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WNBA Rookie Watch: Five players exceeding early expectations

Shakira Austin (Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)

The total number of rostered players four weeks into the WNBA regular season is roughly 140, not quite the 144 spots allotted by the league due to the financial jigsaw puzzle of fielding a competitive team within the salary cap. Of those 140 current players, 23 are rookies this season.

Here at JWS, we’ll be checking in periodically on the 2022 rookie class to keep you up to date on how they’re stacking up in the competitive WNBA.

Now that most teams have clocked at least 11 regular season games, five rookies have set themselves apart as clear overachievers, demonstrating value on the court that is significantly higher than their predicted value. One is a wildly popular NCAA champion point guard, one is an undrafted free agent making her W debut at age 31, and three are first-round draft picks already exceeding high preseason expectations.

1. Rhyne Howard, Atlanta Dream, age 22

ESPN Fantasy: preseason ranking — 34th, currently 14th in fantasy points per game

Coming in at number one is none other than the top overall pick of the 2022 WNBA Draft. The rookie with the highest expectations earned Eastern Conference Player of the Week honors her very first week in the league, something no other rookie had done since Tamika Catchings in 2002. Not even heralded players like A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi or Sue Bird achieved that mark.

Howard then became only the seventh player in WNBA history to score more than 100 points in her first five games. After averaging 20.5 points per game through her first six, her scoring cooled off in Week 3. Still, she is 11th league-wide in points per game and is leading the Dream in scoring and is top three in steals, blocks, and assists. In both win shares and player efficiency rating (PER), two stats that aim to measure the actual value a player provides when they are on the court, Howard is contending with the best in the league, currently ranking seventh and 21st, respectively.

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Howard has joined elite WNBA company during her first month in the league. (Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)

At the end of Howard’s record-breaking career at Kentucky, where she departed as the program’s all-time leading 3-point shooter, it was still unclear if she’d go No. 1 in the draft. The draft lottery-winning Mystics even traded down, willingly passing off the opportunity to draft her. Analysts questioned whether she had the motor required to maintain maximum effort up and down the court at the next level. Through the first month of the season, Howard has led Atlanta to its best start since 2017 and silenced all questions about whether she was worth the No. 1 pick.

2. Shakira Austin, Washington Mystics, age 22

ESPN Fantasy: preseason ranking — 87th, currently 61st in fantasy points per game

This is no knock against NaLyssa Smith, the No. 2 pick out of Baylor who has seamlessly transitioned to the pro level with the Fever, but her expected value was already as high as she’s revealing it to be. This is about Shakira Austin, the 6-foot-5 center out of Ole Miss who didn’t get as much mainstream attention until draft night after the Rebels lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Those who had seen Austin play knew she had a lot to offer as a dynamic defender who can protect the basket and hold her own against smaller perimeter players. And she’s been producing on both ends of the court right off the bat, averaging 8.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 0.9 blocks per game. Most notably, she’s currently ranked second in the league in field goal percentage (60.3 percent) and twelfth in total rebound rate (16.3 percent).

Having started eight of the Mystics’ 12 games, Austin has proven herself against some of the league’s best, holding Sylvia Fowles to 13 points in just her second career game. And among her rookie peers, she has the highest PER and is second highest in win shares.

3. Rebekah Gardner, Chicago Sky, age 31

ESPN Fantasy: preseason ranking — 149th, currently 66th in fantasy points per game

When filling the final rookie-scale salary spots on their roster, coaches either go for college draftees with steep learning curves but potentially high ceilings long-term, or veteran players from the overseas market who can fill immediate on-court gaps but have likely reached their ceiling. When the latter option reveals a much higher ceiling than expected, it’s like finding a unicorn.

The WNBA’s leading unicorn for 2022 is 31-year-old Rebekah Gardner, who played at UCLA from 2008-12 and then on a variety of teams in Europe over the past decade before finally breaking into the WNBA this season with James Wade’s Chicago Sky.

Gardner wasted no time in leaving her mark, currently averaging nine points, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game and ranking fifth in the league in shooting percentage. Serving as the backup to last season’s Finals MVP, Kahleah Copper, Gardner brings composure and tenacity from her experience playing against many of the league’s best while abroad. Of the rookie class, Gardner is third in scoring and fourth in both win shares and PER.

4. Destanni Henderson, Indiana Fever, age 23

ESPN Fantasy: preseason ranking — 147th, currently 80th in fantasy points per game

Destanni Henderson claims the fourth-place spot on our overachievers list, not for any lack of fanfare after her stellar performance in South Carolina’s run to the NCAA championship, but because 19 other rookies were selected before her on draft night. Granted, had she not put on one of the best showcases of her college career in the national championship game, her going 20th overall would not have raised too many eyebrows. Nonetheless, Henderson has quickly proven her stock is worth more than that.

In just her second game at the pro level, she put up 19 points, three assists, three rebounds and two steals and went 3-for-4 from beyond the arc. Henderson, mostly coming off the bench for the Fever, is averaging 7.2 points and 2.8 assists per game and has continued to hit shots from deep, currently ranked second in the league in 3-point shooting percentage (51.9). Within her rookie class, Henderson is second overall in assists per game, third in PER and fifth in win shares.

5. Queen Egbo, Indiana Fever, age 21

ESPN Fantasy: preseason ranking — 100, currently 49th in fantasy points per game

It should be no surprise that Indiana has two top-five overachieving rookies — the Fever had the highest number of first-round draft selections in the history of the league with four this year. Queen Egbo, a center out of Baylor, just barely edged out teammate Emily Engstler, a forward from Louisville, for our (highly coveted) fifth-place spot.

The two bigs are neck-and-neck in practically every stat sheet. Egbo is averaging 6.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.5 blocks per game, while Engstler is recording 6.8 points, seven rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Engstler also is currently second league-wide in offensive boards per game. But in almost every other statistical category, Egbo is either right by her side or slightly ahead. Even in league-wide and fantasy stat sheets, if you scan for one name, the other is lurking very close by. So, it really comes down to preseason expected value.

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L-R: NaLyssa Smith, Queen Egbo, Lexie Hull, Emily Engstler and Destanni Henderson (front) during the Fever's media day. (Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)

Engstler was the higher pick, taken fourth overall with Egbo going six picks later. Engstler’s ESPN preseason fantasy ranking was 80, and though her jump to 53rd in fantasy points per game is impressive, Egbo has the upper hand, rising from 100th to 49th. Both have quickly proven worthy of taking up two highly coveted WNBA roster spots, and we suspect they will for many years to come.

Underachievers

Overachieving during your rookie season is no guarantee of sure footing in the WNBA. Look no further than 2020 Rookie of the Year Crystal Dangerfield, who bounced around the league to start the year before landing with New York. But underperforming is a much harder trench to climb out of.

Two first-round draftees — Lexie Hull (IND) and Veronica Burton (DAL) — went higher than expected in the draft (much higher in Hull’s case), and are now up against inflated expectations as both have dropped in fantasy rankings from where they started. Granted, you have to get playing time in order to perform or underperform, and those were always going to be hard to come by for Hull and Burton this season. Hull is averaging seven minutes and Burton is getting 11.3 per game, but both are in the bottom 5 percent of the league in PER. If they can prove their value in practice day in and day out, their chance to establish themselves in the WNBA may come down the road.

The same will be true for Naz Hillmon (ATL), Kierstan Bell (LVA) and Nia Clouden (CON), three other first-round picks who have yet to prove whether they are here to stay. The highly anticipated WNBA expansion can’t come soon enough for many in this year’s rookie class.

Tessa Nichols is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports.

USC’s McKenzie Forbes: From Gap Year to the NCAA Tournament

As part of our 1-v-1 video series, USC’s India Otto sat down to interview her teammate McKenzie Forbes. 

Here are five things to know from our conversation with the graduate transfer from Folsom, California.

#1 Inspired by USC’s Head Coach, Lindsay Gottlieb, McKenzie wants to be a basketball coach or work in the front office in the future.

When weighing in on what makes a good coach, McKenzie said x’s and o’s are important but “Coaching is a lot of relationship managing and people managing. I think you have to be a good people person and be able to build those relationships, but also in that same breath, you can’t be afraid to have people dislike you in moments. I think that’s a big part of leadership.”

#2 McKenzie says the trajectory of her career changed when she made the decision to transfer from Cal to Harvard.

 In order to transfer, she was forced to take a gap year and spend a lot of time in the gym. “I completely transformed my body and, going into the Harvard season, felt like I was a completely different player. Going to Harvard and playing in a more mid-major conference, I had the ball in my hands a lot more than I might have if I transferred to another Power 5. It really developed other parts of my game.”

#3 How does McKenzie think USC will do in the Women’s College Basketball Tournament?

“I’m not going to give a typical interview answer. I want a Final Four. We have that potential and capability. Like why not? Why not us? I think we have all the pieces.”

#4 Her older brother, Marcus, was her biggest mentor growing up.

“He was basically my trainer from Elementary school on until he went to college.”

#5 Fun facts about Forbes:

She can juggle and she was the quarterback of her Pop Warner football team. “I was slow but I could throw it!”

Watch the full conversation on the Just Women’s Sports YouTube channel.

Christen Press back training with Angel City FC

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 15: Christen Press #23 of Angel City FC waves to fans following a game between the Portland Thorns and Angel City FC at BMO Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katharine Lotze/Getty Images)

Christen Press continues to inch her way back to a return, having returned to training with her club team Angel City. 

Angel City FC coach Becki Tweed said on Wednesday that Press is back with the team full-time as she continues to make her way back from an ACL injury. While she’s still working on rehab, her being back with the team gives staff a better picture of her progress. 

"Christen [Press] is back with us full time which is amazing,” she said. “Having her in and around the team every day, continuing to work hard on rehab ... she's in a space where being in with the team is really important to her and her progression as well.”

The status update comes days after Press posted videos to social media that featured her doing lateral movement in cleats on grass. 

“Look out world she’s on the move !” Press captioned it. 

Press has been sidelined with an ACL injury since 2022, which caused her to miss the 2023 World Cup. She’s since had four separate surgeries to help repair her ACL.

Press told The Athletic a month ago that she’s been “relentless” in her optimism with her recovery despite it being a “slow process.”

“I have a bit of relentless optimism,” she told The Athletic. “I never, ever doubted that I would make it back on any of the timelines I’ve been on."

"Every single time I’ve heard, ‘You have to have surgery,’ I’m completely shocked,” she said. “When somebody asks me how it’s going, I’m like, ‘It’s going great. And it was going great every time. So I don’t know what to tell you anymore!’”

Sophia Smith re-signs with Portland on record deal

(Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports)

Sophia Smith is now the NWSL’s highest-paid player. 

The Portland Thorns announced on Wednesday that they have signed Smith to a new contract through the 2025 season, with an option for 2026. While the terms of the deal were not disclosed, the team did reveal that Smith is now the highest-paid player in the league on an annual basis.

It’s the latest in what has been a series of record-breaking contracts in the NWSL offseason. 

Chicago Red Stars forward Mallory Swanson, Bay FC forward Racheal Kundananji, and Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda all signed multi-year deals worth between $2 million and $2.5 million in total. While Smith’s contract is shorter and not worth as much over the long-term, the annual worth is higher. 

“We are over the moon to have Soph commit again to the Thorns. She is a proven, world-class talent and one that we are excited to have contribute to the team’s continued success,” said head coach Mike Norris in a statement. “We look forward to working with her in a Thorns jersey as she continues to shine as one of the top strikers in the world.”

In just four seasons in the NWSL, Smith has led the Thorns to five trophies – including the 2022 NWSL championship – while winning league and championship MVP in 2022. In 61 appearances with Portland, she has 34 goals – including a brace to start this season against Kansas City. 

She’s also a member of the USWNT, having scored 16 goals in 44 international appearances.  Set to become a free agent at the end of this season, she told ESPN she “thought of all the options” but ultimately Portland felt like the right decision.

"There is no place like Portland," Smith said in a small roundtable interview that included ESPN. "I don't believe there's an environment like Portland to play in and it's a city that's so special to me and a city that I feel like I've grown up in almost and become who I am."

She also told ESPN that the team’s new ownership “changes everything.” The club is now led by the Bhathal family, who bought the club after Merritt Paulson was forced to sell it following his part in the NWSL’s abuse scandal. 

"Since I've been here there has been a lot of things going on with this club -- a lot of not-great things going on with this club -- and I have just been waiting for some stability and some reassurance that this club is headed in the right direction, and the Bhathal family coming in is doing exactly that, if not more,” Smith said. 

"Their vision for this club is so exciting, and you can just tell how passionate they are about making this what it should be and continuing to push the standard in women's soccer globally.”

Caitlin Clark offered $5 million to compete in Ice Cube’s league

IOWA CITY, IOWA- MARCH 25: Guard Caitlin Clark #22 of the Iowa Hawkeyes celebrates as time runs out in the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers during their second round match-up in the 2024 NCAA Division 1 Women's Basketball Championship at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on March 25, 2024 in Iowa City, Iowa. (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)

Caitlin Clark has been offered $5 million to play in Ice Cube's Big3 league, he confirmed on social media Wednesday after the offer leaked.

"We intended the offer to remain private while Caitlin Clark plays for the championship," Ice Cube wrote on social media. "But I won't deny what's now already out there: BIG3 made a historic offer to Caitlin Clark. Why wouldn't we? Caitlin is a generational athlete who can achieve tremendous success in the BIG3."

While there has yet to be a women's player in the league, both Nancy Lieberman and Lisa Leslie have been part of the league as coaches and won championships.

"The skeptics laughed when we made Nancy Lieberman the first female coach of a men's pro team, and she won the championship in her first year," Ice Cube continued. "Then Lisa Leslie won it all in year two. With our offer, Caitlin Clark can make history and break down even more barriers for women athletes."

Ice Cube, whose name is O’Shea Jackson, says that the offer was made with the intention that Clark be able to compete in the WNBA “offseason.” Clark is largely expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA draft in April. But it’s unclear how the scheduling of the two leagues would work. 

The 2024 Big3 season is set to tip off on June 15, with 10 games spanning through mid-August. The WNBA regular season, meanwhile, begins on May 14 and ends on Sept. 19.

On “The Pat McAfee Show” on Wednesday, Jackson said that the league has yet to hear back from Clark. 

“We just need an answer, as soon as they are ready to give it to us,” he said. “It’s always 50-50 till we get a no. At the end of the day, it’s a generous offer.”

The offer – as well as the confusion on Jackson’s part about the timing of the WNBA season – caused some current WNBA players to react. 

"It's funny cause I be seeing his son at W games.. they don't talk?" wrote former No. 1 pick Rhyne Howard

"So no other women's basketball player has came to mind in the last 7 years?" wrote Lexie Brown, adding that she'd support if Ice Cube wanted to build a women's iteration of the league. She later discussed it on the Gils Arena Show, noting that his reasoning of wanting to “uplift and support WNBA players and women athletes” is a “cop out.”

Kalani Brown, meanwhile, told Clark to "take that money" and start a women's Big3.

WNBA salaries has been a talking point in recent months as more collegiate stars declare for the league. WNBA stars have often made more money playing abroad than they have in the WNBA. Clark is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the WNBA draft on April 15, with a rookie salary of $76,535 for lottery draft picks (Nos. 1-4) that rises to $97,582 by her fourth season. But she also has an NIL valuation of almost $3.5 million.

Diana Taurasi famously skipped the 2015 WNBA season at the request of her Russian club, who paid her more to sit out than she would have made in the W. Her contract with the club was reportedly near $1.5 million per year.

Jackson also seemed to suggest that his league could be an alternative to going abroad

“America’s women athletes should not be forced to spend their off seasons playing in often dismal and dubious foreign countries just to make ends meet,” he wrote. Although it’s unclear whether or not the rapper intends to make offers to additional WNBA players. 

While the league does hold prioritization rules in its CBA, those typically apply only to players playing in overseas leagues. It’s unclear whether or not that would prevent Clark’s participation in the Big3 league.

WNBA players that don’t want to go overseas currently have the option of playing in Athletes Unlimited, which competes in the WNBA offseason.

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