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WNBA betting guide: Keep an eye on Sabrina Ionescu and the Liberty

(Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)

Another week of WNBA action is in the books, and the betting world continues to give us plenty to talk about.

This past week had both the lowest and the highest over/under for a game this season — 150 in last Tuesday’s Atlanta-Seattle game and 177 in Saturday’s contest between Las Vegas and Los Angeles — and it also gave us the Liberty’s first win against the spread as road favorites in over four years.

With those highlights in mind, let’s dive into the week in WNBA betting.

Team trends

Liberty rolling

In May, the Liberty were arguably the best fade in the league. Now, they may be the best bet. The addition of Crystal Dangerfield has allowed Sabrina Ionescu to spend some of her minutes off the ball, and it’s done wonders both for Ionescu and the team.

Statistically, the newly-minted Eastern Conference Player of the Week has done a complete 180 since the calendar flipped to June. Ionescu has essentially doubled her May averages in scoring, 3-pointers per game and free throws per game, while sinking over 44 percent of her triples and all 29 of her free throws so far this month.

As you might expect, this individual breakthrough has directly coincided with a team turnaround. Since inserting Dangerfield into the starting lineup to begin the month, New York has gone from the league’s worst net rating to its best. They even pulled the biggest upset of the season when they took down Washington as 12-point underdogs on June 3.

Fever getting on the board first

In our last betting piece, we talked about BetMGM’s “first to score” prop bets. These generally only take into account the strength of each team overall, not the strength of each team’s center at winning jump balls.

Because of this, we can use jump ball data to our advantage. The Fever in particular present an interesting case. Despite owning one of the worst win-loss records in the league, Indiana is scoring first at a remarkable rate. The Fever are the only team in the WNBA to score first 11 times already this season.

While it helps that the Fever have played more games than some teams, they are even in the top three in percentage, having scored first in 68.8 percent of their games. Only the Sun and the Storm have done it more frequently.

Mystics’ second quarters

We’ve devoted plenty of words to the Mystics and their propensity for unders this season — their slow pace and elite defense have made it tough for sportsbooks to adjust their totals low enough.

Washington’s 11-4 record on unders in full games is the best in the league, but it’s nothing compared to their record on second-quarter unders. In 15 Mystics games this season, the second-quarter under has hit an incredible 14 times. If you bet on the under in every Mystics second quarter so far, you’d be nearly undefeated.

Even when they combined for 180 against the Wings, or 173 against the Sky, or 189 on Sunday against the Mercury, the second quarter still went under. There’s bound to be regression at some point, but ride this trend for as long as you can.

League trends

Checking on trends we’ve been monitoring

So far, we’ve been keeping an eye on back-to-back unders, fourth-quarter unders and live second-quarter unders.

Back-to-back unders and fourth-quarter unders continue to sit around 50-50, so it may be that books are finally making adjustments after last season. They haven’t quite figured out those second quarters though — after a first quarter goes over, the second quarter is still going under over 60 percent of the time.

Combined with the Mystics’ extreme low-scoring second quarters, any high-scoring Mystics first quarter should be an automatic trigger to open your sportsbook app and bet the under on the next quarter.

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Elena Delle Donne has been sitting out some Mystics games while she works her way back to full strength. (Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)

Late player availability updates

Usually, the earlier you can get your bets in, the better. With lines now being posted the night before, if you can place your wagers before you go to bed you can often get a better line before the lines move the day of the game.

However, there have been some exceptions to that this season. Because of the lingering effects of the pandemic, there have been occasions where a player is ruled out seemingly out of nowhere mere hours before tip. Most notably, it happened to Breanna Stewart earlier this season, but other players such as Sophie Cunningham, Natasha Cloud and Marina Mabrey have been affected.

Even aside from COVID-19, this type of thing happens in rare instances, such as Elena Delle Donne being ruled out on Sunday after carrying a probable tag into the game (she was the first probable player this season who didn’t end up playing). But the health and safety protocols have increased the frequency of last-minute scratches, so there has been some value in waiting on your bets.

Sportsbooks are doing a much better job this season of updating lines shortly after news breaks. Last season, there were times when odds didn’t change for hours even after a player as important as Candace Parker or Brittney Griner was ruled out. Sportsbooks are now moving their lines within minutes, not hours, of availability news. (That books are putting this effort in is also a great sign of progress in the game.)

Nonetheless, there’s still a small window to bet on a game after player news comes out before the lines move. As long as we’re still dealing with COVID-19 in any form, it may make more sense for those who are really on top of things throughout the day to wait on putting any money down until closer to tip.

Futures update

Here are FanDuel’s biggest movers of the last two weeks.

Stock up: Aces (+200 previous to +115 current)

It says a lot about the Aces that their stock increased the most despite already being the favorites. Even without Jackie Young for the last several days, Las Vegas has raised its value.

It’s also noteworthy to see a number as low as +115 before the halfway point of the season. If that number hits +100, the Aces will have a 50 percent implied probability of winning the championship, a mark we don’t typically see any team hit until after the playoffs have started.

From their three legitimate MVP candidates, to their league-best 9-4 record against the spread, to their ever-rising title chances, there are all sorts of ways to use betting odds to tell the same story: The Aces are flat-out awesome.

Stock down: Mercury (+1000 previous to +4100 current)

As the season has gone on, it’s become more and more apparent that Phoenix just doesn’t have a championship-level defense without Brittney Griner. The superstar backcourt of Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith, alongside Tina Charles in the middle, can win the Mercury games on the right night, but this team doesn’t have the interior resistance to consistently compete with the league’s top tier right now.

Even Phoenix’s opponents would welcome an improvement in that department if it meant getting Griner back home safely before season’s end. For now, it’s tough to consider Phoenix as a contender for anything more than a backend playoff spot.

Best bets tonight

Washington -6.5 vs. Phoenix

Let’s run this one back. It looked like Washington had a good shot at clearing this line on Sunday, then Delle Donne was unexpectedly ruled out just a couple of hours before tip. She’s probable again for this one, but it would be extremely surprising if she didn’t play. As long as she’s on the floor, look for Mike Thibault to make adjustments from Sunday’s loss and the Mystics to win comfortably in a revenge game.

Phoenix vs. Washington under 165.5

The total for the first leg of this back-to-back closed at 160, so we’re getting an extra 5.5 points just based on how high-scoring Sunday’s contest was. That’s an overreaction to a single game. Whether the back-to-back under effect is still around or not, this line is far too high for any Mystics game. And, of course, if you have access to a book with quarter unders, take the second-quarter under here as long as it’s at least 40.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Washington Spirit Star Croix Bethune Is Ready for “Rowdy Audi”

Croix Bethune #7 of the Washington Spirit reacts before the NWSL game against the Orlando Pride at Audi Field on October 18, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Washington Spirit midfielder Croix Bethune registered two goals and two assists over 20 regular-season games played this year. (Scott Taetsch/NWSL via Getty Images)

The first time Washington Spirit midfielder Croix Bethune experienced an NWSL playoff game at DC's "Rowdy Audi" Field, it was from the sidelines. The promising young star had experienced a major setback, injuring her MCL while throwing out the ceremonial first pitch at nearby Nationals Park — just weeks after winning Olympic gold with the USWNT. "

"Sitting in the stands watching the game wasn't ideal," she told JWS this week. "But it was still very fun and very cool, just to have that whole experience, seeing Audi full and rowdy and the fans just very excited."

Bethune's changing fortunes — she'd go on to win both 2024 Rookie of the Year and Midfielder of the Year despite her late-August season-ending injury — underlined a 2024 season of extremes for the Spirit. Washington finished second in the NWSL standings, entering the postseason confident before ultimately ceding the championship game to Shield-winners Orlando.

This year, the club is hoping to finish the job, once again locked into second place and hunting the franchise's second NWSL title. And for Bethune and her teammates, the sense of deja vu is palpable.

Fans cheer on Croix Bethune and the Washington Spirit at Audi Field during a 2025 NWSL match.
Bethune and the Spirit hold home-field advantage for the NWSL playoffs opening match. (Hannah Foslien/NWSL via Getty Image)

The Spirit emerges from a season of constant change

The Spirit underwent their second midseason coaching change in two years this past June, when manager Jonatan Giraldez left to take over fellow Michele Kang-owned club, France's OL Lyonnes. Adrián González — last season's interim coach — reclaimed the team's top leadership role, guiding the Spirit to their second straight No. 2 finish in a surprising show of consistency for a club undergoing significant change.

"Things happen, not everything is permanent," Bethune said plainly, commenting on the staffing changes "I learned this in my college recruiting process: You don't pick a school for the coach, because the coach can always move."

And while Washington added significant depth over the course of 2025 — namely bringing on international standouts like Italy's Sofia Cantore and Nigeria's Gift Monday — the roster has struggled to overcome lingering injuries and absences. Bethune officially returned to play in April, registering two goals and two assists through 20 regular-season games, but overall availability has continued to plague the squad despite the training staff's best efforts.

Captain Andi Sullivan and starting outside back Casey Krueger are currently both on maternity leave. And superstar Trinity Rodman remains questionable after a freak knock to the knee in late October — two months after originally returning from a lengthy back injury.

Washington Spirit forward Trinity Rodman (2) celebrates after midfielder Croix Bethune (7) scores a goal in the first half against Seattle Reign FC at Audi Field.
Spirit stars Bethune and Rodman formed a tight on-pitch bond last NWSL season. (Amber Searls/USA TODAY Sports)

Bethune misses NWSL Decision Day as injury issues take a toll

Last Sunday's Decision Day loss to the eliminated Utah Royals saw even more attrition, with impact players Leicy Santos, Gift Monday, and Rose Kouassi all left off the gameday roster. Even Bethune missed Sunday's regular-season finale with a thigh injury, though she's now listed as available after training alongside club medical staff this week.

This is when experience facing adversity comes in handy for the 24-year-old. "When I'm playing, I feel like I can see everything, but when you're not playing, you can really see everything," she said, stressing the perspective she's gained from sitting on the sidelines. "Just seeing how the game should flow, or how it is flowing."

Bethune has also learned to avoid pushing her body too hard if she's not feeling 100%, a mantra that can be both frustrating and, at times, liberating.

"I feel like, over the years, I've done very well at understanding when my body is telling me something, and listening to that," she said.

Returning from injury is difficult for any player, but particularly for those as creative on the pitch as Bethune. Known for confidence on the ball, audacious passing vision in the midfield, and the ability to turn towards goal herself if she senses weakness, the Georgia grad became a household name last year thanks to a free-wheeling partnership with fellow USWNT standout Rodman.

It took some time for Bethune to re-find her footing this season, learning how to not overthink exactly what makes her such a special player.

"Feeling like myself is just feeling like Croix Bethune," she said. "Doing what I do — momentum, rhythm, cheekiness, just feeling smooth and calm in the game."

Croix Bethune #7 of the Washington Spirit interacts with fans after the NWSL game against the Orlando Pride at Audi Field on October 18, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Bethune and her Spirit teammates enjoyed record home crowds throughout the 2025 NWSL season. (Scott Taetsch/NWSL via Getty Images)

Bethune looks to lean on Spirit culture ahead of quarterfinal test

Shaky availability — and the related threat of yet again falling short of the NWSL title — still looms over the Spirit as they head into this weekend's quarterfinal matchup against an extra-motivated Racing Louisville. But Bethune thinks the Spirit can lean on their depth for that creative spark, as injured players inch closer to a healthy return with every passing day.

"We're big on our culture," she explained. "The culture that we have off the field, within the team, is very strong. And when we incorporate the staff and the coaches, we're all on the same page."

Even without a full-strength roster, the Spirit have shown an ability to bend without breaking, riding the ups and downs of a topsy-turvy season without slipping from the league's top ranks. And that level of togetherness can be difficult to derail.

"Versatility, being close — we have a lot of options," Bethune said of her team's postseason strategy. "We have a lot of people that can play a lot of different positions."

"Once we get that rhythm," she added, "it's pretty scary for the defense."

2025/26 PWHL Expansion Teams Seattle and Vancouver Reveal Names and Logos

A graphic announces the names and logos of incoming 2025/26 PWHL expansion teams Seattle Torrent and Vancouver Goldeneyes.
PWHL expansion sides Seattle Torrent and Vancouver Goldeneyes will drop the puck on their 2025/26 debuts at the end of November. (PWHL)

The two newest PWHL teams are re-introducing themselves this week, as the third-year league officially revealed the team names and branding for 2025/26 expansion sides Seattle Torrent and Vancouver Goldeneyes on Thursday.

"The Seattle Torrent and Vancouver Goldeneyes are bold, distinctive, and true to who we are as a league," PWHL EVP of business operations Amy Scheer said in a league statement. "Each team identity is deeply connected to its home — Seattle draws inspiration from the waterways that shape its landscape, and Vancouver from its abundance of unique wildlife."

While the Torrent's letter "S" evokes Seattle's waterways, Vancouver's branding utilizes a local city bird — the "fiercely protective Common Goldeneye" — for "its speed, strength, and precision in flight."

"The Goldeneyes name is powerful, bold, and tough," said Vancouver forward and local product Jenn Gardiner. "This identity is a perfect reflection of who we are, where we come from, and that we will be relentless to play against every single night."

While the PWHL always planned to unveil the expansion sides' individual identities ahead of the 2025/26 season, both teams will still follow suit from the league's inaugural year by sporting generic PWHL branding throughout their debut campaigns.

In what Scheer calls "the start of an incredible Pacific Northwest rivalry," both the visiting Seattle Torrent and host Vancouver Goldeneyes will make their PWHL debuts against each other when the puck drops on the league's third season on Friday, November 21st.

How to purchase Seattle Torrent and Vancouver Goldeneyes merch

While the Torrent and Goldeneyes will don generic jerseys this season, fully branded merchandise for the 2025/26 PWHL expansion teams hit the league's online shop for fans to purchase on Thursday.

New Offseason League Project B Threatens WNBA with Multimillion Dollar Salaries

Seattle Storm star Nneka Ogwumike looks up during a 2025 WNBA Playoffs game.
Seattle Storm star Nneka Ogwumike became the first WNBA player to sign with offseason upstart Project B earlier this week. (David Becker/NBAE via Getty Images)

New offseason league Project B is raising more than eyebrows, with the international upstart reportedly far exceeding WNBA salaries as it builds out its pro women's basketball roster ahead of a planned 2026 debut.

According to Front Office Sports (FOS), Project B is offering athletes like inaugural signee Nneka Ogwumike multimillion dollar salaries, with indications that multi-year deals could see paydays reach upwards of eight figures.

Project B also gave the Seattle Storm star equity in the venture, putting WNBA stakeholders on edge as CBA negotiations continue to simmer Stateside.

Sources also reportedly told FOS that the budding league has already signed additional WNBA players.

While the winter league's F1-style tournament structure doesn't directly compete with the WNBA calendar, history shows that players will sometimes de-prioritized domestic league play if offered enough money to compete overseas.

One of the most notable instances of this occurred when now-retired superstar Diana Taurasi sat out the entire 2015 WNBA season after top EuroLeague side UMMC Ekaterinburg paid her $1.5 million to forgo that summer's competition.

Other offseason leagues are also making financial inroads that supersede the WNBA's current salary offerings, with 54 WNBA players set to take the Unrivaled 3×3 court in the winter league's 2026 season in January — including equity-holder Paige Bueckers.

Even more, big names like four-time WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson, 2024 Rookie of the Year Caitlin Clark, 2024 champion Sabrina Ionescu, and two-time All-Star Angel Reese opted out of joining the 2026 Unrivaled season, leaving some speculating that seven-figure deals could see those stars instead eyeing a jump to Project B.

Ultimately, the reports of additional options for lucrative offseason contracts only increases the drama surrounding the US league's ongoing CBA negotiations, putting even more pressure on the WNBA to offer an attractive financial agreement to its athletes.

USC Basketball Star JuJu Watkins Invests in NWSL Club Boston Legacy

USC women's basketball star JuJu Watkins smiles while watching a 2025 USC football game.
USC basketball star JuJu Watkins is the first NCAA player to directly invest in a professional sports team. (Luke Hales/Getty Images)

Despite missing the 2025/26 NCAA basketball season due to injury, USC superstar JuJu Watkins is staying busy, with the junior guard buying into 2026 NWSL expansion side Boston Legacy FC's investment group this week.

Besides padding her portfolio, the move also sees Watkins make history as the first-ever NCAA athlete to actively invest in a professional women's sports franchise.

"Boston Legacy FC is creating a space for women to achieve, lead, and inspire others at the highest level," Watkins said in a Thursday club press release. "I'm proud to be part of the movement pushing women's sports forward."

The 20-year-old reigning Naismith Player of the Year now joins a Boston Legacy investment core that includes the likes of Indiana Fever center Aliyah Boston and Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams as well as three-time Olympic gold medal-winning gymnast Aly Raisman and actor Elizabeth Banks.

"JuJu's investment marks a groundbreaking moment for women's sports and the power of NIL," said Legacy owner Jennifer Epstein. "She's showing that today's student-athletes aren't just building their own brands — they're shaping the future of the game."

How to become a part of Boston Legacy FC history

Fans looking to take part in NWSL history can snag seats to the first-ever Boston Legacy match at 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, March 14, 2026.

Tickets to the expansion club's debut are currently on sale at BostonLegacyFC.com.