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WNBA betting guide: Take advantage of the Chicago Sky’s hot streak

While Las Vegas is still the championship betting favorite, Chicago’s stock is soaring. (Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images)

The WNBA All-Star Game is just days away, which means soon we’ll have betting lines for one of the most unique and exciting women’s basketball events to place your money on. (Who can forget the monumental mistake sportsbooks made for last year’s event?)

For now, we can recap the last several weeks of WNBA regular season action from a betting perspective.

Team trends

Aces stumbling

If the last few weeks have reminded us of anything, it’s that even the best are always vulnerable in sports. The juggernaut Aces, once the clear and undisputed top team in the league, have come back down to earth as of late. They are still the favorites to win the championship, but they’ve generally faded in the betting landscape.

Las Vegas is just 2-9 against the spread since the start of June, and in one of those wins, they covered by a mere 1.5 points. The All-Star break couldn’t come at a better time for this squad. While it won’t be as restful for the Aces as it will be for most other teams, considering much of their starting lineup will be in the All-Star Game in Chicago, it still should give them a chance to regroup and reset.

Sky surging

Meanwhile, Las Vegas’ Commissioner Cup opponent has been trending in the opposite direction. Chicago has won 11 of its last 13, with the only two losses coming by two points each. In the process, the Sky have cashed their spread bet eight times after beginning the season 2-6 against the spread.

Your next chance to bet on the Sky will come on Wednesday against one of the other hottest teams in the league: Minnesota. These two teams played a fantastic game just over a week ago, in which Courtney Vandersloot won it at the buzzer after the Sky blew a double-digit lead. In spite of the hot streak, letting teams claw their way back in games has been a theme for the Sky, so if they take a big lead early, it could be a good opportunity to bet on the other side.

Dream riding Tiffany Hayes

Tiffany Hayes made her season debut with a bang last week against the Liberty, knocking down four of her six triples and finishing with 21 points. The Dream won outright as 5.5-point underdogs in the process, and followed that up with a blowout upset of Seattle three days later also as 5.5-point underdogs.

After an excellent May and a tough June, the returns of Hayes and Erica Wheeler could mean Atlanta is in store for a big July. Their last game before the break comes against the Mystics, who will have Elena Delle Donne and will almost certainly be favored. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta cashes another underdog moneyline, or at the very least covers for a third straight time since Hayes has returned.

League trends

Checking on trends we’ve been monitoring

While second-quarter unders have faltered, coming down to 51.2 percent on the season (although still 55.9 percent when following a first-quarter over), fourth-quarter unders may be back. The under hit in over 62 percent of fourth quarters last season, but it started out practically 50/50 through 100 games this season: 51-49.

Since then, they have gone 20-7 with one push. That trend is even stronger, albeit in a smaller sample, when looking at the second legs of back-to-backs. Sportsbooks seem to have adjusted for the overall effect of back-to-backs being lower scoring, but they haven’t necessarily adjusted far enough when it comes to the fourth quarters of those games, when players are the most tired. Those unders are 8-2 on the season.

Some totals too low?

A new trend that’s emerging this season is the tendency for low totals to hit the over. Games for which the closing line has been 161 or lower have surpassed that total 36 times and gone under just 18, good for a 67 percent hit rate.

These totals are obviously coming largely from teams that play some combination of great defense, bad offense and slow-paced basketball — teams like the Mystics, the Storm or the Dream — so it makes sense that the lines are low. But if sportsbooks are overvaluing just how slow or defensive these teams are, it gives us a chance to make some money on those overs in the 150s.

Futures update

Here are FanDuel’s biggest movers of the last three weeks.

Stock up: Sky (+440 previous to +300 current)

Chicago’s hot streak hasn’t gone unnoticed by sportsbooks, as their odds have continued to shorten and have passed up the Connecticut Sun. A win over the team the Sky are chasing in the odds — the Aces — certainly didn’t hurt, nor did taking over first place in the standings.

The Storm are a very close second here, mostly thanks to adding Tina Charles during that time frame. Charles has never won a championship, but if she can continue to buy into this “bench alpha” role rather than demanding starter-level minutes and shots that would take away volume from Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd, Seattle may be in a good position.

Stock down: Sparks (+6500 previous to +15000 current)

This one is interesting, as Los Angeles has actually been playing fairly well recently. They’ve covered in five straight games, winning four of them outright despite only being favored in one.

However, it also became more and more clear in June that there is a gap between the WNBA’s top five and the rest, and the Sparks are not in that top group. They also fired head coach Derek Fisher in June, so +6500 was probably too short to begin with.

Best bets tonight

Seattle/Indiana over 158.5

Remember when the Fever started the season playing the fastest of any team in league history? Yes, they’ve played at a more reasonable pace since then, but this is still a very low line for any game involving Indiana.

And of course, this falls into the category we talked about above: Lines 161 or below that have gone over two-thirds of the time. Expect this one to be played in the 160s.

Connecticut/Dallas under 163.5

On the other side, you have a line that may have made more sense a few weeks ago, but the Sun offense hasn’t been too impressive over this recent stretch. In fact, Connecticut’s offensive rating of 91.3 over its last five games ranks dead-last in the WNBA over that time.

The first meeting between these two teams finished under this total, and the second one eclipsed it by just a few points thanks to the Sun’s 25-for-27 night at the free throw line. It will probably take something of that magnitude to hit this high of a total again.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Arsenal Roars Back to Punch Ticket to 2024/25 Champions League Final

Arsenal celebrates Mariona Caldentey's goal during their 2024/25 Champions League second-leg semifinal win over Lyon.
Arsenal overcame a 2-1 deficit to advance past Lyon on Sunday. (Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images)

Arsenal advanced to their first UEFA Women's Champions League (UWCL) final in 18 years on Sunday, defeating eight-time tournament winners Lyon 4-1 to punch their ticket to next month's title matchup against reigning champs FC Barcelona.

The Gunners overcame a 2-1 first-leg deficit to beat Lyon, with the French side suffering their first Champions League semifinal ousting since 2009.

"We are very, very, very proud," said Arsenal head coach Renee Slegers. "I think this was the biggest challenge so far, coming back from a 2-1 loss at the [Arsenal Stadium] against this top team with so much quality, and then coming out here, so calm and composed, with so much belief in what we're doing and courage on the pitch."

Ewa Pajor celebrates a goal during Barcelona's 2024/25 Champions League second-leg semifinal win over Chelsea.
Back-to-back defending champions Barcelona ousted Chelsea in Sunday's semifinals. (Molly Darlington - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

Powerhouse Barcelona awaits Arsenal in Champions League final

Overcoming an opening loss has been a theme for Arsenal throughout their 2024/25 Champions League campaign. Other than the tournament's very first qualifying round, the Gunners have dropped the first match of every single round thus far, using high-octane offense to claim the wins needed to keep advancing.

There are no multiple matches in the next round, however, where Arsenal will play underdog to titans Barcelona in the competition's final match.

The decorated Spanish club handed WSL-leaders Chelsea back-to-back 4-1 thrashings to seal their place in the 2024/25 Champions League final, ending the Blues' historic quadruple quest in the process.

Barcelona has now reached five of the last six Champions League title matches, taking home the trophy in 2021, 2023, and 2024.

Arsenal, on the other hand, is the only English team to ever lift the European trophy — a feat the Gunners accomplished back in 2007.

The teams will have a little less than a month to prepare for the tournament's grand finale, as the 2024/25 UWCL championship match will kick off in Lisbon, Portugal, on May 24th.

NCAA Basketball Star MiLaysia Fulwiley Transfers to Rival LSU

LSU's Shayeann Day-Wilson guards South Carolina's MiLaysia Fulwiley during a 2024/25 NCAA basketball game.
Fulwiley won a national championship with South Carolina in 2024. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

Former South Carolina star MiLaysia Fulwiley officially joined the Gamecocks' SEC rival LSU on Friday, putting the cherry on top of the Tigers' winning NCAA basketball transfer period.

According to multiple reports, the Columbia, South Carolina, product actually committed to LSU weeks ago — the same day she announced she'd be leaving her hometown school.

The rising junior won a national championship with South Carolina in 2024, but started only three of her 77 games with the talent-loaded Gamecocks — despite averaging 11.7 points per game and shooting 42.6% from the field.

Fulwiley's move only deepens one of the hottest rivalries of both the powerhouse SEC and the NCAA at-large, with either South Carolina or LSU featuring in each of the last four national championship games.

The guard won the SEC tournament's Most Outstanding Player award in 2024, after the Gamecocks beat the Tigers to secure last year's conference title.

Transfers reshape NCAA landscape ahead of 2025/26 season

This year's transfer portal has profoundly impacted the women's college basketball field, with more than 1,500 athletes — almost 30% of all Division I players — looking to jump ship.

Even though the NCAA basketball portal closed last week, there are no deadlines for transfers to commit to a new program — or return to their original school, should an athlete's roster spot still be available.

While Fulwiley and other NCAA basketball stars have locked in their 2025/26 NCAA homes, talented transfers like former USC guard Kayleigh Heckel are reportedly still looking for the right fit.

As the dust finished settling on a highly competitive 2024/25 season, roster shakeups could transform some teams into bonafide championship contenders — though history proves that building a superteam doesn't always guarantee a national title.

No. 11 North Carolina Tops No. 1 Kansas City in High-Scoring NWSL Weekend

Ashley Sanchez dribbles the ball during the NC Courage's win over the KC Current on Saturday.
Courage attacker Ashley Sanchez scored the game-winner against the Current on Saturday. (Jared Bundick/Imagn Images)

The North Carolina Courage earned their first winning results of the 2025 NWSL season in high-scoring style, when a last-gasp goal by attacker Ashley Sanchez handed the previously undefeated Kansas City Current their first loss on Saturday.

The Courage trailed Kansas City 2-1 just before the end of regulation, after goals from Haley Hopkins and Bia Zaneratto put the Current in the lead.

Center back Kaleigh Kurtz's 90th-minute equalizer flipped the script for the Courage, before Sanchez buried the closer three minutes later in second-half stoppage time.

The comeback victory boosted the formerly last-place Courage to No. 11 in the standings, while the league-leading Current's grip on No. 1 is loosening as they pull level in points with No. 2 Orlando.

Golden Boot-leader Esther celebrates another goal during Gotham's Saturday NWSL win over Washington.
Gotham attacker Esther González has scored seven goals in her last four NWSL games. (Hannah Foslien/NWSL via Getty Images)

Gotham caps roller-coaster week with win over Washington

Elsewhere on Saturday, No. 4 Gotham downed East Coast rivals No. 3 Washington 3-0, solidifying their spot in the NWSL's top five.

The victory was buoyed by a brace from Golden Boot-leader Esther González, whose seven season goals have all come in the last four matches — tying the NWSL record for most goals scored in a four-game span.

Still at the start of her third season with the NJ/NY side, the 32-year-old has already become the team's second all-time leading scorer, passing both Carli Lloyd and Midge Purce with her 18th Gotham goal on Saturday.

That weekend win capped off a crowded three-match week for the Bats. Before securing their multi-goal victory over DC, Gotham first beat Angel City 4-0 the previous Friday, then fell 4-1 to Portland last Tuesday.

"This was one of the proudest moments for us as a team and as a club," Gotham head coach Juan Carlos Amorós said after Saturday's match. "I couldn't be prouder of the players. I think they've been outstanding the whole week."

As for injury-ridden Washington, their performance wasn't a total loss, as 2024 Rookie of the Year Croix Bethune returned to the pitch for the first time since tearing her meniscus shortly after winning Olympic gold with the USWNT last summer.

"I do feel like I'm about 90%," Bethune told reporters after the match. "I had a hip/quad situation — I feel like that gave me a little bit more time to get stronger for my knee and just make sure I'm overall 100%."

While the Spirit continue dealing with an onslaught of injuries, Gotham — now just one point behind Washington in the standings — is steadily creeping in on the 2024 NWSL Championship runners-up's third-place spot.

The ball hits the back of the net in a San Diego goal during the Wave's 3-0 Saturday win over Chicago.
The NWSL's seven weekend matches saw 24 goals scored. (Daniel Bartel/NWSL via Getty Images)

Sixth NWSL matchday fueled by high-scoring results

Saturday's high-scoring tally fit right in with the rest of the NWSL, with the league's weekend slate delivering a high-octane 24 goals across its seven matches.

Defending champion Orlando secured a three-point result with a 3-2 comeback win over the visiting No. 9 Angel City, while the last-place Chicago Stars suffered a 3-0 home defeat at the hands of No. 5 San Diego.

However, it was No. 6 Portland and No. 12 Louisville that produced the most dramatic scoreline of the season's sixth matchday, settling for a 3-3 Sunday draw after the Thorns converted two penalty kicks.

"This is just another example of how good this league is, and how you literally cannot relax even for a second regardless of who you play and where you play them," said Current head coach Vlatko Andonovski, summing up a strong showing across the NWSL.

2024/25 PWHL Race to the Playoffs Heats Up

Toronto's Jocelyne Larocque skates with the pick against Montréal's Jennifer Gardiner during a 2024/25 PWHL game.
Montréal and Toronto have clinched their tickets to the 2024/25 PWHL Playoffs. (Michael Chisholm/Getty Images)

As PWHL action returned to the ice following the IIHF World Championship international break, the Toronto Sceptres booked their 2024/25 postseason berth this weekend, leaving just two spots left in this year's Walter Cup Playoffs.

Despite Toronto's 3-0 Saturday loss to the Boston Fleet, New York's 2-0 win over Minnesota on Sunday gave the second-place Sceptres enough of a point differential over the fifth-place Frost to solidify their postseason position.

Meanwhile, Saturday's games saw the Sirens suffer playoff elimination for the second straight year, with New York immediately banking Sunday's victory points toward securing yet another overall No. 1 pick in June's 2025 PWHL Draft under the league's Gold Plan.

Minnesota's Denise Krizova and Frost teammates line up for a faceoff during a 2025 PWHL game.
Inaugural champions Minnesota are dangerously close to missing the 2024/25 PWHL Playoffs. (Troy Parla/Getty Images)

Three teams hunt two remaining spots in 2024/25 PWHL Playoffs

With this weekend's results, the Sceptres join the league-leading Montréal Victoire in clinching a 2024/25 postseason berth, leaving three teams — the Fleet, the Frost, and the Ottawa Charge — battling for the final two spots.

Minnesota's Sunday loss, however, has the reigning PWHL champions on the brink of elimination.

With both Boston and Ottawa holding a significant points advantage over the Frost, Minnesota needs to win both of the final regular-season games and have either the Fleet or the Charge lose their two last matchups to squeeze above the PWHL table's cutoff line.

Following the close of the regular season on May 3rd, the 2024/25 PWHL Playoffs — featuring a semifinals round before the Walter Cup final — will begin the week of May 5th.

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