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Final Four betting guide: Odds, picks for NCAA championship weekend

Haley Jones and Stanford’s championship odds are undervalued on some sportsbooks. (Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Four teams, three matchups, two game days and one weekend. That’s what we have left of the 2021-22 college basketball season.

It’s also what we have left to bet on.

With every major regulated sportsbook finally offering women’s college basketball lines, we have several options to choose from. Let’s break down how, where and what to bet when it comes to this weekend’s Final Four.

Betting options

For an overview of the basic types of bets you can place and how to make sense of the numbers, you can check out our primer from last fall. While that was for the WNBA, the lines and odds work the same way for any basketball game at any level.

If you’re interested in some slightly more advanced options, we’ll break those down here. If you’d rather stick to the basics, or if you’re already well versed in these options, feel free to skip to the game analysis below.

Every sportsbook is a little bit different, so not all of these will be available everywhere. Books that now offer women’s college basketball lines include PointsBet, BetRivers, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM and WynnBet. Each of the following options can be found on at least one or two of those books.

Alternate lines

Every sportsbook will set the main spread at exactly or approximately equal odds on both sides, but if you’d rather bet on a different spread, some sportsbooks will allow you to do that at different odds. The less likely the bet is to win, the more it pays if it does.

Most sportsbooks have South Carolina favored over Louisville by about eight points. A bet on South Carolina -8 would be around -110 odds, but you could also bet on South Carolina -10 at longer (higher paying) odds or South Carolina -6 at shorter odds. South Carolina is less likely to win by double digits than they are to win by at least eight, so a bet on South Carolina -10 would pay even more if it wins.

These alternate lines are often available for game totals as well.

Half and quarter lines

These are also offered by some sportsbooks, and the concept is pretty simple – they work the same way as the moneylines, spreads and totals for the full game, except only for a specific quarter or half.

If you want to bet on South Carolina but are worried that their 269th-ranked free-throw shooting won’t hold up enough in the final minute for them to preserve an eight-point lead, maybe it’s worth betting on them to win the first half rather than winning or covering the spread for the whole game.

Live bets

Every major U.S. sportsbook has been offering this option as we’ve gotten deep into the tournament. Live betting is just betting in the middle of the game rather than before it starts. Because the lines are constantly changing throughout the game depending on the score and time remaining, sometimes it can be hard to place a bet before the line moves again, so this usually works best during a dead ball or a timeout.

The most value in live betting is often when there is a game situation that the sportsbooks may not be accounting for. Injuries are an unfortunate one, but factors like players fouling out or teams going on a run after a shift in strategy can also lead to good live betting opportunities.

Player props

Player prop bets are just bets on a specific stat for one player – typically something common like points, rebounds or assists. They work the same way as an over/under bet for the game: You bet on whether that player will go over or under the line in that particular category.

For example, in Monday’s Elite Eight game between Louisville and Michigan, FanDuel had the line at 18.5 for Naz Hillmon’s points scored. That means a bet on the over would have won if Hillmon had scored at least 19 points, but because she finished with 18, the under won.

Most “real” sportsbooks don’t yet offer player props on the women’s side (which is why it’s important to keep pushing for equal betting options). But PrizePicks, which brands itself as a daily fantasy site rather than a sportsbook, offers what essentially amount to player props on women’s college games. And as of the Elite Eight, FanDuel and DraftKings began offering some player props as well.

Final Four breakdown

Now that we have a sense for how and where to bet on these games, let’s take a look at where the value is.

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Destanni Henderson and South Carolina enter the Final Four as the No. 1 overall seed. (Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

South Carolina vs. Louisville

We’ve reached the point of the season where everyone remaining is a team that has been a good bet all season. These two teams have covered quite a few spreads, as have the two in the other matchup Friday, so picking against one of them is tough.

Ultimately, this one may come down to the Cardinals’ defensive game plan. It’s no secret that the way to stop South Carolina is to pack the paint – outside of Destanni Henderson, the Gamecocks don’t have outside shooting that can come close to matching their dominance inside.

Easier said than done, however. We’ve seen other teams try this and fail for various reasons. Creighton did an excellent job of swarming Boston and company, but when you’re giving up that many inches, sometimes it just doesn’t matter.

If there’s anyone who can make it work, though, it’s Louisville and Jeff Walz. Remember when they knocked off the Oregon team that had just beaten Team USA and was supposed to go 40-0, largely thanks to Walz’s uniquely brilliant defensive scheme? In that one, he had Kylee Shook, his rim protector, matched up with Oregon guard Minyon Moore, who wasn’t a 3-point threat. That allowed Shook to freely roam the paint, while Moore didn’t hurt them from the perimeter.

The personnel and the opponent are much different here, of course, but the defensive brilliance is the same. Expect Louisville’s havoc-wreaking backcourt to apply enough pressure to make it difficult for South Carolina to get the ball inside in the first place, which could neutralize the Gamecocks’ height advantage.

Louisville will have to keep them off the glass as well, but at the current line of South Carolina -8, it’s worth taking a shot on the Cardinals to do that. Every game this time of year seems to come down to the final minute, so a three-possession spread is pretty wide.

Stanford vs. UConn

The heartbreaking reality of betting this game is that it may come down to the injury to Dorka Juhász. While Juhász isn’t the star that, say, Paige Bueckers is, the impact of her absence will be substantial.

When Juhász went down Monday during UConn’s Elite Eight win over NC State, the Huskies were up 25-18 with a chance to extend the lead at the free-throw line. That was midway through the second quarter, at which point Elissa Cunane had managed just three points.

Cunane scored 15 of her 18 from that point on as the Wolfpack went on a run to get back in the game and turn it into a thriller. Without Juhász, the Huskies are left with only Aaliyah Edwards and Olivia Nelson-Ododa as true post players in the rotation. That problem is magnified by the fact that both are foul prone and, at times, have trouble staying on the court.

Edwards fouled out of that Elite Eight game, and Nelson-Ododa had to play several minutes with four fouls. We saw Cunane get a few easy buckets at the rim late in the game, when Nelson-Ododa was forced to be less aggressive defensively on the interior.

While Stanford doesn’t have a back-to-the-basket threat at Cunane’s level, they do love to score at the hoop via layups and back cuts out of their Princeton offense. If Edwards and Nelson-Ododa get into foul trouble in this one, UConn may be forced to go small and sacrifice rim protection and rebounding.

Most books opened with UConn favored by 1.5, but that has already reversed in several places. Even with a line of Stanford -1.5, the Cardinal are still a solid bet in this one.

Championship futures

There is perhaps no better illustration of the value of “line shopping” (searching on various sportsbooks for the best odds on a particular bet) than in the championship odds.

Some lines have moved since that post, but there are still plenty of discrepancies from one book to another, so it’s worth checking around to see where you can find the best odds on the team you want to bet on.

As far as value, South Carolina is the clear favorite and should have over a 50 percent chance to win it all. The +115 odds above were from Caesars, and those have moved, but FanDuel still has that line at +100. If you can find the Gamecocks at plus odds, don’t overthink it, just take it.

Stanford is the other team that seems to be undervalued in a lot of places. Several books still have Stanford with longer odds than UConn, despite the fact that most of those same books also have Stanford as slight favorites over UConn.

Don’t bet on Stanford at anything +300 or worse, but if you can find +400 or better, then hop on the defending champs.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Cameron Brink likes Caitlin Clark for 2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year

Cameron Brink poses with Caitlin Clark at 2024 wnba draft in new york
Cameron Brink poses with fellow draftee — and possible WNBA ROY —Caitlin Clark. (Photo by Emily Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images)

Cameron Brink already has her rookie of the year pick for the upcoming WNBA season, and it’s Indiana-bound star Caitlin Clark

In the latest edition of Kelley on the Street, host Kelley O'Hara caught up with Brink in New York hours before the Stanford phenom went No. 2 overall to the Los Angeles Sparks at the 2024 WNBA Draft. When O’Hara asked who would win the WNBA's rookie of the year, she answered without pause.

"Caitlin Clark," she said, while a fan commented that she thought Brink would take home the award. Brink later added that the extra foul granted to WNBA players will be "good for me."

"I hope it’s me," Charisma Osborne, who was later drafted by the Phoenix Mercury, said when asked her ROY prediction. "But, I don’t know — we’ll see."

Watch more of Kelley on the Street:

Dash winger Maria Sanchez confirms trade request a day shy of NWSL deadline

María Sanchez of Houston Dash during a NWSL game
In December, Sanchez signed a new three-year contract with the club worth $1.5 million including bonuses and an option year. (Photo by Marcus Ingram/Getty Images)

Maria Sanchez issued a statement on Thursday, confirming recent reports that she has requested a trade from the Houston Dash. 

In it, she revealed that the club has been aware of the request "since late March."

"This has all taken a toll and isn’t an easy thing to talk about, but I want to confirm that I’ve requested an immediate trade," she wrote. "My expectations and reasons have been clear. I trust that my current club’s management will honor my decision in a timely manner and proceed with accepting a trade."

"I’m eager to refocus and dive back into what I love most: playing football," she concluded.

Reports of Sanchez's trade request first surfaced on ESPN last week, and were later confirmed by multiple sources. 

In December of last year, Sanchez signed a three-year contract with the Dash valued at $1.5 million including bonuses and an option year. It was the largest contract in NWSL history at the time — a figure that would be eclipsed by multiple contracts in the following months. 

Sanchez spent the offseason as a restricted free agent, meaning that Houston could match any other team's offer to retain her rights. Should the Dash trade Sanchez, her current contract terms would remain intact, limiting potential buyers to teams able to afford to take on an inking of that size.

The Dash has yet to address the trade, instead reiterating to ESPN that Sanchez is "under contract, a choice she made in free agency at the end of 2023." 

Both the NWSL trade window and transfer window close tonight, April 19th, at 12 a.m. ET. The window will stay closed through the next 11 regular season games, reopening on August 1st, 2024.

Seattle Storm debut state-of-the-art $64 million practice facility

Jewell Loyd #24 of the Seattle Storm during warms up during practice on July 11, 2020 at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida
Jewell Loyd, seen here practicing at Florida's IMG Academy, and her team are in for a major upgrade this season. (Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images)

The four-time league champion Seattle Storm unveiled their new practice facility on Thursday, with Storm co-owner Lisa Brummel dubbing Interbay's Seattle Storm Center for Basketball Performance the team’s "new home."

"It's just such a special space," Brummel told Fox 13 Seattle. "I think when the players get here, it's gonna be overwhelming."

The sprawling 50,000-square-foot, $64 million property is just the second designated practice facility to be designed and built expressly for a WNBA team, with the Storm further noting that 85% of all design and engineering team members involved in the project's construction were women and people of color. The finished product holds two professional indoor courts, two 3x3 outdoor courts, a state-of-the-art locker room, and players' lounge, plus designated areas for strength and conditioning, kitchen, dining, and nutrition, and recovery. 

"This facility reflects our commitment to providing our athletes an exceptional environment that supports their growth, health, and performance," said Storm co-owner Ginny Gilder in an official team release. "It’s built for women, by women, embodying our dedication to leading the way in professional women’s sports."

For their part, the team can't wait to make the faciilty their own.

"It's amazing," Storm guard Jewell Loyd told Fox 13. "Not having to drive everywhere around, knowing you have access anytime of the day to get into the gym, to workout." 

Head coach Noelle Quinn said she predicts the team is "never going to leave this building."

"Which is a good thing for me," she continued. "You talk about having an edge in performance. We want our athletes to not only perform on the court, but get whatever they need."

All of the Storm's staff and operations will now live under one roof, and the team also has plans to launch a youth basketball program operating out of the building.

Mystics relocate game to accommodate Caitlin Clark fans

Maya Caldwell, Erica Wheeler, and Lexie Hull of the Indiana Fever celebrate Caitlin Clark
Get ready — Caitlin Clark is coming to town. (Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Caitlin Clark effect is quickly making its mark on the big leagues, as WNBA host teams around the country rush to upgrade their Fever games to larger arenas in order to accommodate surging ticket sales.

With Clark mere weeks away from her Indiana Fever debut, both the Las Vegas Aces and Washington Mystics have officially relocated their scheduled home games with head coach Christie Sides' squad. On Thursday, the Mystics became the latest to adjust their plans, moving their June 7th matchup from Entertainment & Sports Arena in Southwest DC to the more centrally located — and much larger — Capital One Arena "due to unprecedented demand."

The Mystics home court's capacity taps out at 4,200, while Capital One Arena — home to the Wizards, Capitals, and Georgetown Hoya's Men's Basketball — can fit nearly five times that crowd at some 20,000 spectators.

"The move to Capital One Arena will allow for additional fans in the stands as well as premium hospitality options, including Suites and the all-new all-inclusive courtside Hennessy Lofts," the team announced via Thursday's press release.

The Aces were one of the first teams to switch venues, aiming to take on the Indiana Fever in front of as many as 20,000 fans inside T-Mobile Arena on July 2nd. That’s a sizable a boost from their home venue, which holds just 12,000.

For those still planning to face the Fever in their home arenas, ticket prices have skyrocketed. Previously scheduled construction has already forced the LA Sparks to relocate their first five games — including their May 24th clash with the Fever — to Long Beach State's Walter Pyramid. The temporary venue is quite the downsize, holding just 4,000 in comparison to Crypto.com Arena's near-19,000. As of Friday, the get-in price for that game started around $400.

Despite fans launching a Change.org petition urging relocation, the Chicago Sky say they're unable to move their June 23rd Fever meeting from Wintrust Arena's 10,000-seat facility to the 23,500-seat United Center due to a concert. Tickets for that game start around $325 as of Friday.

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