunday’s games will advance to the semifinals, where they’ll get rewarded with a five-game series against either Connecticut or Las Vegas. But first things first, let’s break down today’s action from a betting perspective.

No. 5 Phoenix Mercury at No. 4 Seattle Storm (3 p.m. ET, ABC)

Talk about an escape job. The Mercury survived and advanced in The Sophie Cunningham Game on Thursday with an 83-82 win over the pesky Liberty. It was Phoenix’s second straight one-point win in the first round after Shey Peddy’s buzzer-beater sent them to the second round last season.

Meanwhile, the Storm certainly weren’t expecting to be playing Sunday after entering the break in first place, but considering they needed a win over Phoenix in their final game just to avoid Round 1, they’ll take what they can get.

Had the Mercury won that game just over a week ago, this one would be taking place in Phoenix. But Jewell Loyd had other plans, dropping 28 first half points to lead her team to a 94-85 win without Breanna Stewart.

The Mercury were favored by two in that one, but PointsBet has Sunday’s spread set at Mercury -3.5. And the unfortunate reality is that the best bet in this one will probably come down to player health.

Diana Taurasi is currently questionable for the contest, while Stewart has been ruled out. If Taurasi suits up, the best bet is probably on the Mercury -3.5 line. Of course, if that happens, the line will move at some point during the day, but there should be time between the injury update and the line movement to get a bet down.

Availability aside, the other key to this game lies in Phoenix’s perimeter defense. Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith are one of the deadliest backcourt duos in the league when they have the ball, and Peddy and Kia Nurse are solid complements as well. But none of them have an easy time matching up with a guard like Loyd on the other end.

The Mercury’s win Thursday marked the eighth straight game that they have allowed their opponent’s highest-scoring guard to score above their season average, including that game in Seattle in which Loyd hung 37 on them. If they can’t find a way to slow down Loyd this time around, they might be in trouble, even without Stewart on the court.

Health and backcourt defense should have an impact on the over/under as well. That line is set at 160.5.

For whatever Taurasi lacks on defense at this stage in her career, we all know how capable she is of lighting up the scoreboard. Factor in that Phoenix plays nearly five more possessions per 40 minutes with her on the court this year, and her presence is vital for hitting the over.

I’d hold off on putting any money on either the spread or the total of this game until we get confirmation on Taurasi’s status. If you’re close to a computer when you get the updates, check the lines to see if you can bet them before they change accordingly.

No. 6 Chicago Sky at No. 3 Minnesota Lynx (5 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Death, taxes and Cheryl Reeve in September. The legendary coach once again has her team in prime position to make some noise in the playoffs.

But first, she’ll have to get past her former assistant, Chicago head coach James Wade. After single-elimination exits in each of his first two seasons at the helm, Wade and his squad are hungry to break through to the semis.

They’ll have to do it as sizable underdogs, as PointsBet’s spread is currently Chicago +4.

The matchup with the storylines will be Candace Parker versus Sylvia Fowles, who have been rivals ever since their college days in the SEC. But the X-factor matchup in this one will be Kahleah Copper versus Aerial Powers.

Including Copper’s 23-point showing in Chicago’s first-round win over Dallas on Thursday, the Sky are 6-2 when their leading scorer uses at least 25 percent of their possessions. When her usage rate drops below 17 percent, they are 0-4. Getting her looks will be important for Wade’s offense.

On the flip side, Powers has come on strong as of late after a slow start with her new team that was worsened by an early season injury. All four of Powers’ 20-point performances have come in Minnesota’s last six games.

Powers has struggled in her career against Chicago, shooting just 32 percent — a full 10 percentage points worse than her field goal percentage against other teams. But Reeve has unlocked something in her this month, so that should carry over into the playoffs.

Between that, Minnesota’s 8-3 record against the spread as home favorites, and Chicago’s 2-5 mark as road underdogs, I’m still taking Minnesota -4 in this one.

I’ll also go with the over on the 165.5-point total here. With all the usual small sample caveats, both of the teams’ regular season matchups broke 190.

Perhaps more relevantly, the Sky and the Lynx are second and third in the percentage of games in which they’ve hit the over, at 58 and 56 percent respectively, behind only the Aces and their top-ranked offense.

Chicago looked locked in defensively for much of its win over Dallas on Thursday, so if that team shows up again, then this over could be in trouble. But Minnesota is no Dallas offensively — Reeve’s group has been a well-oiled machine down the stretch. I’ll take my chances at 165.5.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

US Tennis Stars Advance as Wimbledon Field Narrows

Italy's Jasmine Paolini celebrates her first-round win over Latvia's Anastasija Sevastova at the 2025 Wimbledon Championships
World No. 4 Jasmine Paolini fell in the second round of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships on Wednesday. (Daniel Kopatsch/Getty Images)

The 2025 Wimbledon Championships wrapped its second round on Thursday, with the grass court Grand Slam seeing just 15 of the tournament's 32 seeded players advance to the Friday and Saturday's third round.

A full half of the WTA's Top 10 players did not survive the week, with 2024 Wimbledon finalist and world No. 5 Jasmine Paolini joining four first-round star exits by falling to unseeded Kamilla Rakhimova in a three-set, second-round battle on Wednesday.

At the same time, unseeded fan favorites like Japan's No. 53 Naomi Osaka and England's own No. 40 Emma Raducanu secured third-round spots at the London Slam, joining top surviving contenders like No. 4 Iga Świątek and defending Wimbledon champion No. 16 Barbora Krejčíková.

Notably, a full five US players managed to move ahead, tied for the largest national contingent still standing at the tournament.

Led by 2025 Australian Open champion No. 8 Madison Keys, the US group also includes No. 10 Emma Navarro and No. 12 Amanda Anisimova, as well as unseeded players No. 54 Danielle Collins and No. 55 Hailey Baptiste.

With matches against Świątek and No. 7 Mirra Andreeva, respectively, Collins and Baptiste have a tough third round ahead — though Navarro's battle against the 2024 champ Krejčíková arguably headlines Saturday's slate.

US tennis star Emma Navarro eyes a return during a 2025 Wimbledon match.
US star Emma Navarro will face 2024 champ Barbora Krejčíková in Wimbledon's Round of 32. (Rob Newell/CameraSport via Getty Images)

How to watch Wimbledon this weekend

While world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is still holding strong in the dwindling field, this year's Wimbledon play is proving that the London Slam is anyone's to take, as the grass court humbles even the sport's top stars.

Expect the twists and turns to continue as tennis's best battle for spots in Sunday's Round of 16.

Round-of-32 Wimbledon play kicks off at 6 AM ET on Friday, with live continuous coverage of the tournament airing on ESPN.

Finland Opens Women’s Euro 2025 with Upset Upset Win Over Iceland

Finland's Katariina Kosola and Emma Koivisto celebrate a goal during their opening 2025 Euro match.
Finland earned a surprise 1-0 win over Iceland in their 2025 Euro opener on Wednesday. (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)

The 2025 European Championship is officially underway, as Euro action kicked off with a group-stage upset on Wednesday.

Though the 2025 UEFA tournament's opener was a sweltering affair amid a European heat wave, world No. 26 Finland prevailed, earning a 1-0 upset win over No. 14 Iceland in Group A.

Finnish winger Katariina Kosola played hero, curling in the winning goal in the match's 70th minute — just 12 minutes after Iceland midfielder Hildur Antonsdóttir picked up the competition's first red card.

"The result is important for our confidence," Kosola said after Finland's first major tournament win since the 2009 Euro. "It was the kind of goal I have been practicing a lot."

"It's terrible to lose and we feel frustrated," said Iceland head coach Thorsteinn Halldórsson. "It is an even group and we knew Finland were good, but our first half wasn't good enough."

Elsewhere, No. 16 Norway closed out Wednesday's slate on top of Group A, taking three points by defeating host No. 23 Switzerland in day's second match.

Led by captain and 2018 Ballon d'Or winner Ada Hegerberg — who pulled the match even with a second-half strike — Norway battled to a 2-1 comeback win, despite the Swiss side outshooting and out-possessing the Norwegians.

Spain jersey hang in lockers ahead of the team's 2025 Euro opening match against Portugal.
Reigning World Cup champions Spain will open their 2025 Euro account against Portugal. (Aitor Alcalde - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

How to watch this week's 2025 Euro action

Group B steals the 2025 Euro spotlight on Thursday.

While No. 13 Italy snagged a 1-0 opening win over No. 20 Belgium to kick off the day, 2023 World Cup champions and tournament favorite No. 2 Spain will face No. 22 Portugal at 3 PM ET.

Friday's Group C slate will pit No. 12 Denmark against No. 6 Sweden at 12 PM ET, before No. 3 Germany contends with No. 27 Poland at 3 PM ET.

Closing out the first group-stage matches will be arguably the toughest draw of the 2025 Euro pool.

Saturday's Group D slate features major tournament debutants No. 30 Wales against the No. 11 Netherlands at 12 PM ET, with No. 10 France taking on defending champions No. 5 England to cap the day at 3 PM ET.

Live coverage of 2025 Euro matches will air across Fox Sports platforms.

USWNT Caps Summer Friendlies with 3-0 Canada Shutout

Yazmeen Ryan, Michelle Cooper, Claire Hutton, Mandy McGlynn, and Izzy Rodriguez and the rest of the USWNT huddle after their July 2025 friendly win over Canada.
The USWNT finished the summer international window with 11 goals, conceding none, across three matches. (Brad Smith/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images)

The world No. 1 USWNT ruled the pitch on Wednesday night, shutting out North American rivals No. 8 Canada 3-0 to finish the international window on a high note.

Catching the Canada backline sleeping, US midfielder Sam Coffey opened the scoring at the 17-minute mark before 19-year-old Claire Hutton claimed her first-ever USWNT goal by heading in a Rose Lavelle corner kick in the game's 36th minute.

Houston Dash forward Yazmeen Ryan then padded the US tally in the waning minutes of the match, finding the back of the net just eight minutes after subbing onto the field.

Despite fielding a young roster, the US overpowered a veteran-heavy Canada side in almost every category, topping their Northern neighbors in shots, shots on target, possession, and — most notably — set pieces.

Canada ultimately couldn't match the game's mental pace or physical battle, as the USWNT scored all three goals off dead ball situations — a free kick, a corner kick, and a throw-in.

"It's not about the opponent," US head coach Emma Hayes said after the match. "It's about what we do, and I felt that was extremely dominant."

With Wednesday's contributions, the USWNT finishes the summer window with 11 goals scored across the three friendlies — and zero goals conceded.

The US now enters an extended break before reconvening for another as-yet-unannounced friendly series in October — but players will be expected to perform in the meantime.

"I said to the players in the end in the huddle, if you want to compete to win the biggest things, it's not what you do here that matters," said Hayes. "It's what you do when you go back to your club."

Seattle Storm Looks to Climb the WNBA Standings in Weekend Gauntlet

Seattle Storm star Nneka Ogwumike high-fives teammates as she's introduced before a 2025 WNBA game.
The No. 5 Seattle Storm will face No. 4 Atlanta and No. 3 New York this weekend. (Soobum Im/NBAE via Getty Images)

The 2025 WNBA regular season returns on Thursday night, with teams at the top of the league standings looking to prove their mettle against close competition across the long holiday weekend.

The No. 5 Seattle Storm have arguably the toughest weekend assignments, taking on the No. 4 Atlanta Dream on Friday before tackling the No. 3 New York Liberty on Sunday.

Four middle-of-the-pack teams will look to close in on a double-digit season win tally while the league's frontrunners strive to maintain their advantage in this weekend's slate:

  • No. 7 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 8 Indiana Fever, Thursday at 7 PM ET (Prime): Though still without star Caitlin Clark, the Fever hope to harness their 2025 WNBA Commissioner's Cup victory momentum against an Aces side tied with Indiana with an 8-8 season record.
  • No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Atlanta Dream, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): Seattle will look to make strides against a strong Atlanta side while putting last Sunday's stinging 84-57 loss to up-and-comer Golden State in their rearview.
  • No. 6 Golden State Valkyries vs. No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, Saturday at 8 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): The rising Valkyries must face a Lynx side hunting redemption, as the league-leaders look to bounce back from their stifling Tuesday Commissioner's Cup upset loss.
  • No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 3 New York Liberty, Sunday at 1 PM ET (CBS): With injured Liberty center Jonquel Jones still sidelined, the Seattle Storm will have a chance to steal a weekend game against the reigning champs, as New York struggles to re-find their footing.

With the 2025 WNBA All-Star break looming, early top performers must keep standards high if they want to hold the line when the season crosses the midway point.

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