Last year, the biggest story leading into March Madness involved ESPN leaking the tournament bracket hours before the official announcement show. Fans were furious, as for so many programs, their moment of celebration — huddled together around a monitor, screaming and cheering as their seed was revealed — had been taken away prematurely.

Oh, how good we had it, when that was the biggest off-court headline.

The bracket is sacred in college hoops, but like so many things this year, it has been left empty by the coronavirus. No one is going dancing. On April 3rd and 5th, Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, the site of the now-cancelled Final Four, will be completely silent. The bracket, the court, the concessions stands, each of the 18,500 seats, the team benches — all empty. There will be no championship-clinching shots. No nets cut down in exuberant celebration.

In a different time, in a different world, the Final Four would be its usual culmination of an incredible year in college basketball. Instead, we’re left to speculate as to what might have been. But though we’ll never know how things would have actually played out, that doesn’t mean we can’t make educated guesses.

In lieu of an actual Final Four, we’ll have to settle with imagining one. And thanks to Charlie Creme over at ESPN, while we may not have an official bracket, we have the next closest thing.

In this version, South Carolina is the top seed in the Greenville regional, while Oregon is No. 1 in the Portland region. The Dallas regional is led by Baylor, and Maryland is the first seed in Fort Wayne. And while the wonderful people over at FiveThirtyEight and ESPN have used more mathematical, scientific, and data-driven techniques to determine a winner in their own simulated brackets, my approach is grounded in primarily feel. After all, it’s March Madness. It wouldn’t be any fun if a computer could predict it.

The top four seeds were truly in a class of their own this season, so I have no problem saying they would have all made it to the Final Four. Here’s how they got there, and what happened next:

Oregon continues its national ascension

While UC Davis is a new opponent, Oregon has seen its offense run before — by Stanford — and would have had no trouble blowing past the Aggies in the first round. The 3-point shooting of Erin Boley, Jaz Shelley and Taylor Chavez would easily make up for any down performance from Oregon’s big three in the subsequent rounds, while a rematch with UConn wasn’t scaring anyone in green. On the road in Gampel Pavilion, Oregon handily won their first meeting with the Huskies this year, and in Portland, with a Final Four berth on the line, the outcome would have been even more lopsided.

"This may not be duplicated anywhere in the country, what we just witnessed."

Thank you, Ducks, for an incredible ride. #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/vXy2pwHmDj

— Oregon Women’s Basketball (@OregonWBB) March 26, 2020

Maryland shoots its way to New Orleans

Maryland was destined to reach the Big Easy. I could entertain the argument that UConn was better than Maryland, but alas the Huskies were doomed to meet Oregon, while Maryland’s toughest competition was either No. 2 Louisville or No. 3 Arizona.

From a season-opening 119-56 win over Wagner through a Big Ten clinching beatdown of Ohio State, the Terrapins relied heavily on their nationally fourth-ranked offense. The tournament would have been no different. It’s easy to imagine Taylor Mikesell’s 3-point prowess bailing the Terps out of a close early round game, while freshman Ashley Owusu would have continued to play beyond her age in dishing out double-digit assists. Behind an underrated defense, Maryland would have won their 21st straight game in the Elite Eight as they advanced to New Orleans.

Baylor is all business

Baylor followed up last year’s national championship with another dominant regular season. And while they capped off the year with a surprise upset loss to Iowa State, it’s easy to believe that such a defeat would have been just the motivation the Lady Bears needed to spur their run to the Final Four.

Baylor has won its last five first round games by an average of 53.4 points, and against UMKC, nothing was going to change there. In the second round, I’d have bet money on senior Juicy Landrum hosting a personal going-away party from beyond the arc as she closed out her career at Baylor’s Ferrell Center. And in a potential Elite Eight matchup with Stanford, I’m certain Baylor’s nation-leading defense would have shown up in a big way to bottle up the Cardinal shooters, ensuring senior Lauren Cox a second straight trip to the Final Four.

South Carolina’s freshman continue to deliver

South Carolina led the nation in just two categories: blocked shots and win-loss percentage. The bottom line is that Dawn Staley’s crew just does not lose. Both Jackson State and Florida Gulf Coast would have found that out the hard way in the opening two rounds. And while Missouri State might have won their rematch with Oregon State, the Bears would have been no match for South Carolina’s stud trio of freshmen. An elite eight matchup with UCLA looks intriguing on paper, but outmatched on the inside, the Bruins would have ultimately been run over by the Gamecocks.

Undisputed.#SCWomanUphttps://t.co/M15w8cqFMP pic.twitter.com/rbGDH8kGf9

— GamecockWBB (@GamecockWBB) March 17, 2020

Semifinal: Oregon gets revenge

Since last year’s semi-final, Baylor and Oregon have each lost twice, Oregon to Arizona State, a seven seed, and Louisville, a second seed, and Baylor to Iowa State, a nine seed, and South Carolina, a one seed. But that is where the similarities end.

In the year since they last met, Oregon beat Team USA (convincingly). Sabrina Ionescu recorded eight regular season triple-doubles, Ruthy Hebard led the team in scoring for much of the season, and Satou Sabally had such a good junior year, she announced she’d be leaving school early to enter the WNBA draft. No other team in college had a trio as talented as these three.

In the 2019 Final Four, Kalani Brown and Lauren Cox combined to miss eight shots combined. Ionescu, meanwhile, missed 18, and her pick-and-roll partner Hebard was held to just four points while being defended by Brown.

It’s hard to imagine Ionescu, the unanimous AP Player of the Year, repeating such a dreadful performance. Hebard has likewise only been held to that low of a scoring output once since then (against Stanford, and she responded by going for 28 a few nights later). And while Brown might have made the drive out to Louisiana for the rematch, the Atlanta Dream forward would have been forced to watch from the stands as her alma mater tried to contain Oregon’s stars.

The deciding stat: Oregon was 7th in the country this year in 3-pointers per game; Baylor was 297th. And with Ionescu leading the charge from beyond the arc, this year’s matchup is going the way of the Ducks.

Semifinal: South Carolina outclasses Maryland

A lot has changed since the second game of the year, when the Gamecocks beat the Terps 63-54 — but not enough has changed in Maryland’s favor. South Carolina shot 31.7% that day and still won by nine, taking full advantage of 30 trips to the foul line. Since then, South Carolina has not shot lower than 35% in a game, averaging 47% on the season.

Both teams were led in scoring by their respective freshmen, but at this point in the season, South Carolina’s rookies are all battle-tested veterans. No one would have been surprised to see both Aliyah Boston and Zia Cooke top 20 points against the Terps. Boston’s expertise on the glass would have also kept Maryland from second chance opportunities while securing South Carolina more than its fair share.

I’d expect South Carolina to go into the half up by double digits, before Owusu leads Maryland on a furious third quarter run. The game is close heading into the fourth, but that’s where Dawn Staley’s championship experience comes into play. Behind the veteran shooting and presence of Tyasha Harris, the Gamecocks eventually pull away, setting up…

National Championship: overtime thriller

The two best teams in college basketball meet in the final. New Orleans, which hosted one of only two national championships to ever require overtime, now gets a second. It’s just that close.

This is the matchup almost every neutral fan wanted to see. For Oregon, it’s a chance to make history and resolve what Ionescu famously called the team’s “unfinished business.” For South Carolina, its a chance to establish a dynasty. Mikiah Herbert Harrigan and Tyasha Harris have played for, and won, a national championship, while Oregon only reached the Final Four for the first time last year.

The Gamecocks’ experience shows in the first quarter, as South Carolina builds a five point lead, their freshmen entirely unbothered by the bright lights…

Ducks fans are nervous, but Ionescu isn’t. In her essay “Dear Oregon Basketball,” she talked about the fear that the sky-high expectations of this season had initially induced. Two things settled her down. The first was her teammates. The second was a nod Kobe Bryant gave to her, when he told her that she made the right choice in returning for her senior season.

When Ionescu visited Stanford for a Pac-12 matchup after speaking at Kobe’s memorial in Los Angeles, she looked like a ghost in the first quarter, hitting just 1-of-3 shots. Then, in the second quarter, she went 2-for-2. In the third, she made 3-of-6 (while also hauling in her historic 1,000th career rebound). And in the fourth, Ionescu scored nine, giving a master class in embracing the privilege of confronting pressure. Compared to that day’s roller coaster, this national championship is just another game of hoops.

The second half goes back and forth, until Oregon takes a two-point lead with 15 seconds to play. Staley calls timeout and draws up a play for Boston, who finishes inside at the rim with just seconds remaining. Ionescu gets off a last second heave, and though it’s on target, her effort clangs off the iron. Overtime.

In the extra period, South Carolina’s Harris experience once again propel’s an early surge, but the Ducks claw back. Cooke puts her team up by two with seconds remaining, but she leaves Oregon with the last possession. Ionescu calls for an isolation, dribbling the clock down. South Carolina’s defense pushes out at the last moment, forcing Ionescu into a deep 3-pointer to win it all…

And a second chance is all she needs.

Swoosh. Ducks win.

After trailing by as many as 18 points in the first half, the Minnesota Lynx stormed back to a 95-93 overtime win in Brooklyn on Thursday to steal Game 1 of the WNBA finals on the road. Minnesota's return from 18 points down ties the greatest comeback in WNBA history, ironically first set by the Liberty in Game 2 of the 1999 finals.

The Liberty came out swinging early in front of a raucous Barclays Center crowd, scoring 32 points in the first quarter as the Lynx suddenly found themselves in danger of becoming overwhelmed. But Minnesota kept chipping away at the lead, reducing New York's advantage to single digits at halftime.

As the teams traded runs in the second half, it appeared as if New York would to be able to hold off a late charge by the Lynx, leading by 15 points with 5:20 remaining in the game. But once again, Minnesota remained calm and went on a run of their own.

"I think it defines our team in terms of being able to get through difficult times," Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve said after the game. "That's what we are talking about: You have to be mentally tough and resilient."

Guard Courtney Williams made the four-point play to give Minnesota an unlikely one-point lead with seconds remaining, and Breanna Stewart split two free throws to send the game into overtime.

After a slow start to the overtime period, Lynx star Napheesa Collier's final midrange jumper proved to be the difference, sending Minnesota into Game 2 with a 1-0 advantage. The Lynx are the first team in WNBA postseason history to win a game after trailing by 15+ points in the final five minutes of regulation in 184 games.

New York center Jonquel Jones led all scorers with 24 points, but Minnesota got the most out of the trio of Collier (21 points), Williams (23 points), and Kayla McBride (22 points).

New York's chance to bounce back

The Liberty are now 0-6 in Game 1 of the WNBA finals, and will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday at 3pm ET (ABC). "This is a series, and we wanted to really win for home court [advantage]. But the beauty is we have another game on Sunday and we'll be ready," Stewart said after the game.

For the Liberty, the pressure will be on. No WNBA team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five playoff series, something New York knows well. The Liberty sent two-time defending champion Las Vegas home in the semifinals after building a similar insurmountable advantage.

"We're disappointed," Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello said. "We have to be better. We're a better team than what we showed today."

After missing the free throw that would have sealed the game for New York, and missing a key layup in overtime, Stewart is also prepping for a personal bounce back. "I feel like knowing my teammates, and that everyone has confidence in me is important," she said. "It's kind of like, on to the next, and still making sure I'm aggressive any time on the court. Obviously as a player, it's very frustrating."

Following Sunday's matchup, the series will head to Minnesota for Game 3 and a possible Game 4. New York will be very motivated to stretch the series as long as possible.

"We can't play to not lose, and I think we started to play [like that] a little bit," said Sabrina Ionescu.

WNBA announces draft, postseason infrastructure for 2025

Prior to Game 1, league commissioner Cathy Engelbert announced plans for the 2025 college draft, as well as a new structure for the postseason. The 2025 draft lottery will take place on Nov. 17, as the LA Sparks, Dallas Wings, Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky find out who will hold the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.

Expansion side the Golden State Valkyries will officially pick fifth in all three rounds of the 2025 draft, Engelbert also announced on Thursday. The Valkyries made their own bit of splashy news earlier in the day, announcing Aces assistant Natalie Nakase as the team's inaugural head coach.

The WNBA will also be making changes to the postseason starting in 2025, in reaction to the growing appetite for more games in more home markets.

The league will be expanding the finals to a best-of-seven series instead of a best-of-five starting in 2025. The first round will also go from a home-home-away cadence for the higher seed to a 1-1-1 structure, meaning all playoff teams will be guaranteed a postseason home game next year.

In today’s episode, Claire ponders another Sun postseason exit, and the risks and rewards of blowing things up in the pursuit of playoff glory.

She then previews the finals between the Lynx and the Liberty, with one key element she believes will earn one of the teams a title. She closes with some of the NWSL news of the midweek, which feels destined to shape the postseason and beyond.

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes in women’s sports. This is the weekly rundown you’ve been missing, covering the USWNT, NWSL, WNBA, college hoops, and whatever else is popping off in women’s sports each week. Special guest appearances with the biggest names in women’s sports make The Late Sub a must-listen for every fan. Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women’s Sports newsletter for more.

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With the 2024 NWSL Shield firmly in Orlando's hands, attention turns to the final three available playoff spots up for grabs as the regular season turns into the home stretch. The Chicago Red Stars, currently in sixth, could become the next team to clinch a postseason berth with a win against the surging Gotham on Saturday at 4pm ET (Paramount+).
 
Only Houston has been eliminated from postseason contention thus far, but Portland (7th) and Bay FC (8th) will try to hold off those below the playoff line to better their odds at a quarterfinal appearance. Racing Louisville appears poised to challenge for their own spot, sitting only three points below eighth place.

Both Portland and Bay FC will have their work cut out for them, as the Thorns take on first-place Orlando on Friday at 10pm ET (Prime), and Bay FC battles fourth-place Kansas City on Saturday at 10pm ET (ION). Amidst a losing skid, Portland is already looking toward the future after announcing this week that general manager Karina Leblanc will be transitioning out of her role at the end of the 2024 season.

Standings stragglers look to ward off elimination

With only three regular season matches left, Seattle, Angel City, San Diego, and Utah will all face elimination scenarios this weekend.

LA's playoff hopes hang by a thread after a three-point deduction due to a salary cap violation, but forward Alyssa Thompson is keeping the dream of the postseason alive. Thompson has scored five goals and registered two assists in her last seven NWSL games, including a crucial assist in a win against the Seattle Reign last weekend.

Six points off the playoff pace with three games to go in the regular season, Angel City will need Thompson at the height of her powers in their matchup against North Carolina on Saturday at 7:30pm ET (ION).

Andi Sullivan suffers season-ending ACL tear

The Washington Spirit announced on Wednesday that captain Andi Sullivan suffered an ACL tear in the team's loss to the Orlando Pride on Sunday, and will miss the rest of the 2024 season. A Spirit stalwart, Sullivan started all 21 regular season matches she appeared in for the club in 2024, tallying two goals.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Andi Sullivan (@sunnysulli)

Sulivan joins a growing number of injured Spirit contributors, including Croix Bethune (out for the season), Trinity Rodman, Casey Krueger, and Ouleye Sarr. The Spirit will take on Racing Louisville on Sunday at 5pm ET.

The MVP race heats up

With KC Current forward Temwa Chawinga running away with the 2024 NWSL golden boot, is there still intrigue to be found in this year's MVP race? Chawinga won NWSL Player of the Month for September, while forward Barbra Banda continued to excel with the unbeaten, Shield-winning Orlando Pride.

Banda's goal contributions are slightly off Chawinga's pace, with 13 goals and six assists to Chawinga's 18 goals and six assists. Chawinga leads the league in goals per 90 minutes, but Banda holds the title in goals and assists per 90 minutes, while both players comfortably lead the league in xG and npxG per 90.

It's been a year for blazing offense in the NWSL, personified by Chawinga and Banda's excellence. But voters will have to decide if individual contributions, playmaking, and total team success are a bigger part of the picture when deciding who will walk away with 2024 NWSL MVP.

Welcome back to Fast Friends with Kelley O'Hara and Lisa Leslie!

In today's episode, our hosts preview Game 1 of the WNBA Finals between the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty, and how Liberty center Jonquel Jones could be the final piece to her team's title hopes.

"Jonquel Jones, for the Liberty to walk away holding that trophy, she's got to show up bigger and better," says Leslie. "She's got to be dominant in the paint, she's got to get those boards, and she's got to block some shots. She's got to play out of her mind."

In the world of soccer, Kelley discusses the special importance of winning an NWSL shield, and makes a few bold postseason predictions (sorry Orlando and Kansas City!)

Coming off the success of JWS's Olympic commentary show The Gold Standard, Fast Friends features two legendary athletes serving up insider insights and unique takes on the biggest stories in women's sports every week.

Subscribe to Just Women's Sports on YouTube to never miss an episode.