In three short weeks, the 2022 NWSL regular season will be over.

Every team has played at least 17 of their 22 scheduled games. While two teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention, none have punched their tickets to the postseason, which begins with the quarterfinals on Oct. 15. The four teams remaining will meet in the semifinals on Oct. 22, a week before the championship game on Oct. 29 in Washington, D.C.

Six of the 10 teams still in contention will earn a spot in the playoffs, and the top two seeds will get a bye to the semis. Overall, the top and bottom six in the standings have remained consistent throughout the regular season. But the NWSL is notorious for chaos, so as always, anything can happen.

Here is where we think teams currently stand in the playoff race.

Bye clinchers

Portland Thorns FC

31 points, four games left (8-3-7)

The Thorns have been one of the NWSL’s most consistently dominant teams this year. A few uncharacteristic results at the end of August briefly knocked them off their rhythm. Now, they’re just one point behind the first-place Current in the race for the 2022 NWSL Shield. Boasting the best goal differential in the NWSL at +19 and the fewest losses, Portland’s strength and depth in all areas of the park could launch them back to the top by the end of September.

Kansas City Current

32 points, four games left (9-4-5)

The playoffs are inevitable for Kansas City, currently on a 13-game unbeaten streak and in first place on the NWSL table. Three of the Current’s four remaining opponents — the Chicago Red Stars, Washington Spirit and Racing Louisville — are in the bottom half of the league, putting Kansas City in a good position to close out the regular season on a strong note and win the Shield. They’ll need to win it outright since the Thorns and Wave, each just one point off the lead, have the tiebreaker advantage in goal differential — Portland’s +19 and San Diego’s +10 to Kansas City’s +2.

Locks

San Diego Wave FC

31 points, three games left (9-6-4)

Outside of a couple of weeks in the summer, the Wave have hung around the top of the standings for the entire season and are likely to be a top-three team by the end. Their fortress of a backline has helped goalkeeper Kailen Sheridan allow a league-low 15 goals this season. First-year head coach Casey Stoney has fostered an environment in which players aren’t faulted for making mistakes and can take risks to fulfill their potential. That includes star striker Alex Morgan, who leads the league with 15 goals in just 16 games.

OL Reign

28 points, four games left (7-4-7)

OL Reign have been holding onto a playoff spot for most of the season — while not a top-three team, they haven’t dropped below sixth. Their creative attack and roster depth make it hard to believe they’d fall outside of playoff contention at this point in the year. Their defense has posted six shutouts and allowed a league-low 18 goals. With 2021 Coach of the Year Laura Harvey in charge, the Reign will find a way.

Houston Dash

30 points, three games left (8-5-6)

The Dash are comfortably in fourth place with 30 points and should feel confident going into their final three matches of the regular season. In their previous meetings against their remaining opponents, the Dash defeated the Red Stars and OL Reign and tied the Spirit. Houston has been a goal-scoring machine all season, with 32 total, and continuously plays with the grit of a playoff-caliber team.

QUE GOALZO, @Maria17_7!!!!!#DejaloTodo pic.twitter.com/v3B1hwBZms

— Houston Dash (@HoustonDash) September 11, 2022

Sixth-spot contenders

Chicago Red Stars

27 points, four games left (7-5-6)

In the top half of the standings for most of the season, the Red Stars, on paper, are the most likely of the middle-of-the-pack teams to clinch a playoff spot. Angel City, with one fewer game played, is just one point behind Chicago and will be hungry to make the playoffs in the club’s first NWSL season. Turning the page on a shaky summer, the Red Stars have a tough four-game slate ahead of them, all against teams they didn’t beat in previous meetings.

Angel City FC

26 points, five games left (7-5-5)

No. 7 Angel City serves as a good example of just how tight this year’s playoff race is — the expansion club has two fewer wins and one more loss than the top-ranked Current. ACFC has had a tough time breaking out of the bottom six this year, but currently riding a five-game undefeated streak, they have momentum on their side as they try to finish the job.

North Carolina Courage

22 points, five games left (6-7-4)

With their transitional play and goal-scoring prowess, the Courage have the ability to shock everyone in the final weeks of the regular season. Their inconsistency on the scoresheet, however, makes it nearly impossible to predict which team will show up. The 2022 Challenge Cup champions either dominate games or they don’t. In a best-case scenario, their recent 5-1 win over Racing Louisville kickstarts a run to the postseason, for which they’ll need at least two more wins to be considered a serious contender.

The captain is happy the team put together a complete game just in time for the playoff push.@abbyerceg | #CourageUnitesUs pic.twitter.com/LVYyhPvIgy

— NC Courage (@TheNCCourage) September 11, 2022

Out

Orlando Pride

21 points, four games left (5-7-6)

The Pride’s odds of making the postseason are becoming slimmer by the week. While a win over Louisville in their next match is highly possible, they have three challenging games from there against North Carolina, San Diego and OL Reign to close out regular season. To claim the No. 6 spot, Orlando needs at least two wins and a draw as well as other results to fall into place. That is easier said than done, since the Pride haven’t won more than two consecutive games this season.

Washington Spirit

16 points, four games left (2-6-10)

On the bright side, the Spirit just won their first match since May 1 in a thrilling overtime contest with San Diego. On the other side, the reigning NWSL champions hadn’t won since May 1, and now they need a miracle to continue playing into October. Outside of winning all four of their remaining games to finish the regular season with 28 points, they need a lot of help. The sixth-place Stars would have to lose their last four matches, and Angel City would only be allowed a tie in their final five games. North Carolina and Orlando would also have to falter in the last few weeks.

See you next year

Racing Louisville FC

14 points, four games left (2-8-8)

Racing Louisville is officially out of playoff contention. Even if they win their final four games, their 26 total points wouldn’t be enough to pass No. 6 Chicago (27 points) and No. 7 Angel City (26 points). For the second year in a row, the 2021 expansion team will finish near the bottom of the table.

NJ/NY Gotham FC

12 points, four games left (4-14-0)

With their 1-0 loss to the Current on Sunday, Gotham FC was officially eliminated from playoff contention, closing the chapter on a season that started with much promise and ended in a coaching change and disappointment. With 12 points and four games left, Gotham can only hope to end the regular season with 24 points before looking ahead to next year.

Jessa Braun is a contributing writer at Just Women’s Sports covering the NWSL and USWNT. Follow her on Twitter @jessabraun.

In this week's episode of The Late Sub, host Claire Watkins gives a postmortem on this era of the Las Vegas Aces, before claiming the Liberty as WNBA championship frontrunners and prepping for Tuesday's Game 5 semifinal between the Lynx and the Sun.

Then, she chats about Orlando’s incredible run to the 2024 NWSL Shield, the individual NWSL records primed to fall, and aimlessness further down the league table.

The Late Sub with Claire Watkins brings you the latest news and freshest takes in women’s sports. This is the weekly rundown you’ve been missing, covering the USWNT, NWSL, WNBA, college hoops, and whatever else is popping off in women’s sports each week. Special guest appearances with the biggest names in women’s sports make The Late Sub a must-listen for every fan. Follow Claire on X/Twitter @ScoutRipley and subscribe to the Just Women’s Sports newsletter for more.

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After splitting their first four games, tonight's Game 5 semifinal will determine who will go on to face New York in the 2024 WNBA Finals: the Minnesota Lynx or the Connecticut Sun.

The two teams' best-of-five series has been the tightest of the 2024 postseason thus far. Both claimed one road win and one at home, and even the series score sheet is wildly close, with the Lynx putting up 321 points across the four games and the Sun posting 315.

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New WNBA season, same elimination game matchup

Tonight's tilt marks the pair's second-straight season competing in a winner-takes-all playoff showdown after the Sun beat the Lynx 90-75 in Game 3 of 2023's first round.

"At this point, you know each other inside and out," said Sun coach Stephanie White after Sunday's win. "It's about players making plays. It’s about the extra efforts. The hustle plays. It's about not being denied and finding something deep inside of you that allows you to come out on top."

Unlike the Lynx, the Sun have the added motivation of hunting a franchise-first WNBA championship. Minnesota, on the other hand, boasts four titles already, most recently in 2017.

It's something top-of-mind for veteran Sun forward DeWanna Bonner, who called the atmosphere in Minneapolis for Game 1 and 2 "absolutely insane."

"I can only imagine what it will be like in a Game 5. We know that," Bonner continued. "I wouldn’t tell the team anything other than focus in on each other. They have great fans, championship fans. They’ve won multiple championships. They’re hungry for another one."

Stats pave a complicated road to the Finals

To overcome Minnesota's hunger, Connecticut will likely defer to Sunday's winning formula. The return of guard Ty Harris from injury had an immediate impact, as did the Sun's performance behind the arc — Connecticut sank 53% of their three-pointers while the Lynx failed to crack 40%.

For their part, Minnesota will be aiming to stifle Connecticut's offense, which saw five Sun players score double-digits on Sunday.

"We have to get back to what got us in this position in the first place, which is our defense," noted Lynx star Napheesa Collier, the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year.

How to watch Sun vs. Lynx in Game 5 of the 2024 WNBA semifinals

The Sun and Lynx will tip off in Minneapolis at 8 PM ET tonight, with live broadcast and streaming coverage on ESPN2.

With three regular-season matches left, the still-undefeated Orlando Pride clinched the 2024 NWSL Shield with Sunday's rainy 2-0 win over the second-place Washington Spirit.

Marta converted the 57th-minute game-winning penalty kick, securing her team's first-ever piece of hardware with her eighth goal of the season.

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"I stayed here because I want to make history with this team," the Brazilian soccer icon, who's been with the Pride for eight years, said afterwards. "And then we did tonight, and then we go for more."

Though the Pride's dominance this season is unmatched, Washington was notably without several key players. Between injuries and yellow card suspensions, the Spirit faced Orlando without Trinity Rodman, Casey Krueger, Hal Hershfelt, Leicy Santos, or Ouleye Sarr.

Chawinga ties Kerr's NWSL scoring record

It took less than two minutes for Kansas City's Temwa Chawinga to find the back of the net in Saturday's 2-0 win over Louisville, tying former Chicago Red Star Sam Kerr's single-season NWSL scoring record with her 18th goal.

With three matchdays to go, the Malawian striker is all but guaranteed to upend Kerr's 2019 record.

"I think that Temwa's ability to get behind the line and then drive towards the goal, and being aggressive going towards the goal, is something that differentiates her," KC head coach Vlatko Andonovski said after the match. "Temwa's just a pure goalscorer. We're happy that she's done it for us this season and hopefully she continues to do it."

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Other noteworthy NWSL results

In other NWSL news, fifth-place North Carolina punched their postseason ticket with Saturday's 2-1 win over San Diego. The day before, last-place Houston become the first club eliminated from the 2024 playoff picture.

Gotham’s 5-1 Saturday blowout of Bay has the defending NWSL champs achingly close to leaping second-place Washington on the table. The two clubs are tied for points, with the Spirit's shrinking goal differential giving them the tenuous edge.

On the other hand, Saturday's 2-1 loss to 12th-place Utah extended Portland's NWSL winless streak to seven matches. The Thorns are remarkably still in seventh-place, but sit tied for points with eighth-place Bay FC. With lower-table teams hungry to rise above the postseason cutoff line, every match left could see Portland fall from contention.

Sunday's WNBA semifinals action saw top-seeded New York end back-to-back defending champion Las Vegas's season while the Connecticut Sun staved off elimination to force a deciding Game 5 against the Minnesota Lynx.

New York ends Aces' WNBA three-peat campaign

The Liberty claimed a second-straight trip to the WNBA Finals with Sunday's 76-62 victory​ over the Aces, ending to the defending champs' three-peat dream in four semifinal matchups.

After being held to just four points in Game 3, Sabrina Ionescu led the Liberty with 22 points. Teammate Breanna Stewart was just behind with a 19-point, 14-rebound double-double.

Though New York led nearly wire-to-wire, Las Vegas kept Game 4 within reach, thanks in large part to three-time MVP A'ja Wilson's 19 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks. The Aces trailed by just two points after three quarters, but a 16-2 fourth-quarter Liberty run ultimately earned them the win.

"They've been the best team all year — let's be real," Las Vegas head coach Becky Hammon said about New York after the game. "Their group earned it. They earned it all year."

Having walked away disappointed last season, New York — the only original franchise still playing without a title — knows that nothing is guaranteed in their upcoming sixth Finals appearance.

"We haven't done anything yet," a fired up Ionescu said after Sunday's win. "We're three wins away, and that’s really important to understand. We got to come out and we got to punch because nothing has been given to us yet."

How to watch the Liberty in the 2024 WNBA Finals

Game 1 of the best-of-five Finals tips off in Brooklyn at 8 PM ET on Thursday. Live coverage will air on ESPN.

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Connecticut forces winner-take-all Game 5 against Minnesota

After Friday's home-court loss to Minnesota, the Sun tied up their semifinal series with a come-from-behind 92-82 win on Sunday, forcing a winner-take-all Game 5.

Trailing by seven points at the break, Connecticut staged a second-half comeback. The Sun outscored the Lynx 49-32 to keep their first-ever WNBA title dream alive.

Ty Harris led Connecticut with a career-high 20 points in her post-injury return to the starting lineup. Four of her teammates also put up double-digits: Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner each had 18 points and eight rebounds, while DiJonai Carrington and Marina Mabrey added 15 and 10 points, respectively.

2024 Defensive Player of the Year Napheesa Collier, who led the Lynx with a 29-point, 13-rebound double-double, said her team needs to step it up when the series moves back to Minnesota on Tuesday.

"We have to go home and defend our home court. We're both playing for our lives, so we have to play with that level of intensity," Collier said after the loss.

How to watch Sun vs. Lynx in Game 5 of the 2024 WNBA semifinals

The Sun and Lynx will tip off Game 5 in Minneapolis at 8 PM ET on Tuesday. Live coverage will air on ESPN2.