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WNBA playoff scenarios: Who will clinch the final spot?

(Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

With the WNBA playoffs fast approaching, there’s a three-way battle for the eighth and final playoff spot between the Washington Mystics, the New York Liberty and the Los Angeles Sparks.

Currently, FiveThirtyEight rates the Mystics’ chances of making the playoffs at 71 percent. The Sparks’ chances jumped up slightly to 11 percent following the Liberty’s loss to the Sun on Wednesday and their own win over the Dream on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Liberty’s chances dropped from 26 to 18 percent.

While the Mystics are clearly in charge of their own destiny, a loss on Friday could shake things up. Just Women’s Sports lays out the different scenarios that could result in any one of the three teams securing the final playoff spot.

Scenario 1: The Mystics defeat the Liberty

This is the scenario that seems the most likely. The Liberty are currently on an eight-game skid following a loss to the Connecticut Sun. Having won their past two games, the Mystics are holding onto the eighth and final playoff spot, sitting a half game ahead of the Sparks at 12-18.

The Mystics automatically clinch the final playoff spot with a win Friday night. Even if the Sparks win on Sunday, the Mystics beat them based on head-to-head since the Mystics went 2-1 against the Sparks this season.

If the Mystics also beat the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday, they could jump up to No. 7 and push the Dallas Wings into the eighth spot.

Scenario 2: The Mystics Lose their last two, Los Angeles wins Sunday

Los Angeles hasn’t missed the playoffs since 2011 and has only missed the playoffs four times in the league’s 25-year history. They’re still alive following a must-win victory on Thursday over the Atlanta Dream, but even if they win on Sunday they’re still on the outside looking in. They’ll be looking to the Mystics to lose their last two in order to make the playoffs.

Even if the Mystics jump the Wings, the Sparks lose in a tiebreaker with the Wings as well. Depending on how the Mystics-Liberty game goes, Sunday is a must-win game. Additionally, they have to hope Washington loses on Sunday in order to earn the eighth and final spot.

Scenario 3: The Mystics lose their last two, Los Angeles loses Sunday

The most wild of all the scenarios will become a possibility only if the Liberty can end their skid against Washington. If they win on Friday, and both the Mystics and the Sparks follow that up with a loss, the Liberty will make the playoffs.

With all three teams finishing at 12-20 in this scenario, the Liberty own the tiebreaker. In head-to-head matchups this season, the Liberty own a 3-2 record, with the Mystics 3-3 and the Sparks 2-3.

The Washington Mystics take on the New York Liberty on Friday at 7 p.m. ET.

US Tennis Stars Advance as Wimbledon Field Narrows

Italy's Jasmine Paolini celebrates her first-round win over Latvia's Anastasija Sevastova at the 2025 Wimbledon Championships
World No. 4 Jasmine Paolini fell in the second round of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships on Wednesday. (Daniel Kopatsch/Getty Images)

The 2025 Wimbledon Championships wrapped its second round on Thursday, with the grass court Grand Slam seeing just 15 of the tournament's 32 seeded players advance to the Friday and Saturday's third round.

A full half of the WTA's Top 10 players did not survive the week, with 2024 Wimbledon finalist and world No. 5 Jasmine Paolini joining four first-round star exits by falling to unseeded Kamilla Rakhimova in a three-set, second-round battle on Wednesday.

At the same time, unseeded fan favorites like Japan's No. 53 Naomi Osaka and England's own No. 40 Emma Raducanu secured third-round spots at the London Slam, joining top surviving contenders like No. 4 Iga Świątek and defending Wimbledon champion No. 16 Barbora Krejčíková.

Notably, a full five US players managed to move ahead, tied for the largest national contingent still standing at the tournament.

Led by 2025 Australian Open champion No. 8 Madison Keys, the US group also includes No. 10 Emma Navarro and No. 12 Amanda Anisimova, as well as unseeded players No. 54 Danielle Collins and No. 55 Hailey Baptiste.

With matches against Świątek and No. 7 Mirra Andreeva, respectively, Collins and Baptiste have a tough third round ahead — though Navarro's battle against the 2024 champ Krejčíková arguably headlines Saturday's slate.

US tennis star Emma Navarro eyes a return during a 2025 Wimbledon match.
US star Emma Navarro will face 2024 champ Barbora Krejčíková in Wimbledon's Round of 32. (Rob Newell/CameraSport via Getty Images)

How to watch Wimbledon this weekend

While world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is still holding strong in the dwindling field, this year's Wimbledon play is proving that the London Slam is anyone's to take, as the grass court humbles even the sport's top stars.

Expect the twists and turns to continue as tennis's best battle for spots in Sunday's Round of 16.

Round-of-32 Wimbledon play kicks off at 6 AM ET on Friday, with live continuous coverage of the tournament airing on ESPN.

Finland Opens Women’s Euro 2025 with Upset Upset Win Over Iceland

Finland's Katariina Kosola and Emma Koivisto celebrate a goal during their opening 2025 Euro match.
Finland earned a surprise 1-0 win over Iceland in their 2025 Euro opener on Wednesday. (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)

The 2025 European Championship is officially underway, as Euro action kicked off with a group-stage upset on Wednesday.

Though the 2025 UEFA tournament's opener was a sweltering affair amid a European heat wave, world No. 26 Finland prevailed, earning a 1-0 upset win over No. 14 Iceland in Group A.

Finnish winger Katariina Kosola played hero, curling in the winning goal in the match's 70th minute — just 12 minutes after Iceland midfielder Hildur Antonsdóttir picked up the competition's first red card.

"The result is important for our confidence," Kosola said after Finland's first major tournament win since the 2009 Euro. "It was the kind of goal I have been practicing a lot."

"It's terrible to lose and we feel frustrated," said Iceland head coach Thorsteinn Halldórsson. "It is an even group and we knew Finland were good, but our first half wasn't good enough."

Elsewhere, No. 16 Norway closed out Wednesday's slate on top of Group A, taking three points by defeating host No. 23 Switzerland in day's second match.

Led by captain and 2018 Ballon d'Or winner Ada Hegerberg — who pulled the match even with a second-half strike — Norway battled to a 2-1 comeback win, despite the Swiss side outshooting and out-possessing the Norwegians.

Spain jersey hang in lockers ahead of the team's 2025 Euro opening match against Portugal.
Reigning World Cup champions Spain will open their 2025 Euro account against Portugal. (Aitor Alcalde - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

How to watch this week's 2025 Euro action

Group B steals the 2025 Euro spotlight on Thursday.

While No. 13 Italy snagged a 1-0 opening win over No. 20 Belgium to kick off the day, 2023 World Cup champions and tournament favorite No. 2 Spain will face No. 22 Portugal at 3 PM ET.

Friday's Group C slate will pit No. 12 Denmark against No. 6 Sweden at 12 PM ET, before No. 3 Germany contends with No. 27 Poland at 3 PM ET.

Closing out the first group-stage matches will be arguably the toughest draw of the 2025 Euro pool.

Saturday's Group D slate features major tournament debutants No. 30 Wales against the No. 11 Netherlands at 12 PM ET, with No. 10 France taking on defending champions No. 5 England to cap the day at 3 PM ET.

Live coverage of 2025 Euro matches will air across Fox Sports platforms.

USWNT Caps Summer Friendlies with 3-0 Canada Shutout

Yazmeen Ryan, Michelle Cooper, Claire Hutton, Mandy McGlynn, and Izzy Rodriguez and the rest of the USWNT huddle after their July 2025 friendly win over Canada.
The USWNT finished the summer international window with 11 goals, conceding none, across three matches. (Brad Smith/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images)

The world No. 1 USWNT ruled the pitch on Wednesday night, shutting out North American rivals No. 8 Canada 3-0 to finish the international window on a high note.

Catching the Canada backline sleeping, US midfielder Sam Coffey opened the scoring at the 17-minute mark before 19-year-old Claire Hutton claimed her first-ever USWNT goal by heading in a Rose Lavelle corner kick in the game's 36th minute.

Houston Dash forward Yazmeen Ryan then padded the US tally in the waning minutes of the match, finding the back of the net just eight minutes after subbing onto the field.

Despite fielding a young roster, the US overpowered a veteran-heavy Canada side in almost every category, topping their Northern neighbors in shots, shots on target, possession, and — most notably — set pieces.

Canada ultimately couldn't match the game's mental pace or physical battle, as the USWNT scored all three goals off dead ball situations — a free kick, a corner kick, and a throw-in.

"It's not about the opponent," US head coach Emma Hayes said after the match. "It's about what we do, and I felt that was extremely dominant."

With Wednesday's contributions, the USWNT finishes the summer window with 11 goals scored across the three friendlies — and zero goals conceded.

The US now enters an extended break before reconvening for another as-yet-unannounced friendly series in October — but players will be expected to perform in the meantime.

"I said to the players in the end in the huddle, if you want to compete to win the biggest things, it's not what you do here that matters," said Hayes. "It's what you do when you go back to your club."

Seattle Storm Looks to Climb the WNBA Standings in Weekend Gauntlet

Seattle Storm star Nneka Ogwumike high-fives teammates as she's introduced before a 2025 WNBA game.
The No. 5 Seattle Storm will face No. 4 Atlanta and No. 3 New York this weekend. (Soobum Im/NBAE via Getty Images)

The 2025 WNBA regular season returns on Thursday night, with teams at the top of the league standings looking to prove their mettle against close competition across the long holiday weekend.

The No. 5 Seattle Storm have arguably the toughest weekend assignments, taking on the No. 4 Atlanta Dream on Friday before tackling the No. 3 New York Liberty on Sunday.

Four middle-of-the-pack teams will look to close in on a double-digit season win tally while the league's frontrunners strive to maintain their advantage in this weekend's slate:

  • No. 7 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 8 Indiana Fever, Thursday at 7 PM ET (Prime): Though still without star Caitlin Clark, the Fever hope to harness their 2025 WNBA Commissioner's Cup victory momentum against an Aces side tied with Indiana with an 8-8 season record.
  • No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Atlanta Dream, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): Seattle will look to make strides against a strong Atlanta side while putting last Sunday's stinging 84-57 loss to up-and-comer Golden State in their rearview.
  • No. 6 Golden State Valkyries vs. No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, Saturday at 8 PM ET (WNBA League Pass): The rising Valkyries must face a Lynx side hunting redemption, as the league-leaders look to bounce back from their stifling Tuesday Commissioner's Cup upset loss.
  • No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 3 New York Liberty, Sunday at 1 PM ET (CBS): With injured Liberty center Jonquel Jones still sidelined, the Seattle Storm will have a chance to steal a weekend game against the reigning champs, as New York struggles to re-find their footing.

With the 2025 WNBA All-Star break looming, early top performers must keep standards high if they want to hold the line when the season crosses the midway point.

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