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WNBA playoffs odds, picks: Betting analysis for the second-round matchups

Minnesota’s Sylvia Fowles has said this will be her final WNBA season. (David Berding/Getty Images)

Round two of the WNBA playoffs is set for today, and despite many calls for a format change, the No. 3-seeded Lynx and No. 4-seeded Storm will have to sweat out single-elimination games.

The winners of Sunday’s games will advance to the semifinals, where they’ll get rewarded with a five-game series against either Connecticut or Las Vegas. But first things first, let’s break down today’s action from a betting perspective.

No. 5 Phoenix Mercury at No. 4 Seattle Storm (3 p.m. ET, ABC)

Talk about an escape job. The Mercury survived and advanced in The Sophie Cunningham Game on Thursday with an 83-82 win over the pesky Liberty. It was Phoenix’s second straight one-point win in the first round after Shey Peddy’s buzzer-beater sent them to the second round last season.

Meanwhile, the Storm certainly weren’t expecting to be playing Sunday after entering the break in first place, but considering they needed a win over Phoenix in their final game just to avoid Round 1, they’ll take what they can get.

Had the Mercury won that game just over a week ago, this one would be taking place in Phoenix. But Jewell Loyd had other plans, dropping 28 first half points to lead her team to a 94-85 win without Breanna Stewart.

The Mercury were favored by two in that one, but PointsBet has Sunday’s spread set at Mercury -3.5. And the unfortunate reality is that the best bet in this one will probably come down to player health.

Diana Taurasi is currently questionable for the contest, while Stewart has been ruled out. If Taurasi suits up, the best bet is probably on the Mercury -3.5 line. Of course, if that happens, the line will move at some point during the day, but there should be time between the injury update and the line movement to get a bet down.

Availability aside, the other key to this game lies in Phoenix’s perimeter defense. Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith are one of the deadliest backcourt duos in the league when they have the ball, and Peddy and Kia Nurse are solid complements as well. But none of them have an easy time matching up with a guard like Loyd on the other end.

The Mercury’s win Thursday marked the eighth straight game that they have allowed their opponent’s highest-scoring guard to score above their season average, including that game in Seattle in which Loyd hung 37 on them. If they can’t find a way to slow down Loyd this time around, they might be in trouble, even without Stewart on the court.

Health and backcourt defense should have an impact on the over/under as well. That line is set at 160.5.

For whatever Taurasi lacks on defense at this stage in her career, we all know how capable she is of lighting up the scoreboard. Factor in that Phoenix plays nearly five more possessions per 40 minutes with her on the court this year, and her presence is vital for hitting the over.

I’d hold off on putting any money on either the spread or the total of this game until we get confirmation on Taurasi’s status. If you’re close to a computer when you get the updates, check the lines to see if you can bet them before they change accordingly.

No. 6 Chicago Sky at No. 3 Minnesota Lynx (5 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Death, taxes and Cheryl Reeve in September. The legendary coach once again has her team in prime position to make some noise in the playoffs.

But first, she’ll have to get past her former assistant, Chicago head coach James Wade. After single-elimination exits in each of his first two seasons at the helm, Wade and his squad are hungry to break through to the semis.

They’ll have to do it as sizable underdogs, as PointsBet’s spread is currently Chicago +4.

The matchup with the storylines will be Candace Parker versus Sylvia Fowles, who have been rivals ever since their college days in the SEC. But the X-factor matchup in this one will be Kahleah Copper versus Aerial Powers.

Including Copper’s 23-point showing in Chicago’s first-round win over Dallas on Thursday, the Sky are 6-2 when their leading scorer uses at least 25 percent of their possessions. When her usage rate drops below 17 percent, they are 0-4. Getting her looks will be important for Wade’s offense.

On the flip side, Powers has come on strong as of late after a slow start with her new team that was worsened by an early season injury. All four of Powers’ 20-point performances have come in Minnesota’s last six games.

Powers has struggled in her career against Chicago, shooting just 32 percent — a full 10 percentage points worse than her field goal percentage against other teams. But Reeve has unlocked something in her this month, so that should carry over into the playoffs.

Between that, Minnesota’s 8-3 record against the spread as home favorites, and Chicago’s 2-5 mark as road underdogs, I’m still taking Minnesota -4 in this one.

I’ll also go with the over on the 165.5-point total here. With all the usual small sample caveats, both of the teams’ regular season matchups broke 190.

Perhaps more relevantly, the Sky and the Lynx are second and third in the percentage of games in which they’ve hit the over, at 58 and 56 percent respectively, behind only the Aces and their top-ranked offense.

Chicago looked locked in defensively for much of its win over Dallas on Thursday, so if that team shows up again, then this over could be in trouble. But Minnesota is no Dallas offensively — Reeve’s group has been a well-oiled machine down the stretch. I’ll take my chances at 165.5.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

USWNT Vet Carli Lloyd Announces Pregnancy After ‘Rollercoaster’ IVF Journey

retired soccer player carli lloyd
Lloyd will welcome her first child with husband Brian Hollins this October. (Dennis Schneidler/USA TODAY Sports)

Longtime USWNT fixture Carli Lloyd took to Instagram Wednesday morning to announce that she’s pregnant with her first child. 

"Baby Hollins coming in October 2024!" she wrote. The caption framed a collaged image of baby clothes, an ultrasound photo, and syringes indicating what she described as a "rollercoaster" fertility journey.

In a Women’s Health story published in tandem with Lloyd’s post, the Fox Sports analyst and correspondent opened up about her struggles with infertility and the lengthy IVF treatments she kept hidden from the public eye.

"Soccer taught me how to work hard, persevere, be resilient, and never give up. I would do whatever it took to prepare, and usually when I prepared, I got results," Lloyd told Women’s Health’s Amanda Lucci. "But I found out that I didn’t know much about this world. I was very naive to think that we wouldn’t have any issues getting pregnant. And so it began."

Lloyd went on to discuss her road to pregnancy in great detail, sharing the highs and lows of the process and expressing gratitude for the care and support her family and medical team provided along the way. She rounded out the piece with a nod toward others navigating the same challenges, encouraging people to share their own pregnancy journeys, painful as they may be.

"My story is currently a happy one, but I know there are other women who are facing challenges in their pregnancy journey. I see you and I understand your pain," she said. "My hope is that more and more women will speak up about this topic, because their stories helped me. I also wish for more resources, funding, and education around fertility treatments. There is much to be done, and I hope I can play a role in helping."

The 41-year-old New Jersey native retired from professional soccer in 2021, closing out her decorated career with 316 international appearances, the second-most in USWNT history, in addition to 134 international goals. A legend on the field, Lloyd walked away from the game with two World Cups, two Olympic gold medals, and two FIFA Player of the Year awards.

Project ACL addresses injury epidemic in women’s football

arsenal's laura wienroither being helped off the field after tearing her acl
Arsenal's Laura Wienroither tore her ACL during a Champions League semifinal in May 2023. (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

On Tuesday, FIFPRO announced the launch of Project ACL, a three-year research initiative designed to address a steep uptick in ACL injuries across women's professional football.

Project ACL is a joint venture between FIFPRO, England’s Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA), Nike, and Leeds Beckett University. While the central case study will focus on England’s top-flight Women's Super League, the findings will be distributed around the world.

ACL tears are between two- and six-times more likely to occur in women footballers than men, according to The Guardian. And with both domestic and international programming on the rise for the women’s game, we’ve seen some of the sport's biggest names moved to the season-ending injury list with ACL-related knocks.

Soccer superstars like Vivianne Miedema, Beth Mead, Catarina Macario, Marta, and England captain Leah Williamson have all struggled with their ACLs in recent years, though all have since returned to the field. In January, Chelsea and Australia forward Sam Kerr was herself sidelined with the injury, kicking off a year of similar cases across women’s professional leagues. And just yesterday, the Spirit announced defender Anna Heilferty would miss the rest of the NWSL season with a torn ACL. The news comes less than two weeks after Bay FC captain Alex Loera went down with the same injury. 

Project ACL will closely study players in the WSL, monitoring travel, training, and recovery practices to look for trends that could be used to prevent the injury in the future. Availability of sports science and medical resources within individual clubs will be taken into account throughout the process.

ACL injuries in women's football have long outpaced the same injury in the men's game, but resources for specialized prevention and treatment still lag behind. Investment in achieving a deeper, more specialized understanding of the problem should hopefully alleviate the issue both on and off the field.

USC enters superteam era with transfer portal gains 

Oregon State transfer and USC recruit Talia von Oelhoffen at 2024 NCAA women's tournament
Oregon State transfer Talia von Oelhoffen adds fuel to USC's 2025 NCAA title dreams. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

With recent transfers Talia von Oelhoffen and Kiki Iriafen joining first-team All-American JuJu Watkins and the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class at USC next season, the Trojans look to transition from an up-and-coming squad to a legitimate title contender. 

Former Oregon State graduate student von Oelhoffen is the latest collegiate talent to commit to the program, announcing her transfer Monday via ESPN. She follows ex-Stanford leading-scorer Iriafen in the jump to the pair’s one-time Pac-12 rival.

The 5-foot-11 Washington native was a two-time All-Pac-12 guard during her time at Oregon State. But after the recent dissolution of the Pac-12, the Corvallis side found themselves without a permanent home conference going forward. Many big name players opted to take their skill elsewhere as a result, with von Oelhoffen’s fellow ex-Beaver Raegan Beers announcing her own departure to Oklahoma on Monday.

According to DraftKings, USC is now tied with UConn for the second-best betting odds to win the 2025 NCAA women’s tournament. Dawn Staley’s tested South Carolina side, poised for a repeat performance, holds down the number one spot.

Last year, LSU loaded up in the transfer portal after beating Iowa to win the 2023 national championship. The Tigers were clear favorites coming into the 2023-24 season, but were bounced in the Elite Eight by Caitlin Clark’s Hawkeyes. Shortly thereafter, star transfer Hailey Van Lith opted to transfer a second time, this time signing with TCU. 

Yet while history proves that an excess of star power doesn’t always translate to on-court chemistry, on paper, USC sure looks ready to hold their own — in 2025 and beyond.

U.S., Mexico drop bid to host 2027 Women’s World Cup 

uswnt fans cheer at 2023 fifa women's world cup in australia
USWNT fans will have to settle for cheering on their home team from abroad in 2027. (Brad Smith/USSF/Getty Images for USSF)

The United States and Mexico have withdrawn their joint bid to host the 2027 Women’s World Cup, per a Monday afternoon release from U.S. Soccer and the Mexican Football Federation.

According to the statement, they will instead focus on developing a "more equitable" bid for the 2031 tournament, with the ultimate goal of "eliminating investment disparities" between the men’s and women’s tournaments.

The federations went on to cite the upcoming 2026 Men’s World Cup in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico as an opportunity to build support for local infrastructure, improve audience engagement, and scale up media and partnership deals in preparation to "host a record-breaking tournament in 2031."

"Hosting a World Cup tournament is a huge undertaking — and having additional time to prepare allows us to maximize its impact across the globe," said U.S. Soccer President Cindy Parlow Cone. "Shifting our bid will enable us to host a record-breaking Women’s World Cup in 2031 that will help to grow and raise the level of the women’s game both here at home as well as across the globe."

The decision leaves just Brazil and a joint bid from Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands in the running for the 2027 host spot. Brazil — the rumored frontrunner — has never hosted a Women’s World Cup, while Germany hosted the 2011 tournament as a solo venture. 

Furthermore, this postponement doesn’t mean the U.S. is a shoo-in for 2031, as it's been previously reported that 2022 UEFA Women's EURO host England is considering their own Women's World Cup bid. FIFA is scheduled to confirm the winning bid after the FIFA Congress votes on May 17th.

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