The NCAA Tournament begins Wednesday with the First Four, and the first round tips off Friday.

Yet while select teams rose to the top during the regular season, some of these will lose out in the tournament. Upsets happen, in spite of high seeding and home-court advantage. It be March Madness otherwise.

Just Women’s Sports takes a look at which top-4 teams are the most vulnerable.

No. 3 LSU

LSU may have finished their season at 28-2. But while the Tigers ran  amok in the SEC during the regular season, they have weaknesses.

For one, they couldn’t manage to hang with the No. 1 team in the nation in their February matchup against South Carolina. The game proved a failed test for an LSU team with a nonconference schedule chock-full of tough opponents such as… (checks notes) Bellarmine and Mississippi Valley.

Then Tigers ran into a roadblock in the SEC Tournament semifinals in Tennessee, which exposed LSU’s vulnerabilities and mounted an improbable comeback to advance to the title game. LSU faces Hawai’i in the first-round, and the Rainbow Warriors could be a tough test. And if LSU advances to the second round, it could face No. 6 seed Michigan, a battle-tested team coming out of the Big Ten.

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No. 4 Tennessee

In all likelihood, Tennessee will advance past No. 13 seed Saint Louis in the first round. But after that, the Vols could run up against No. 5 seed Iowa State. The Cyclones are not only Big 12 tournament champions, but they also boast star player Ashley Joens – who any team in this tournament will find difficult to contain.

Tennessee has its own star in Rickea Jackson, making the possibility of this second-round matchup very enticing. Still, it makes Tennessee susceptible to an early exit.

No. 3 Duke

There’s no telling what kind of run Duke will have in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Some thought that December’s win over NC State was the Blue Devils’ coming out party. But the ACC remained chaotic throughout the season, and Duke received its share of bumps and bruises – in particular, their 58-37 loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament might leave sour taste in the Blue Devils’ mouths as they prepare to face Iona in the first round.

But they’re also the team that put 68 points on Boston College while only allowing the Eagles to score 27. And they also beat Notre Dame back on Feb. 5. Their season-ending loss to UNC was redeemed by a win over the Tar Heels in the ACC Tournament, which showcases how hot and cold this team can be – particularly as they approached the end of the season.

If the Blue Devils can bring their best in the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament, they’ll be hard to beat. But there’s no guaranteeing that an Iona or a Colorado won’t send Duke packing.

No. 3 Notre Dame

Notre Dame is one of the biggest question marks in this year’s NCAA Tournament, as there’s no telling when they’ll get star player Olivia Miles back from injury – if they do at all.

And if Irish advance past Southern Utah in the first round, they’ll likely face Creighton in the second round. Yes, that Creighton, the same team that upended Iowa in the Sweet 16 last year. The same Creighton who almost beat UConn in February and battled against other top-tier Big East teams like Villanova and Marquette. A Notre Dame team with Olivia Miles going up against Creighton could be one of the best second-round matchups of the tournament. Without Miles, though, the Irish could head home early.

No. 2 UConn

Can UConn stay healthy? That’s the biggest question facing the Huskies in this year’s NCAA Tournament. If they can, then a run to the Final Four isn’t improbable, even in a tough region. Baylor could prove more difficult than anticipated, and Ohio State is a battle-tested No. 3 seed who has also faced injury issues this season but is also once again healthy.

Having Azzi Fudd and Caroline Ducharme back in the lineup helps the Huskies’ chances, and both looked good during the team’s Big East tournament title run. But as the story has been all season, there’s no telling what type of injury this team could face next.

After trailing by as many as 18 points in the first half, the Minnesota Lynx stormed back to a 95-93 overtime win in Brooklyn on Thursday to steal Game 1 of the WNBA finals on the road. Minnesota's return from 18 points down ties the greatest comeback in WNBA history, ironically first set by the Liberty in Game 2 of the 1999 finals.

The Liberty came out swinging early in front of a raucous Barclays Center crowd, scoring 32 points in the first quarter as the Lynx suddenly found themselves in danger of becoming overwhelmed. But Minnesota kept chipping away at the lead, reducing New York's advantage to single digits at halftime.

As the teams traded runs in the second half, it appeared as if New York would to be able to hold off a late charge by the Lynx, leading by 15 points with 5:20 remaining in the game. But once again, Minnesota remained calm and went on a run of their own.

"I think it defines our team in terms of being able to get through difficult times," Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve said after the game. "That's what we are talking about: You have to be mentally tough and resilient."

Guard Courtney Williams made the four-point play to give Minnesota an unlikely one-point lead with seconds remaining, and Breanna Stewart split two free throws to send the game into overtime.

After a slow start to the overtime period, Lynx star Napheesa Collier's final midrange jumper proved to be the difference, sending Minnesota into Game 2 with a 1-0 advantage. The Lynx are the first team in WNBA postseason history to win a game after trailing by 15+ points in the final five minutes of regulation in 184 games.

New York center Jonquel Jones led all scorers with 24 points, but Minnesota got the most out of the trio of Collier (21 points), Williams (23 points), and Kayla McBride (22 points).

New York's chance to bounce back

The Liberty are now 0-6 in Game 1 of the WNBA finals, and will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday at 3pm ET (ABC). "This is a series, and we wanted to really win for home court [advantage]. But the beauty is we have another game on Sunday and we'll be ready," Stewart said after the game.

For the Liberty, the pressure will be on. No WNBA team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five playoff series, something New York knows well. The Liberty sent two-time defending champion Las Vegas home in the semifinals after building a similar insurmountable advantage.

"We're disappointed," Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello said. "We have to be better. We're a better team than what we showed today."

After missing the free throw that would have sealed the game for New York, and missing a key layup in overtime, Stewart is also prepping for a personal bounce back. "I feel like knowing my teammates, and that everyone has confidence in me is important," she said. "It's kind of like, on to the next, and still making sure I'm aggressive any time on the court. Obviously as a player, it's very frustrating."

Following Sunday's matchup, the series will head to Minnesota for Game 3 and a possible Game 4. New York will be very motivated to stretch the series as long as possible.

"We can't play to not lose, and I think we started to play [like that] a little bit," said Sabrina Ionescu.

WNBA announces draft, postseason infrastructure for 2025

Prior to Game 1, league commissioner Cathy Engelbert announced plans for the 2025 college draft, as well as a new structure for the postseason. The 2025 draft lottery will take place on Nov. 17, as the LA Sparks, Dallas Wings, Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky find out who will hold the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.

Expansion side the Golden State Valkyries will officially pick fifth in all three rounds of the 2025 draft, Engelbert also announced on Thursday. The Valkyries made their own bit of splashy news earlier in the day, announcing Aces assistant Natalie Nakase as the team's inaugural head coach.

The WNBA will also be making changes to the postseason starting in 2025, in reaction to the growing appetite for more games in more home markets.

The league will be expanding the finals to a best-of-seven series instead of a best-of-five starting in 2025. The first round will also go from a home-home-away cadence for the higher seed to a 1-1-1 structure, meaning all playoff teams will be guaranteed a postseason home game next year.

In today’s episode, Claire ponders another Sun postseason exit, and the risks and rewards of blowing things up in the pursuit of playoff glory.

She then previews the finals between the Lynx and the Liberty, with one key element she believes will earn one of the teams a title. She closes with some of the NWSL news of the midweek, which feels destined to shape the postseason and beyond.

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes in women’s sports. This is the weekly rundown you’ve been missing, covering the USWNT, NWSL, WNBA, college hoops, and whatever else is popping off in women’s sports each week. Special guest appearances with the biggest names in women’s sports make The Late Sub a must-listen for every fan. Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women’s Sports newsletter for more.

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With the 2024 NWSL Shield firmly in Orlando's hands, attention turns to the final three available playoff spots up for grabs as the regular season turns into the home stretch. The Chicago Red Stars, currently in sixth, could become the next team to clinch a postseason berth with a win against the surging Gotham on Saturday at 4pm ET (Paramount+).
 
Only Houston has been eliminated from postseason contention thus far, but Portland (7th) and Bay FC (8th) will try to hold off those below the playoff line to better their odds at a quarterfinal appearance. Racing Louisville appears poised to challenge for their own spot, sitting only three points below eighth place.

Both Portland and Bay FC will have their work cut out for them, as the Thorns take on first-place Orlando on Friday at 10pm ET (Prime), and Bay FC battles fourth-place Kansas City on Saturday at 10pm ET (ION). Amidst a losing skid, Portland is already looking toward the future after announcing this week that general manager Karina Leblanc will be transitioning out of her role at the end of the 2024 season.

Standings stragglers look to ward off elimination

With only three regular season matches left, Seattle, Angel City, San Diego, and Utah will all face elimination scenarios this weekend.

LA's playoff hopes hang by a thread after a three-point deduction due to a salary cap violation, but forward Alyssa Thompson is keeping the dream of the postseason alive. Thompson has scored five goals and registered two assists in her last seven NWSL games, including a crucial assist in a win against the Seattle Reign last weekend.

Six points off the playoff pace with three games to go in the regular season, Angel City will need Thompson at the height of her powers in their matchup against North Carolina on Saturday at 7:30pm ET (ION).

Andi Sullivan suffers season-ending ACL tear

The Washington Spirit announced on Wednesday that captain Andi Sullivan suffered an ACL tear in the team's loss to the Orlando Pride on Sunday, and will miss the rest of the 2024 season. A Spirit stalwart, Sullivan started all 21 regular season matches she appeared in for the club in 2024, tallying two goals.

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Sulivan joins a growing number of injured Spirit contributors, including Croix Bethune (out for the season), Trinity Rodman, Casey Krueger, and Ouleye Sarr. The Spirit will take on Racing Louisville on Sunday at 5pm ET.

The MVP race heats up

With KC Current forward Temwa Chawinga running away with the 2024 NWSL golden boot, is there still intrigue to be found in this year's MVP race? Chawinga won NWSL Player of the Month for September, while forward Barbra Banda continued to excel with the unbeaten, Shield-winning Orlando Pride.

Banda's goal contributions are slightly off Chawinga's pace, with 13 goals and six assists to Chawinga's 18 goals and six assists. Chawinga leads the league in goals per 90 minutes, but Banda holds the title in goals and assists per 90 minutes, while both players comfortably lead the league in xG and npxG per 90.

It's been a year for blazing offense in the NWSL, personified by Chawinga and Banda's excellence. But voters will have to decide if individual contributions, playmaking, and total team success are a bigger part of the picture when deciding who will walk away with 2024 NWSL MVP.

Welcome back to Fast Friends with Kelley O'Hara and Lisa Leslie!

In today's episode, our hosts preview Game 1 of the WNBA Finals between the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty, and how Liberty center Jonquel Jones could be the final piece to her team's title hopes.

"Jonquel Jones, for the Liberty to walk away holding that trophy, she's got to show up bigger and better," says Leslie. "She's got to be dominant in the paint, she's got to get those boards, and she's got to block some shots. She's got to play out of her mind."

In the world of soccer, Kelley discusses the special importance of winning an NWSL shield, and makes a few bold postseason predictions (sorry Orlando and Kansas City!)

Coming off the success of JWS's Olympic commentary show The Gold Standard, Fast Friends features two legendary athletes serving up insider insights and unique takes on the biggest stories in women's sports every week.

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