On Monday, the U.S. women’s national team will face their toughest opponent of the Concacaf W Championship so far: Canada.

Both teams have already qualified for the 2023 FIFA World Cup after finishing atop their groups, and now they will compete for a berth in the 2024 Olympics in the Concacaf championship game Monday night (10 p.m. ET, Paramount+). They’re both undefeated in this year’s qualifying tournament and have outscored their opponents 12-0. They’re also both riding 3-0 semifinal victories into the final game.

The last time the two sides met in August 2021, Canada defeated the USWNT 1-0 in the semifinals of the Tokyo Olympics. It was a rare win for the Canadians, who hadn’t beaten the U.S. since 2001. The Americans hold a 51-4-7 all-time edge in the regional rivalry.

But after the Canadians won their first Olympic gold in Tokyo, looking stronger in each international tournament since then, the outcome isn’t as predictable as it used to be. The USWNT also has many new players who have yet to test themselves against an opponent as formidable as Canada.

U.S. head coach Vlatko Andonovski said after the group stage that he doesn’t think the team is ready for the World Cup at this point in their development. But are they ready for Canada? Here’s what to know ahead of the Concacaf W final.

Defense ready to be tested

Neither team in this matchup has conceded a goal yet this tournament. They’ve each had their turns controlling possession and not allowing opponents the opportunity to spend a significant amount of time in their boxes. Now, both defenses will be challenged under higher pressure.

When the ball did get into the USWNT’s box in the group stage, Naomi Girma made a difference when she was in the lineup with her ability to read plays and shut down attacks.

Mexico, the USWNT’s toughest opponent in the tournament so far, was able to exploit them outside of the box, getting off multiple shots from the space between the midfielders and the backline. Canada won’t be afraid to take those chances if they have space. The U.S. will have to keep an eye on center midfielder Jessie Fleming, who can put strikes on target from far out.

Overall, the back four have been the USWNT’s strongest unit so far, contributing heavily to the attack with the center backs’ accurate long balls and the outside backs’ crosses and runs into the attacking third that have resulted in multiple goals and chances.

Lately, Canada has defaulted to a defensive formation that includes two players who are used to playing the No. 6: Quinn and Desiree Scott. If Canada head coach Bev Priestman opts for them both to hang lower, the loaded defense is nothing the USWNT hasn’t seen before, but they’ll still have to prove they can beat it.

Lack of creativity on the attack

The USWNT has become known for their creativity, but it’s been lacking during the Concacaf tournament, and they’ll be hard-pressed to find it in their toughest match yet.

Midfielder Rose Lavelle is usually the mastermind behind the inventiveness, weaving through the midfield until she finds ample space ahead of her to run at backlines. With the low blocks and loaded backlines Concacaf opponents have thrown at the USWNT, Lavelle has struggled to find the space she needs to dictate the game in the ways she’s used to. If Canada plants two defensive midfielders in her way, the U.S. attack could continue to be in trouble.

Canada hasn’t historically been known for their creativity, but the impact their substitutes can make is enough to catch opponents off guard. Canada’s substitutes have scored half of the team’s 12 goals. Adriana Leon most recently recorded a goal and an assist in the semis, delivering a cross right to the head of fellow substitute Allysha Chapman in a play that encapsulated Canada’s attacking strategy.

⚽ GOAL @CanadaSoccerEN!

🇨🇦 Great effort by @allyshachapman to score the header! 2-0. | #CWC pic.twitter.com/1L1dOey5AI

— Concacaf W (@ConcacafW) July 15, 2022

Midfielder Julia Grosso has also provided a spark to the Canadian attack this tournament, demonstrating quick and precise decision-making in the box. She scored her first three international goals in Canada’s opening two games, and her efforts helped wake her team up in the first match against Trinidad and Tobago. With Canada up only 1-0 at the half, Grosso put them on the board twice in the second and led the way to a 6-0 win.

Predictions

Until Canada can clean up their passing, the U.S. should have most of the possession as they continue their high-press strategy. Goals, however, could be hard for them to come by against Canada’s dominant backline that includes Chelsea’s Kadeisha Buchanan, Angel City FC’s Vanessa Gilles and San Diego Wave goalkeeper Kailen Sheridan.

I wouldn’t be surprised if neither side scores in the first 45 minutes as the U.S. adjusts to its new opponent. While they might press more, Canada will quietly wait for a moment to counterattack. The first halves of the USWNT-Canada matchups at the Tokyo Olympics and in the 2020 Concacaf final ended in scoreless draws.

The U.S. will generate multiple scoring opportunities, but Canada’s defensive pressure will make it difficult for them to finish. Canada likely won’t have as many chances, but I predict Fleming, their leading goal scorer in the tournament, will put one away late into the second half before the team locks it down on defense to hold onto a 1-0 victory.

Jessa Braun is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports covering the NWSL and USWNT. Follow her on Twitter @jessabraun.

After trailing by as many as 18 points in the first half, the Minnesota Lynx stormed back to a 95-93 overtime win in Brooklyn on Thursday to steal Game 1 of the WNBA finals on the road. Minnesota's return from 18 points down ties the greatest comeback in WNBA history, ironically first set by the Liberty in Game 2 of the 1999 finals.

The Liberty came out swinging early in front of a raucous Barclays Center crowd, scoring 32 points in the first quarter as the Lynx suddenly found themselves in danger of becoming overwhelmed. But Minnesota kept chipping away at the lead, reducing New York's advantage to single digits at halftime.

As the teams traded runs in the second half, it appeared as if New York would to be able to hold off a late charge by the Lynx, leading by 15 points with 5:20 remaining in the game. But once again, Minnesota remained calm and went on a run of their own.

"I think it defines our team in terms of being able to get through difficult times," Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve said after the game. "That's what we are talking about: You have to be mentally tough and resilient."

Guard Courtney Williams made the four-point play to give Minnesota an unlikely one-point lead with seconds remaining, and Breanna Stewart split two free throws to send the game into overtime.

After a slow start to the overtime period, Lynx star Napheesa Collier's final midrange jumper proved to be the difference, sending Minnesota into Game 2 with a 1-0 advantage. The Lynx are the first team in WNBA postseason history to win a game after trailing by 15+ points in the final five minutes of regulation in 184 games.

New York center Jonquel Jones led all scorers with 24 points, but Minnesota got the most out of the trio of Collier (21 points), Williams (23 points), and Kayla McBride (22 points).

New York's chance to bounce back

The Liberty are now 0-6 in Game 1 of the WNBA finals, and will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday at 3pm ET (ABC). "This is a series, and we wanted to really win for home court [advantage]. But the beauty is we have another game on Sunday and we'll be ready," Stewart said after the game.

For the Liberty, the pressure will be on. No WNBA team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five playoff series, something New York knows well. The Liberty sent two-time defending champion Las Vegas home in the semifinals after building a similar insurmountable advantage.

"We're disappointed," Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello said. "We have to be better. We're a better team than what we showed today."

After missing the free throw that would have sealed the game for New York, and missing a key layup in overtime, Stewart is also prepping for a personal bounce back. "I feel like knowing my teammates, and that everyone has confidence in me is important," she said. "It's kind of like, on to the next, and still making sure I'm aggressive any time on the court. Obviously as a player, it's very frustrating."

Following Sunday's matchup, the series will head to Minnesota for Game 3 and a possible Game 4. New York will be very motivated to stretch the series as long as possible.

"We can't play to not lose, and I think we started to play [like that] a little bit," said Sabrina Ionescu.

WNBA announces draft, postseason infrastructure for 2025

Prior to Game 1, league commissioner Cathy Engelbert announced plans for the 2025 college draft, as well as a new structure for the postseason. The 2025 draft lottery will take place on Nov. 17, as the LA Sparks, Dallas Wings, Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky find out who will hold the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.

Expansion side the Golden State Valkyries will officially pick fifth in all three rounds of the 2025 draft, Engelbert also announced on Thursday. The Valkyries made their own bit of splashy news earlier in the day, announcing Aces assistant Natalie Nakase as the team's inaugural head coach.

The WNBA will also be making changes to the postseason starting in 2025, in reaction to the growing appetite for more games in more home markets.

The league will be expanding the finals to a best-of-seven series instead of a best-of-five starting in 2025. The first round will also go from a home-home-away cadence for the higher seed to a 1-1-1 structure, meaning all playoff teams will be guaranteed a postseason home game next year.

In today’s episode, Claire ponders another Sun postseason exit, and the risks and rewards of blowing things up in the pursuit of playoff glory.

She then previews the finals between the Lynx and the Liberty, with one key element she believes will earn one of the teams a title. She closes with some of the NWSL news of the midweek, which feels destined to shape the postseason and beyond.

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes in women’s sports. This is the weekly rundown you’ve been missing, covering the USWNT, NWSL, WNBA, college hoops, and whatever else is popping off in women’s sports each week. Special guest appearances with the biggest names in women’s sports make The Late Sub a must-listen for every fan. Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women’s Sports newsletter for more.

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With the 2024 NWSL Shield firmly in Orlando's hands, attention turns to the final three available playoff spots up for grabs as the regular season turns into the home stretch. The Chicago Red Stars, currently in sixth, could become the next team to clinch a postseason berth with a win against the surging Gotham on Saturday at 4pm ET (Paramount+).
 
Only Houston has been eliminated from postseason contention thus far, but Portland (7th) and Bay FC (8th) will try to hold off those below the playoff line to better their odds at a quarterfinal appearance. Racing Louisville appears poised to challenge for their own spot, sitting only three points below eighth place.

Both Portland and Bay FC will have their work cut out for them, as the Thorns take on first-place Orlando on Friday at 10pm ET (Prime), and Bay FC battles fourth-place Kansas City on Saturday at 10pm ET (ION). Amidst a losing skid, Portland is already looking toward the future after announcing this week that general manager Karina Leblanc will be transitioning out of her role at the end of the 2024 season.

Standings stragglers look to ward off elimination

With only three regular season matches left, Seattle, Angel City, San Diego, and Utah will all face elimination scenarios this weekend.

LA's playoff hopes hang by a thread after a three-point deduction due to a salary cap violation, but forward Alyssa Thompson is keeping the dream of the postseason alive. Thompson has scored five goals and registered two assists in her last seven NWSL games, including a crucial assist in a win against the Seattle Reign last weekend.

Six points off the playoff pace with three games to go in the regular season, Angel City will need Thompson at the height of her powers in their matchup against North Carolina on Saturday at 7:30pm ET (ION).

Andi Sullivan suffers season-ending ACL tear

The Washington Spirit announced on Wednesday that captain Andi Sullivan suffered an ACL tear in the team's loss to the Orlando Pride on Sunday, and will miss the rest of the 2024 season. A Spirit stalwart, Sullivan started all 21 regular season matches she appeared in for the club in 2024, tallying two goals.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Andi Sullivan (@sunnysulli)

Sulivan joins a growing number of injured Spirit contributors, including Croix Bethune (out for the season), Trinity Rodman, Casey Krueger, and Ouleye Sarr. The Spirit will take on Racing Louisville on Sunday at 5pm ET.

The MVP race heats up

With KC Current forward Temwa Chawinga running away with the 2024 NWSL golden boot, is there still intrigue to be found in this year's MVP race? Chawinga won NWSL Player of the Month for September, while forward Barbra Banda continued to excel with the unbeaten, Shield-winning Orlando Pride.

Banda's goal contributions are slightly off Chawinga's pace, with 13 goals and six assists to Chawinga's 18 goals and six assists. Chawinga leads the league in goals per 90 minutes, but Banda holds the title in goals and assists per 90 minutes, while both players comfortably lead the league in xG and npxG per 90.

It's been a year for blazing offense in the NWSL, personified by Chawinga and Banda's excellence. But voters will have to decide if individual contributions, playmaking, and total team success are a bigger part of the picture when deciding who will walk away with 2024 NWSL MVP.

Welcome back to Fast Friends with Kelley O'Hara and Lisa Leslie!

In today's episode, our hosts preview Game 1 of the WNBA Finals between the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty, and how Liberty center Jonquel Jones could be the final piece to her team's title hopes.

"Jonquel Jones, for the Liberty to walk away holding that trophy, she's got to show up bigger and better," says Leslie. "She's got to be dominant in the paint, she's got to get those boards, and she's got to block some shots. She's got to play out of her mind."

In the world of soccer, Kelley discusses the special importance of winning an NWSL shield, and makes a few bold postseason predictions (sorry Orlando and Kansas City!)

Coming off the success of JWS's Olympic commentary show The Gold Standard, Fast Friends features two legendary athletes serving up insider insights and unique takes on the biggest stories in women's sports every week.

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