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WNBA betting guide: Keep an eye on Sabrina Ionescu and the Liberty

(Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)

Another week of WNBA action is in the books, and the betting world continues to give us plenty to talk about.

This past week had both the lowest and the highest over/under for a game this season — 150 in last Tuesday’s Atlanta-Seattle game and 177 in Saturday’s contest between Las Vegas and Los Angeles — and it also gave us the Liberty’s first win against the spread as road favorites in over four years.

With those highlights in mind, let’s dive into the week in WNBA betting.

Team trends

Liberty rolling

In May, the Liberty were arguably the best fade in the league. Now, they may be the best bet. The addition of Crystal Dangerfield has allowed Sabrina Ionescu to spend some of her minutes off the ball, and it’s done wonders both for Ionescu and the team.

Statistically, the newly-minted Eastern Conference Player of the Week has done a complete 180 since the calendar flipped to June. Ionescu has essentially doubled her May averages in scoring, 3-pointers per game and free throws per game, while sinking over 44 percent of her triples and all 29 of her free throws so far this month.

As you might expect, this individual breakthrough has directly coincided with a team turnaround. Since inserting Dangerfield into the starting lineup to begin the month, New York has gone from the league’s worst net rating to its best. They even pulled the biggest upset of the season when they took down Washington as 12-point underdogs on June 3.

Fever getting on the board first

In our last betting piece, we talked about BetMGM’s “first to score” prop bets. These generally only take into account the strength of each team overall, not the strength of each team’s center at winning jump balls.

Because of this, we can use jump ball data to our advantage. The Fever in particular present an interesting case. Despite owning one of the worst win-loss records in the league, Indiana is scoring first at a remarkable rate. The Fever are the only team in the WNBA to score first 11 times already this season.

While it helps that the Fever have played more games than some teams, they are even in the top three in percentage, having scored first in 68.8 percent of their games. Only the Sun and the Storm have done it more frequently.

Mystics’ second quarters

We’ve devoted plenty of words to the Mystics and their propensity for unders this season — their slow pace and elite defense have made it tough for sportsbooks to adjust their totals low enough.

Washington’s 11-4 record on unders in full games is the best in the league, but it’s nothing compared to their record on second-quarter unders. In 15 Mystics games this season, the second-quarter under has hit an incredible 14 times. If you bet on the under in every Mystics second quarter so far, you’d be nearly undefeated.

Even when they combined for 180 against the Wings, or 173 against the Sky, or 189 on Sunday against the Mercury, the second quarter still went under. There’s bound to be regression at some point, but ride this trend for as long as you can.

League trends

Checking on trends we’ve been monitoring

So far, we’ve been keeping an eye on back-to-back unders, fourth-quarter unders and live second-quarter unders.

Back-to-back unders and fourth-quarter unders continue to sit around 50-50, so it may be that books are finally making adjustments after last season. They haven’t quite figured out those second quarters though — after a first quarter goes over, the second quarter is still going under over 60 percent of the time.

Combined with the Mystics’ extreme low-scoring second quarters, any high-scoring Mystics first quarter should be an automatic trigger to open your sportsbook app and bet the under on the next quarter.

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Elena Delle Donne has been sitting out some Mystics games while she works her way back to full strength. (Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)

Late player availability updates

Usually, the earlier you can get your bets in, the better. With lines now being posted the night before, if you can place your wagers before you go to bed you can often get a better line before the lines move the day of the game.

However, there have been some exceptions to that this season. Because of the lingering effects of the pandemic, there have been occasions where a player is ruled out seemingly out of nowhere mere hours before tip. Most notably, it happened to Breanna Stewart earlier this season, but other players such as Sophie Cunningham, Natasha Cloud and Marina Mabrey have been affected.

Even aside from COVID-19, this type of thing happens in rare instances, such as Elena Delle Donne being ruled out on Sunday after carrying a probable tag into the game (she was the first probable player this season who didn’t end up playing). But the health and safety protocols have increased the frequency of last-minute scratches, so there has been some value in waiting on your bets.

Sportsbooks are doing a much better job this season of updating lines shortly after news breaks. Last season, there were times when odds didn’t change for hours even after a player as important as Candace Parker or Brittney Griner was ruled out. Sportsbooks are now moving their lines within minutes, not hours, of availability news. (That books are putting this effort in is also a great sign of progress in the game.)

Nonetheless, there’s still a small window to bet on a game after player news comes out before the lines move. As long as we’re still dealing with COVID-19 in any form, it may make more sense for those who are really on top of things throughout the day to wait on putting any money down until closer to tip.

Futures update

Here are FanDuel’s biggest movers of the last two weeks.

Stock up: Aces (+200 previous to +115 current)

It says a lot about the Aces that their stock increased the most despite already being the favorites. Even without Jackie Young for the last several days, Las Vegas has raised its value.

It’s also noteworthy to see a number as low as +115 before the halfway point of the season. If that number hits +100, the Aces will have a 50 percent implied probability of winning the championship, a mark we don’t typically see any team hit until after the playoffs have started.

From their three legitimate MVP candidates, to their league-best 9-4 record against the spread, to their ever-rising title chances, there are all sorts of ways to use betting odds to tell the same story: The Aces are flat-out awesome.

Stock down: Mercury (+1000 previous to +4100 current)

As the season has gone on, it’s become more and more apparent that Phoenix just doesn’t have a championship-level defense without Brittney Griner. The superstar backcourt of Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith, alongside Tina Charles in the middle, can win the Mercury games on the right night, but this team doesn’t have the interior resistance to consistently compete with the league’s top tier right now.

Even Phoenix’s opponents would welcome an improvement in that department if it meant getting Griner back home safely before season’s end. For now, it’s tough to consider Phoenix as a contender for anything more than a backend playoff spot.

Best bets tonight

Washington -6.5 vs. Phoenix

Let’s run this one back. It looked like Washington had a good shot at clearing this line on Sunday, then Delle Donne was unexpectedly ruled out just a couple of hours before tip. She’s probable again for this one, but it would be extremely surprising if she didn’t play. As long as she’s on the floor, look for Mike Thibault to make adjustments from Sunday’s loss and the Mystics to win comfortably in a revenge game.

Phoenix vs. Washington under 165.5

The total for the first leg of this back-to-back closed at 160, so we’re getting an extra 5.5 points just based on how high-scoring Sunday’s contest was. That’s an overreaction to a single game. Whether the back-to-back under effect is still around or not, this line is far too high for any Mystics game. And, of course, if you have access to a book with quarter unders, take the second-quarter under here as long as it’s at least 40.

Calvin Wetzel is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports, covering basketball and betting. He also contributes to Her Hoop Stats, CBS SportsLine and FiveThirtyEight. Follow him on Twitter at @cwetzel31.

Seattle Storm Surges up the WNBA Standings Off Weekend Wins

Seattle Storm players Skylar Diggins and Nneka Ogwumike laugh during a 2025 WNBA game.
The Seattle Storm took down both the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty last weekend. (Jeff Bottari/NBAE via Getty Images)

The biggest victors in the WNBA last weekend were the Seattle Storm, as the fifth-place contenders took down the last two league champions to record six wins in their last seven games.

The Storm first took down 2022 and 2023 champs Las Vegas 90-83 on Friday before toppling reigning title-winners New York 89-79 on Sunday.

Guard Skylar Diggins and forward Nneka Ogwumike powered Seattle's two games, putting up 44 and 51 points, respectively, over the weekend.

Forward Gabby Williams also helped fuel the Storm's weekend with two double-double performances.

Seattle is now just one game behind the similarly surging fourth-place Atlanta Dream, while trailing the red-hot No. 3 Phoenix Mercury by 1.5 games.

"Staying ready is what the group is," Storm head coach Noelle Quinn told reporters on Friday. "They're professionals, they're vets."

Teams at the top of the WNBA standings aren't the only squads that saw weekend success, as the No. 6 Golden State Valkyries snagged their second win in a row with Sunday's 87-63 thrashing of the last-place Connecticut Sun.

Despite registering Friday losses, both No. 7 Las Vegas and the No. 9 Washington Mystics finished the weekend on a high note, earning big Sunday wins over the No. 8 Indiana Fever and No. 12 Dallas Wings, respectively.

How to watch the Seattle Storm this week

The Storm will suit back up for another tricky WNBA test on Tuesday, when Seattle hosts the always-dangerous Indiana Fever at 10 PM ET.

The game will air live on NBA TV.

WNBA Injuries, Absences Fuel New York Liberty Losing Streak

New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart gestures questioningly during a 2025 WNBA game.
A short-staffed New York squad fell to Seattle on Sunday. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

The reigning champion New York Liberty battled through injury and absences over the weekend, narrowly retaining their second-place spot in the WNBA standings despite seeing their losing streak extend to two games with Sunday's 89-79 stumble against the Seattle Storm.

Already missing starting guard Leonie Fiebich, who is overseas competing at the 2025 FIBA EuroBasket tournament, the Liberty also played without center Jonquel Jones and guard Sabrina Ionescu.

While Ionescu is day-to-day with a neck issue, Jones will miss four to six weeks of action due to an ankle injury, the team announced on Saturday.

Despite dropping three of their last four matchups, the champs appear to be taking their recent downturn in stride.

"This isn't going to be the hardest thing that we face all season," said forward Breanna Stewart after Sunday's loss. "We have to kind of embrace the adversity a little bit, whether it's we're down players or things happen in the middle of the game."

New York wasn't the only team in trouble this weekend, though, as the Indiana Fever followed up last Thursday's stumble against the Golden State Valkyries with an 89-81 Sunday loss to the Las Vegas Aces.

Fever guard Caitlin Clark is now one-for-17 from behind the arc in her last two games, as Indiana struggles to break out of their eighth-place standing.

How to watch the New York Liberty this week

New York will hope for added firepower in order to snap their losing streak on Wednesday, when they'll face a rising Golden State squad at 10 PM ET.

Coverage of the game will air live on WNBA League Pass.

Louisville Grabs Momentum as NWSL Races Into Midseason Break

Racing Louisville teammates celebrate a goal by Arin Wright during a 2025 NWSL match.
Racing Louisville enters the midseason NWSL break at No. 7 on the table. (Jeff Dean/NWSL via Getty Images)

The NWSL is officially taking a breather, with the league kicking off the 2025 extended summer break after a roller-coaster weekend slate.

With half the of the 26-match regular season in the books, the No. 1 Kansas City Current extended their lead on the NWSL table to a towering eight points after defeating No. 11 Angel City 1-0 on Friday.

Helping balloon Kansas City's lead was No. 7 Racing Louisville, who kept No. 2 Orlando from claiming any points by securing a 2-0 upset win over the Pride on Friday.

With wins in five of their last seven matches, Louisville's refreshed roster has Racing entering the 2025 summer break with a 6-5-2 NWSL record, as the 2021 expansion side zeros in on a franchise-first playoff run.

"It's all about us. We're not really focused on the other team like we did a little last year," said midfielder Taylor Flint. "What are we going to do — what's our identity? I think that's a huge part of how we've been winning all these games."

On the other end of the table, the bottom four NWSL teams — Angel City, the No. 12 Houston Dash, No. 13 Chicago Stars, and No. 14 Utah Royals — will be looking for a major midseason reboot, after none managed to register a single win in the last five matchdays.

"We go from here, we break now, recharge, and we will be a very difficult opponent for a lot of teams in the second part of the season. That is our target now," said Angel City head coach Alexander Straus after Friday's loss.

There's still a lot left in 2025 NWSL play, with skidding teams banking on fresh starts while surging squads prepare to hit the ground running as soon as the season picks back up in August.

Australian Golfer Minjee Lee Wins KPMG Women’s PGA Championship

Minjee Lee holds the 2025 KPMG Women's PGA Championship trophy after her win.
Minjee Lee won the third major tournament title of her career on Sunday. (Darren Carroll/PGA of America via Getty Images)

Australian golfer Minjee Lee came out on top at the 2025 KPMG Women's PGA Championship, lifting the third major tournament trophy of her career on Sunday.

Entering the final round atop the leaderboard, Lee never relinquished the lead, finishing the tournament a solid three strokes ahead of the competition.

"I definitely was nervous starting the day," the 29-year-old acknowledged following her win. "I looked calm, but not as calm as everybody thinks."

The win earned Lee both an 18-spot rankings boost to world No. 6 and a $1.8 million cut of the event's $12 million prize pool.

Finishing the 2025 KPMG Women's PGA Championship just behind Lee in a second-place tie were 21-year-old Thai pro and new world No. 29 Chanettee Wannasaen and 24-year-old US standout and new No. 49 Auston Kim. Each took home $944,867 thanks to their four-day performances.

Kim, in particular, cobbled together a massive comeback run, chipping away at her nine-stroke deficit entering the competition's final round to claim the best finish of her young career.

"I'm very proud of what I did," the LPGA Tour sophomore said afterwards. "Obviously, the result was really good, but I'm really happy how I handled myself, my emotions, all the adversity. The course is playing really, really tough, but I feel like this week my team and I were very locked in."

Notably, the tournament's top three finishers were the only participants to finish below par, as the field struggled with a punishing week of both Texas heat and windier-than-usual conditions.

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