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WNBA betting guide: Keep an eye on Sabrina Ionescu and the Liberty

(Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)

Another week of WNBA action is in the books, and the betting world continues to give us plenty to talk about.

This past week had both the lowest and the highest over/under for a game this season — 150 in last Tuesday’s Atlanta-Seattle game and 177 in Saturday’s contest between Las Vegas and Los Angeles — and it also gave us the Liberty’s first win against the spread as road favorites in over four years.

With those highlights in mind, let’s dive into the week in WNBA betting.

Team trends

Liberty rolling

In May, the Liberty were arguably the best fade in the league. Now, they may be the best bet. The addition of Crystal Dangerfield has allowed Sabrina Ionescu to spend some of her minutes off the ball, and it’s done wonders both for Ionescu and the team.

Statistically, the newly-minted Eastern Conference Player of the Week has done a complete 180 since the calendar flipped to June. Ionescu has essentially doubled her May averages in scoring, 3-pointers per game and free throws per game, while sinking over 44 percent of her triples and all 29 of her free throws so far this month.

As you might expect, this individual breakthrough has directly coincided with a team turnaround. Since inserting Dangerfield into the starting lineup to begin the month, New York has gone from the league’s worst net rating to its best. They even pulled the biggest upset of the season when they took down Washington as 12-point underdogs on June 3.

Fever getting on the board first

In our last betting piece, we talked about BetMGM’s “first to score” prop bets. These generally only take into account the strength of each team overall, not the strength of each team’s center at winning jump balls.

Because of this, we can use jump ball data to our advantage. The Fever in particular present an interesting case. Despite owning one of the worst win-loss records in the league, Indiana is scoring first at a remarkable rate. The Fever are the only team in the WNBA to score first 11 times already this season.

While it helps that the Fever have played more games than some teams, they are even in the top three in percentage, having scored first in 68.8 percent of their games. Only the Sun and the Storm have done it more frequently.

Mystics’ second quarters

We’ve devoted plenty of words to the Mystics and their propensity for unders this season — their slow pace and elite defense have made it tough for sportsbooks to adjust their totals low enough.

Washington’s 11-4 record on unders in full games is the best in the league, but it’s nothing compared to their record on second-quarter unders. In 15 Mystics games this season, the second-quarter under has hit an incredible 14 times. If you bet on the under in every Mystics second quarter so far, you’d be nearly undefeated.

Even when they combined for 180 against the Wings, or 173 against the Sky, or 189 on Sunday against the Mercury, the second quarter still went under. There’s bound to be regression at some point, but ride this trend for as long as you can.

League trends

Checking on trends we’ve been monitoring

So far, we’ve been keeping an eye on back-to-back unders, fourth-quarter unders and live second-quarter unders.

Back-to-back unders and fourth-quarter unders continue to sit around 50-50, so it may be that books are finally making adjustments after last season. They haven’t quite figured out those second quarters though — after a first quarter goes over, the second quarter is still going under over 60 percent of the time.

Combined with the Mystics’ extreme low-scoring second quarters, any high-scoring Mystics first quarter should be an automatic trigger to open your sportsbook app and bet the under on the next quarter.

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Elena Delle Donne has been sitting out some Mystics games while she works her way back to full strength. (Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)

Late player availability updates

Usually, the earlier you can get your bets in, the better. With lines now being posted the night before, if you can place your wagers before you go to bed you can often get a better line before the lines move the day of the game.

However, there have been some exceptions to that this season. Because of the lingering effects of the pandemic, there have been occasions where a player is ruled out seemingly out of nowhere mere hours before tip. Most notably, it happened to Breanna Stewart earlier this season, but other players such as Sophie Cunningham, Natasha Cloud and Marina Mabrey have been affected.

Even aside from COVID-19, this type of thing happens in rare instances, such as Elena Delle Donne being ruled out on Sunday after carrying a probable tag into the game (she was the first probable player this season who didn’t end up playing). But the health and safety protocols have increased the frequency of last-minute scratches, so there has been some value in waiting on your bets.

Sportsbooks are doing a much better job this season of updating lines shortly after news breaks. Last season, there were times when odds didn’t change for hours even after a player as important as Candace Parker or Brittney Griner was ruled out. Sportsbooks are now moving their lines within minutes, not hours, of availability news. (That books are putting this effort in is also a great sign of progress in the game.)

Nonetheless, there’s still a small window to bet on a game after player news comes out before the lines move. As long as we’re still dealing with COVID-19 in any form, it may make more sense for those who are really on top of things throughout the day to wait on putting any money down until closer to tip.

Futures update

Here are FanDuel’s biggest movers of the last two weeks.

Stock up: Aces (+200 previous to +115 current)

It says a lot about the Aces that their stock increased the most despite already being the favorites. Even without Jackie Young for the last several days, Las Vegas has raised its value.

It’s also noteworthy to see a number as low as +115 before the halfway point of the season. If that number hits +100, the Aces will have a 50 percent implied probability of winning the championship, a mark we don’t typically see any team hit until after the playoffs have started.

From their three legitimate MVP candidates, to their league-best 9-4 record against the spread, to their ever-rising title chances, there are all sorts of ways to use betting odds to tell the same story: The Aces are flat-out awesome.

Stock down: Mercury (+1000 previous to +4100 current)

As the season has gone on, it’s become more and more apparent that Phoenix just doesn’t have a championship-level defense without Brittney Griner. The superstar backcourt of Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith, alongside Tina Charles in the middle, can win the Mercury games on the right night, but this team doesn’t have the interior resistance to consistently compete with the league’s top tier right now.

Even Phoenix’s opponents would welcome an improvement in that department if it meant getting Griner back home safely before season’s end. For now, it’s tough to consider Phoenix as a contender for anything more than a backend playoff spot.

Best bets tonight

Washington -6.5 vs. Phoenix

Let’s run this one back. It looked like Washington had a good shot at clearing this line on Sunday, then Delle Donne was unexpectedly ruled out just a couple of hours before tip. She’s probable again for this one, but it would be extremely surprising if she didn’t play. As long as she’s on the floor, look for Mike Thibault to make adjustments from Sunday’s loss and the Mystics to win comfortably in a revenge game.

Phoenix vs. Washington under 165.5

The total for the first leg of this back-to-back closed at 160, so we’re getting an extra 5.5 points just based on how high-scoring Sunday’s contest was. That’s an overreaction to a single game. Whether the back-to-back under effect is still around or not, this line is far too high for any Mystics game. And, of course, if you have access to a book with quarter unders, take the second-quarter under here as long as it’s at least 40.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

USA Ski Legend Lindsey Vonn Turns Back the Clock, Clinches 2026 Olympics Spot

USA ski star Lindsey Vonn races downhill in the Super G at the 2025 FIS Alpine World Cup.
US skier Lindsey Vonn earned another World Cup podium finish on Sunday amid a late-career resurgence. (Millo Moravski/Agence Zoom/Getty Images)

US skiing icon Lindsey Vonn is officially back, clinching her spot on Team USA's 2026 Winter Olympics roster this week behind stellar recent performances on the sport's World Cup tour.

The 41-year-old made headlines two weekends ago when she became the oldest Alpine Ski World Cup winner since the circuit's 1967 inception, taking first in the downhill race in St. Moritz, Switzerland on December 12th — her 83rd World Cup victory.

"Every single thing that I could do to be faster, I did," said Vonn after winning the downhill event. "And now, now this is what happens. You get the reward."

Vonn is continuing to rack up the rewards, claiming podium finishes in four of the five total races she's competed in so far this season, earning another second-place downhill finish in St. Moritz before taking third in both downhill and the Super G in Val-d'Isère, France, last weekend.

As for her fifth World Cup race, Vonn clocked in at a still-impressive fourth.

"Four podiums in five races, I couldn't really be any happier," the Olympic gold medalist said in response.

Those finishes have the US ski legend sitting at No. 1 in the World Cup downhill standings and No. 3 in the Super-G — with her downhill ranking putting her far enough ahead to guarantee Vonn one of the four Team USA roster spots at the 2026 Olympics.

"Lindsey qualifying for the 2026 Olympic team is a testament to her resilience and dedication," said US Ski & Snowboard president and CEO Sophie Goldschmidt, confirming Vonn's Team USA qualification in a Tuesday statement. "She's proven once again that elite performance isn't just about past success, it's about rising to the moment, race after race."

USA ski star Lindsey Vonn tops the St. Moritz Alpine World Cup podium between second-place Magdalena Egger and thrid-place Mirjam Puchner in December 2025.
Lindsey Vonn won her 83rd World Cup title — and first since March 2018 — this month. (Alain Grosclaude/Agence Zoom/Getty Images)

Success spurs Vonn to extend final competitive season

Returning to competitive skiing in November 2024 following her retirement in February 2019, Vonn spent part of her five-year hiatus undergoing and recovering from a titanium knee replacement that ultimately returned her to the slopes.

Though Vonn previously planned to retire immediately after February's Winter Games in Cortina, Italy, she's now setting her sights on completing the World Cup circuit in March — though that will officially be the end of the road for the US icon.

"I feel like I'm rolling the dice enough as it is, being 41 and putting myself through this," Vonn told The Athletic. "So this is a one-season, final season."

That said, she'll look to add to her trio of Olympic medals before hanging up her competitive skis.

"For Cortina, things are looking pretty f—ing awesome."

Injury-Laden South Carolina Basketball Adds Pro French Player to Roster

Tango Bourges Basket forward Alicia Tournebize boxes out Spar Girona center Lola Pendande during a 2025 Euro League basketball game.
French pro Alicia Tournebize will join South Carolina after the holiday break as the No. 3 Gamecocks battle injuries. (David Pastor Andres/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Image)

The No. 3 South Carolina Gamecocks are calling in roster reinforcements, announcing Monday that French forward Alicia Tournebize will join the NCAA basketball team after the holidays.

"Alicia has an incredible skill set and basketball IQ," South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley said in a news release. "She has great touch around the rim, can shoot it out to the 3-point line and is a shot blocker."

While they've only dropped one game so far this season, the Gamecocks' roster has been running thin due to injuries — including losing star forward Chloe Kitts to a season-ending ACL injury in October.

With the continued absence of forward Ashlyn Watkins, who is out this season as she continues to rehab a January ACL tear, South Carolina has suffered additional temporary roster losses this month as injuries forced forward Madina Okot and guard Agot Makeer into concussion protocol.

Though Okot, who is currently averaging a double-double, returned to play last Thursday, Makeer remains out, as the Gamecocks and their traditionally deep bench continue a 2025/26 campaign that's seen just three games played with a healthy 10-player roster.

The midseason signing of Tournebize will add both depth and height to bolster South Carolina, as the 6-foot-7 freshman rivals Chicago Sky forward Kamilla Cardoso as one of Staley's tallest-ever players.

The 18-year-old daughter of French basketball Hall of Famer Isabelle Fijalkowski — one of the inaugural WNBA players for the Cleveland Rockers — is already making a name for herself in Europe, leading the France's youth squad in both scoring and rebounding as they claimed bronze at last summer's 2025 FIBA U18 EuroBasket.

Tournebize also packs professional experience, coming to Columbia from French club Tango Bourges Basket.

The young star will likely make her NCAA debut as South Carolina kicks off SEC conference play in early 2026.

TCU Rises, Iowa Falls as AP Top 25 Women’s Basketball Poll Shifts in Week 8

Iowa head coach Jan Jensen talks to her team in a huddle during a 2025/26 NCAA basketball game.
The No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes are currently 1-2 against ranked opponents this season. (Elsa/Getty Images)

Monday's AP Top 25 Poll featured few dramatics, as the Week 8 tally reflected another consistent slate from the 2025/26 NCAA basketball elite with only one shift in the Top 10 and marginal movement at the bottom.

Undefeated TCU keeps making gains, rising one spot to tie Oklahoma at No. 8 after taking down Big 12 foe Kansas State 77-55 behind senior guard Olivia Miles's 29-point performance on Saturday.

On the other hand, a 90-64 loss to No. 1 UConn on Saturday saw Iowa skid three spots, with the now-No. 14 Hawkeyes falling to a 1-2 record against ranked opponents this season.

Outside the relatively stationary Top 10, some blue chip programs are threatening to exit the AP Poll entirely after dropping ranked games last weekend.

Baylor experienced the greatest slide, dropping seven spots to No. 22 after falling 61-60 to Big 12 rival and rankings newcomer No. 21 Texas Tech on Sunday — the Bears' third loss in their season's four ranked games so far.

Tennessee saw a similar dip, plummeting six spots to No. 23 after losing to a surging No. 13 Louisville 89-65 on Saturday.

How to watch Top 25 NCAA basketball this week

The ranked action returns on Sunday, as No. 4 UCLA visits No. 19 Ohio State at 2 PM ET, live on the Big Ten Network.

2025/26 AP Top 25 Women's College Basketball Poll: Week 8

1. UConn (12-0, Big East)
2. Texas (14-0, SEC)
3. South Carolina (12-1, SEC)
4. UCLA (11-1, Big Ten)
5. LSU (13-0, SEC)
6. Michigan (10-1, Big Ten)
7. Maryland (13-0, Big Ten)
T8. TCU (13-0, Big 12)
T8. Oklahoma (12-1, SEC)
10. Iowa State (13-0, Big 12)
11. Kentucky (12-1, SEC)
12. Vanderbilt (12-0, SEC)
13. Louisville (12-3, ACC)
14. Iowa (10-2, Big Ten)
15. Ole Miss (12-2, SEC)
16. UNC (11-3, ACC)
17. USC (9-3, Big Ten)
18. Notre Dame (9-2, ACC)
19. Ohio State (11-1, Big Ten)
20. Nebraska (12-0, Big Ten)
21. Texas Tech (14-0, Big 12)
22. Baylor (11-3, Big 12)
23. Tennessee (8-3, SEC)
24. Michigan State (11-1, Big Ten)
25. Princeton (12-1, Ivy)

Report: NWSL Teams Target Chelsea Forward Catarina Macario

Chelsea FC attacker Catarina Macario poses in her WSL kit.
USWNT attacker Catarina Macario's current contract with Chelsea FC expires on July 1st, 2026. (Karl Bridgeman - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

USWNT star Catarina Macario could be on the move, with ESPN reporting Monday that numerous interested NWSL teams may make a play for the 26-year-old Chelsea FC forward in 2026.

Macario's contract with the reigning six-time WSL champions expires on July 1st, though FIFA regulations allow her to sign with a new club as early as January, with other European clubs expected to join hopeful NWSL teams in the race.

Despite leading the USWNT with eight goals in 2025, Macario did not dress for Chelsea's recent UWCL league-phase finale against Wolfsburg last week, with the attacker starting just six of the Blues' 11 WSL matches so far this season.

Should an NWSL club make an offer, its viability could hinge on the league's current salary cap dispute, with the Board of Governors suggesting the adoption of a "High Impact Player" rule to help teams keep or attract big names.

However, the NWSL Players Association came out against the mechanism last week, pushing instead to raise the overall cap to match any potential special relief.

Though a Macario NWSL deal is mere speculation at the moment, leagues on both sides of the Atlantic are beginning to grapple with the demands of retaining or drawing top talent in the increasingly competitive — and expensive — global women's game.