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WNBA playoffs betting odds, picks: Who should you take in the first round?

(Jesse Louie/Just Women’s Sports)

The WNBA playoffs get underway tonight, which means it’s a great time to sit on your couch and watch basketball for four straight hours.

It’s also a great time to place some bets on the games. High-stakes hoops are always fun to watch — with something on the line, it’s only that much more exciting.

If you’re thinking about getting started on sports betting with one of the first-round games tonight, look no further. We’ve taken a look at the numbers to get you set for what to expect.

We’ll refresh you on some of the basics in our breakdown of the matchups below, but for more details on how basketball betting works in general, you can check out our primer.

No. 7 Dallas Wings at No. 6 Chicago Sky (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Remember when the Sky signed Candace Parker and were thrown into the championship contender discussion?

Well, those hopes aren’t dashed, but finishing .500 and getting the exact same No. 6 seed as they did last season probably weren’t part of Chicago’s plans.

On the other side, Vickie Johnson, in her first year as head coach, managed to navigate her young Wings team through several ups and downs and into the playoffs for the first time since 2018.

In terms of the betting lines for this game, sportsbooks like the Sky. PointsBet has the spread set at Chicago -5, meaning that you can bet on the Sky to win by at least six or you can bet on the Wings to come within four (including winning).

So, which side should you take? Dallas won two of the three matchups with Chicago during the regular season, including one in which the Wings’ lead swelled to over 30 in the first half before a late Sky run.

But both teams have faltered since then. The Wings entered the break with a net rating (margin per 100 possessions) of 1.8, which was in the top half of the league. Since returning, that number has fallen to -5.9.

Chicago is in a similar boat. The Sky’s net rating dropped from 3.1 pre-break to -1.3 afterwards, and they have only covered the betting spread in three of their 12 games since the Olympics.

With neither team entering the playoffs on a high note, momentum should be a wash, so talent and experience could be what wins the day. The entire Dallas Wings roster has combined to play 164 career playoff minutes. The Sky have four players who have individually played significantly more than that, including Candace Parker, who has logged ten times that many playoff minutes.

The Dallas franchise is headed in the right direction, but this game is about the Sky exorcising their playoff demons from the last two seasons. Roll with Chicago -5.

PointsBet has the over/under for this matchup at 167, so you can bet on whether the teams will combine for more or fewer than 167 points. Each of the first two matchups between Dallas and Chicago flew by this number — 172 and 191, respectively — but the third fell short at just 156.

Historically, playoff games have tended to be a little slower than regular season ones, but shot-making has also slightly improved in the playoffs. And teams with at least three days of rest have taken advantage of those fresh legs and pushed the pace.

I expect the Sky to get back to their identity as an up-tempo scoring machine while a young Dallas squad tries to match their pace, so I’m taking the over in this one.

No. 8 New York Liberty at No. 5 Phoenix Mercury (10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Somehow, somehow, the New York Liberty are playing playoff basketball tonight.

Never mind that they spent Sunday afternoon hanging out in their living rooms with the rest of us, rooting for two different games to go their way. Never mind that they have the lowest net rating of any playoff team in WNBA history. Never mind that they won two games a season ago.

They’re here.

Tonight, the new kids on the block bring their unique brand of swag to the desert to take on a Mercury team that’s almost paradoxically boring. Phoenix has played in this round in each of the six seasons of the new WNBA playoff format, including four times as the No. 5 seed.

The opener Thursday night isn’t the only game with a massive disparity in playoff experience. While Liberty players collectively have played 829 playoff minutes, just a few more than Wings players, only 17 of those have come from someone other than Sami Whitcomb or Natasha Howard.

And that number dwarfs in comparison to the playoff court time Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi have seen.

The other problem New York may face is keeping Griner out of the paint. The Liberty are perimeter-oriented by design — it’s how their five-out system set the WNBA record for 3-point rate this year.

But on defense, that means their thin front line can run into trouble on the interior at times. New York allowed the second-most shots in the restricted arc during the season and the most since the break.

Combine that with their league-worst turnover rate and the lowest rebounding rate among playoff teams and you have a recipe for an early exit. I’ll take Phoenix -9.5.

As far as the over/under of 165, it starts to get tough to predict. Among all of those obstacles the Liberty face, they should ride what got them here — the 3 ball. They have shooters all over the place, and they are capable of erupting at any moment.

If the Liberty squad that started the season 5-1 on better than 40 percent shooting from deep shows up, this game will easily pass the 170-point mark. But there’s also a version of this Liberty team that shoots 4-for-25 from beyond the arc, like they did in June against Chicago, or 7-for-25, like they did just nine days ago.

It’s because of that variance that I’d probably stay away from betting this total, but if I had to lean one way I’d go with the over due to Phoenix’s league-leading offense since the break and New York’s difficulties matching up on defense.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats and Bet Her. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Amanda Anisimova Advances to 2025 Wimbledon Final by Ousting No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka

US tennis star Amanda Anisimova reacts to her 2025 Wimbledon semifinal win over Aryna Sabalenka.
With her 2025 Wimbledon semifinal win, Anisimova reached her first career Grand Slam final. (Tim Clayton/Getty Images)

US tennis star and world No. 12 Amanda Anisimova continued her breakthrough 2025 Wimbledon run on Thursday, taking down No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka to punch a ticket to her first career Grand Slam final.

"This doesn't feel real right now," Anisimova said after winning the 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 semifinal thriller. "I don't know how I pulled it out."

"It was such a rollercoaster match," the 23-year-old told ESPN. "[Sabalenka] is such a tough competitor, and I really had to give it my all to fight there to get the win."

As the first US player to reach a Wimbledon final since Serena Williams in 2019 — and the youngest from the US since Williams' 2004 run — Anisimova's meteoric 2025 rise comes just 18 months after she took an extended mental health break from tennis.

"A lot of people told me that you would never make it to the top again if you take so much time away from the game," she said. "So just me being able to prove that you can get back to the top if you prioritize yourself, that's been incredibly special to me."

Anisimova's semifinal win also continues a unique pattern for her home country, as Saturday's championship match is now the fourth straight Grand Slam final to feature a US player — a streak dating back to No. 3 Jessica Pegula's 2024 US Open championship appearance.

Even more, should Anisimova emerge victorious on Saturday, she'll join 2025 Australian Open champion No. 8 Madison Keys and 2025 French Open winner No. 2 Coco Gauff in continuing a US sweep of this year's Grand Slams.

Anisimova to face Świątek in 2025 Wimbledon final

To do so, however, Anisimova will have to defeat five-time Grand Slam winner and world No. 4 Iga Świątek in what will be the pair's first-ever senior-level match on Saturday.

Like Anisimova, the 24-year-old Polish phenom is on an unexpected Wimbledon run, as the London Slam's grass courts have historically hampered the clay-court specialist.

That said, Świątek dominated her Thursday semifinal against Switzerland's No. 35 Belinda Bencic, booking her spot in Saturday's title match in two quick 6-2, 6-0 sets.

"Tennis keeps surprising me," she said after the match. "I thought I had experienced everything on the court, but I hadn't experienced playing well on grass. That's the first time."

"Honestly, I never even dreamt that it was possible for me to play the [Wimbledon] finals, so I'm just super excited and proud of myself," Świątek added.

As for Anisimova, she's taking her championship match against the decorated Świątek in stride.

"I'm sure it'll be an amazing match. Getting to compete against an unbelievable player again is going to be super special," said the rising US star.

"Obviously I haven't been in a Grand Slam final before, but I've experienced a lot of moments similar and a lot of high-stakes matches," Anisimova noted. "I'm just gonna go out and enjoy every moment and try to not think about what’s on the line."

How to watch the 2025 Wimbledon championship match

With this year's tournament guaranteed to crown a first-time Wimbledon champion, Anisimova will battle Świątek for the London Slam's trophy at 11 AM ET on Saturday.

The final will air live on ESPN.

USWNT Legend Tobin Heath Hangs Up Her Boots, Officially Announces Retirement

USWNT star Tobin Heath triumphantly yells while holding the 2019 World Cup after winning the final.
Heath retires as a two-time World Cup champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist. (Daniela Porcelli/Getty Images)

Legendary USWNT attacker Tobin Heath officially announced her retirement from soccer on Thursday, nearly three years after playing her final professional match.

"Over New Year's, I actually came to the full acceptance that I wasn't going to be playing," the 37-year-old explained on her podcast, The RE-CAP Show.

In her 13 years with the senior national team, Heath — widely regarded as one of the most technical players in US history — earned two World Cup titles (2015, 2019) and three Olympic medals (gold in 2008 and 2012, and bronze in 2021).

Across her 181 USWNT caps, the 2016 US Soccer Athlete of the Year logged 36 goals and 42 assists, making her final appearance for the States on October 26th, 2021.

At the club level, Heath spent seven seasons with the Portland Thorns, helping the team to NWSL Championships in 2013 and 2017, as well as the 2016 NWSL Shield.

While her career also included European stints with the Première Ligue's PSG as well as WSL sides Manchester United and Arsenal, Heath ended her pro run with the 2022 NWSL Shield-winning Seattle Reign, playing what would be her final soccer match on August 14th of that year.

Injury ends Heath's soccer career

The end of Heath's career is not what the creative, nutmegging winger anticipated.

"I thought I was literally going to be peeled off the field," Heath told The Athletic on Wednesday.

However, a 2022 serious left knee injury left Heath unable to play soccer — even at a casual level — ultimately forcing her retirement.

"I tried f---ing everything to get back, I spent tens of thousands of dollars and [had] two surgeries, one crazy surgery," Heath said on her podcast. "And the whole time I believed I was going to get back."

"Football is a 360-degree sport, and I can't do it," she told The Athletic. "So that part is the hardest part. The actual playing of soccer is gone."

USWNT icon Tobin Heath speaks at a 2024 Grassroot Soccer event.
In her three years off the pitch, Heath is still elevating women's soccer. (Valerie Terranova/Getty Images)

Heath still working to lift up women's soccer in retirement

Despite coming to terms with the end of her on-pitch career, Heath isn't leaving the world of soccer anytime soon, helping lead the newly launched World Sevens Football and joining FIFA's technical study group for the men's Club World Cup.

Elevating football — particularly the women's game — is a pursuit that began for Heath with the Portland Thorns.

"[Portland] showed what women's sports could be," she explained. "I was dreaming of the world that I wanted to create."

The 2019 World Cup run then solidified that mission, with the USWNT adding a fourth star to their crest while also facing a pressure-cooker of expectations amid political tension and a contentious fight for equal pay.

"You can't feel what we felt...and not believe that you're doing something so f---ing important for the world," said Heath.

"You feel that responsibility — and that's what it is — and you want to keep carrying that responsibility as far forward as you can."

Rising USWNT Star Mia Fishel Inks Record NWSL Contract with Seattle Reign

Forward Mia Fishel poses in a Seattle Reign jersey after signing with the NWSL club.
Fishel's multi-year deal with the Seattle Reign runs through 2029. (Seattle Reign FC/Jane Gershovich)

USWNT and Chelsea FC forward Mia Fishel is officially heading back to the States, with the Seattle Reign announcing that the 24-year-old signed with the NWSL club on Thursday.

The multi-year deal will see Fishel join Seattle through the 2029 season on a contract reportedly worth nearly $2.5 million — the largest cumulative deal in NWSL history.

"We're absolutely thrilled to bring Mia into our squad," said Seattle head coach Laura Harvey in a club statement. "Mia's ability to disrupt defenses, finish in different ways makes her a dangerous addition to our group."

"Mia is a player with tremendous upside — a goal-scorer with presence, creativity, and a drive to keep growing," added Reign GM Lesle Gallimore.

Notably, though the Orlando Pride originally drafted the San Diego product and UCLA alum in 2022, this week's move will see Fishel make her domestic debut, with the young talent opting to start her pro career in Mexico.

In her single season with powerhouse Tigres UANL, Fishel notched 17 goals in 17 games to become the first foreign athlete to win the Liga MX Golden Boot, all while leading the team to a league championship.

Following her Liga MX success, Fishel signed with Chelsea, spending two seasons with the WSL champions — though a February 2024 ACL tear limited the young attacker's impact on both club and country over the last 16 months.

Nicknamed "Big Fish," the NWSL debutant has big plans for her upcoming lengthy tenure with Seattle.

"I knew coming to the States, I'm gonna be on a team for the long run," Fishel told reporters. "I wasn't expecting to just hop from team to team. Like, no, I want to put stakes in the ground. I want to eventually lead this team."

Indiana Fever Looks to Bounce Back Before 2025 WNBA All-Star Break

Indiana Fever center Aliyah Boston and Golden State Valkyries center Temi Fagbenle jump for the ball to start a 2025 WNBA game.
The Indiana Fever enter the weekend on a two-game losing streak. (Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This weekend's WNBA slate will see the No. 8 Indiana Fever aiming to right the ship, as the once-projected postseason contenders try to make a push prior to next weekend's 2025 All-Star break.

Despite seeing Caitlin Clark return from injury on Wednesday, the Fever will enter the weekend on a two-game losing streak.

"You should look yourself in the mirror and find ways you can get better, and then come back to practice tomorrow, and play again on Friday," Clark said after Indiana's 80-61 Wednesday loss to Golden State.

There's no immediate assist in the Fever's upcoming schedule, however, as they kick off the weekend against an Atlanta side that feeds on mismatches in the paint:

  • No. 4 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 8 Indiana Fever, Friday at 7:30 PM ET (ION): The Dream can put any team in a blender with their size and stretch capabilities, and Indiana will need solid three-point shooting to upend Atlanta.
  • No. 6 Golden State Valkyries vs. No. 9 Las Vegas Aces, Saturday at 4 PM ET (CBS): The short-handed Aces will hope to pounce on Golden State's mercurial road form, as Las Vegas tries to keep climbing the standings following a middling season start.
  • No. 4 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 3 New York Liberty, Sunday at 3 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): An injury-hampered New York will try to hold on against the formidable Dream, as the reigning champion Liberty keep battling while waiting for starters to return.

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