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Why the Liberty are pulling ahead in WNBA championship odds

Courtney Vandersloot, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones have continued to step up for the Liberty in the second half of the season. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

The New York Liberty have flipped the script.

When the teams met in June for the first time this season, a lopsided Aces win gave Las Vegas a leg up in the 2023 WNBA championship conversation. Then, it was New York’s turn to deliver a blow, winning their second matchup on Aug. 6 by a wide margin.

And on Tuesday night, the Liberty took a 2-1 lead in the season series with an 82-63 victory in the Commissioner’s Cup championship game. They hoisted the trophy, pocketed bonuses, secured money for Callen-Lorde (the charity of the team’s choosing) and brought a new school of thought to the table. While the Commissioner’s Cup championship doesn’t count toward the regular season standings, it matters in the grand scheme of how these teams match up.

And in that bigger picture, the pieces of the superteam are finally meshing, and cracks are beginning to appear within the Aces. In the ongoing battle of the WNBA superteams, New York is ahead.

The Liberty are now the favorites to win the WNBA championship.

Both teams have stars. Both teams have former WNBA players and title winners at the helm. And after some workshopping from New York to start the season, both teams have offenses that flow.

But both teams don’t have a bench, and that’s where the issues are arising for Las Vegas.

There were similar concerns about Las Vegas last season, but they didn’t end up materializing as the Aces went on to win their first WNBA championship. Head coach Becky Hammon knew the bench could be an issue going forward, so she signed veteran forward Alysha Clark to add depth alongside Kiah Stokes and Riquna Williams in a three-person bench unit.

Those numbers quickly dwindled as an injury to free-agent acquisition Candace Parker moved Stokes into the starting lineup. Williams missed the beginning of the season with a back injury and will likely not return to the Aces after being arrested for domestic violence last month. That leaves Clark as the sole rotation player coming off the bench.

While she has been consistent as a sixth player for Las Vegas, averaging 6.8 points per game and shooting 43% from beyond the arc, having just one player established on the bench is a concern going forward. Clark also missed a game with a sore back last week, which brings up a worrisome question for the Aces: What happens if someone else gets hurt?

Las Vegas would have to turn to Cayla George or Kierstan Bell, who have played limited minutes and mostly in garbage time. Against New York on Tuesday, Hammon chose not to play George until the final two minutes, and Bell struggled in her 11 minutes of action.

Nearly every issue the Aces had in that game stemmed from the short bench, while New York’s non-starters provided a major lift.

Las Vegas was clearly tired during the game, as evidenced by a 33% shooting performance that included just 19% shooting from beyond the arc. The Aces also grabbed just four rebounds in the second half and were outperformed 49-28 on the glass.

With Parker in the starting lineup, Stokes is able to provide a rebounding lift off the bench, but without Parker, she’s tasked with a much bigger load. Stokes grabbed 10 boards on Tuesday for more than a third of the Aces’ total production.

Parker’s absence also affects A’ja Wilson. Last season’s MVP is averaging 21.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest, but in her last two games against New York, those numbers decreased to 9.0 and 6.0. Stokes is not a scoring threat, averaging 2.5 points per game this season. That means New York — or other teams for that matter — can send multiple defenders at Wilson without worrying about leaving Stokes.

The guards are suffering from the short bench, too. Gray played 37 minutes against New York, Jackie Young played 35, and Kelsey Plum was in for 33 minutes. Not only does the small rotation make for tired legs, it also limits options. When New York found mismatches, like Betnijah Laney in the post, Las Vegas had to weather the storm with their smaller guards since there were no options for help off the bench.

Meanwhile, New York has perhaps the strongest bench in the WNBA, and it showed on Tuesday. In just 14 minutes of action, Marine Johannès erupted for 17 points, a game-high for both teams, and helped stretch the floor by knocking down five 3-pointers.

Kayla Thornton was also key in the win. The forward played 16 minutes, finishing with eight points, four rebounds and two assists.

The Liberty didn’t need anyone else to secure the win, but coach Sandy Brondello has even more options. Center Stefanie Dolson is still getting acclimated after an injury, but the nine-year WNBA player brings veteran experience to the Liberty bench after having a starting role in her previous nine seasons with the Mystics, Sky and Liberty. They also have Nyara Sabally, an athletic forward in her first season out of Oregon, guard Jocelyn Willoughby, and 6-foot-10 Han Xu back in the fold after playing in China.

In the battle of the superteams, only one has a super bench. That puts New York ahead as the season winds down and head toward the playoffs.

Eden Laase is a Staff Writer at Just Women’s Sports. Follow her on Twitter @eden_laase.

Phoenix Mercury, Golden State Valkyries Ride Upset Wins into the WNBA Weekend

Phoenix Mercury players including Satou Sabally huddle during a 2025 WNBA game against the New York Liberty.
Phoenix rose to No. 3 in the WNBA standings with Thursday's win over New York. (Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)

Two key upsets headlined Thursday's WNBA bill, sending the Phoenix Mercury soaring into third place in the league standings while the No. 6 Golden State Valkyries continued to outwit opponents.

The red-hot Mercury snagged their fourth straight win by taking down the No. 2 New York Liberty 89-81 on Thursday night, overcoming an 35-point performance from two-time MVP Breanna Stewart with five double-digit Phoenix scorers.

Meanwhile out West, the Valkyries stifled a surging No. 7 Fever, downing Indiana 88-77 in part by holding star guard Caitlin Clark to just 3-for-14 from the field — and 0-for-7 from behind the arc.

"We were being disruptive, we know that she doesn't like physicality, we know that she wants to get to that left step-back," Golden State head coach Natalie Nakase said about the Valkyries' strategy to effectively contain Clark.

Though the No. 1 Minnesota Lynx and 2024 WNBA champions New York still hold court atop the table, Thursday's actions proves that other squads are making some unexpected in-roads.

Putting together an impressive road record are the Mercury, who will ride a 4-2 away record into their Saturday matchup against the No. 11 Chicago Sky — the last stop on a four-game road trip that's been perfect for Phoenix thus far.

Already flipping the script on expectations is Golden State, with the 2025 expansion team rising despite relying on a hodgepodge roster as several players compete at EuroBasket 2025. The Valkyries will aim to keep their winning momentum in their Sunday clash with the No. 12 Connecticut Sun.

How to watch the Mercury, Valkyries this weekend

Both of Thursday's victors will be back in action this weekend, with Phoenix facing Chicago at 1 PM ET on Saturday, airing live on ABC.

Then on Sunday, Golden State will host Connecticut at 8:30 PM ET, with live coverage on WNBA League Pass.

Las Vegas Aces Aim to Stop Skid Ahead of Tough WNBA Weekend Matchups

Las Vegas's A'ja Wilson tries to defend a lay-up from Seattle's Gabby Williams during a 2025 WNBA game.
The Las Vegas Aces will face both Seattle and Indiana this weekend. (Rio Giancarlo/Getty Images)

In another weekend full of WNBA action, all eyes are on Las Vegas, as the No. 8 Aces will try to curb a two-game losing streak against two formidable opponents.

A successful weekend for Las Vegas could hinge on three-time WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson's potential return from injury, with the star forward recently upgraded to "questionable" after landing in concussion protocol last week.

Overall, the margin for error has narrowed in the middle of the WNBA pack, as talented teams continue to translate quality performances into consistency.

  • No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 8 Las Vegas Aces, Friday at 10 PM ET (ION): The Aces will try to end their free fall in Friday's head-to-head battle with a Seattle side that can beat anybody at their best.
  • No. 7 Indiana Fever vs. No. 8 Las Vegas Aces, Sunday at 3 PM ET (ESPN): Las Vegas next faces a Fever team still smarting from Thursday's away loss to the Golden State Valkyries, with both teams narrowly clinging to positions above the playoff line.
  • No. 2 New York Liberty vs. No. 5 Seattle Storm, Sunday at 7 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): The Liberty have a comfortable hold on second place, but with two losses in their last three games, New York is flirting with danger entering their Sunday game with Seattle — particularly if star big Jonquel Jones is out after suffering a knock to the ankle on Thursday.

Ultimately, there's no rest for the weary in the WNBA, as a series of difficult matchups can see a single error quickly slide into a losing streak.

NWSL Kicks Off Final Gameday Slate Ahead of Summer Break

The San Diego Wave celebrate a goal by María Sánchez during a 2025 NWSL match.
The San Diego Wave will take on 2024 runners-up Washington on Sunday. (Marcus Ingram/Getty Images)

The final NWSL weekend heading into the league's six-week summer break has arrived, giving teams one more chance to prove themselves before regular-season play pauses to make way for major international tournaments.

With a five-point gap separating No. 1 Kansas City from No. 2 Orlando in the NWSL standings, the Current will enter the break as the 2025 Shield frontrunners regardless of this weekend's results.

Despite Kansas City's grip atop the table, there's still plenty of room for movement both above and below the postseason cutoff line, as clubs across the NWSL look to wrap their midseason finales on a high note:

  • No. 1 Kansas City Current vs. No. 10 Angel City FC, Friday at 8 PM ET (Prime): Angel City has a shot at launching themselves above the cutoff line on Friday, but they'll have to snap the Current's five-game winning streak to make it happen.
  • No. 8 Gotham FC vs. No. 9 Bay FC, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET (ION): Gotham and Bay FC enter the weekend tied on points while staring at each other from on opposite sides of the playoff line — meaning a Saturday win for either club could set the tone for the rest of the 2025 season.
  • No. 3 San Diego Wave FC vs. No. 4 Washington Spirit, Sunday at 10 PM ET (CBS Sports): The weekend's only top-table clash could see San Diego sprint back into second place — unless Washington leapfrogs the upstart Wave to claim the third-place spot.

KPMG Women’s PGA Championship Ups Purse to $12 Million, Ties LPGA Tour Record

Thailand's Jeeno Thitikul hits a shot during the 2025 KPMG Women's PGA Championship.
Thai golfer Jeeno Thitikul is in the lead after one round at the 2025 KPMG Women's PGA Championship. (Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

The LPGA Tour has turned its attention to Texas, with the 2025 KPMG Women's PGA Championship — the third major of the pro golf season — teeing off in Frisco to a flurry of first-round action on Thursday.

All of the sport's Top 100 athletes are participating in this week's event, including No. 1 Nelly Korda, who sits in a 14th-place tie with an even-par first-round performance, and surging US dark horse No. 50 Lexi Thompson, who tied for 10th in her Thursday return from a brief retirement.

However, leading the pack heading into Friday's second round is Thailand's world No. 2 Jeeno Thitikul, who finished the first day of competition atop the leaderboard with a score of 4-under-par.

Australia's No. 24 Minjee Lee also posted a strong start, capping Thursday at 3-under to sit in second place.

While the sport's best chase victory on the links, the 2025 KPMG Women's PGA Championship is already making history off the green.

Not only is it the first-ever women's major to tee off at Frisco's Fields Ranch East, the tournament also increased its purse to $12 million on Tuesday — nearly tripling the $4.5 million prize pool from just four years ago and tying the US Women's Open for the LPGA Tour's highest payout in the process.

How to watch the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship

The third LPGA Grand Slam of 2025 continues through Sunday.

Friday's second round will air live on the Golf Channel, while coverage of Saturday and Sunday's final rounds will air across NBC and Peacock.

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